Automotive News Green Car Conference / Exhibition

Automotive News Green Car Conference / Exhibition

Bill Reinert

Advanced Technology Group,

Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC

June 14, 2011

Future Transportation Options

Product Planning for Advanced TechnologyProduct Planning for Advanced Technology

Future Energy

Regulatory

Future Society Future Vehicles

Today Today –– 22 4 Additional by 20504 Additional by 2050

New York, NY18.65M

Los Angeles, CA12.22M

2006 citymayors.com

Atlanta, GA

Miami, FLDallas – Fort Worth, TX

Chicago, IL

On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)

Urban Mass Transport Solutions Require Last Mile Considerations Urban Mass Transport Solutions Require Last Mile Considerations

Personal Rapid TransitLight Rail

On the Other Hand: Populations are SpreadingOn the Other Hand: Populations are Spreading

2/3 of US jobs, 3/4 economic output, are within 35 mi of 98 largest central business districts (CBD). Increasingly, they are moving to a ring 10-35 mi from CBD. (Brookings Inst.)

Geographic Distribution of Job Share 98 Metro Areas, 1998 - 2006

Most Commutes Are Suburb to SuburbMost Commutes Are Suburb to Suburb

Metropolitan Flow Map (Millions of Commuters)

Source Brookings Inst.

As Income Increases, Commuters are More Likely to Commute by Car and Drive Alone As Income Increases, Commuters are More Likely to Commute by Car and Drive Alone

(2000 Census (CIA III). Note >$125K is approx 10% of households)

Modal Usage by Household Income

Preliminary View of World Oil SupplyPreliminary View of World Oil Supply

Non-Opec crude oil

Opec crude oil

NGLs

Canadian tar sands

Biofuels

Spare capacity

Source Peter Wells

Reduction of Spare Capacity Opens the Door for Price Spikes

Reduction of Spare Capacity Opens the Door for Price Spikes

Supply

Price induced “new” supply or accelerated supply

Demand

Price spikes

Price

Supply

Price induced “new” supply or accelerated supply

Demand

Price spikes

Price

Source Peter Wells

Gas, gas, gas

© Peter R.A. Wells

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

bcf/d

USA Canada Saudi Arabia Algeria Russia Qatar IranUAE Mexico Kazakhstan Nigeria Norway Australia VenezuelaEgypt Indonesia UK India Kuwait Libya PeruArgentina Thailand Malaysia Brazil Azerbaijan Vietnam AngolaTrinidad & Tobago Uzbekistan Syria Iraq Ukraine Yemen Equatorial GuineaBrunei Turkmenistan Japan Netherlands Bolivia Hungary BahrainOman Chile Congo B Romania Croatia South Africa New ZealandAustria Tunisia Pakistan Ecuador Colombia France BangladeshMyanmar Poland Sweden Jordan Morocco Ghana Papua New GuineaMozambique/Tanzania Namibia China

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

bcf/d

Associated Non Associated conventional CBM Shale gas

› Growth in global gas supplies compared with growing shortage of oil will drive further decoupling of high price oil from low price gas in free markets (USA, UK, Asia?)

› Gas much less concentrated in OPEC› Clean, low emissions, good city fuel› CNG – powertrain same as gasoline/diesel with

similar range/tank› Issues around distribution (pipeline networks)

and in-vehicle storage

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Henry Hub gas price/WTI oil price

Energy parity with oil Decoupling of gas

from oil prices

Mitigation - Substitution within the crude oil system Mitigation - Substitution within the crude oil system

© Peter R.A. Wells

Liquid fuels are uniquely efficient for transportation – high energy per volume

75% of crude oil consumed in the USA is used for transportation (motor gasoline, jet fuel and diesel)

25% is 5 million b/d!

Only ~60% crude oil world wide used for transportation

40% is 25 million b/d - mainly heavy end of the barrel used for space heating, industry and power generation

Scope for substituting gas and nuclear in power generation and natural gas liquids in industrial uses

Major investment in refining and refining technology and access to cheap, clean hydrogen – nuclear power for hydrogen and process energy

Biofuels AnalysisBiofuels Analysis

lb per MMBTU of fuel

BTU input per BTU of fuel

per MMBTU of

fuel

per gallon of fuel

MMBTUe

of fuel per

acre

gallons of fuel per

acre

Fraction of U.S.

croplandAcresb

Transportation energy

displacementFuel

source

CO2emissionsa

Energy ratio

Water use (gallons)Land use

~1050.6655--very lowtens of

thousands0-100%MSW-based ethanol

0.24005080060004 %13 M50%

0.24005080060002%6.5 M25%absorbs CO2

waste

0.2400508006000< 1%2.5 M10%

Algaculture

2400.766900900757390%1.2 B50%

2400.766900900757120%380 M25%

2400.76690090075780%253 M10%Soybean

biodiesel fuel

3300.9219001493951072%228 M50%

3300.9219001463951535%112 M25%

3300.9219001463951515%46 M10%Cellulosic

ethanol

3500.98290022028360103%337 M50%

3500.9823001802837051%160 M25%

3500.9822001702837020%65 M10%Corn-based

ethanol

1750.088010--very lowa few

thousand0-100%Conventional

diesel

1750.05455--very lowa few

thousand0-100%Conventional

gasoline

Source: Kreider and Associates

20%

40%

5%10%

20%30%

25%

50% 50%

30%20%

95%90%

72%

35%

20%10%

35%

10%2%1%

10%5%3%

15%

97%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

60%70%80%90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040-2050

P HEV BEV/ FCV Conv HEV Conv Ga s

Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2 Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2

CARB expects BEV/FCV sales volume to surpass conventional gas by 2035 and reach 30% of mix by 2040

However, the above vision does not achieve the 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050; ZEVs will need to reach 100% of vehicle sales by 2040, to meet the 80% goal

CARB 2050 Vision

Sources: California Air Resources Board; “[ZEV] White Paper”

CARB Assumptions: Retail Price Increase Versus 2035 Hybrid2035 Plug-in Hybrid (30 mile AER) $3,4002035 Battery Electric (100 mile range) $5,5002035 Fuel Cell $2,800

EV Costs vs CO2 ReductionEV Costs vs CO2 Reduction

Comparison of Vehicle Powertrain TechnologiesComparison of Vehicle Comparison of Vehicle PowertrainPowertrain TechnologiesTechnologies

Lifetime energy use breakdown

FC HEV PHEV-20 EV-40 Gas

Material production 17% 17% 20% 25% 11%

Vehicle assembly 3% 3% 4% 5% 2%

Fuel production / transport 10% 10% 9% 5% 12%

Vehicle operation 63% 63% 59% 54% 71%

Vehicle maintenance 3% 3% 3% 4% 2%

Vehicle disposal 4% 4% 5% 7% 3%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

0 60 12020 100

50

100

40 80 140

Source: 1990 Nationwide personal transportation survey

(%)Cumulative percentage of personal automobile trips

Cumulative percentage oftravel distance energy

Approx. 20%

Average Daily Travel Distance per Vehicle (miles)

U.S. Driving Patterns

Even Modest Sized Batteries Can Cover Most US Trips Even Modest Sized Batteries Can Cover Most US Trips

Approx. 35%

80% Trips

Ubiquitous Charging Increases Electric VMTUbiquitous Charging Increases Electric VMT

Plug in Hybrids For Medium Distance Commuting

Operation SpecificationsOperation SpecificationsElectric Vehicle Charger Assembly

Engine

Electric Motor Electric Vehicle Charger Cable Assembly

HV Battery

AC 110 V to 220 V

Household Outlet

Max. OutputMax. OutputEngineEngine 98 HP (73 kW)98 HP (73 kW)MG2MG2 80 HP (60 kW)80 HP (60 kW)

In EV Driving Mode

Max. Speed Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)Range Approx. 13 miles (21 km )Approx. 13 miles (21 km )

Power SourcePower Source Household Electrical OutletsHousehold Electrical OutletsCharging TimeCharging Time Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)

HV Battery CoolingHV Battery Cooling

Additional fansNew ductwork 42 Temperature Sensors

Additional fansAdditional fans New ductworkNew ductwork 42 Temperature Sensors42 Temperature Sensors

Intake Air Ducts

HV Battery Cooling Blowers

HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for HV Battery Pack)

HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for Intake Air Duct)

Sub 2 Main Sub1DC/DC

Converter Cooling Blower

New Urban Mobility – EV ConceptNew Urban Mobility – EV Concept

Range: 50 milesCharge Time:~ 2.5hr/7.5hr (220V/110V)

2012

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Fox Business 2008 (70 Campuses); Innovative Mobility Research 2007 (current members), CNW Research 2008 (8 million forecast)

Members (000s)

200k+ 200k+ CurrentCurrent

MembersMembers

U.S. Car Sharing Growth ForecastU.S. Car Sharing Growth Forecast

8 mm 8 mm PotentialPotential

2007 ~2020

Currently at 70+ U.S. college campusesCurrently at 70+ U.S. college campuses

Car Sharing is GrowingCar Sharing is Growing

Our Full Featured EVOur Full Featured EV

Technology Enables New PossibilitiesTechnology Enables New PossibilitiesWireless Technology Promotes Wireless Technology Promotes

Modal DiversityModal Diversity

ConvergenceConvergence of:of:•• Wireless ComputingWireless Computing•• Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics•• TransportationTransportation•• Energy ManagementEnergy Management•• EcoEco--impact Metricsimpact Metrics

Recommend Recommend optimal modeoptimal mode to minimize price minimize price &

travel timetravel time

Eco Technology Conserves Eco Technology Conserves Energy, Reduces COEnergy, Reduces CO22

Locate

Charge Station

Locate Mass Transit

Zipcar Available? Smarter

Charging Stations

Vehicle to

Grid

Smart Grid

PEV ENABLERSPEV ENABLERSMonitorMonitor

Charge StatusCharge Status

Transition in Personal MobilityTransition in Personal Mobility

Mobility based on Personal Automobile

Mobility based on Multiple Modes

• Car Sharing

• Personal Rapid Transit

• Mass Rapid Transit

Transition will require:1. Real-time Communication from Vehicle

a) to customer (web portal, Smart Phone)b) to utilities

2. Shift to other modes of personal transportation

3. Partnerships

Now Future

Challenges: “What the Market will Bear”Challenges: “What the Market will Bear”

%

%

%

%

%

%Prius

PriusPHV

Mass Market

Source: PIN

2008 Midsize Car Prices

0 -- 2500

5000 -- 7500

10,000 -- 12,500

15,000 -- 17,500

20,000 -- 22,500

25,000 -- 27,500

30,000 -- 32,500

35,000 -- 37,500

40,000 -- 42,500

45,000 -- 47,500

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

Options for reducing PEVcost:

• Reduce battery cost per capacity• Reduce All Electric Range• Expand the Usable SOC

Current/Developing Cost => even 10 mile AER is Too expensive- 70% of total cost is from the battery cells - Cost must be reduced – not just cells, but the entire PEV system - Must consider the most balanced all electric range

Cost of PEV System

Cell Cost for 10 mile AER

Battery Package w/o Cells

Plug-in additional（Charger, Inlet, Cable）

Battery Energy on board

~50% useable energyin

actual operation

Challenges: Battery CostsChallenges: Battery Costs

Challenges: Key Infrastructure Issues RemainChallenges: Key Infrastructure Issues Remain

Vehicle to Grid Communications

Electric Utilities have excess electricity generation capacity during off-peak hours – typically at night

Even during off-peak times, however, there is insufficient electricity distribution capacity for many PEVs to charge at the same time

Communication between vehicle and “grid” is necessary to avoid negative impacts to distribution system (such as local outages)

Level 2 Charging Equipment

The majority of customers, particularly larger-capacity BEVs (50+ miles), will need/want L2 (220V) charging at home and business

The installation of L2 charging equipment is extremely challenging: high cost, lengthy time period, complex interactions among City, Utilities, Contractor, Customer, OEM and Dealer

Resolving L2 installation issues will be critical for EV market adoption

Last Mile Grid System not Developed

Old Transformers Cannot Accommodate Multiple EVs Charging in One Neighborhood

Night Time Charging Limits Charging Hours

Public Charging Not Assured

According to DOE Targets Fuel Cells Provide Most Efficient Packaging Over 100 Miles

According to DOE Targets Fuel Cells Provide Most Efficient Packaging Over 100 Miles

Source: DOE

DurabilityDurability

Cruising Cruising RangeRange

Compactness & Compactness & High Power High Power

DensityDensity

High & Low High & Low Temperature Temperature PerformancePerformance

CostCost

Challenges for FC VehiclesChallenges for FC VehiclesChallenges for FC Vehicles

Goal of Cost Reduction for FCHVGoal of Cost Reduction for FCHVGoal of Cost Reduction for FCHV

1/1001/1001/100

Cost reduction of 1/100 is required by innovative design, materiCost reduction of 1/100 is required by innovative design, materials als and production engineering.and production engineering.

Reducing costsReducing costsReducing costsBy innovative By innovative design, material, design, material, production production engineeringengineering

Model Model generationgeneration

By mass productionBy mass production

Cos

t

Model Model generationgeneration

Model Model generationgeneration

Model Model generationgeneration

Resolving technical issues Resolving Resolving technical issuestechnical issues

Hydrogen Station Roll out ScenarioHydrogen Station Roll out Scenario

Over Time The Costs of Most Technologies Merge

Over Time The Costs of Most Technologies Merge

Source: DOE

Electricity HydrogenGasoline, Diesel, Biofuel,

etc

Public transportPublic transportPrivate usePrivate use

ii--seriesseries

BicycleBicycleElectric welfare vehicle

Med/Large vehiclesMed/Large vehicles

ScooterScooter

Light vehicleLight vehicle

MicrobusMicrobus

City busCity bus

Delivery truckDelivery truck

Delivery Delivery vehicle vehicle

WingletWingletPMRPMR

HighHigh--Speed,Speed,LongLong--Distance DrivingDistance Driving

LowerLower--Speed,Speed,ShortShort--Distance DrivingDistance Driving

Highway drivingHighway drivingbetween citiesbetween cities

LowLow--Speed,Speed,InterInter--City DrivingCity Driving

MedMed--toto--High Speed,High Speed,MedMed--Distance DrivingDistance Driving

Large truckLarge truckVehicle SizeVehicle Size

FCV Sector FCV FCV

SectorSector

EV sector

EV EV sectorsector

Driving distance

ICE HV & PHV Sector ICE HV &

PHV Sector

EV commuterEV commuter

MobilityMobility--basedbased VehicleVehicle--basedbased

PHEVPHEV

HVHV

Roles of EV/PHEV/FCVRoles of EV/PHEV/FCV

Apply existing technologies in new waysApply existing technologies in new ways

Most of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet iMost of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet in the mobility n the mobility spacespace

For now smaller battery approaches are more cost effectiveFor now smaller battery approaches are more cost effective

Implies multiple charge periods throughout the dayImplies multiple charge periods throughout the day

Fuel Cells are rapidly maturingFuel Cells are rapidly maturing

Multiple solutions for rapidly changing circumstancesMultiple solutions for rapidly changing circumstances

PEVs and PEVs and FCsFCs

both face significant infrastructure hurdles both face significant infrastructure hurdles

At the end of the day, customer is kingAt the end of the day, customer is king

All solutions must solve customers problems without creating newAll solutions must solve customers problems without creating new

onesones

Charging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customCharging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customer er expectations.expectations.

SummarySummary