Belgrade, August 2011

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

BULLETINPUBLIC FINANCE

June 2011

Founder and publisherMinistry of Finance, Republic of Serbia

Belgrade, 20 Kneza Milosa St.www.mfin.gov.rsISSN 1452-0028

For the publisherJelena Rančić

Assistant Minister of Financejelena.rancic@mfin.gov.rs

EditorialJelena Rančić, Marinko Bošnjak,Ljubica Matić, Snežana Jovičić,

Vladimir Malbašić, Radovan Medić, Ognjen Jančić, Marko Lisica,

Branislav Tončić, Veselinka Kralj, Milica Jovanović, Aleksandar Stojković

Danilo Vukojičić

Editorial secretaryLjubica Matić

ljubica.matic@mfin.gov.rs

Design and printSlužbeni glasnik

Circulation 100 copies

The Bulletin is issued monthly

CONTENTS

41131355155616977Economic, Fiscal and Statistics of Public Debt

CURRENT MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS

1. Current macroeconomic developments1.1. Economic activityIndustrial output. According to Statistical Offi ce of the Republic of Serbia (RSO) data, in June 2011 physical scope of industrial production registered growth in all areas. Physical scope of industrial production increased by 3.3% compared to same month of 2010. By sectors, growth was recorded in mining and quarrying by 17.8% and in sector production and distribution of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning by 13.3%. Increase of production by 0.5% was registered in manufacturing sector which has biggest share in total production. Biggest impact on industrial production growth in June 2011 compared to same month of 2010 had: electrical energy supply, manufacture of electrical equipment, mining of coal and lignite, manufacture of beverages and manufacture of paper and paper products.Growth of industrial production in June 2011 compared to same month of previous year was registered in 19 areas which accounts for 79% of total industrial production, while decline recorded in 10 areas, which accounts for 21% of total industrial production.In the fi rst half of 2011 total industrial production recorded growth of 4.8% compared to same period of 2010. Observed by sectors in this period manufacturing industry registered growth of 2.9%, mining and quarrying sector 12.3% and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9.9%, compared to same period of 2010.Data on industrial production by destination groups in fi rst half of 2011, compared to same period of previous year, expresses rise in production of capital goods by 13.2%, intermediate goods, except energy by 8.2% and energy by 6.9%, while decline registered in production of durable consumer goods of 9.3% and nondurable consumer goods by 0.8%.

Seasonally adjusted indices of industrial output, average 2010 = 100

Seasonally adjusted rates indicate that total industrial production in June 2011 increased by 3.3% compared to 2010 average production, while production of manufacturing sector increased by 1.9%. Compared to previous month, seasonally adjusted index of industrial production registered decline by 3.1%, while manufacturing sector decline by 1.1%.Finished goods inventories in June 2011 decreased by 1.4% compared to same month of 2010. On the inventories decline in this period strongest impact had decline of intermediate goods by 5.7%. At the same time observed by destination groups, increase recorded in energy inventories by 11.7%, capital goods inventories by 30.1% and inventories of durable consumer goods by 2.8%. Inventories of non-durable consumer goods decreased at the same time by 4.8%.Retail trade turnover. In June 2011 compared to previous month retail trade turnover increased by 1.1% in real terms, while compared to same month of 2010 decreased by 16%. Retail trade turnover decreased by 15.7% in real terms compared to 2010 average turnover. In fi rst half of 2011 real retail trade turnover decreased by 13%, while nominal retail trade turnover decreased by 1.9% compared to same period of 2010.Tourism. In June 2011, number of tourist visits increased by 5.1%, from which domestic tourist visits decreased by 1% and foreign tourists increased by 16.9% compared to the same month of previous year. Also number of tourist’s overnight stays increased by 5.1%, compared to same month of previous year. In fi rst six months of 2011 were registered 983.6 thousand tourist visits and 3,179 thousand overnight stays. In this period, number of tourist visits increased by 8%, from which domestic tourist visits increased by 4.1% and foreign tourists by 16.2% compared to the same period of previous year. Also number of tourist’s overnight stays increased by 11.9%, from which domestic tourist by 10.2% and foreign tourists by 18.4%.Privatization of enterprises. In period January-June 2011 total of 9 socially owned enterprises were privatized via tenders (1), auctions (1) and capital market (5) and two enterprises with previously terminated contracts. By the sale of this enterprises revenue totaled EUR 3.8 million and investments totaled EUR 3.5 million. By the sale of shares of 15 previously privatized socially-owned enterprises on stock exchange market in this period was achieved

revenue of EUR 1.73 million. Total revenue from privatization in this period totaled EUR 5.56 million.In June 2011 two enterprises were privatized via capital market and two with previously terminated contracts and achieved revenue of EUR 1 million. By the sale of shares of 4 previously privatized socially-owned enterprises on stock exchange market was achieved revenue of EUR 1.5 million. Total revenue from privatization in June totaled EUR 2.5 million.1.2. International Economic RelationsIn June 2011 growth of goods exported increased and growth of imported goods signifi cantly reduced and consequently defi cit of goods. Export of goods increased by 12.6%, while import increased by 0.2% and trade defi cit by 17.8% compared to same month of 2010. 66.7% of import was covered by export, which is by 7.3 percentage points increase compared to same month of previous year. Seasonally adjusted export expressed in Euros in June increased by 8.9% compared to May, while import decreased by 8.1%.

Foreign trade, in million EUR

In fi rst half of 2011 value of goods exported was about EUR 4.1 billion, which is by 23.1% increase relative to the same period of 2010. Import of goods amounted to around EUR 6.9 billion which is increase by 16.8%. Dynamical growth of import, especially in January and May, infl uenced to External trade defi cit to increase in June by 8.6% compared to same period of previous year and amounted to EUR 2.8 billion.High export growth rates are primarily result of increased export of iron and steel, ferrous metals, corn, vegetables and fruits and electrical machines and appliances. Almost half of the export increase in this period is related to these products. Structure of import was dominated by energy (oil and oil derivatives and gas), ferrous metals, road vehicles and general industrial machinery (37.7% of total import increase).Positive trade balance of EUR 635.5 million was achieved by sectors: food and live animals, drinks and tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and fats, manufactured goods classifi ed by materials (iron and steel, ferrous metals, crude rubber and cork) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (furniture,

clothing’s and footwear).In fi rst half of 2011 largest external-trade partners were EU countries on which related 59.6% of total export and 54.8% of total imports. Largest volume of goods in this period was exported into Italy, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania (40.5% of total export). Imports from Russian Federation, Germany, Italy and China accounted for 39.2% of total six-month import. In external trade with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Macedonia were achieved surplus of EUR 485.2 million.In period January-May 2011 current account defi cit of balance of payments (without offi cial grants) were higher by EUR 263.1 million compared to the same period of 2010, and amounted to EUR 1.4 billion. Net infl ow of remittances declined by EUR 35.9 million while current transfer surplus by EUR 16 million, compared to the same period of 2010. Decline of defi cit was registered on income side and amounted to EUR 281.3 million. Surplus on fi nancial account increased by EUR 15 million, while capital account registered defi cit of EUR 1.2 million, compared to surplus of EUR 0.3 million in the same period of 2010.Overall balance of payments in the period January-May 2011 were in surplus of EUR 259.5 million, while in the same period of 2010 was in defi cit of EUR 390.4 million.Net infl ow of foreign direct investments was higher by EUR 92.1 million compared to the same period of previous year and amounted to EUR 485.7 million. At the same time, net infl ow of portfolio investments increased by about twelve times and amounted to EUR 700.2 million as a result of investment in treasury bills.1.3. Infl ation1

Consumer prices in June 2011 for the fi rst time aft er December 2009 registered decrease. Consumer prices were lower by 0.3% compared to May because of food prices decline (-1.3%), especially seasonally caused decline of food and vegetable prices by 7.5%. In June highest growth in prices was registered in non-alcoholic drinks (0.8%) and oil derivatives (0.6%). Regulated prices increased by 0.2% compared to May, mostly because of increase in prices of central heating and passengers transport prices in public transport. Core infl ation increased by 0.3% as in May.

1 From 2011, core infl ation are calculated in accordance to new methodology.

Consumer prices in June 2011, in %, previous month = 100

Compared to December 2010 consumer prices growth in June was 6.8% and was determined by food price growth of 10% which is half of total infl ation. Biggest growth in prices had fruit and vegetables (13.9%), and prices of oil derivatives (11.1%), which is about one-fi ft h of total price growth in fi rst half of 2011.1.4. Monetary and fi nancial market developmentsMonetary developments. National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decreased key interest rate in June to 12% from 12.5% in previous month. Total stock of securities that NBS utilizes for operations on the OTC market at the end of June amounted to RSD 73,911 million. In June 2011 compared to December 2010, bank loans to economy and households increased by 4.5% in real terms. Dinar reserve money, monetary aggregates M1, M2 and M3 recorded decrease by 9.2%, 12.4%, 8.3% and 7.5%, in real terms, respectively. Foreign exchange rate recorded nominal appreciation of 3% and real appreciation of 8.2%.

Monetary aggregates, annual real growth rates

Dinar reserve money, in June increased by RSD 8 billion compared to previous month. At the same time monetary aggregates M1, M2 and M3 increased by RSD 3.5 billion, RSD 11.6 billion and RSD 57.5 billion, respectively.

Bank credits and cross-border, annual real growth rates

Bank lending activity is registering a slow dawn of growth. Bank loans to economy and households at the end of June increased by 0.5% in real terms compared to a previous month . At the same time loans to economy increased by 0.2% while loans to households increased by 1%. Bank loans to economy and households increase by 12.1% in real terms compared to the same month of 2010. At the same time loans to economy increased by 14.9% and to households by 7.3% in real terms. Th e average weighted interest rate on bank loans in June was 15.8% on yearly bases. Share of non-performing loans in total loans totaled 18.6% (on a gross basis).In June key interest rate were 12% which is compared to same month of 2010 increase by 4 percentage points. Banks are in that period decreased their liabilities in NBS securities by 30.1%, while due to higher interest rate (range between 11.9% to 15.1%), high level of security, wider maturity choices and by introduction of euro-indexed bonds2, banks increased loans to state treasury bills by 93.7%.NBS foreign exchange reserves decreased by EUR 97 million compared to the previous month and totaled EUR 9,967 million in June, while compared to the same month of previous year decreased by EUR 526.1 million. At the same time net foreign exchange reserves3 amounted to EUR 5,399 million. Level of NBS foreign exchange reserves was suffi cient for coverage of 426% of M1 monetary aggregate and for coverage of about 7 months of imports of goods and services.Household foreign currency savings rose. Compared to previous month registered increase by EUR 60 million and totaled EUR 7,429 million, while compared to same month of previous year increased by EUR 1,034 million. Th e average weighted interest rate on bank deposits totaled 6.5% on yearly basis. Total household savings are dominated by foreign

2 Six-months euro-indexed state treasury bonds for the fi rst time are introduced in December 2010.

3 Defi ned as foreign exchange reserves less banks foreign exchange balances on accounts with the NBS and drawings from the IMF.

currency savings deposits.Developments on the foreign exchange market in June 2011 compared to the previous month were characterized by nominal depreciation of dinar against Euro of 5.4% and real depreciation of 5.6%. Average daily variation from average exchange rate value in June amounted to RSD 1.64, which is higher compared to average variation of exchange rate in previous month (RSD 1.16). NBS from the beginning of the year intervened on the foreign exchange market by net buying of EUR 15 million (buying of EUR 45 million and selling of EUR 30 million) to stop high daily fl uctuations of foreign exchange rate.Financial markets. In period January-June 2011 Belgrade stock exchange registered total turnover of securities in amount of RSD 17.3 billion, from which turnover of shares and Republic of Serbia bonds (RS bonds) totaled RSD 15.9 billion and RSD 1.4 billion, respectively. In comparison to same period of 2010 total turnover increased by 80.8%, while turnover of shares registered increase of 97.3% compared to RS bonds turnover decrease of 5.7%.Total number of transactions increased from 27,912 in fi rst half of 2010 to 2,509,096 in same period of 2011. Increase of total transactions of securities in this period was infl uenced by increased number of turnover of shares due to realizing on the market of NIS shares and shares of Nikola Tesla airport. Total market capitalization value at the end of June decreased by 2.2% compared to previous month, while compared to same month of 2010 increased by 5.3%.In fi rst half of 2011 foreign investors share in total turnover accounted for 41.2% on average and increased by 4.7 percentage points in comparison to same period of 2010. Share of foreign investors in turnover of shares increased by 3.1 percentage points and amounted to 44% on average, while share in RS bonds turnover decreased by 2.8 percentage points and amounted to 11% on average.At the end of June 2011, value of BELEXline index was 1,387.5 index points and compared to the previous month decreased by 7.2%, while value of BELEX15 index decreased by 9.3% and amounted to 748 index points. Compared to end of June 2010 both indexes increased their value by 12.1% and 17.9%, respectively.1.5. Employment and unemploymentTotal number of employed persons in fi rst half of 2011 decreased by 3.5% compared to the same period of 2010, while number of employed persons in enterprises, institutions and organizations4 decreased by 0.8%.Number of unemployed persons looking for employment at the end of June compared to previous

4 Data does not include private entrepreneurs and employed with them.

month decreased by 0.8% while number of persons actively looking for employment decreased by 1%. Th e number of unemployed persons looking for employment decreased by 0.4%, while number of persons actively looking for employment increased by 1.3%, compared to same month of 2010.According to the NES data, unemployment rate of persons actively looking for employment in June 2011 totaled 30.1% (with insured farmers 27.6%). According to Labor Force Survey data from April 2011, unemployment rate of persons of working age were 22.9% and increased by 2.9 percentage points compared to October 2010.

Unemployment developments

1.6. Salaries and pensionsAverage net salary in fi rst half of 2011 totaled RSD 36,540 which is decrease by 2.2% in real terms compared to same period of 2010. Denominated in Euros average net salaries increased by 8.6% and amounted to EUR 359. Average net salaries in public sector amounted to RSD 42,187 and decreased by 4.5% in real terms.In June 2011, average net salary increased by 11.5% in real terms compared to previous month and amounted to RSD 39.322, while net salaries in public sector increased by 10.5% in real terms and amounted to RSD 44.850. Th is increase of real salaries was infl uenced by statistical methodology and paid salaries in advance before holidays and due to delayed payments.Average net salaries and average pensions, annual

real growth rates

Decline of average net salaries in real terms in fi rst half of 2011 compared to same period of previous year

was recorded in following areas of public sector: local public enterprises (-6.3%), all levels of administration (-2.1%), education and culture (-7.9%) and health sector (-5%). Growth of average net salaries in real terms was registered only in public state owned enterprises (0.2%)Average paid pension5 in fi rst half of 2011 totaled RSD 20,935 which is decrease by 6.7% in real terms compared to same period of 2010. In comparison to previous month average paid pension registered decrease of 0.3% in real terms. Denominated in Euros average pension in this period amounted to EUR 206. Total number of pension benefi ciaries increased by 0.9% compared to the same month of 2010. Ratio of registered number of employees and number of pension benefi ciaries was 1.1:1. Average pension accounted for 54.7% of average net salary.2. Current fi scal developments 6

Public revenue of the general government has achieved moderate nominal growth, but it also achieved the real decline during the January – June period of 2011, compared to the same period of the previous year. Current revenue is 4.5% lower, in real terms, compared to the exact period of the previous year. Tax revenue in the same period posted a real drop by 4.5%, and there is a real decline of non-tax revenue of 4.4%. Capital revenue and donations have achieved a signifi cant growth compared to the same period of the previous year.Revenues from all major tax types except for excises and corporate income tax, posted a real decline compared to the same period previous year. However, the majority of categories recorded nominal growth. Nominally, revenue from excises increased by 20.8%, VAT revenue by 7.4%, and social insurance contributions by 6.2%. Both personal income tax and corporate income tax recorded nominal increase (7.6% and 20.8% respectively), while customs revenues declined by 9.7% nominally. Personal income tax. Th e level of personal income tax revenue achieved nominal growth by 7.4%, yet the real decline by 4.9%, compared to the previous year. Because most of the income tax is comprised from wage tax (approx. 60%), its dynamics predominantly infl uences the overall personal income tax revenue. Within the period, nominal wages grew by 10.6%, compared with the same period of the previous year, while nominal growth of wage tax revenue in the

5 Integrated data of employee fund, self-employed fund and farmer’s fund.

6 Revenue, expense and result of the consolidated general government are presented in chapter II Fiscal Developments, Table 1.A more detailed overview of revenues and expense by governmental levels can also be found in tables in chapter II Fiscal Developments.

same period was 8.5%. Th e diff erence  between the movement of income tax and movements in wages is caused by the employment fall in the observed period. Other types of personal income tax receipts (tax on revenue of self-employed persons, tax on royalties, annual income tax etc.) posted a 3.9% nominal rise in the observed period. Corporate income tax. In the period January – June 2011, in comparison to the previous year, the nominal increase of corporate profi t tax (which share in total is around 84%) was 29.2%, while the real increase in the same period was 14.2%. Revenue from other types of profi t tax recorded a nominal drop of 9.2%7, while the real drop was 19.7% within the period.Value added tax. VAT revenues were by 5% lower in real terms in the period January – June 2011, relative to the same period last year. Its nominal growth in the same period was 7.4%. Domestic VAT was by 11.7% lower nominally and by 22% lower in real terms, whereas VAT on imported goods recorded a 19.8% nominal and 6% real growth. Th e trends  in  foreign trade  sector  show  continued  recovery  of revenues  from  this type of tax, at the beginning of 2011. Excises. Excise revenues recorded both nominal and real growth in the observed period. Th e real amount of collected excise taxes was by 6.8% higher, compared with the same period of the previous year, and such a trend is a consequence of, among other things, increase in  the nominal  amount of  excise tax  on tobacco  products  in late 2010,  and  the  changes  in the structure of excise rates on petroleum products. Revenue from excise on oil derivatives rose by 19.6% nominally and by 5.7% higher in real terms. Revenue from excise on tobacco products rose by 8.6% in real terms, and recorded 22.9% nominal growth, while revenues from excises on alcoholic beverages rose by 0.4% in real terms. Revenues from other types of excises in the observed were higher in real terms by 23.8% compared with the same period of the previous year. Customs. Th e amount of customs duties revenues in the period January – June 2011 was a consequence of imports patterns in the observed period and the further implementation of the Interim Trade Agreement with the EU. Nominal decline in customs revenues in the observed period was 9.7%, while imports expressed in dinars increased by 19%.Other tax revenue. Other tax revenues were by 15.1% lower in real terms in fi rst six months of 2011 compared with the same period of the previous year.

7 Other profi t taxes include tax on distributed profi t, tax on corporate profi t from interest, royalties and capital gains paid to non-residents and profi t tax from lease of movable and immovable property.

Property tax, which is attributed to local authorities, accounts for the biggest share of other tax revenue and its trends predominantly infl uence developments in the entire group of other tax revenue. Property tax revenue was by 11.7% lower in real terms, while it remained at the same level nominally, relative to the same period of the previous year. Other tax revenue recorded real decrease of 5% compared with the same period of the previous year mainly due to the abolition of mobile phones tax.Social contributions. Th e real level of revenue from social contributions in the period January – June 2011 was by 6.1% lower relative to the previous year. Nominal growth in contributions revenue in the observed period was 6.2% and deviates from the movement of revenues from taxes on wages. During 2010, 25.7 billion dinars were transferred to Pension Fund due to exceptional payment of contributions by the Government decree. In the period January – June 2011, collected contributions paid by self-employed persons were by 0.5% higher nominally, while contributions paid for pension and disability insurance for farmers were nominally by 3.7% higher compared with the same period of the previous year. Revenues from contributions for pension and disability insurance for employed persons lowered nominally by the rate of 4.2%, while revenues from health security and unemployment insurance contributions grew nominally by 5.1% and 7.3%, respectively. Public expenditure grew moderately in the period January – June 2011. Government spending in the observed period grew by 9.8% nominally; current expense posted 8.6% nominal growth, while capital expense was by 21.4% higher nominally compared with the same period of the previous year. Net lending expenditures posted high nominal increase. Diff erent expenditure categories manifested a growth tendency. Expenditures for employees. Th e real wage bill level in the general government was by 3.7% lower in the observed period. Nominal growth was 8.9% and due to unfreezing of nominal wages that trend is going to continue. Th e nominal movements at particular levels of government were as follows: the budget of the Republic recorded an 11% nominal growth, while local governments recorded a 6% nominal growth. Procurement of goods and services. Real decrease of expenditure for procurement of goods and services from January to June 2011 was 1.9%, compared with the previous year, while the nominal increase was 11%. At Republican budget level and local government level and Pension Fund (PIO) and Health Fund (RZZO) the increase of these expenses was recorded, while it remained the same at the provincial level.Repayment of interest.  Funds spent for the repayment

of interest are higher by 19.3% in real terms compared to the previous year. Movement of these expenditures is conditioned by the plan of repayment of principal and interest on debt. Th e largest growth was recorded at the level of interest payments on the basis of domestic debt. Subsidies. Subsidies paid in the observed period were 8.6% lower in real terms compared with the same period of the previous year. Subsidies paid from the Republican budget are nominally higher by 5.6% while a real decline of 6.6% is recorded. On the local level, expenditure for subsidies posted a 6.6% nominal growth and 5.7% real decline. Decline of these expenses was recorded at the level of AP Vojvodina. However, the small volume of these expenses to a lesser extent aff ects the movement of the overall level of subsidies. Social assistance and other transfers to residents. Real level of transfers to residents was by 7.4% lower in the period January – June 2011 compared to the same period of 2010. Pensions account for the biggest share of transfers to residents, and its level has been kept constant during 2009 and 2010, likewise the wages in general government sector, as of the end of year 2008. In the fi rst six months of 2011 expenditures for pensions recorded a real decline of 7% compared to the same period last year, but moderate nominal and real growth is expected to occur during the year. Nominal increase of expenditure for sick leave and nominal decrease of the unemployment benefi ts is recorded.  On the other hand, there is a growth in other categories of transfers to residents and various forms of social assistance.8Capital expense. Capital spending in the observed period was higher by 7.3% in real terms compared with the same the year before. Nominal increase of this expense has been recorded at all levels of government, but AP Vojvodina’s.Net lending. Th ese expenses have shown an increase, of 24.5% in real terms, compared to the previous year.In the period from January through June, the general government posted an RSD 70 billion defi cit. A consolidated defi cit of RSD 19.7 billion was created in June 2011.

8 Other transfers to residents include payments made by mandatory social insurance organizations for diff erent purposes: care for the elderly, funeral costs, medicinal aids etc.

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Ministry of Finance

Table 1. Basic macroeconomic and fi scal indicatorsprevious year = 100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Gross domes c product, current prices, in billion dinars 762,2 972,6 1.125,8 1.380,7 1.683,5 1.962,1 2.276,91 2.661,41

Gross domes c product, in millions EUR 12.820,9 16.028,4 17.305,9 19.026,2 20.305,6 23.304,9 28.467,91 32.668,21

Gross domes c product, per capita, EUR 1.708,7 2.137,1 2.313,4 2.549,4 2.729,0 3.144,4 3.856,61 4.444,51

Gross domes c product, real growth, in %1 5,3 4,3 2,5 9,3 5,4 3,6 5,4 3,8

Economy, growth rates

Industrial produc on, physical scope 0,1 1,8 -2,8 6,6 0,6 4,2 4,1 1,4

Agriculture, physical scope 18,6 -3,4 -7,2 19,5 -5,0 -0,3 -8,0 8,5

Forestry, physical scope -17,6 6,9 5,6 3,1 -2,2 6,1 -4,2 13,9

Construc on

- value of construc on works, constant prices -13,1 76,8 19,7 31,3 13,7 10,9 18,9 4,3

Transport, volume of services 9,6 6,9 5,0 4,7 4,6 5,6 7,0 0,4

Post ac vi es and telecommunica ons, volume of services 25,1 3,6 24,1 23,1 34,1 75,1 43,4 39,0

Turnover in retail trade, real terms 19,6 23,8 13,9 17,9 26,6 7,7 23,0 6,6

Tourism, overnight stays -6,5 0,2 -7,2 -0,6 -2,2 1,4 11,2 0,1

Prices, growth rates

Retail prices, end of period 40,7 14,8 7,8 13,7 17,7 6,6 10,1 6,8

Retail prices, period average 91,8 19,5 11,7 10,1 16,5 12,7 6,8 10,9

Producers prices of manufactured goods, period average 87,7 8,8 4,6 9,1 14,2 13,3 5,9 12,4

Cost of living, period average 93,3 16,6 9,9 11,4 16,2 11,7 7,0 13,5

Foreign trade and Balance of payments, in million EUR1

Export of goods 1.922,2 2.201,7 2.441,3 2.831,6 3.608,3 5.102,4 6.431,9 7.428,9

European Union 892,4 960,7 1.202,3 1.456,5 2.117,6 2.942,9 3.602,7 4.028,5

Import of goods 4.759,2 5.956,8 6.585,5 8.623,3 8.439,2 10.462,6 13.951,0 16.478,1

Capital goods2 - - - 2.495,3 1.971,6 2.429,8 3.495,9 2.965,1

Intermediate good2 - - - 2.830,6 3.027,6 3.781,4 4.892,1 4.631,5

Foreign trade defi cit -2.837,0 -3.755,1 -4.144,3 -5.791,7 -4.831,0 -5.360,1 -7.519,1 -9.049,2

Current account defi cit (excluding dona ons)3,4 -370 -1.190 -1.770 -3.001 -2.046 -2.541 -5.219 -7.217

Current account defi cit (excluding dona ons), as % of GDP -2,9 -7,4 -10,2 -15,8 -10,1 -10,9 -18,3 -22,1

Balance of payments, total3,4 562 996 827 343 1.647 4.269 742 -1.687

Foreign direct investments, net, in million EUR 184 500 1.194 774 1.250 3.323 1.821 1.824

External debt, in million EUR, end of period5 10.968 9.402 9.678 9.466 12.196 14.182 17.139 21.088

Gross fi xed capital forma on

Gross fi xed capital forma on, in billion dinars 81,3 120,5 188,9 265,7 319,9 412,8 552,3 632,4

Gross fi xed capital forma on as a % of GDP 10,7 12,4 16,8 19,2 19,0 21,0 24,31 23,81

Fiscal indicators6

Consolidated public revenues, in million dinars - - - - 724.526,7 867.681,6 1.002.047,5 1.143.603,2

Consolidated public expenditures, in million dinars - - - - 706.844,2 899.287,0 1.046.848,3 1.214.026,4

Consolidated defi cite/surplus, in million dinars - - - - 17.682,5 -31.605,4 -44.800,8 -70.423,2

Public debt, end of period, in million dinars 802.138 709.283 752.995 763.324 879.171 738.808 703.249 778.039

Monetary and Foreign Exchange Indicators, end of period

Dinar reserve money, in million dinars 41.643 69.543 72.267 82.383 100.341 143.409 169.020 319.781

Money supply М1, in million dinars 58.233 93.815 99.303 111.258 144.949 200.090 248.873 240.744

Money supply М3, in million dinars 125.414 191.491 244.731 322.876 458.870 634.470 903.871 992.151Total domes c credits to economic organiza ons and households, in million dinars 252.164 167.765 224.775 330.533 502.251 583.713 812.448 1.090.801

Credit to economic organiza ons, in million dinars 246.887 151.626 195.442 264.177 370.391 380.395 506.991 662.622

Credit to households, in million dinars 5.277 16.139 29.333 66.356 131.860 203.318 305.457 428.179

Foreign exchange reserves of NBS, in million EUR 1.325 2.208 2.854 3.131 4.952 9.041 9.660 8.190

Key policy rate - - - - - 14,00 10,00 17,75

Value of EUR against dinar 59,7 61,5 68,3 78,9 85,5 79,0 79,2 88,6

Foreign currency savings, million EUR, end of period 330 755 1.038 1.425 2.239 3.346 4.903 4.775

Dinar savings, million EUR, end of period - 58 62 40 36 68 125 119

Employment, salaries and pension benefi ts

Employment level, average (thousands) 2.102 2.067 2.041 2.051 2.069 2.026 2.002 1.999

Unemployment level, end of period (thousands) - - - - 896 916 785 728

Unemployment rate, ILO defi ni on 19,5 21,8 21,6 18,8 14,4

Net salaries, period average, in dinars 6.078 9.208 11.500 14.108 17.443 21.707 27.759 32.746

- real growth rates 16,5 29,9 13,6 10,1 6,4 11,4 19,5 3,9

Gross salaries, period average, in dinars 8.691 13.260 16.612 20.555 25.514 31.745 38.744 45.674

- real growth rates 16,0 30,0 14,0 11,1 6,8 11,4 14,1 3,9

Pension benefi ts, period average, in dinars 4.505 6.134 7.393 8.725 10.568 12.151 13.612 17.660

- real growth rates 17,9 16,8 9,7 5,9 4,2 2,9 4,7 14,3

Priva za on proceeds socialy owned enterprises, in million EUR 318,8 839,7 153,9 367,8 235,2 400,1 247,1

Source: MOF, RSO, NBS, NEA, PF and Priva za on Agency1Since January 2011 methodology for the GDP sta s cs has been changed. 2 Data for foreign trade with Montenegro included in 2006. 3 New classifi ca on in order from 2004. 4 For precalcula ons from USD to EUR for 2001-2006. was used average rela on of USD to EUR for those years. Data for 2007. and 2008. are from NBS. 5 New metodology. 6 Since September 2010 methodology for the external debt sta s cs has been changed. 7 GFS-1986 metodology.

13

June 2011

Table 1. (con nued) Basic macroeconomic and fi scal indicatorsprevious year = 100

2009 2010 2011

Gross domestic product, current prices, in billion dinars 2.713,21 2.986,62 3.353,64

Gross domestic product, in millions EUR 28.883,41 28.984,93 32.2104

Gross domestic product, per capita, EUR 3.945,41 3.966,93 4.4264

Gross domestic product, real growth, in % -3,51 1,02 3,42,5

Economy, growth rates January-JuneIndustrial production, physical scope -12,6 2,5 -0,45

Agriculture, physical scope 1,0 -0,6 8,45,6

Forestry, physical scope -9,0 6,5 -Construction

- value of construction works, constant prices -19,9 -5,4 -5,75

Transport, volume of services -14,8 7,8 12,7Post activities and telecommunications, volume of services 28,5 -

- post activities -1,4 3,6 -0,45

- telecommunications 28,9 6,36 8,45,6

Turnover in retail trade, real terms -11,6 -0,9 -13,0Tourism, overnight stays -7,8 -5,1 11,9

Prices, growth rates January-JuneConsumer prices, end of period 6,6 10,3 6,8Consumer prices, period average 8,4 6,5 13,1Producers prices of industrial products for domestic market, period average 5,6 12,7 16,6Export producers prices, period average - 17,3 12,5Producers prices of manufactured goods (Total)7, period average - 13,7 15,7Cost of living, period average 8,6 6,8 -

Foreign trade and Balance of payments8, in million EUR January-JuneExport of goods 5.961,3 7.393,4 4.117,1

European Union 3.195,5 4.235,2 2.453,3Import of goods 11.504,7 12.622,0 6.891,9

Capital goods 2.038,6 1.886,6 1.075,3 Intermediate good 3.410,5 4.082,2 2.267,4

Foreign trade defi cit -5.543,4 -5.228,6 -2.774,8Balance of payments January-MayCurrent account defi cit (excluding donations) -2.281,9 -2.275,1 -1.388,5Current account defi cit (excluding donations), as % of GDP -7,9 -7,8 -Balance of payments, total 2.363,5 -928,7 259,5Foreign direct investments, net, in million EUR 1.372,5 860,1 485,7

MayExternal debt, in million EUR, end of period9 22.487 23.786 22.897Gross fi xed capital formation Gross fi xed capital formation, in billion dinars 510,2 - -Gross fi xed capital formation as a % of GDP 18,8 - -Fiscal indicators10 January-June

Consolidated public revenues, in million dinars 1.146.510 1.223.403 604.970Consolidated public expenditures, in million dinars 1.267.905 1.359.872 674.939Consolidated defi cite/surplus, in million dinars -121.395 -136.470 -69.969Public debt, end of period, in million dinars 944.442 1.282.536 1.361.421

Monetary and Foreign Exchange Indicators, end of period JuneDinar reserve money, in million dinars 254.268 188.161 182.513Money supply М1, in million dinars 258.427 253.286 236.881Money supply М3, in million dinars 1.205.570 1.360.777 1.344.773Total domestic credits to economic organizations and households, in million dinars 1.267.343 1.599.299 1.638.466

Credit to economic organizations, in million dinars 804.998 1.028.094 1.055.194Credit to households, in million dinars 462.345 571.205 583.272

Foreign exchange reserves of NBS, in million EUR 10.602 10.002 9.967Key policy rate 9,50 11,50 12,00Value of EUR against dinar 95,89 105,50 102,46Foreign currency savings, million EUR, end of period 6.014 7.106 7.429Dinar savings, million EUR, end of period 129 127 133Employment, salaries and pension benefi ts January-JuneEmployment level, average (thousands)11 1.889 1.796 1.762Unemployment level, end of period (thousands) 730 730 756Unemployment rate, ILO defi nition 16,9 20,0 22,912

Net salaries, period average, in dinars13 31.733 34.142 36.540- real growth rates 0,2 0,7 -2,2

Gross salaries, period average, in dinars13 44.147 47.450 50.755- real growth rates 0,2 0,6 -2,2

Pension benefi ts, period average, in dinars 19.788 19.890 20.935- real growth rates 3,3 -5,9 -6,7

January-JunePrivatization proceeds socialy owned enterprises, in million EUR 48,8 18,8 5,6

Source: MOF, RSO, NBS, NEA, PF and Priva za on Agency1 Since January 2011 methodology for the GDP sta s cs has been changed. 2 RSO es ma on. 3 Calculated in MoF. 4 MFO es ma on. 5 January-March 2011/January-March 2010. 6 From 01/01/2010 Telekom Srbija, Joint Stock Company ceased to observe impulses in fi xed network domes c traffi c and started to present the subject sevices in minutes. 7 Index shall be accounted according to the data compiled for producer’s price index for industrial products in domes c market and producer’s export price index for industrial products. 8 Since January 1st 2010 general trade system has been introduced. Data for 2007, 2008 and 2009 changed according to new Methodoogy. 9 Since September 2010 methodology for the external debt sta s cs has been changed. 10 GFS-1986 metodology. 11 RSO corrected the data on the number of employees from March 2009. 12 Labour force survey - April 2011. 13 New methodology for salaries, RSO applied from 2009.

14

Ministry of Finance

Table 2. Real growth rates of GDP, at constant prices (Reference year 2005)∆, compared with the same qarter in the previous year, %

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20101 20111

I quarter 0,9 5,7 8,6 3,5 5,2 7,8 7,5 -3,9 -0,6 3,4

II quarter 4,6 5,0 5,6 7,5 3,5 7,0 4,3 -4,6 0,8 -

III quarter 7,0 -0,5 8,7 7,4 3,5 3,6 3,9 -3,1 2,0 -

IV quarter 4,3 0,8 13,8 3,3 2,4 3,7 0,3 -2,6 1,4 -

∆, compared with the previous year, %

TOTAL 4,3 2,5 9,3 5,4 3,6 5,4 3,8 -3,5 1,0 -1 RSO es ma onSource: RSO

10

5

0

5

10

15

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Real growth rates of GDP, %

GDP Seasonal adjustment GDP

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan

Mar

May July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay July

Sept

Nov Ja

nM

arM

ay

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Indices, Ø 2010=100Industrial production

Trend

15

June 2011

Table 3. Consumer pricesIndices

Total Food and non-alcoholicbeverages Housing Transport

Structure (in 2011), % 100,0 37,79 16,32 9,6520071) 111,0 118,4 107,4 108,720081) 108,6 113,8 111,6 97,220091) 106,6 100,8 106,8 121,120101) 110,3 110,7 113,8 109,520082) January 100,9 101,4 100,4 102,0February 100,6 101,0 100,3 100,9March 101,6 102,8 101,5 101,8April 101,5 103,7 99,8 100,0May 101,8 103,8 100,3 101,3June 100,7 100,6 99,8 103,9July 98,9 96,5 100,1 101,7August 100,4 99,7 103,8 97,3September 101,0 101,7 100,2 97,5October 101,8 103,1 103,6 99,8November 100,2 100,7 101,0 95,8December 99,1 98,4 100,3 95,620092) January 102,1 100,5 103,4 103,1February 101,2 100,7 100,4 106,3March 100,4 100,6 100,1 100,4April 100,9 100,7 100,4 101,3May 102,1 103,8 100,3 103,6June 100,0 99,0 99,9 101,7July 99,1 96,8 100,9 99,9August 99,9 99,0 100,1 100,7September 100,3 100,2 100,6 100,5October 99,8 99,4 100,2 99,5November 100,8 101,2 100,1 102,2December 99,8 99,0 100,2 100,220102) January 100,5 99,5 100,1 100,7February 100,3 99,6 100,8 100,9March 101,2 100,5 105,3 101,1April 100,6 100,6 100,1 101,5May 101,5 102,8 100,0 102,0June 100,4 100,1 100,8 100,5July 100,0 98,8 100,9 100,9August 101,4 102,6 100,6 100,1September 101,3 102,0 100,9 100,3October 101,0 101,4 100,9 100,5November 101,5 102,2 102,5 100,8December 100,3 100,1 100,2 99,920112) January 101,4 102,0 100,2 102,4February 101,5 103,1 100,6 100,9March 102,6 105,3 100,5 100,5April 101,1 100 105,7 101,5May 100,4 100,4 100 100,7June 99,7 98,9 100,2 100,6

1) End of period2) Previous month=100Source: RSO

MIN

ISTR

Y O

F FI

NA

NCE

BULL

ETIN

JUN

E 20

11

17

June 2011

Table 4. Consumer prices

Indices, previous month=100June 2011Dec. 2010 2010 2011

December January February March April May June

TOTAL 100,3 101,4 101,5 102,6 101,1 100,4 99,7 106,8

Core infl a on 100,8 100,8 101,3 102,0 100,4 100,3 100,3 105,2

Oil deriva ves 100,0 102,3 101,6 101,2 103,4 101,5 100,6 111,1

Fruits and vegetables 95,7 103,4 106,9 113,3 96,9 101,4 92,5 113,9

Administra ve prices 100,4 102,4 100,5 101,8 103,9 100,1 100,2 109,1

Electricity 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 113,5 100,0 100,0 113,5

Gas 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

Housing, public-u li es services2 100,4 100,5 102,3 100,4 101,2 100,1 100,5 105,1

Social security services 100,1 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,3 100,0 100,0 100,3

Transport services3 100,0 111,8 100,4 100,7 100,0 99,9 100,7 113,7

Postal services 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

TV subscrip on 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

Tobacco 100,0 110,5 100,0 107,8 97,4 100,0 100,0 116,0

Medicines 102,4 100,4 101,3 102,1 101,4 100,6 100,5 106,4

Other 99,8 100,2 100,0 100,9 100,1 100,0 100,0 101,2

1 Star ng from 2011, core infl a on is calculated in line with the new methodology. Core infl a on since 2007 has therefore been adequately recalculated. 2 Water for household, waste-water, taking out rubbish from fl at, central heathing. 3 Bus city transport, monthly cket, railway passenger transport, airway passenger transport. Source: RSO

0,30

0,060,00

0,07

Core

infla

tion

Adm

inist

rativ

epr

ices

Oil

deriv

ativ

es

Frui

tsan

dve

geta

bles

0,5

0,0

0,5

Consumer prices in June 2010percentage points

0,18

0,04 0,02

0,490,5

0,0

0,5

Core

infla

tion

Adm

inist

rativ

epr

ices

Oil

deriv

ativ

es

Frui

tsan

dve

geta

bles

Consumer prices in June 2011percentage points

18

Ministry of Finance

Table 5. Balance of Payments of the Republic of Serbia1in mill. EU

2010 January February March April May January-May

Jan-Dec 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

I. CURRENT ACCOUNT -2.081,9 -140,0 -273,0 -306,9 -232,3 -313,0 -338,4 -137,4 -191,4 -189,7 -275,5 -1.086,9 -1.310,7

CURRENT ACCOUNT (without offi cial transfers) -2.275,1 -145,6 -281,1 -319,3 -238,5 -324,2 -372,9 -139,7 -207,5 -196,6 -288,5 -1.125,4 -1.388,5

1. Goods (1.1-1.2.)2 -4.773,3 -306,3 -404,8 -414,4 -374,3 -465,2 -538,2 -379,4 -405,4 -363,3 -473,4 -1.928,6 -2.196,1

1.1. Export, f.o.b. 7.402,5 410,2 536,7 467,5 643,7 595,7 771,2 573,1 715,1 609,8 678,8 2.656,3 3.345,5

1.2. Import, f.o.b. -12.175,8 -716,5 -941,5 -881,9 -1.018,0 -1.060,9 -1.309,4 -952,5 -1.120,5 -973,1 -1.152,2 -4.584,9 -5.541,6

2. Services (2.1.-2.2.) 5,3 -0,1 -1,4 -8,2 12,8 -10,4 16,2 3,3 25,3 10,2 -2,3 -5,1 50,6

2.1. Export 2.667,1 168,7 194,2 166,1 204,6 201,8 232,6 210,6 237,4 201,5 235,9 948,9 1.104,7

2.2. Import -2.661,8 -168,8 -195,6 -174,3 -191,8 -212,2 -216,4 -207,3 -212,0 -191,3 -238,2 -953,9 -1.054,1

3. Goods and services (3.1.-3.2.) -4.768,0 -306,4 -406,2 -422,5 -361,6 -475,6 -522,0 -376,1 -380,1 -353,1 -475,7 -1.933,7 -2.145,5

3.1. Export 10.069,6 578,9 730,9 633,7 848,3 797,5 1.003,8 783,7 952,5 811,3 914,7 3.605,1 4.450,2

3.2. Import -14.837,6 -885,3 -1.137,1 -1.056,2 -1.209,9 -1.273,1 -1.525,8 -1.159,8 -1.332,6 -1.164,5 -1.390,4 -5.538,8 -6.595,7

4. Income -669,9 10,9 10,6 -80,1 -45,4 -97,5 -77,4 -64,4 -101,4 -54,3 -67,7 -285,5 -281,3

4.1. Receipts 437,7 59,7 55,4 21,7 19,5 25,3 26,5 43,0 32,9 21,0 23,6 170,7 157,9

4.2. Payments -1.107,5 -48,8 -44,8 -101,8 -65,0 -122,8 -103,9 -107,4 -134,3 -75,3 -91,3 -456,2 -439,3

5. Current transfers 3.356,0 155,6 122,6 195,8 174,7 260,1 261,0 303,1 290,1 217,8 267,8 1.132,2 1.116,2

5.1. Receipts 3.624,0 176,1 174,5 212,5 197,6 289,7 284,4 332,2 320,4 236,1 290,1 1.246,6 1.267,1

5.2. Payments -268,0 -20,6 -51,9 -16,7 -23,0 -29,6 -23,5 -29,2 -30,3 -18,4 -22,3 -114,4 -150,9

II. CAPITAL ACCOUNT 0,9 -0,3 -0,1 0,0 0,1 0,8 -1,2 -0,1 0,0 -0,1 0,0 0,3 -1,2

1. Receipts 3,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,9 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,1 1,0 0,5

2. Payments -2,1 -0,4 -0,1 0,0 -0,2 -0,1 -1,3 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 0,0 -0,7 -1,8

III. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 2.031,6 129,5 119,5 282,0 145,6 286,2 295,6 80,7 122,9 222,9 332,7 1.001,3 1.016,3

1. Direct investment, net 860,1 123,1 45,0 29,3 42,4 131,1 219,1 75,2 112,9 34,8 66,2 393,6 485,7

2. Por olio investment, net 38,8 30,6 35,2 -3,0 299,4 10,4 185,4 21,8 84,1 -2,5 96,2 57,2 700,2

3. Other investment 204,0 -58,3 56,9 92,9 0,2 -25,1 -155,2 244,9 38,7 -94,3 149,3 160,1 89,9

4. Reserves3 928,7 34,1 -17,6 162,8 -196,4 169,7 46,3 -261,1 -112,8 284,9 21,0 390,4 -259,5

IV ERRORS AND OMISSIONS, net 49,4 10,8 153,7 24,9 86,6 26,0 44,1 56,7 68,5 -33,0 -57,2 85,3 295,6

V OVERALL BALANCE -928,7 -34,1 17,6 -162,8 196,4 -169,7 -46,3 261,1 112,8 -284,9 -21,0 -390,4 259,5

1 According to IMF motodology.2 Since January 1st 2010 and in accordance with UN Sta s cal Commission recommenda ons, general trade system has been introduced, presen ng broader exports and imports concept and involving overall goods that enter or exit the economic territory of the country, except the transit goods. Besides transit, excluded are also the temporary commodity transac ons (fairs, test samples, etc.). According to general trade system, goods are imported, i.e. exported into: а) free circula ng area, rooms for internal processing or industrial free zones; b) customs storage places. General trade system provides be er adjustment to measures and criteria of the System of Na onal Accounts and Balance of Payment. From January 1st 2010, new version of Standard Interna onal Trade Classifi ca on - SITC Rev 4 has been used. 3 Gross foreign reserves of NBS (Reserve assets) and commercial banks (Currency and deposits) without exchanges rate adjustments.Source: NBS

19

June 2011

Table 6. External debt1in mill. EUR

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 May.2011

Stock of external debt 10.968 9.402 9.678 9.466 12.196 14.182 17.139 21.088 22.487 23.786 22.897

External debt/GDP 85,5 58,7 55,9 49,8 60,1 60,9 60,2 64,6 77,9 82,12 -

Offi cial sector 10.257 8.628 8.527 7.283 7.892 6.592 6.285 6.521 7.764 9.076 9.181

Private sector 712 774 1.151 2.183 4.304 7.590 10.854 14.568 14.724 14.710 13.716

Banks 105 47 168 747 1.754 3.477 3.606 3.524 4.310 5.093 4.399

Enterprises 607 727 984 1.436 2.550 4.113 7.248 11.044 10.414 9.617 9.317

Source: NBS1 Since September 2010 methodology for the external debt sta s cs has been changed so that the external public debt includes obliga ons under the IMF SDR alloca on, which was used in December 2009, as well as capitalized interest to Paris Club creditors, while the loans concluded before December 20, 2000, under which the payments have not been eff ected, are excluded from the external debt of the private sector.2 Es ma on

721

111

429

781 831

656

127

211

643

251

113

366

284

136176

265307

11366

200

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 April May

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

In million EUR Foreign direct investments, net

2005 June; 314,6

2006 June; 434,0

2007 June; 573,4

2008 June; 671,4

2009 June; 549,8

2010 June; 681,8

2011 June; 767,7

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900Fe

brua

ry

April

June

Augu

st

Octo

ber

Dece

mbe

r

Febr

uary

April

June

Augu

st

Octo

ber

Dece

mbe

r

Febr

uary

April

June

Augu

st

Octo

ber

Dece

mbe

r

Febr

uary

April

June

Augu

st

Octo

ber

Dece

mbe

r

Febr

uary

April

June

Augu

st

Octo

ber

Dece

mbe

r

Febr

uary

April

June

Augu

st

Octo

ber

Dece

mbe

r

Febr

uary

April

June

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

In million EUR Export

20

Ministry of Finance

Ta ble 7. Monetary Survey, in million dinars, end of period

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Net foreign assets -96.343 132.114 170.227 160.868 218.886 407.565 563.315 483.707 570.534 507.330

Foreign assets 506.371 196.847 257.601 313.353 491.883 770.999 876.889 847.473 1.185.455 1.287.386

NBS 423.250 142.883 198.015 248.376 424.844 715.114 765.739 724.755 1.022.861 1.063.062

Banks 83.121 53.964 59.586 64.977 67.039 55.885 111.150 122.718 162.594 224.324

Foreign liabili es (-) -602.714 -64.733 -87.373 -152.485 -272.997 -363.434 -313.574 -363.766 -614.921 -780.056

NBS -394.740 -47.610 -64.093 -69.260 -81.873 -55.692 -13.805 -14.063 -114.585 -170.341

Banks -207.974 -17.123 -23.280 -83.225 -191.124 -307.742 -299.769 -349.703 -500.336 -609.715

Net domes c assets 389.979 204.800 280.920 412.131 560.818 574.894 800.348 1.128.685 1.412.716 1.749.771

Domes c credit 275.143 185.134 228.389 348.617 490.467 504.961 722.019 1.073.069 1.301.884 1.722.549

Net claims on government 7.961 3.851 -9.153 5.952 -27.831 -104.210 -112.228 -53.042 -4.340 65.644

Credit to government 23.320 35.192 32.255 44.001 40.106 34.897 19.204 20.367 119.164 193.983

Dinar credit 21.560 26.370 22.500 30.008 21.272 18.271 10.935 12.928 101.554 149.201

NBS 14.685 21.295 19.760 22.407 16.330 16.450 10.811 10.892 11.290 1.315

Banks 6.875 5.075 2.739 7.601 4.942 1.821 124 2.036 90.264 147.887

Foreign currency credit 1.760 8.822 9.756 13.993 18.834 16.626 8.269 7.439 17.610 44.782

NBS 1.479 1.509 0 0 181 0 0 21 3 4

Banks 281 7.313 9.756 13.993 18.653 16.626 8.269 7.418 17.607 44.777

Government deposits (-) -15.359 -31.341 -41.408 -38.049 -67.938 -139.107 -131.432 -73.409 -123.504 -128.339

Dinar deposits -7.653 -15.508 -17.934 -24.484 -43.605 -31.197 -45.094 -27.127 -67.732 -58.060

NBS -3.612 -5.009 -12.998 -22.966 -40.718 -19.678 -29.200 -19.722 -62.987 -54.016

Banks -4.041 -10.499 -4.936 -1.518 -2.887 -11.519 -15.894 -7.405 -4.745 -4.044

Foreign currency deposits -7.706 -15.833 -23.474 -13.565 -24.333 -107.910 -86.338 -46.282 -55.772 -70.279

NBS -7.259 -6.159 -18.107 -9.990 -18.806 -103.443 -81.998 -40.705 -49.253 -53.695

Banks -447 -9.674 -5.367 -3.575 -5.527 -4.467 -4.340 -5.577 -6.519 -16.584

Credit to non-government sectors 267.182 181.283 237.541 342.665 518.299 609.171 834.247 1.126.111 1.306.224 1.656.905

Households 5.277 16.139 29.536 66.514 132.146 203.631 305.967 382.382 418.854 571.946

Economic organiza ons 247.829 153.643 197.319 264.488 370.775 381.435 508.167 711.433 851.018 1.030.757

Other fi nancial corpora ons 3.154 8.392 7.446 8.216 8.868 14.400 6.659 19.643 18.864 35.433

Local government 1.627 593 1.410 1.269 2.208 5.033 7.008 9.240 11.533 18.106

Non-profi t and other organiza ons 9.295 2.516 1.830 2.179 4.301 4.672 6.446 3.413 5.955 663

Other assets, net 114.836 19.666 52.531 63.514 70.351 69.933 78.329 47.138 110.832 27.222

Deposit, capital and provisioning 293.636 336.914 451.147 572.998 779.704 982.459 1.363.663 1.612.392 1.983.250 2.257.101

Money supply М3 125.414 191.492 244.731 322.876 458.870 634.470 903.871 992.151 1.203.981 1.360.777

Money supply М2 68.097 110.896 124.895 146.209 192.180 278.966 390.485 395.025 436.784 410.495

Money supply М1 58.233 93.815 99.303 111.258 144.949 200.090 248.873 240.744 258.442 253.286

Currency in circula on 25.266 43.719 42.980 45.165 53.650 68.461 77.000 89.956 95.522 91.750

Sight deposits 32.967 50.096 56.323 66.093 91.299 131.629 171.873 151.013 162.920 161.536

Dinar me an savings deposits 9.864 17.081 25.592 34.951 47.231 78.876 141.612 154.119 178.342 157.209

Foreign currency deposits 57.317 80.596 119.837 176.667 266.690 355.504 513.386 597.445 767.197 950.282

Capital accounts -140.560 83.099 117.788 142.753 181.772 242.254 356.256 505.188 633.430 722.026

NBS 8.090 6.992 17.418 33.580 41.450 7.454 6.715 63.451 166.316 202.334

Banks -148.650 76.107 100.370 109.173 140.322 234.800 349.541 441.737 467.114 519.692

Provisioning for losses 308.782 62.323 88.628 107.369 139.062 105.735 103.536 114.671 145.839 174.298

Anali cal items Net monetary eff ects of foreign currency transac ons -104.049 116.281 146.753 147.303 194.553 299.655 476.977 437.425 514.762 437.051 Net domes c assets excluding foreign currency government deposits

397.685 220.633 304.394 425.696 585.151 682.804 886.686 1.174.967 1.468.488 1.820.050

Net credit to non-government sectors 232.048 166.207 173.844 263.984 415.368 531.570 758.572 1.027.307 1.176.849 1.495.639

Annual growth rates

М3 92,3% 52,7% 27,8% 31,9% 42,1% 40,0% 42,5% 9,8% 21,3% 12,9

М2 107,0% 62,9% 12,6% 17,1% 31,4% 47,0% 40,0% 1,2% 10,6% -6,0

М1 115,5% 61,1% 5,9% 12,0% 30,3% 38,0% 24,4% -3,2% 7,3% -2,0

Domes c credit

Credit to government 82,7 50,9 -8,3 36,4 -8,9 -13,0 -45,0 6,1 485,1 62,8

Credit to households 85,2 205,8 83,0 125,2 98,7 54,1 50,3 25,0 9,5 26,1

Credit to economic organiza ons 15,7 -38,0 28,4 34,0 40,2 2,9 33,2 40,0 19,8 26,3

Source: NBS

21

June 2011

Tab le 8. Main monetary indicators, end of period in million RSD

Dinar reserve moneyMoney supply

M1Money supply

M2 Money supply M3

Total domes c credits to economic organiza ons and

households

Credit to economic

organiza ons

Credit to households

2001 41.643 58.233 68.097 125.414 253.106 247.829 5.277

2002 69.543 93.815 110.896 191.492 169.782 153.643 16.139

2003 72.267 99.303 124.895 244.731 226.855 197.319 29.536

2004 82.383 111.258 146.209 322.876 331.002 264.488 66.514

2005 100.341 144.949 192.180 458.870 502.921 370.775 132.146

2006 143.409 200.090 278.966 634.470 585.066 381.435 203.631

2007 169.020 248.873 390.485 903.871 814.134 508.167 305.967

2008 319.781 240.744 395.025 992.151 1.092.667 710.244 382.423

2009 254.268 258.427 436.768 1.205.570 1.269.778 850.854 418.924

2010 188.161 253.286 410.495 1.360.777 1.602.703 1.030.757 571.946

2009

January 274.717 211.775 368.397 1.005.086 1.141.664 694.560 447.104

February 299.145 227.176 387.788 1.026.130 1.155.267 711.441 443.826

March 275.350 209.990 377.863 1.015.151 1.180.131 736.425 443.706

April 287.842 215.850 388.243 1.036.744 1.192.379 746.631 445.748

May 267.103 221.237 395.172 1.042.153 1.190.403 747.103 443.300

June 255.374 222.938 400.874 1.061.425 1.183.832 745.335 438.497

July 229.934 225.665 408.620 1.065.592 1.197.567 758.344 439.223

August 229.292 232.237 419.267 1.081.084 1.204.864 764.267 440.597

September 228.346 231.023 416.996 1.087.244 1.210.893 768.237 442.656

October 218.347 228.058 418.045 1.099.559 1.223.549 776.360 447.189

November 205.107 229.382 421.014 1.154.967 1.247.746 793.709 454.037

December 254.268 258.427 436.768 1.205.570 1.267.343 804.998 462.345

2010

January 212.344 237.032 416.179 1.209.331 1.299.619 826.755 472.864

February 228.716 234.301 409.728 1.216.615 1.321.495 842.925 478.570

March 214.403 224.947 403.722 1.217.759 1.345.044 858.135 486.909

April 194.890 229.446 410.771 1.226.461 1.360.391 869.747 490.644

May 195.011 232.808 419.367 1.278.762 1.418.948 906.913 512.035

June 187.226 234.003 417.948 1.296.183 1.471.217 935.956 535.261

July 195.407 240.643 430.847 1.331.405 1.505.523 958.969 546.554

August 187.673 238.309 396.711 1.288.858 1.509.721 955.785 553.936

September 185.564 242.870 402.995 1.306.003 1.530.169 971.016 559.153

October 195.829 248.944 412.160 1.330.165 1.562.118 996.403 565.715

November 186.973 236.461 406.367 1.361.851 1.588.041 1.015.700 572.341

December 188.161 253.286 410.495 1.360.777 1.599.299 1.028.094 571.205

2011

January 168.927 223.930 375.083 1.323.993 1.586.566 1.021.564 565.002

February 180.950 228.810 378.554 1.308.787 1.577.047 1.016.805 560.242

March 170.164 230.039 382.714 1.315.641 1.601.226 1.036.737 564.489

April 190.145 233.023 387.007 1.287.216 1.574.421 1.022.003 552.418

May 174.508 233.426 390.374 1.287.252 1.570.732 1.016.475 554.257

June 182.513 236.881 401.970 1.344.773 1.638.466 1.055.194 583.272

Source: NBS

22

Ministry of Finance

Tabl e 9. Household savings, end of period, in million EUR

Total household savings Dinar savings Foreign exchange savings

2002 813 58 755

2003 1.100 62 1.038

2004 1.465 40 1.425

2005 2.275 36 2.239

2006 3.414 68 3.346

2007 5.029 125 4.903

2008 4.895 119 4.775

2009 6.143 129 6.014

2010 7.232 127 7.106

2009

January 4.955 108 4.847

February 5.022 107 4.915

March 4.975 105 4.871

April 4.988 103 4.885

May 5.033 111 4.922

June 5.168 117 5.051

July 5.294 120 5.174

August 5.363 120 5.244

September 5.437 125 5.312

October 5.496 123 5.373

November 5.994 126 5.868

December 6.143 129 6.014

2010

January 6.224 130 6.094

February 6.278 129 6.149

March 6.328 124 6.204

April 6.403 127 6.276

May 6.433 123 6.309

June 6.514 119 6.395

July 6.595 114 6.481

August 6.669 112 6.558

September 6.692 108 6.584

October 6.710 102 6.608

November 7.134 126 7.008

December 7.232 127 7.106

2011

January 7.297 127 7.170

February 7.339 129 7.210

March 7.361 132 7.229

April 7.412 140 7.271

May 7.509 140 7.369

June 7.562 133 7.429

Source: NBS

23

June 2011

Table 10. Total number of employed and unemployed

Avearge employment level1, 2 Avearge employment level in public sector1, 2 Job seekers, end of periodUnemployment level, end of

period

2001 2.101.668 - 780.541 -

2002 2.066.721 505.740 904.494 -

2003 2.041.395 506.315 944.939 -

2004 2.050.854 508.427 969.888 859.728

2005 2.068.964 506.023 990.669 895.697

2006 2.025.627 479.823 1.011.139 916.257

2007 2.002.344 475.985 850.802 785.099

2008 1.999.476 481.335 794.000 727.621

2009 1.889.085 475.883 812.350 730.372

2010 1.795.774 470.660 802.840 729.520

2009

January 1.983.139 486.311 803.000 739.213

February 1.980.765 475.210 817.697 746.237

March 1.910.913 478.303 830.392 758.387

April 1.907.209 478.792 834.688 762.674

May 1.899.596 478.092 841.265 767.547

June 1.896.313 477.995 838.167 763.062

July 1.893.156 477.197 832.343 756.662

August 1.886.257 475.437 823.515 747.456

September 1.867.256 473.462 816.057 737.160

October 1.864.095 475.843 806.068 727.142

November 1.861.362 475.673 803.171 723.350

December 1.857.291 475.297 812.350 730.372

2010

January 1.850.871 473.703 835.476 751.590

February 1.846.403 471.586 852.426 767.418

March 1.816.959 471.764 865.892 778.505

April 1.814.822 471.742 859.931 772.184

May 1.812.985 472.150 850.954 762.592

June 1.810.959 472.037 835.166 746.848

July 1.808.408 471.498 825.272 737.048

August 1.805.651 469.488 811.854 724.270

September 1.774.589 469.555 809.595 721.043

October 1.774.426 471.409 806.168 717.503

November 1.774.370 471.456 801.339 722.142

December 1.774.193 471.553 802.840 729.520

2011

January 1.773.930 469.407 820.179 750.726

February 1.773.438 468.761 834.573 763.550

March 1.774.223 468.820 846.699 773.896

April 1.774.407 470.702 843.578 769.760

May 1.774.695 470.075 839.021 764.122

June 1.755.238 469.961 832.177 756.255

1 Without military and police 2 New methodology for salaries, which is applied from 2009. as RSO extended coverage of observa on units. In calcula on of average salaries, beside salaries paid to employees in enterprises, ins tu ons and organiza ons, into account are taken also salaries paid to enterpreneurs. 3 RSO corrected the data on the number of private entrepreneurs and employed by them from March 2009, inter alia, because of regula on of evidence of Republic ins tute for health insurance. Source: RSO

24

Ministry of Finance

Table 11. Average net salaries and average pension benefi ts, in RSD

Average net salaries1 Public sectorPublic state

owned enterprises

Public local enterprises

Administra on, all levels

Educa on and culture

Health and social work

Average pension benefi ts

2001 6.078 - - - - - - 4.505

2002 9.208 11.666 13.860 11.257 12.899 10.028 10.609 6.134

2003 11.500 14.757 16.868 15.456 16.591 13.304 13.037 7.393

2004 14.108 17.662 19.983 19.212 19.414 15.709 15.910 8.725

2005 17.443 20.876 23.165 22.746 23.692 19.235 18.426 10.568

2006 21.707 25.232 28.737 26.162 28.887 23.041 22.542 12.151

2007 27.759 32.392 37.081 30.448 35.606 29.468 31.020 13.612

2008 32.746 37.284 42.106 35.060 40.548 35.071 35.329 17.660

2009 31.733 38.885 44.555 37.065 41.592 36.518 36.901 19.788

2010 34.142 39.810 46.435 38.630 43.858 36.929 36.996 19.890

2009

January 28.877 35.440 44.763 36.502 41.982 35.686 25.407 19.779

February 31.121 38.485 44.390 36.285 40.014 35.952 37.215 19.780

March 30.362 38.276 42.344 36.514 41.341 36.630 36.497 19.781

April 32.571 39.853 45.010 38.872 44.015 36.383 38.198 19.781

May 31.086 38.606 45.420 36.098 38.886 36.918 36.696 19.784

June 31.768 38.739 44.148 36.654 41.159 36.580 36.998 19.782

July 32.553 39.334 45.811 37.310 42.572 36.738 36.913 19.784

August 31.338 38.416 44.219 35.897 40.232 36.218 36.888 19.783

September 31.319 38.350 43.907 36.889 39.601 36.657 36.373 19.796

October 31.734 38.814 44.606 37.820 41.559 36.357 36.549 19.799

November 31.576 38.501 43.925 37.014 40.743 36.214 36.729 19.802

December 36.789 43.886 46.107 38.961 46.969 37.886 48.348 19.807

2010

January 29.929 35.201 48.038 35.725 37.864 35.723 25.415 19.821

February 32.336 39.077 45.608 36.541 42.973 36.334 36.776 19.832

March 33.508 40.198 47.047 39.934 42.946 36.845 37.840 19.836

April 34.952 40.834 48.247 39.539 48.306 36.774 37.126 19.839

May 33.463 39.199 46.873 37.603 39.784 36.710 37.089 19.848

June 34.161 39.757 47.885 37.142 42.592 37.345 36.709 19.853

July 34.591 39.545 43.576 39.347 44.037 37.165 37.260 19.856

August 33.955 39.486 44.936 39.011 43.444 36.903 36.866 19.859

September 34.570 39.915 46.615 38.975 43.511 37.162 37.025 19.873

October 34.422 39.408 45.122 37.787 44.293 36.703 36.843 19.880

November 34.444 39.855 45.936 39.992 44.451 36.881 36.771 19.889

December 39.580 45.265 47.308 41.990 52.171 38.604 48.110 20.292

2011

January 34.009 39.298 60.158 37.722 45.679 36.633 27.126 20.367

February 35.538 40.980 48.245 39.496 45.684 37.278 38.453 20.372

March 35.777 40.877 50.861 39.751 45.136 35.920 37.905 20.374

April 39.298 46.378 51.887 40.741 48.827 39.278 50.477 21.495

May 35.362 40.724 53.953 41.000 45.873 39.685 31.507 21.500

June 39.322 44.850 56.522 41.205 50.533 40.054 41.120 21.501

Source: RSO, PF 1 New methodology for salaries, which is applied from 2009. as RSO extended coverage of observa on units. In calcula on of average salaries, beside salaries paid to employees in enterprises, ins tu ons and organiza ons, into account are taken also salaries paid to enterpreneurs.

25

June 2011

Table 12. Average net salaries and average pension benefi ts, annual real growth rates

Average net salaries1 Public sectorPublic state

owned enterprises

Public local enterprises

Administra on, all levels

Educa on and culture

Health and social work

Average pension benefi ts

2001 16,5 - - - - - - 17,9

2002 29,9 - - - - - - 16,8

2003 13,6 15,1 10,7 24,9 17,0 20,7 11,8 9,7

2004 10,1 7,4 6,3 11,6 5,0 6,0 9,5 5,9

2005 6,4 1,7 -0,2 1,9 5,0 5,4 -0,3 4,2

2006 11,4 8,2 11,1 3,0 9,2 7,2 9,5 2,9

2007 19,5 20,0 20,6 8,8 15,2 19,5 28,6 4,7

2008 3,9 1,4 0,0 1,5 0,3 4,9 0,3 14,3

2009 0,2 -4,0 -2,6 -2,7 -5,5 -4,1 -3,8 3,2

2010 0,7 -4,1 -2,4 -2,4 -1,3 -5,3 -6,1 -5,9

2009

January 3,8 0,4 1,8 4,0 3,5 -3,2 -0,3 11,3

February 1,8 -2,2 -2,1 -1,5 -5,6 -2,9 1,0 10,6

March 1,6 -1,0 -3,4 0,8 2,2 0,7 -2,1 11,8

April 3,8 0,2 2,1 4,0 -5,1 -1,1 1,8 5,1

May 0,8 -3,8 -0,8 -3,2 -9,2 -1,9 -4,3 4,8

June 1,5 -2,0 -1,9 -1,1 -2,2 -2,6 -1,0 5,5

July 2,5 -3,0 0,5 -3,5 -4,4 -4,3 -2,8 5,3

August -1,4 -4,7 -3,7 -6,1 -8,1 -4,2 -2,7 5,8

September -0,8 -3,2 -2,1 -3,3 -6,0 -2,0 -2,8 6,5

October -1,0 -5,3 -1,3 -2,5 -8,7 -4,2 -7,9 -4,8

November -0,4 -5,3 -5,6 -2,7 -6,4 -6,4 -3,7 -5,5

December 0,5 -6,6 -4,8 -6,4 -5,7 -7,7 -7,3 -6,1

2010

January -1,1 -5,2 2,4 -6,6 -13,9 -4,5 -4,6 -4,4

February 0,3 -2,0 -0,8 -2,8 3,7 -2,4 -4,6 -3,5

March 5,7 0,6 6,4 4,8 -0,5 -3,7 -0,7 -4,2

April 3,1 -1,5 3,1 -2,2 5,5 -2,8 -6,5 -3,8

May 3,7 -2,2 -0,6 0,4 -1,4 -4,2 -2,6 -3,3

June 3,7 -1,0 4,6 -2,3 -0,2 -1,6 -4,3 -3,7

July 1,8 -3,7 -8,9 1,0 -0,9 -3,1 -3,3 -4,5

August 2,0 -3,3 -4,4 2,2 1,6 -4,1 -6,0 -5,8

September 3,0 -2,9 -1,0 -1,4 2,5 -5,4 -5,0 -6,8

October -0,1 -6,5 -6,9 -8,0 -1,9 -7,0 -7,2 -7,8

November -0,4 -5,5 -4,5 -1,3 -0,4 -7,0 -8,6 -8,4

December -2,5 -6,6 -7,1 -2,4 0,6 -7,7 -9,9 -7,1

2011

January 2,2 0,4 12,6 -5,0 8,5 -7,8 -4,0 -7,6

February -2,4 -6,9 -6,1 -4,0 -5,6 -8,9 -7,1 -8,8

March -6,4 -10,9 -5,3 -12,8 -7,9 -14,6 -12,2 -10,0

April -2,0 -1,0 -6,2 -10,2 -11,9 -6,9 18,5 -5,5

May -6,8 -8,4 1,5 -3,9 1,7 -4,7 -25,1 -4,5

June 2,1 0,1 4,7 -1,6 5,3 -4,8 -0,6 -3,9

Source: RSO, PF

26

Ministry of Finance

Table 13. Average Salaries and Wages in State Owned Public U li es in dinars

Salaries and Wages Net Salaries and Wages*

2005 32.994 22.4632006 43.362 29.5232007 50.367 35.9272008 57.960 41.5852009 62.798 44.9462010 65.888 46.6152009

January 64.987 44.608February 59.198 40.509March 62.031 44.092April 64.485 45.660May 61.793 43.967June 62.005 44.084July 65.263 48.091August 61.166 45.273September 62.278 46.128October 61.659 45.578November 60.341 42.896December 68.365 48.462

2010 January 64.059 45.167February 62.553 44.263March 66.054 46.856April 67.289 47.619May 63.235 44.773June 62.585 44.425July 63.883 45.288August 62.723 44.498September 63.859 45.280October 61.581 43.685November 64.368 45.630December 88.462 61.898

2011 January 68.502 48.376February 65.718 46.557March 70.469 50.012April 71.699 50.742May 75.006 53.456June 72.368 51.638

*Calcula on based on Ministry of Labor and Social Policy methodologySource: MOF

27

June 2011

Table 14: Results of priva za on

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 I-VI 2011 TOTAL

Number of sold enterprises

Tender 11 16 7 11 14 10 13 5 2 1 90

Auc on 152 514 185 158 159 178 147 48 20 1 1.562

Capital market 48 107 45 147 102 120 105 40 13 7 734

Total 211 637 237 316 275 308 265 93 35 9 2.386

Number of employees

Tender 11.719 13.966 9.811 6.780 10.308 6.076 6.792 2.304 178 238 68.172

Auc on 10.799 42.740 17.770 17.981 17.128 15.616 4.841 2.434 610 104 130.023

Capital market 14.802 20.183 11.227 34.132 15.931 18.770 14.623 4.377 1.141 1.178 135.186

Total 37.320 76.889 38.808 58.893 43.367 40.462 26.256 9.115 1.929 1.520 334.559

in million EUR

Sale price

Tender 200,7 594,7 11,2 96,1 62,7 53,8 50,5 3,8 0,5 0,2 1.074,1

Auc on 35,1 177,2 90,5 146,5 102,4 184,1 104,9 34,5 6,7 0,1 882,0

Capital market 83,0 67,8 52,2 125,2 70,1 162,1 91,7 10,5 11,6 5,3 679,6

Total 318,8 839,7 153,9 367,8 235,2 400,1 247,1 48,8 18,8 5,6 2.635,7

Investment

Tender 303,2 271,1 66,1 69,5 89,4 57,3 55,3 15,6 0,0 3,5 931,1

Auc on 10,9 48,7 33,5 29,0 35,0 28,4 6,5 9,0 1,2 0,0 202,3

Capital market 5,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 5,9

Total 320,1 319,8 99,6 98,5 124,4 85,7 61,9 24,6 1,2 3,5 1.139,2

Social program

Tender 145,8 128,3 2,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 276,7

Auc on 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Capital market 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Total 145,8 128,3 2,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 276,7

Source: Priva za on Agency

28

Ministry of Finance

0200400600800

1.0001.2001.4001.6001.800

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun

2009 2010 2011

Development on Belgrade Stock Exchange, indices

BELEXline BELEX15

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun

2009 2010 2011

Market Capitalization on Belgrade Stock Exchange, in bill. dinars

RS Bonds Shares

0102030405060708090

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun

2009 2010 2011

%

FIT Foreign Investors Participation in Total TurnoverFIS Foreign Investors Participation in Total Turnover of BondsFIB Foreign Investors Participation in Total Turnover of Shares

Foreign Investors Participation in Total Turnover on Belgrade Stock Exchange

29

June 2011

Table 15. Turnover of Securi es on Belgrade Stock Exchange

Number of transac ons In mill. dinars Growth rates of turnover

I-VI 2010 I-VI 2011 I-VI 2010 I-VI 2011 VI 2011XII 2010VI 2011VI 2010

I-VI 2011I-VI 2010

Total turnover 27.912 2.509.096 9.573 17.312 41,0% 174,3% 80,8%

RS Bonds 4.108 2.858 1.530 1.444 -54,7% -53,6% -5,7%

Shares 23.804 2.506.238 8.044 15.868 52,4% 231,9% 97,3%

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

ar Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov De

cJa

nFe

bM

ar Apr

May Jun

2009 2010 2011

State of Debt on Issuance of Treasury Bills, in mill. dinars

6,6%

16,3%

9,6%

21,3%

23,7%

12,1%

2,9%7,6%

Structure of debt on Issued Treasury Bills, June 2011

3 months 6 months 12 months 53W 18 months 24 months 36M 6 months EUR indexed

30

Ministry of Finance

Table 16. Auc on of State Treasury Bills

Three months Six months Twelve months

Auc on Date

Amount Off ered

Submi ed Bids

Average Discount

Rate

Auc on Date

Amount Off ered

Submi ed Bids

Average Discount

Rate

Auc on Date

Amount Off ered

Submi ed Bids

Average Discount

RateIn mill. dinars In mill. dinars In mill. dinars

2004 15.500 15.555 21,3% 2004 2.700 2.374 21,8% 2004 - - -

2005 24.900 40.598 17,0% 2005 2.980 5.756 18,3% 2005 - - -

2006 19.200 26.982 13,4% 2006 - - - 2006 - - -

2007 16.100 20.720 6,4% 2007 - - - 2007 - - -

2008 10.740 9.420 5,2% 2008 - - - 2008 - - -

2009 148.000 216.542 13,4% 2009 64.000 89.261 11,9% 2009 18.000 29.724 11,8%

2010 71.000 80.649 10,7% 2010 145.000 158.726 10,8% 2010 89.000 97.452 11,3%

2011

06.01.2011 3.000 3.228 13,9% 13.01.2011 4.000 3.026 15,0% 04.01.2011 2.000 1.983 15,1%

20.01.2011 3.000 3.464 13,9% 27.01.2011 4.000 8.536 14,5% 18.01.2011 2.000 3.000 15,1%

03.02.2011 3.000 5.028 13,5% 10.02.2011 4.000 7.346 13,4% 01.02.2011 2.000 7.638 14,5%

17.02.2011 3.000 3.709 12,9% 24.02.2011 4.000 3.827 13,0% 16.02.2011 2.000 5.503 13,5%

03.03.2011 3.000 3.725 12,8% 10.03.2011 3.000 5.292 12,8% 01.03.2011 3.000 9.846 13,1%

17.03.2011 3.000 3.709 12,8% 24.03.2011 3.000 1.818 13,0%

31.03.2011 3.000 3.756 13,0% 07.04.2011 2.000 3.031 13,3%

14.04.2011 2.000 5.456 13,0% 21.04.2011 2.000 4.956 13,2%

28.04.2011 5.000 6.295 13,1% 05.05.2011 2.000 4.373 13,2%

12.05.2011 2.000 3.929 13,0% 19.05.2011 2.000 3.624 12,7%

26.05.2011 5.000 8.600 12,8% 02.06.2011 2.000 4.304 12,5%

09.06.2011 2.000 2.599 12,5% 16.06.2011 2.000 3.443 12,2%

23.06.2011 2.000 3.958 12,0% 30.06.2011 2.000 5.474 11,9%

Fi y-three weeks Eighteen months Twenty-four months

Auc on Date

Amount Off ered

Submi ed Bids

Average Discount

Rate

Auc on Date

Amount Off ered

Submi ed Bids

Average Discount

Rate

Auc on Date

Amount Off ered

Submi ed Bids

Average Discount

RateIn mill. dinars In mill. dinars In mill. dinars

- - - - 2010 24.000 33.554 11,8% 2010 15.000 6.315 13,6%

2011 2011

15.03.2011 10.000 15.976 12,5% 11.01.2011 1.000 3.233 14,9% 25.01.2011 1.000 5.514 14,6%

29.03.2011 10.000 6.301 13,0% 08.02.2011 10.000 34.910 12,9% 22.02.2011 20.000 23.103 12,9%

05.04.2011 7.499 6.389 13,3% 08.03.2011 20.000 18.241 12,6% 22.03.2011 5.412 3.772 12,9%

19.04.2011 10.000 10.215 13,3% 12.04.2011 5.402 9.805 13,2% 26.04.2011 10.000 5.104 13,5%

17.05.2011 7.123 16.595 12,9% 24.05.2011 10.000 14.154 12,9% 07.06.2011 5.896 7.828 13,0%

31.05.2011 10.000 19.391 12,5% 14.06.2011 10.000 7.562 12,7%

29.06.2011 20.000 25.455 12,5%

Thirty-six months Six months - EUR indexed

Auc on Date

Amount Off ered

Submi ed Bids

Average Discount

Rate

Auc on Date

Amount Off ered

Submi ed Bids

Average Discount

RateIn mill. dinars In mill. dinars

- - - - 2010 21.000 31.928 5,3%

30.03.2011 20.000 2.703 14,1% - - - -

10.05.2011 17.697 4.025 14,3%

21.06.2011 14.772 2.300 13,9%

Source: MOF

FISCAL TRENDS

II

32

Ministry of FinanceTa

ble

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onso

lidat

ed g

ener

al g

over

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t, fr

om 2

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to 2

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in m

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