Bill Kuo DTC: Overview and AOP 2010. Outlines The DTC Management Structure The expected outcome of...

71
Bill Kuo DTC: Overview and AOP 2010

Transcript of Bill Kuo DTC: Overview and AOP 2010. Outlines The DTC Management Structure The expected outcome of...

Bill Kuo

DTC: Overview and AOP 2010

OutlinesThe DTC Management StructureThe expected outcome of the DTC Management

Board (MB) meetingDTC 2009 budget and major accomplishmentsDTC 2010 AOP process and budget allocationDTC Science Advisory BoardFeedback and interaction with DTC Executive

Committee

3

Fundamental Purpose of DTC

DTC

To serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community

– Research: functionally equivalent operational environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods over extended retrospective periods

– Operational: benefits from DTC T & E of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation

ResearchCommunity

OperationalCommunity

New Science and Technology

Operational Codes

DTCNCAR/RALNOAA/ESRL

8-Member WRF Executive Oversight Board (existing)

AFWA NCAR NCEP OAR ARL FAA NRL OON ARL

DTC Executive Committee

AFWA NCAR NWS OAR(EC provides agency oversight and policy guidance, and sets high-level

priorities.)

External CommunityScience Advisory Board

DTC

Director

Management Board(Director + Deputy Dirs. +

Agency Representatives)

DTC Management Structure*

*Blue indicates structure established by the DTC Charter

Management Structure Day-by-Day Operation by Bill Kuo (DTC Director), Louisa Nance (DTC Assistant Director), Steve

Koch (GSD Director), and Barb Brown (JNT Director)

Priorities set by funding agencies (DTC Executive Committee) with guidance from DTC

Management Board and Science Advisory Board

Executive Committee

Members from funding agencies

Appoints DTC director, executive oversight

Management Board Director, deputy directors, members from funding organizations

Annual operating plan and budget

Science Advisory Board

Members from operational and research communities

Strategic direction and objectives

5

DTC Executive CommitteeDTC is governed by the DTC Charter.DTC Charter was signed on 15th September 2009.According to the DTC Charter, Executive Committee

(EC) has the oversight authority over DTC.The DTC EC consists of:

NWS: Don Berchoff, Louis Uccellini*OAR: Sandy MacDonaldAFWA: Fred Lewis, John Murphy*NCAR: Roger Wakimoto,

DTC budget and annual operational plan need to be approved by the DTC EC.

*Light blue indicates non-voting members

DTC DEPUTY DIRECTOR(S) AND MANAGEMENT BOARD 

In addition to the DTC Director, each of the Parties may appoint a Deputy Director who will assist the DTC Director with internal management of the DTC. The DTC Director, Deputy Director(s) and an additional member appointed by each of the signatories, will constitute the DTC Management Board. The Management Board will assist the DTC Director in preparing the AOP, the annual budget, the selection of codes for testing and proposals for multi-year code testing and evaluation projects. Management issues unresolved by the Management Board can be elevated to the DTC EC for resolution.

 

The Management Board will meet regularly in person, by telecom or by e-mail to chart the direction of the WRF DTC, agree on operational priorities and assign tasks to staff in accordance with the policy of the DTC EC and subject to availability of funds. They also will recommend funding decisions to the Director on proposals received in response to announcements of opportunity for the DTC visitor program (see section 3.D). A quorum, defined as the Director plus at least one representative from each of the signatories, is required for the Management Board to conduct business.

DTC Management BoardDTC Management Board consists of:

Bill Kuo, DTC DirectorOAR: Steve Koch*, Marty RalphNWS: Bill Lapenta*, Fred ToepferNCAR: Barb Brown*, Joe KlempAFWA: Steve Rugg*, Jeff Cotela

Non-Voting Members for DTC MB:Bob Gall, former DTC DirectorLouisa Nance, Assistant DirectorNaomi Surgi, NCEP Liaison

* indicates Deputy Directors

DTC Director’s

Office

GSI HWRF WRF-NMM+ WPP

HWT HMT MET Ensemble testbed

NEMS

Visitor Program

DTC is managed in terms of tasks. Each task has a task lead, who is responsible for developing the work plan and ensuring the successful execution of the task. Most tasks are collaborative efforts between staff members of NCAR/JNT and ESRL/GSD. DTC Director’s Office will provide oversight for the various tasks.

DTC Director’s Office:

Bill Kuo Steve KochBarbara BrownLouisa NanceNaomi SurgiPam Johnson

DTC is managed by tasks

Expected outcome of the MB meetingReview and feedback on DTC AOP 2010 and

budget allocation:Are the proposed tasks for DTC appropriate and

consistent with agency expectation?Are the budget allocations adequate and consistent

with anticipated accomplishments?Suggestions for the revision of DTC CharterNomination for the DTC Science Advisory BoardPreliminary guidance on DTC AOP 2011Discuss DTC’s future directionsDecide on how DTC MB operate

DTC Annual Operating Plan - 09 WRF (NMM) + WPP community support (Jamie Wolff) Reference Configurations implementation (Jamie Wolff) WRF Rapid Refresh vertical level T&E (Jamie Wolff) MET support and development (Tressa Fowler) GSI community support (Hans Huang) HWRF community support (Ligia Bernardet) HMT-DTC: verification of precipitation forecast, ensemble prediction and

verification (Ed Tollerud) HWT-DTC: Evaluation of cloud-resolving model predictions (Tara

Jensen) NAM-GFS precipitation forecast comparison (Jamie Wolff) Mesoscale ensemble workshop (Bill Kuo) Publication of core test results (Louisa Nance, Ligia Bernardet) Visitor program (Louisa Nance) High-Resolution Hurricane Test (Ligia Bernardet, Louisa Nance)

11

Most tasks are collaborative efforts between GSD and NCAR staff, parenthesis shows the task lead or co-leads.

Highlights for FY 2009HWRF V3.2:

Bringing the NCEP operational HWRF into the general WRF repository

HRH testing for HFIPAssessing the impact of grid resolution on hurricane

predictionGSI Repository & code management plan

Making NCEP GSI available to the broad communityEnsemble workshop – Sep 2009

Produced a white-paper that will provide valuable guidance to DTC and the NWP community

Other major accomplishments will be presented by individual tasks

Proposed Activities for FY 2010Provide support on community systems:

WRFHWRFGSIMET

Conduct T&E activities on these community systems for research and operation.

Establish a DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET)Participate in the development and implementation of NOAA

Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) frameworkConduct community workshops/meetings to facilitate

collaboration between research and operationConduct a DTC visitor program

DTC FT 2010 Budget Allocations (in $K)

Task NOAA Core

HFIP* USWRP AFWA NCAR GSD NSF* Total

DTC Dir. Office 373 150 100 623

Visitor Prog. 100 22 100 222

WRF support 593 55 50 698

HWRF 735 400 7 127 1,269

GSI 176 396 50 622

MET 374 21 395

HMT-DTC 300 23 323

HWT-DTC 98 50 148

DET 651 651

NEMS 173 173

Total 2,900 400 300 825 300 300 100 5,125

* Indicate pending support (from HFIP and NSF)

Split of Funding between NCAR and GSD for the execution of DTC tasks

Task NCAR/JNT ESRL/GSD Total

DTC Dir. Office 506 117 623

Visitor Program 222 222

WRF support 600 98 698

HWRF 565 704 1,269

GSI 525 97 622

MET (Model Evaluation Tool) 395 395

HMT-DTC 200 123 323

HWT-DTC 148 148

DET (DTC Ensemble Testbed) 246 405 651

NEMS 173 173

Total 3,581 1,544 5,125

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010Having a HWRF V3.2 that can effectively serve research and

operation:Allow NCEP to configure its operational HWRF from the WRF

repository for FY11 implementationCommunity will be able to conduct research experiments using the

same HWRF V3.2 codeDevelop an effective and functioning GSI Boulder Community

Repository to serve research and operationDevelop a functioning DTC ensemble testbed – with inputs from

research and operational communitiesDeveloping expertise in NEMS and prepare DTC for NEMS

community supportConduct testing and evaluation of community systems (e.g., WRF,

HWRF, GSI, MET) to support research and community (e.g., HFIP, AFWA, EMC, … etc)

DTC Science Advisory BoardA DTC Science Advisory Board (AB) will assist the Director in shaping the strategic direction and objectives of DTC. Each appointment to the AB will be for a term of 3 years and will be subject to the concurrence of the EC. The AB provides advice to the Director on emerging NWP technologies, strategic computer resources issues, selection of code for testing and evaluation, selection of candidates for the visiting scientist program and acts as a sounding board to assist the Director.

The DTC AB will be nominated by the Management Board. Membership on the AB will be representative of the U.S. WRF modeling community. The EC will provide final approval of AB nominations. The AB will meet at least biannually to perform business, either in person, by phone, and/or electronically. The AB may elect one of its members as chairperson to facilitate its business.

DTC Science Advisory BoardA preliminary list of 34 names have been

provided by DTC MB.Need to finalize the selection of candidates:

What would be an appropriate number for the DTC AB?

Do we have proper spread and expertise to provide advice on DTC's current and future directions?

Do we have proper representation from various sectors?

How to ensure continuity (e.g., rotation of membership)?

Feedback and interaction with DTC ECThe DTC AOP and budget should be prepared

with the help and participation of DTC MB.The DTC AOP and budget should be submitted to

the DTC EC for approval with the endorsement of the DTC MB.

DTC MB members should communicate their support and recommendation to their respective agency members on the DTC EC.

Longer-Term Direction Modeling framework: WRF, NEMS, and ESMF

NCEP is migrating all its systems to NEMSThe WRF system remains on its frameworkHow to effectively share modeling system components?

Global modeling:Several new global models are being developed with unstructured grid

that show great promisesThese models are expected to run at cloud-/mesoscale resolutions

Data assimilation:The community is moving toward advanced systems: 4D-Var, EnKF,

and hybrid Ensemble prediction:

There is a strong demand from the society for probabilistic forecasts from cloud to global scales

A DTC Strategic Plan?

Guiding Principles for DTC Management:

Open

Transparent

Accountable

Louisa Nance

DTC Director’s Office

Director’s Office Responsibilities

Manage and coordinate DTC tasksConduct or assist with workshops and tutorialsInteract with DTC partners on collaborative

effortsCreate and maintain the DTC WebsiteProvide administrative support for DTC

management meetingsHost the DTC Visitor Program

Good communication is key to the success of the DTC!

DTC OrganizationDTC Director’s

Office

WRFWRF for

Hurricanes

GSI MET HMT HWT DET NEMS

DTC Visitor Program

Task Leads:Develop work planEnsure successful execution of task

Director’s Office: Coordinate resource allocationsResolve staffing issuesOverall planning and reporting

DTC Staff

Tools

Relationship between DTC Tasks

WRFWRF for Hurrica

nes

GSI

METHMT-DTC

HWT-DTC

DET

Identify commonalities - broader coordination and longer term planning

Interactions with DTC PartnersCommunity Codes are a collaborative effort with

developersWRF – MMM, EMC, GSDWRF for Hurricanes – EMC,MMMGSI – EMC, GSD, MMM

Contributions from developers critical to success!

Maintaining strong ties to Operational CentersEMCAFWA

To truly serve as a bridge, DTC activities need to address needs of operational centers

Implementing DTC Management PlanExternal Management Groups

Executive CommitteeManagement BoardScience Advisory Board

Regular conference calls and in-person meetings will be critical to the success of this planInform external groups about DTC

accomplishments and proposed plansProvide recommendations on priorities and future

direction of the DTC

Interaction with Broader CommunityWorkshops

WRF Users WorkshopDTC Verification WorkshopNational Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic PredictionEMC/MMM/DTC Joint Hurricane Science WorkshopTechnical Workshop on Mesoscale Probability Prediction

TutorialsWRFMETWRF for HurricanesGSI

Strengthen the DTC connection with the broader community!

DTC Website

Results from T&E activities

Info on available

community codes

Info on Visitor

Program

Info on verification activities

Meetings &Workshop

Coming Soon!

DTC Visitor ProgramPast Format SuccessesAnnual Announcement of

OpportunityAreas of emphasis

provided by reps from WRF principle partners

Proposals reviewed by panel w/ reps from WRF principle partners

1 month salary + travel and per diem to visit DTC or operational center

~1 year to complete project

WRF version 3.1QNSE PBL schemeImproved Mellor-Yamada Level

3 Turbulence Closure PBL scheme

WRF version 3.2Subfilter closure models for

LES*MET version 1.1

Neighborhood methodsMET version 2.0

Intensity scale wavelet method

DTC Visitor ProgramFuture Format (proposal)Annual Announcement of OpportunityManagement Board provides recommendation on overall

direction and areas of emphasisSelection committee composed of representatives from

Science Advisory Board and Management Board reviews proposals

Double the funding allocation set aside for visitor projectsOffer two types of opportunities

Provide 2-months salary + travel and per diem for the PI to visit DTC or operational center to work on a project relevant to DTC mission

Provide funding for an extended visit by a graduate student to work with DTC on project relevant to our mission

Resource RequirementsStaff Category FTE Cost

Managers 1.70 $470.2 K

Administrative Assistant 0.50 $51.8 K

Visitor Computing Support 0.10 $21.7 K

Other expenses Cost

Travel $ 30 KExternal Committee Meetings

(EC, MB, and DAB)$36 K

Materials & Supplies $10 K

Computers $25 K

Visitor Projects $200 K 100% increase

Jamie Wolff

WRF Community Support & Test and Evaluation

WRF Community Support GoalsMaintain community-released code repositories

WRF* *WRF Post Processor (WPP)*

Facilitate community contributions to the respective code repositories

Provide direct assistance through wrfhelp for the WRF-NMM and WPP code*

Support community outreach events * *

-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009WRF version 3.1 released in April 2009 * *

Bug fix release (v3.1.1) in July 2009 * *Wrfhelp support for WRF-NMM and WPP*

~45 emails per monthWRF Tutorials * *

26 January – 5 February 200913-24 July 2009

WRF Users Workshop*23-26 June 2009

-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Proposed Activities for FY 2010Enhance WRF Regression testing *

Update the weekly regression test to include additional NMM configurations

Establish additional testing to be performed every 2-3 monthsExercise longer forecasts, restarts, data assimilation

Initiate transition from WPP to Unified Post Processor (UPP)*Establish a community code repository for UPP, along with a

code management planContinue on-going efforts in community support

-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010Release WRF version 3.2 in April 2010Establish a UPP code repository and

management plan Offer bi-annual WRF Tutorials in January and

July 2010Co-host WRF Users Workshop in June 2010

WRF Test and Evaluation GoalsWidely publicize verification results from a variety

of extensively tested and evaluated configurations

Provide operational community with guidance for selecting new NWP techniques with potential added value

Provide research community with baselines against which new techniques can be evaluated

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009Finalized the Reference Configuration (RC) concept

DTC RCsCommunity Contributed Reference Configurations

(CCRCs)Increased community awareness

of the RC conceptPresented at the WRF Users

Workshop and the NWP/WAF

ConferenceEstablished RC webpage for

distributing information to the

community

Reference Configurations WRF Repository

In the WRF framework Meets WRF coding standards Minimal testing Code & documentation is maintained

by the author Reference Configurations

Selected from the WRF Repository Particular collection of config files set at

compile- and run-time Extensively tested Design document & statistical results

distributed by the DTC Possible elevation to Operational

Configuration Operational Configurations

Robust, fully tested current operational NWP system

Maintained by the operational centers

WRF Repository

RCa

RCb

RCe

RCd

RCc

Operational Configs

Proposed Activities for FY 2010Establish DTC RCs

Version Core Physics SuiteWRFv2.2+ NMM NCEPWRFv2.2+ ARW NCEPWRFv3.0 ARW Rapid RefreshWRFv3.1.1+ ARW AFWA OpWRFv3.1.1+ ARW QNSE PBL/sfc layer

Retest select RCs with WRF v3.2 as resources permitNAM/GFS Precipitation Forecast Comparison

Utilize advanced verification techniques (MODE, FSS) to better assess impact of finer grid spacing

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010Implement the RC concept for a number of

configurationsDistribute final reports to funding agencies from

all testing and evaluation activities conducted in FY2010

Publish methodology and results for select test activities

Resource Requirements

Staff Category FTE Cost

Scientists 0.72 $132.1 K

Software Engineers 0.91 $181.7 K

Students 0.07 $3.5 K

Staff Category FTE Cost

Scientists 1.58 $288.7 K

Software Engineers 0.38 $65.5 K

Students 0.45 $22.2 K

WRF Community Support

WRF Test and Evaluation

Other:Travel: $3 KPublications: $1.5 K

Ligia Bernardet

WRF for Hurricanes

WRF for Hurricanes GoalsFacilitate transfer of research to operations by

creating a framework for NCEP and the research community to collaborate

Support the community in using HWRFDevelop and maintain a hurricane testing and

evaluation infrastructure at DTCPerform HWRF tests to assure integrity of code

and evaluate new developments for potential operational implementation

WRF V3.2

WRF V3.1.1

WRF V3.1

WRF V3.0

WRF V2.2

WRF V2.1

WRF V205/2004

07/2009

03/2010

08/2005

12/2006

04/2008

04/2009

HWRF code management: a new mechanism to facilitate collaboration between research and operations

HWRF configuration for operations (2011)

Extensive Testing

WRF Repository

oper HWRF2007

oper HWRF2008

oper HWRF2009

oper HWRF2010

WRF V3.2+

Feb 2011?

upgrades

2011

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009HWRF code management plan (DTC and EMC

collaboration) establishedOperational HWRF capabilities added to the trunk of the

general WRF repository, making HWRF a compile-time and run-time configuration of WRF

Four completely new codes transitioned to DTC (new expertise, porting, automation etc.)Princeton Ocean ModelVortex InitializationCouplerVortex Tracker

WRF for Hurricanes user support and Feb 2010 tutorial plan established jointly with EMC and NCAR MMM

Proposed Activities for FY 2010Conduct WRF for Hurricanes TutorialRelease HWRF to the community and provide user

supportInsure the HWRF configuration in repository matches

forecast skill of the 2008/2009 operational modelIncorporate NCEP 2010 HWRF upgrades in

repositoriesAutomate HWRF runs at DTCConduct tests to evaluate new developments and

support pre-implementation activities at NCEP and HFIP

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010A community HWRF system with user supportCommunity HWRF code matching skill of

operational HWRF used in 2009 seasonEnhanced HWRF capability through contributions

from HFIP and community

DTC Testing ProtocolCode to be tested must be in the WRF repositoryPreferably test official release codeBefore testing for EMC or HFIP is conducted, good

code management practices need to be observedThis forces a hierarchy in the process, for example…

First must have HWRF 3rd nest in the repository and then…

Perform tests of high-resolution configurationsTherefore… resources will be used to construct a

foundation for T&E, before testing of more sophisticated configurations can be conducted

HWRF-V2 and V3: Ike 2008090200

V2 and V3 make “similar” forecast

Full assessment of V3 skill still needed

HWRF-V2 and V3: Gustav 2008082600

Remaining issue on V3 intensity

Resource Requirements

Staff Category FTE Cost

Scientists 1.57 $ 345.8 K

Software Engineers 1.13 $ 218.4 K

Staff Category FTE Cost

Scientists 2.3 $ 458.8 K

Software Engineers 1.36 $ 238.9 K

Community Code

Testing and Evaluation

Other: Travel $6 K and Publications $1.5 K

Hans Huang

Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Data

Assimilation System

GoalsProvide current operational GSI capabilities to

the research community (O2R)

Provide a framework for distributed development of new capabilities & advances in data assimilation

Provide a pathway for data assimilation research to operations process (R2O)

Provide rational basis to operational centers and research community for enhancement of data assimilation systems

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009

Collaboration and coordination with EMC, AFWA, GSD and NCAR

Boulder GSI Community RepositoryBoulder community release, documentation and

support T&EAn end-to-end WPS, WRF-ARW, GSI and MET suiteExtended runs to evaluate data impacts and running

schemes

EMC GSIRepositoryEMC GSI

Repository

Boulder Community

GSI Repository

Boulder Community

GSI Repository releaserelease

GSDGSD

MMMMMM

Community

Community

EMCEMC DTCDTC Code Management

Plan

GMAOGMAO

Others?Others?

Boulder Community GSI Code Management

Developers(community)

57

Developers

Code Release v1.0

Release BranchRelease is done on this tag

Code release 2.0

Release Branch

Boulder GSI Code Repository

July

SepAug Dec Jan Feb Mar

Commits from EMC EMC Q1FY10 operational implementation (global)

Apr

EMC Trunk

branch branch

Commits from Boulder developers

2010

Beta Release v2.0

GSI v1.0 was released on September 25, 2009:

• GSI code (based on NOAA/NCEP Q1FY09)

• Compilation/configuration tool

• GSI required libraries

• Updated GSI User’s Guide

Tested on IBM Supercomputer, Linux workstation, Linux Clusters

Community Release

Experiments GFSWRF: ARW runs. Started from GFS analysis every 6 hours

CYC_CONV: GSI and ARW runs in a full cycling mode. Prepbufr data were assimilated.

CYC_CONV+RAD: Same as CYC_CONV except AMSU-A radiance data were assimilated.

CYC_CONV+RAD+GPS: Same as CYC_CONV+RAD except GPS RO refractivity were assimilated.

LCYC_CON+RAD+GPS: Same as CYC_CONV+RAD+GPS except the runs were in a limited cycling mode.

Verification using MET v2.0

Community GSI Data Assimilation SystemFY2009 T&E

Proposed Activities for FY 2010

Collaborations and coordinationDTC Maryland staffEMC visitors to BoulderMonthly GSI community developer meetings

Boulder Community Repository Update, port and enhanceSync with EMC GSI repositoryRegression testsDevelop community tools

Community supportForm a community GSI advisory committeeGSI community code release v2.0: April 2010GSI community tutorial: 28-30 June 2010Update GSI User’s Guide v2.0GSI-help, GSI webpage, online documentation and online tutorial

T&EAFWA GSI Testbed

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010

GSI Community code release v2.0: April 2010GSI Tutorial: 28 – 30 June 2010, Boulder, COUpdated GSI User’s Guide v2.0Community GSI advisory committee T&E activity report

Resource Requirements

Staff Category FTE Cost

Scientists 3.2 $514.6K

Software Engineers 0.5 $88.9K

Other(e.g., Travel) $18K

Total 3.7 $621.5K

Tressa L. Fowler

Model Evaluation Tools

What is MET?

A community software package.

Basic tools for verification.

Advanced tools for verification.

Up to date.Supported.

MET Goals

Maintain and improve a consistent, complete, current set of verification tools for NWP community.

Support these tools through email help and tutorials.

Investigate new methods to incorporate into MET.

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009Release of MET 2.0, with wavelet and probability methods.

DTC verification workshop on cloud and ensemble verification.

Implementation and completion of first two full length MET tutorials.

Wavelet decomposition difference

Proposed Activities for FY 2010

Development of methods for evaluating forecasts through time.

Enhancement of ensemble and cloud verification methods.

Test prototype METViewer with HWT.

Wind Speed Object Dec 13-14, 2008

Time in vertical

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010Release of MET 3.0, with cloud and ensemble

verification capability.

DTC verification workshopEvaluating forecasts through timeCloud verification methods

Prototype release of database and display system, METViewer.

Resource RequirementsStaff

Category FTE Cost

Support Scientists 0.30 $51 K

Support Software Engineers

0.60 $101.4 K

Development Scientists 0.25 $42.7 K

Development Software Engineers

0.98 $171.6 K

Travel $3 K

Workshop $25 K