Bill Kuo DTC: Overview and AOP 2010. Outlines The DTC Management Structure The expected outcome of...
Transcript of Bill Kuo DTC: Overview and AOP 2010. Outlines The DTC Management Structure The expected outcome of...
OutlinesThe DTC Management StructureThe expected outcome of the DTC Management
Board (MB) meetingDTC 2009 budget and major accomplishmentsDTC 2010 AOP process and budget allocationDTC Science Advisory BoardFeedback and interaction with DTC Executive
Committee
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Fundamental Purpose of DTC
DTC
To serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community
– Research: functionally equivalent operational environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods over extended retrospective periods
– Operational: benefits from DTC T & E of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation
ResearchCommunity
OperationalCommunity
New Science and Technology
Operational Codes
DTCNCAR/RALNOAA/ESRL
8-Member WRF Executive Oversight Board (existing)
AFWA NCAR NCEP OAR ARL FAA NRL OON ARL
DTC Executive Committee
AFWA NCAR NWS OAR(EC provides agency oversight and policy guidance, and sets high-level
priorities.)
External CommunityScience Advisory Board
DTC
Director
Management Board(Director + Deputy Dirs. +
Agency Representatives)
DTC Management Structure*
*Blue indicates structure established by the DTC Charter
Management Structure Day-by-Day Operation by Bill Kuo (DTC Director), Louisa Nance (DTC Assistant Director), Steve
Koch (GSD Director), and Barb Brown (JNT Director)
Priorities set by funding agencies (DTC Executive Committee) with guidance from DTC
Management Board and Science Advisory Board
Executive Committee
Members from funding agencies
Appoints DTC director, executive oversight
Management Board Director, deputy directors, members from funding organizations
Annual operating plan and budget
Science Advisory Board
Members from operational and research communities
Strategic direction and objectives
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DTC Executive CommitteeDTC is governed by the DTC Charter.DTC Charter was signed on 15th September 2009.According to the DTC Charter, Executive Committee
(EC) has the oversight authority over DTC.The DTC EC consists of:
NWS: Don Berchoff, Louis Uccellini*OAR: Sandy MacDonaldAFWA: Fred Lewis, John Murphy*NCAR: Roger Wakimoto,
DTC budget and annual operational plan need to be approved by the DTC EC.
*Light blue indicates non-voting members
DTC DEPUTY DIRECTOR(S) AND MANAGEMENT BOARD
In addition to the DTC Director, each of the Parties may appoint a Deputy Director who will assist the DTC Director with internal management of the DTC. The DTC Director, Deputy Director(s) and an additional member appointed by each of the signatories, will constitute the DTC Management Board. The Management Board will assist the DTC Director in preparing the AOP, the annual budget, the selection of codes for testing and proposals for multi-year code testing and evaluation projects. Management issues unresolved by the Management Board can be elevated to the DTC EC for resolution.
The Management Board will meet regularly in person, by telecom or by e-mail to chart the direction of the WRF DTC, agree on operational priorities and assign tasks to staff in accordance with the policy of the DTC EC and subject to availability of funds. They also will recommend funding decisions to the Director on proposals received in response to announcements of opportunity for the DTC visitor program (see section 3.D). A quorum, defined as the Director plus at least one representative from each of the signatories, is required for the Management Board to conduct business.
DTC Management BoardDTC Management Board consists of:
Bill Kuo, DTC DirectorOAR: Steve Koch*, Marty RalphNWS: Bill Lapenta*, Fred ToepferNCAR: Barb Brown*, Joe KlempAFWA: Steve Rugg*, Jeff Cotela
Non-Voting Members for DTC MB:Bob Gall, former DTC DirectorLouisa Nance, Assistant DirectorNaomi Surgi, NCEP Liaison
* indicates Deputy Directors
DTC Director’s
Office
GSI HWRF WRF-NMM+ WPP
HWT HMT MET Ensemble testbed
NEMS
Visitor Program
DTC is managed in terms of tasks. Each task has a task lead, who is responsible for developing the work plan and ensuring the successful execution of the task. Most tasks are collaborative efforts between staff members of NCAR/JNT and ESRL/GSD. DTC Director’s Office will provide oversight for the various tasks.
DTC Director’s Office:
Bill Kuo Steve KochBarbara BrownLouisa NanceNaomi SurgiPam Johnson
DTC is managed by tasks
Expected outcome of the MB meetingReview and feedback on DTC AOP 2010 and
budget allocation:Are the proposed tasks for DTC appropriate and
consistent with agency expectation?Are the budget allocations adequate and consistent
with anticipated accomplishments?Suggestions for the revision of DTC CharterNomination for the DTC Science Advisory BoardPreliminary guidance on DTC AOP 2011Discuss DTC’s future directionsDecide on how DTC MB operate
DTC Annual Operating Plan - 09 WRF (NMM) + WPP community support (Jamie Wolff) Reference Configurations implementation (Jamie Wolff) WRF Rapid Refresh vertical level T&E (Jamie Wolff) MET support and development (Tressa Fowler) GSI community support (Hans Huang) HWRF community support (Ligia Bernardet) HMT-DTC: verification of precipitation forecast, ensemble prediction and
verification (Ed Tollerud) HWT-DTC: Evaluation of cloud-resolving model predictions (Tara
Jensen) NAM-GFS precipitation forecast comparison (Jamie Wolff) Mesoscale ensemble workshop (Bill Kuo) Publication of core test results (Louisa Nance, Ligia Bernardet) Visitor program (Louisa Nance) High-Resolution Hurricane Test (Ligia Bernardet, Louisa Nance)
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Most tasks are collaborative efforts between GSD and NCAR staff, parenthesis shows the task lead or co-leads.
Highlights for FY 2009HWRF V3.2:
Bringing the NCEP operational HWRF into the general WRF repository
HRH testing for HFIPAssessing the impact of grid resolution on hurricane
predictionGSI Repository & code management plan
Making NCEP GSI available to the broad communityEnsemble workshop – Sep 2009
Produced a white-paper that will provide valuable guidance to DTC and the NWP community
Other major accomplishments will be presented by individual tasks
Proposed Activities for FY 2010Provide support on community systems:
WRFHWRFGSIMET
Conduct T&E activities on these community systems for research and operation.
Establish a DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET)Participate in the development and implementation of NOAA
Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) frameworkConduct community workshops/meetings to facilitate
collaboration between research and operationConduct a DTC visitor program
DTC FT 2010 Budget Allocations (in $K)
Task NOAA Core
HFIP* USWRP AFWA NCAR GSD NSF* Total
DTC Dir. Office 373 150 100 623
Visitor Prog. 100 22 100 222
WRF support 593 55 50 698
HWRF 735 400 7 127 1,269
GSI 176 396 50 622
MET 374 21 395
HMT-DTC 300 23 323
HWT-DTC 98 50 148
DET 651 651
NEMS 173 173
Total 2,900 400 300 825 300 300 100 5,125
* Indicate pending support (from HFIP and NSF)
Split of Funding between NCAR and GSD for the execution of DTC tasks
Task NCAR/JNT ESRL/GSD Total
DTC Dir. Office 506 117 623
Visitor Program 222 222
WRF support 600 98 698
HWRF 565 704 1,269
GSI 525 97 622
MET (Model Evaluation Tool) 395 395
HMT-DTC 200 123 323
HWT-DTC 148 148
DET (DTC Ensemble Testbed) 246 405 651
NEMS 173 173
Total 3,581 1,544 5,125
Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010Having a HWRF V3.2 that can effectively serve research and
operation:Allow NCEP to configure its operational HWRF from the WRF
repository for FY11 implementationCommunity will be able to conduct research experiments using the
same HWRF V3.2 codeDevelop an effective and functioning GSI Boulder Community
Repository to serve research and operationDevelop a functioning DTC ensemble testbed – with inputs from
research and operational communitiesDeveloping expertise in NEMS and prepare DTC for NEMS
community supportConduct testing and evaluation of community systems (e.g., WRF,
HWRF, GSI, MET) to support research and community (e.g., HFIP, AFWA, EMC, … etc)
DTC Science Advisory BoardA DTC Science Advisory Board (AB) will assist the Director in shaping the strategic direction and objectives of DTC. Each appointment to the AB will be for a term of 3 years and will be subject to the concurrence of the EC. The AB provides advice to the Director on emerging NWP technologies, strategic computer resources issues, selection of code for testing and evaluation, selection of candidates for the visiting scientist program and acts as a sounding board to assist the Director.
The DTC AB will be nominated by the Management Board. Membership on the AB will be representative of the U.S. WRF modeling community. The EC will provide final approval of AB nominations. The AB will meet at least biannually to perform business, either in person, by phone, and/or electronically. The AB may elect one of its members as chairperson to facilitate its business.
DTC Science Advisory BoardA preliminary list of 34 names have been
provided by DTC MB.Need to finalize the selection of candidates:
What would be an appropriate number for the DTC AB?
Do we have proper spread and expertise to provide advice on DTC's current and future directions?
Do we have proper representation from various sectors?
How to ensure continuity (e.g., rotation of membership)?
Feedback and interaction with DTC ECThe DTC AOP and budget should be prepared
with the help and participation of DTC MB.The DTC AOP and budget should be submitted to
the DTC EC for approval with the endorsement of the DTC MB.
DTC MB members should communicate their support and recommendation to their respective agency members on the DTC EC.
Longer-Term Direction Modeling framework: WRF, NEMS, and ESMF
NCEP is migrating all its systems to NEMSThe WRF system remains on its frameworkHow to effectively share modeling system components?
Global modeling:Several new global models are being developed with unstructured grid
that show great promisesThese models are expected to run at cloud-/mesoscale resolutions
Data assimilation:The community is moving toward advanced systems: 4D-Var, EnKF,
and hybrid Ensemble prediction:
There is a strong demand from the society for probabilistic forecasts from cloud to global scales
A DTC Strategic Plan?
Director’s Office Responsibilities
Manage and coordinate DTC tasksConduct or assist with workshops and tutorialsInteract with DTC partners on collaborative
effortsCreate and maintain the DTC WebsiteProvide administrative support for DTC
management meetingsHost the DTC Visitor Program
Good communication is key to the success of the DTC!
DTC OrganizationDTC Director’s
Office
WRFWRF for
Hurricanes
GSI MET HMT HWT DET NEMS
DTC Visitor Program
Task Leads:Develop work planEnsure successful execution of task
Director’s Office: Coordinate resource allocationsResolve staffing issuesOverall planning and reporting
DTC Staff
Tools
Relationship between DTC Tasks
WRFWRF for Hurrica
nes
GSI
METHMT-DTC
HWT-DTC
DET
Identify commonalities - broader coordination and longer term planning
Interactions with DTC PartnersCommunity Codes are a collaborative effort with
developersWRF – MMM, EMC, GSDWRF for Hurricanes – EMC,MMMGSI – EMC, GSD, MMM
Contributions from developers critical to success!
Maintaining strong ties to Operational CentersEMCAFWA
To truly serve as a bridge, DTC activities need to address needs of operational centers
Implementing DTC Management PlanExternal Management Groups
Executive CommitteeManagement BoardScience Advisory Board
Regular conference calls and in-person meetings will be critical to the success of this planInform external groups about DTC
accomplishments and proposed plansProvide recommendations on priorities and future
direction of the DTC
Interaction with Broader CommunityWorkshops
WRF Users WorkshopDTC Verification WorkshopNational Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic PredictionEMC/MMM/DTC Joint Hurricane Science WorkshopTechnical Workshop on Mesoscale Probability Prediction
TutorialsWRFMETWRF for HurricanesGSI
Strengthen the DTC connection with the broader community!
DTC Website
Results from T&E activities
Info on available
community codes
Info on Visitor
Program
Info on verification activities
Meetings &Workshop
Coming Soon!
DTC Visitor ProgramPast Format SuccessesAnnual Announcement of
OpportunityAreas of emphasis
provided by reps from WRF principle partners
Proposals reviewed by panel w/ reps from WRF principle partners
1 month salary + travel and per diem to visit DTC or operational center
~1 year to complete project
WRF version 3.1QNSE PBL schemeImproved Mellor-Yamada Level
3 Turbulence Closure PBL scheme
WRF version 3.2Subfilter closure models for
LES*MET version 1.1
Neighborhood methodsMET version 2.0
Intensity scale wavelet method
DTC Visitor ProgramFuture Format (proposal)Annual Announcement of OpportunityManagement Board provides recommendation on overall
direction and areas of emphasisSelection committee composed of representatives from
Science Advisory Board and Management Board reviews proposals
Double the funding allocation set aside for visitor projectsOffer two types of opportunities
Provide 2-months salary + travel and per diem for the PI to visit DTC or operational center to work on a project relevant to DTC mission
Provide funding for an extended visit by a graduate student to work with DTC on project relevant to our mission
Resource RequirementsStaff Category FTE Cost
Managers 1.70 $470.2 K
Administrative Assistant 0.50 $51.8 K
Visitor Computing Support 0.10 $21.7 K
Other expenses Cost
Travel $ 30 KExternal Committee Meetings
(EC, MB, and DAB)$36 K
Materials & Supplies $10 K
Computers $25 K
Visitor Projects $200 K 100% increase
WRF Community Support GoalsMaintain community-released code repositories
WRF* *WRF Post Processor (WPP)*
Facilitate community contributions to the respective code repositories
Provide direct assistance through wrfhelp for the WRF-NMM and WPP code*
Support community outreach events * *
-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*
Major Accomplishments for FY 2009WRF version 3.1 released in April 2009 * *
Bug fix release (v3.1.1) in July 2009 * *Wrfhelp support for WRF-NMM and WPP*
~45 emails per monthWRF Tutorials * *
26 January – 5 February 200913-24 July 2009
WRF Users Workshop*23-26 June 2009
-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*
Proposed Activities for FY 2010Enhance WRF Regression testing *
Update the weekly regression test to include additional NMM configurations
Establish additional testing to be performed every 2-3 monthsExercise longer forecasts, restarts, data assimilation
Initiate transition from WPP to Unified Post Processor (UPP)*Establish a community code repository for UPP, along with a
code management planContinue on-going efforts in community support
-in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*
Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010Release WRF version 3.2 in April 2010Establish a UPP code repository and
management plan Offer bi-annual WRF Tutorials in January and
July 2010Co-host WRF Users Workshop in June 2010
WRF Test and Evaluation GoalsWidely publicize verification results from a variety
of extensively tested and evaluated configurations
Provide operational community with guidance for selecting new NWP techniques with potential added value
Provide research community with baselines against which new techniques can be evaluated
Major Accomplishments for FY 2009Finalized the Reference Configuration (RC) concept
DTC RCsCommunity Contributed Reference Configurations
(CCRCs)Increased community awareness
of the RC conceptPresented at the WRF Users
Workshop and the NWP/WAF
ConferenceEstablished RC webpage for
distributing information to the
community
Reference Configurations WRF Repository
In the WRF framework Meets WRF coding standards Minimal testing Code & documentation is maintained
by the author Reference Configurations
Selected from the WRF Repository Particular collection of config files set at
compile- and run-time Extensively tested Design document & statistical results
distributed by the DTC Possible elevation to Operational
Configuration Operational Configurations
Robust, fully tested current operational NWP system
Maintained by the operational centers
WRF Repository
RCa
RCb
RCe
RCd
RCc
Operational Configs
Proposed Activities for FY 2010Establish DTC RCs
Version Core Physics SuiteWRFv2.2+ NMM NCEPWRFv2.2+ ARW NCEPWRFv3.0 ARW Rapid RefreshWRFv3.1.1+ ARW AFWA OpWRFv3.1.1+ ARW QNSE PBL/sfc layer
Retest select RCs with WRF v3.2 as resources permitNAM/GFS Precipitation Forecast Comparison
Utilize advanced verification techniques (MODE, FSS) to better assess impact of finer grid spacing
Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010Implement the RC concept for a number of
configurationsDistribute final reports to funding agencies from
all testing and evaluation activities conducted in FY2010
Publish methodology and results for select test activities
Resource Requirements
Staff Category FTE Cost
Scientists 0.72 $132.1 K
Software Engineers 0.91 $181.7 K
Students 0.07 $3.5 K
Staff Category FTE Cost
Scientists 1.58 $288.7 K
Software Engineers 0.38 $65.5 K
Students 0.45 $22.2 K
WRF Community Support
WRF Test and Evaluation
Other:Travel: $3 KPublications: $1.5 K
WRF for Hurricanes GoalsFacilitate transfer of research to operations by
creating a framework for NCEP and the research community to collaborate
Support the community in using HWRFDevelop and maintain a hurricane testing and
evaluation infrastructure at DTCPerform HWRF tests to assure integrity of code
and evaluate new developments for potential operational implementation
WRF V3.2
WRF V3.1.1
WRF V3.1
WRF V3.0
WRF V2.2
WRF V2.1
WRF V205/2004
07/2009
03/2010
08/2005
12/2006
04/2008
04/2009
HWRF code management: a new mechanism to facilitate collaboration between research and operations
HWRF configuration for operations (2011)
Extensive Testing
WRF Repository
oper HWRF2007
oper HWRF2008
oper HWRF2009
oper HWRF2010
WRF V3.2+
Feb 2011?
upgrades
2011
Major Accomplishments for FY 2009HWRF code management plan (DTC and EMC
collaboration) establishedOperational HWRF capabilities added to the trunk of the
general WRF repository, making HWRF a compile-time and run-time configuration of WRF
Four completely new codes transitioned to DTC (new expertise, porting, automation etc.)Princeton Ocean ModelVortex InitializationCouplerVortex Tracker
WRF for Hurricanes user support and Feb 2010 tutorial plan established jointly with EMC and NCAR MMM
Proposed Activities for FY 2010Conduct WRF for Hurricanes TutorialRelease HWRF to the community and provide user
supportInsure the HWRF configuration in repository matches
forecast skill of the 2008/2009 operational modelIncorporate NCEP 2010 HWRF upgrades in
repositoriesAutomate HWRF runs at DTCConduct tests to evaluate new developments and
support pre-implementation activities at NCEP and HFIP
Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010A community HWRF system with user supportCommunity HWRF code matching skill of
operational HWRF used in 2009 seasonEnhanced HWRF capability through contributions
from HFIP and community
DTC Testing ProtocolCode to be tested must be in the WRF repositoryPreferably test official release codeBefore testing for EMC or HFIP is conducted, good
code management practices need to be observedThis forces a hierarchy in the process, for example…
First must have HWRF 3rd nest in the repository and then…
Perform tests of high-resolution configurationsTherefore… resources will be used to construct a
foundation for T&E, before testing of more sophisticated configurations can be conducted
HWRF-V2 and V3: Ike 2008090200
V2 and V3 make “similar” forecast
Full assessment of V3 skill still needed
Resource Requirements
Staff Category FTE Cost
Scientists 1.57 $ 345.8 K
Software Engineers 1.13 $ 218.4 K
Staff Category FTE Cost
Scientists 2.3 $ 458.8 K
Software Engineers 1.36 $ 238.9 K
Community Code
Testing and Evaluation
Other: Travel $6 K and Publications $1.5 K
GoalsProvide current operational GSI capabilities to
the research community (O2R)
Provide a framework for distributed development of new capabilities & advances in data assimilation
Provide a pathway for data assimilation research to operations process (R2O)
Provide rational basis to operational centers and research community for enhancement of data assimilation systems
Major Accomplishments for FY 2009
Collaboration and coordination with EMC, AFWA, GSD and NCAR
Boulder GSI Community RepositoryBoulder community release, documentation and
support T&EAn end-to-end WPS, WRF-ARW, GSI and MET suiteExtended runs to evaluate data impacts and running
schemes
EMC GSIRepositoryEMC GSI
Repository
Boulder Community
GSI Repository
Boulder Community
GSI Repository releaserelease
GSDGSD
MMMMMM
Community
Community
EMCEMC DTCDTC Code Management
Plan
GMAOGMAO
Others?Others?
Boulder Community GSI Code Management
Developers(community)
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Developers
Code Release v1.0
Release BranchRelease is done on this tag
Code release 2.0
Release Branch
Boulder GSI Code Repository
July
SepAug Dec Jan Feb Mar
Commits from EMC EMC Q1FY10 operational implementation (global)
Apr
EMC Trunk
branch branch
Commits from Boulder developers
2010
Beta Release v2.0
GSI v1.0 was released on September 25, 2009:
• GSI code (based on NOAA/NCEP Q1FY09)
• Compilation/configuration tool
• GSI required libraries
• Updated GSI User’s Guide
Tested on IBM Supercomputer, Linux workstation, Linux Clusters
Community Release
Experiments GFSWRF: ARW runs. Started from GFS analysis every 6 hours
CYC_CONV: GSI and ARW runs in a full cycling mode. Prepbufr data were assimilated.
CYC_CONV+RAD: Same as CYC_CONV except AMSU-A radiance data were assimilated.
CYC_CONV+RAD+GPS: Same as CYC_CONV+RAD except GPS RO refractivity were assimilated.
LCYC_CON+RAD+GPS: Same as CYC_CONV+RAD+GPS except the runs were in a limited cycling mode.
Verification using MET v2.0
Community GSI Data Assimilation SystemFY2009 T&E
Proposed Activities for FY 2010
Collaborations and coordinationDTC Maryland staffEMC visitors to BoulderMonthly GSI community developer meetings
Boulder Community Repository Update, port and enhanceSync with EMC GSI repositoryRegression testsDevelop community tools
Community supportForm a community GSI advisory committeeGSI community code release v2.0: April 2010GSI community tutorial: 28-30 June 2010Update GSI User’s Guide v2.0GSI-help, GSI webpage, online documentation and online tutorial
T&EAFWA GSI Testbed
Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010
GSI Community code release v2.0: April 2010GSI Tutorial: 28 – 30 June 2010, Boulder, COUpdated GSI User’s Guide v2.0Community GSI advisory committee T&E activity report
Resource Requirements
Staff Category FTE Cost
Scientists 3.2 $514.6K
Software Engineers 0.5 $88.9K
Other(e.g., Travel) $18K
Total 3.7 $621.5K
What is MET?
A community software package.
Basic tools for verification.
Advanced tools for verification.
Up to date.Supported.
MET Goals
Maintain and improve a consistent, complete, current set of verification tools for NWP community.
Support these tools through email help and tutorials.
Investigate new methods to incorporate into MET.
Major Accomplishments for FY 2009Release of MET 2.0, with wavelet and probability methods.
DTC verification workshop on cloud and ensemble verification.
Implementation and completion of first two full length MET tutorials.
Wavelet decomposition difference
Proposed Activities for FY 2010
Development of methods for evaluating forecasts through time.
Enhancement of ensemble and cloud verification methods.
Test prototype METViewer with HWT.
Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010Release of MET 3.0, with cloud and ensemble
verification capability.
DTC verification workshopEvaluating forecasts through timeCloud verification methods
Prototype release of database and display system, METViewer.