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Biofuel in the future fossil-free energy system: The Nordic perspective Building a sustainable European biofuel industry Gothenburg, 05.11.2019 Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø Professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences

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  • Biofuel in the future fossil-free energy system:

    The Nordic perspective

    Building a sustainable European biofuel industry

    Gothenburg, 05.11.2019

    Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø

    Professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences

  • THE NORDIC BIOMASS RESOURCES

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    Forest biomass Agro biomass Waste biomass

    Nordic biomass potentials (GWh/Year)

    Finland

    Sweden

    Norway

    Denmark

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    Nordic forest biomass potentials (GWh/year)

    Source: Econ Poyry and Nordic Energy Research (2018)

  • WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL IS ONE COMPONENT IN

    A LARGE RENEWABLE-BASED VALUE CHAIN

    From Jaastad, Rørstad & Bolkesjø., 2019

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    FOREST STOCK AND STOCK AVAILABLE FOR WOOD

    SUPPLY INCREASES

    Graphics from European Forest Institute (2017)

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    Andre produkter og tjenester fra skogarealetEUROPEAN CONSUMPTION OF PRINTING PAPER

    IS DECLINING

  • NORDIC FOREST INDUSTRIES

    – DIFFERENT STRATEGIES AND DIFFERENT OUTCOMES

    Source Midttun & Piccini,2018

    Stock prices for

    leading Nordic pulp

    and paper compaines

    (2000=100)

  • NEW FOREST PRODUCTS ENTERING

    THE MARKET?

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    EnergyPower, heat & transportation

    Materials and chemicals

    Food and Feed

    Based on Ministerie van LNV (2007), NHO (2016) & Jonsson et al (2016)

    Vo

    lum

    e

    Valu

    e a

    dd

    ed

    Health and lifestylePharma, fine chemicals

  • A FOSSIL FREE EU ENERGY SECTOR:

    STILL MAJOR CHALLENGES

    7

    EU energy

    consumption

    Electriciy-

    specific

    Transportation

    Heating

    and

    cooling

    Sources: EU Heating and Cooling strategy & AEBIOM

    Renewble

    share: 5%Heating and

    cooling: 50%Transportation::

    32%

    El-specific:

    18%

    Renewble

    share: 16%

    Renewble

    share: 27%

  • BARRIER OF WOOD-BASED BIOFUELS:THEIR COST

    Source: Mustapha, Tørmborg & Bolkesjø (2016)

    Upper estimate

    First generation biofuel

    Lower estimate

    Fossil fuel

    Cost estimates from the literature

  • MODEL RESULT:

    PROFITABLE WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL VOLUMES

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    1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

    Bill

    ion L

    Cost/price of alternative fuel (€/L)

    20%

    10%

    Source: Jaastad, Rørstad, & Bolkesjøl.(2019)

  • MODEL RESULT:

    PROFITABLE WOOD-BASED BIOFUEL VOLUMES

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    1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

    Bill

    ion L

    Cost/price of alternative fuel (€/L)

    20%

    10%

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    Biomass (pulpwood) price

    Mill m3Biomass price

    (NOK/ m3

    Increased

    harvest

    Share of wood-based biofuel in the Nordic transport sector

    Harvest

    residues

    Imports

    Reduced

    wood use in

    paper

    industries

    Source: Jaastad, Bolkesjø, Rørstad & Trømborg.(2019)

  • Preliminary model results:

    Emission reductions by using biomass for heat versus

    biofuel

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    5 10 14 25 37 48 59 81 103 15 24 32 48 63 79 94 111 127

    2030 2040

    TW

    h o

    r m

    illio

    n to

    n C

    O2eq

    mill

    ion

    to

    n C

    O2eq -

    red

    uctio

    n

    €/ton CO2eq

    Emission reduction

    biomass for heating

    Emission reduction

    biomass for transportation

    Use of biomass

    Larger

    difference for

    high carbon

    prices in

    power and

    heat

    Larger

    difference for

    high carbon

    prices in

    power and

    heat

  • THANK YOU!

    Contact: [email protected]