Biofuels
23
1 Biofuels 1991 – 2011: A 20 Year History of Biofuels policy and the impact on the Recreational Marine Industry Thom Dammrich, NMMA
description
1991 – 2011: A 20 Year History of Biofuels policy and the impact on the Recreational Marine Industry Thom Dammrich, NMMA. Biofuels. Gasoline plus ethanol consumption. 1991 - 2001. Fuel Ethanol Consumption. % Ethanol in Gasoline Pool. 2. Source: Energy Information Administration. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Biofuels
1
Bio
fuel
s1991 – 2011: A 20 Year History of Biofuels policy and
the impact on the Recreational Marine Industry
Thom Dammrich, NMMA
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
14819
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Gas
oli
ne
plu
s E
than
ol
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
than
ol
Pro
du
ctio
n,
R
enew
able
Fu
el M
and
ate
and
%
eth
ano
l in
gas
oli
ne
po
ol
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol Consumption
RFS-II Quantities % ethanol in gasoline pool
2
1991
- 2
001 Gasoline plus ethanol
consumption
Fuel Ethanol Consumption
% Ethanol in Gasoline Pool
Source: Energy Information Administration
3
1995
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
14819
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Gas
oli
ne
plu
s E
than
ol
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
than
ol
Pro
du
ctio
n,
R
enew
able
Fu
el M
and
ate
and
%
eth
ano
l in
gas
oli
ne
po
ol
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol ConsumptionRFS-II Quantities % ethanol in gasoline poolMTBE Production
Clean Air Act 1990 Mandated the use of oxygenates (MTBE) for
reformulated fuels in non-attainment areas starting in 1995
MTBE Production
4
1995
- 2
001
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
14819
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Gas
oli
ne
plu
s E
than
ol
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
than
ol
Pro
du
ctio
n,
R
enew
able
Fu
el M
and
ate
and
%
eth
ano
l in
gas
oli
ne
po
ol
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol ConsumptionRFS-II Quantities % ethanol in gasoline poolMTBE Production
MTBE Phase-out begins
MTBE Production
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
14819
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Gas
oli
ne
plu
s E
than
ol
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
than
ol
Pro
du
ctio
n,
R
enew
able
Fu
el M
and
ate
and
%
eth
ano
l in
gas
oli
ne
po
ol
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol ConsumptionRFS-II Quantities % ethanol in gasoline poolMTBE Production RFS-I
5
2006
In 2006 ethanol production exceeded RFS quantity
RFS-I Ethanol Quantity
Production exceeded the mandate
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
14819
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Gas
oli
ne
plu
s E
than
ol
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
than
ol
Pro
du
ctio
n,
R
enew
able
Fu
el M
and
ate
and
%
eth
ano
l in
gas
oli
ne
po
ol
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol Consumption% ethanol in gasoline pool MTBE ProductionRFS-I
6
2007
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (RFS-II)
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
14819
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Gas
oli
ne
plu
s E
than
ol
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
than
ol
Pro
du
ctio
n,
R
enew
able
Fu
el M
and
ate
and
%
eth
ano
l in
gas
oli
ne
po
ol
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol ConsumptionRFS-II Quantities % ethanol in gasoline poolMTBE Production
7
2007
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (RFS-II)
RFS-II Biofuels Quantity
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
1481
99
1
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
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20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
Year
Ga
so
line
plu
s E
tha
no
l Co
ns
um
pti
on
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
tha
no
l Pro
du
cti
on
, R
en
ew
ab
le
Fu
el M
an
da
te a
nd
% e
tha
no
l in
g
as
olin
e p
oo
l
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol ConsumptionRFS-II Quantities % ethanol in gasoline poolMTBE Production
8
2007
– 2
011
Global Financial Crisis
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
14819
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Gas
oli
ne
plu
s E
than
ol
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
than
ol
Pro
du
ctio
n,
R
enew
able
Fu
el M
and
ate
and
%
eth
ano
l in
gas
oli
ne
po
ol
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol ConsumptionRFS-II Quantities % ethanol in gasoline poolMTBE Production
9
2007
- 2
011
Global Financial Crisis
% Ethanol in Gasoline Pool = 10%
US Gasoline + Ethanol Consumption 1991 - 2011 and Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS-II) Total Renewable Fuel Requirements through 2022
[Billion gallons per year]
100
108
116
124
132
140
14819
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Gas
oli
ne
plu
s E
than
ol
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n
0
7
14
21
28
35
42
Fu
el E
than
ol
Pro
du
ctio
n,
R
enew
able
Fu
el M
and
ate
and
%
eth
ano
l in
gas
oli
ne
po
ol
Gasoline plus ethanol consumption Fuel Ethanol ConsumptionRFS-II Quantities % ethanol in gasoline poolMTBE Production
10
2007
- 2
011
Global Financial Crisis
% Ethanol in Gasoline Pool = 10%
A DOE Funded Mercury Marine and Volvo Penta study of the effects of running 15% ethanol concentration in current production 4-stroke engines and “legacy” 2-stroke engines
– Verado 300 hp Outboard – Mercury Marine
– 9.9 hp four stroke outboard- Mercury Marine
– 200HP EFI 2.5L 2 Stroke- Mercury Marine
– 4.3 Liter Volvo Penta Inboard Engine
Cylinder 3Top Valve
Cylinder 6Top Valve
Remaining Pieces from Cylinder 3 Rod Bearing Cage
Undamaged Rod Rod from Cyl 3
Undamaged Bearing
14
5. S
olu
tio
ns
– Solutions:• Quickly start consuming more gasoline (ridiculous)• Realign the RFS to match the new fuel demand reality
(unlikely - does nothing to address the growth of the ethanol industry)
• Raise the amount of ethanol allowed in gasoline (E15 waiver request granted – source of much debate, will cause issues)
• Explore other alternative fuels that can better satisfy the RFS volumes without affecting millions of existing engines
The US Market was saturated with ethanol in 2010. The industry cannot continue to grow
beyond that of exports.
15
What is Butanol?• A four carbon alcohol (C4H9OH), colorless,
neutral liquid of medium volatility with a characteristic banana-like odor.
• Traditionally petrochemical derived - Generally used to make other chemicals, or used as a solvent or an ingredient in formulated products such as cosmetics.
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Butanol Properties:• Butanol 99,800 BTU/gallon• Gasoline 116,000 BTU/gallon• Approximately 86% of the energy content of
gasoline• Ethanol 76,300 BTU/gallon (68% of the energy
content of gasoline)
17
Butanol Properties:
• Phase Separation• As water enters a boat fuel
system containing ethanol-extended fuels, phase separation may occur creating an ethanol/water fuel mixture.
• Butanol does not phase-separate as shown in the cylinder on the right
Figure 1. Effect of adding 10% water by volume to 85%
ethanol and 10% water by volume to 85% butanol
18
Butanol Introduction:
• Less susceptible to phase separation means butanol could be successfully delivered in existing pipelines
• Eliminates need for splash-blending• Least corrosive of alcohols • Higher energy content – can be blended into
gasoline at higher percentages than ethanol
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Purpose of Testing:• To evaluate the effect of butanol-extended
fuels in a harsh marine environment and to see if there is a better alternative to ethanol-extended fuels
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Test Set-up:• On-water emissions testing using the Marine
Portable Bag Sampling (MPSS) unit developed for the EPA/NMMA green house gas study.
EPA’s Second Plan for Flex Fuel VehiclesIn-use E51-83
• E51-83 is not considered gasoline, & therefore has not yet been subject to Part 80 gasoline standards or Part 79 F&FA registration and health effects testing
• No specific regulations for in-use E51-83 quality• Gasoline, & BOBs have historically been used to manufacture E51-83
– In-use E51-83 must be sub-sim to the fuel the FFVs were certified on - mixtures of finished gasoline and ethanol
– Only RFG, RBOB can be used in RFG areas • But while helping to provide assurance of E51-83 quality, the current
situation is creating barriers to E51-83 expansion– Often unable to make E51-83 blends in the high-ethanol content range
with the current hydrocarbon blendstocks because the volatility can be too low for good vehicle startability/performance
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Natural Gasoline: Potentially A Nice Fit as an E51-83 Blendstock
• Domestic natural gasoline supply expected to increase substantially with growth in natural gas and tight-oil production– U.S. NGL production projected to increase ~45% from 2012 to 2017 (3,250
Mb/d by 2017)– No clear home for increased volumes.
• Butane/pentane would be useful RVP trimmers
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Ethanol Natural Gasoline Butane
Octane (R+M)/2 116 73 90
RVP (psi) 2.4 12 52
BTU adjusted price relative to CBOB (July data)
133% 80% 57%
Natural Gasoline Blending Might Help Make E51-83 more
Economical
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Blend NGL % CBOB%
Butane %
RVP Octane $ / gal BTU cost vs E10
E10 - 90% - 10 87 2.86 100%
E51 - 49% - 8.9 100.1 2.79 111.4%
E51 2% 47% - 9 99.9 2.77 111%
E70 - 30% - 7.3 106 2.75 118%
E70 29% 1% - 9 103 2.54 111%
E83 - 17% - 5.6 110 2.73 123%
E83 14.3% - 2.7% 9 109 2.59 112%- Use of butane as RVP trim might be handled similar to gasoline. July cost data used. - RVP of >E10 blends limited to 9 RVP. ASTM current maximum RVP for E51-83 is 8.5 RVP.
<1% savings
7% savings
11% savings
