Bio(diverse)city Climate Change | Biocity Studio
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bio(diverse)city
crisis scenario: climate change
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
climate change
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
(UNFCCC.)
a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of
the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time periods
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
since 1900 the average global temperature has increased by 0.6oC
1998 has been the warmest year since temperature recording began in 1861, whilst the 1990s were the warmest decade globally
increased concentration of greenhouse gases as a result of human activity are substantially responsible for driving climate change
(National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007)
increase in the number of heat waves
warming of oceans
retreat of glaciers and sea ice
rise in sea level of 10-20 cm
increase of heavy rainfall in many regions
fewer frosts
climate changeglobal
since 1910…
both maximum and minimum temperatures have increased, particularly since the mid 20th century, possibly due to post war industrialisation
all of Australia recorded an increase in overnight temperatures
annual total rainfall has shown a weak increase, especially in tropical areas and in eastern NSW
(National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007)
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
Variations of Australian mean temperatures, 1910-2000source: Karoly and Braganza 2004, Journal of ClimateAustralia's inconvenient truth ACF
The 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1994
during the last ice age the global average temperature was only 5 degrees cooler than today
ACF
1951 post war industrialization
climate changeaustralia
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
The 2003 drought cost 70,000 jobs, $13 billion and cut 1.6% off GDP ACF
Higher inland temperature are likely to cause more bushfires
Australia's inconvenient truth ACF
climate changeaustralia
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
there has already been an increase of 0.7degrees over the last 100 yearsCSIRO
change in rainfall patterns have increased salinity and decreased soil fertility in the SW wheat belt
Diamond. J
Australias rainfall over the past fifty-four years. the darkest red areas indicate losses of more than 50mm of rain per decade, while the darkest blue have gained a similar amount. over the past half-century this equates to a 250mm increase or deficit
national
all of Australia's major cities and most of our productive agricultural land have received less rain because of climate change.
Flannery, T.
climate changeaustralia
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
predicted impacts
most of Australia will warm by 0.4 – 2.0oC by 2030, and 1.0 - 6oC by 2070
annual rainfall will generally decrease in the south and east, whilst inland and coastal eastern areas will experience wetter summers
evaporation will increase annually and for all seasons
average decreases in annual water balance are protected to range from about 40 to 120mm per degree of global warming
extreme rainfall and tropical cyclones more intense
CSIRO, National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007
Up to 1 degree change
70% increase in droughts in NSWAustralian snow cover shrinks by 10-40%
ACF
1-2 degree change
40% loss of core habitat for eucalyptus and 100%of Acacia species eliminated in SW Australia
2-3 degree changetotal devastation of the Great Barrier Reef due to coral bleaching
80% of kakadu wetland lost
3-4 degree change
48% less water flow in the Murray Darling Basin
50% of the 65 species unique to the wet tropics will become extinct.
4-5 degree change
60-90% loss of core habitat for Victoria and tropical mountains
50% of the 65 species unique 180 days a year above 35 degrees in South Australia and Northern Territory
above 5 degree change
90-100% loss of core habitat for most Australian vertebrates
Dengue fever transmission zone could reach Brisbane and Sydney Stern Review
climate change + biodiversityaustralia
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
modeling climate change from emissions to impact- (simplification as, in the real climate-human system, there will be feedbacks between many links in the chain)Stern Review
co2 emissions
as a result of human activities, such as land clearing
natural process
the earth is in a constant state of change
combination
human activity has accelerated the rate of change
climate change + biodiversitycatalysts
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
bleaching events more frequent and severe
one in every four species spend a part of its life in a coral reef
.45 degree increase of sea surface temperature
carbon dioxide reducing rates of coral calcification
income of $1 billion annually in direct value
1.6 million tourists visit the great barrier reef region each year
(National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007)
(Flannery, T., Weather Makers)http://www.reef.crc.org.au/publications/
techreport/pdf/Harriott46.pdf
climate change + biodiversitythe great barrier reef
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
pollination carried out by insects and birds is roughly valued at $3 billion Archer. M
Stern review
economic value
Shoalhaven River Dam
by opting for water price reforms and public education aimed at reducing water usage, sydney has been able to postpone the building of the Shoalhaven River Dam, saving hundreds of millions of dollars and indirectly reducing loss of biodiversity
the Aus native forests provide environmental benefits estimated to have the value of
$14 billion Archer. M
the cost of acting later rather than now will be 5 -20 times greater
climate change + biodiversitysydney
impacts on biodiversity
reductions in the geographic range of species
changes to the timing of species lifecycles
changes in population dynamics and survival
changes in the location of species habitat, however as a result of urban development the opportunity for species to relocate is greatly diminished
loss of habitat with raised sea levels and more frequent flood events
increases in the risk of extinction for species that are already vulnerable
increased opportunity for exotic pioneer species
(National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007)
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
climate change + biodiversitysydney
how old will you be?
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
by 2030 + 2 degrees
70% increase in droughts in NSW
40% loss of core habitat for eucalyptus
cane toads and red ants have invaded sydney threatening agriculture and native ecosystems
rapid extinction of birds
16% increase in evaporation
decreased rainfall by 10% annually
sea level rise of 2m
serious decline of wetland ecosystems
invasion of exotic plant species
extreme disturbance to breeding patterns
as sea temperature rises, we will experience more
severe storms
I WILL BE 44 YEARS OLD
matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson
“Make the wrong choices now and future generations will live with a
changed climate, depleted resources and without green space and
biodiversity that contribute to our standard of living and our quality of life.”
Tony Blair, March 2005
by 2070 + 6 degrees I WILL BE 84 YEARS OLD
48% less water flow in the Murray Darling Basin
90-100% loss of core habitat for most Australian vertebrates
dengue fever transmission zone could reach Brisbane and Sydney Stern Review
melting of ice caps minimum sea level increase of 5.5m Gore, A