Big Trends of 2011 Part I
Transcript of Big Trends of 2011 Part I
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Work
Lifestyle
Play
Consume
Big Trends of 2011Forget everything you think you
know
Plus, trends in
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TodayI. Big shifts of 2011
i. Demographicsii. Economic perceptionsiii. Outlookiv. Values
(break)
II. Interesting stuffI. WorkII. LifeIII. PlayIV. Consume
III. Teen trends
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is evolving…America
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The classic nuclear family (married couple with children) now
accounts for only 22% of households
White children will in the minority by the year 2019
College-educated Americans are now more likely to get married and stay married than Americans with only a
high school diploma
For the first time, rural Americans are just as
likely to be divorced as city dwellers
Source: Mintel Inspire 2011
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Marriage on the wane
• Extended period of adolescence
• Economic barriers• Glamorized single
lifestyle
Trend 1: Delayed marriage- Co-habitation has become the norm at more than 50%- Median age at first marriage for men rose by six years since prime Baby Boomer yearsTrend 2: Never marry- Especially among more downscale and less educated- Over ¾ of Americans over 18 were married in 1960, but only 52% todayKey Drivers
Source: Nielsen
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The minority reportFrom 2000 to 2010
minorities were responsible for 92% of
the US population growth
1/3 of US is non-white
60% of growth of immigrant population was in areas where immigrants made up less than 5% of the population in 2000Source: Mintel 2011
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What’s all the chatter about Hispanics?
By 2015, 1 in 5 Americans will be Hispanic
1 in 3 of new suburbanites is
Hispanic
U.S. Hispanic buying power is over $1
trillion
Source: Mintel 2011
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Economy and the psyche
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Things are looking grim…
Although the last U.S. recession
officially ended in 2009, 80% of Americans believe the economy is
currently in a recession
42% say the U.S. economy is worse than it was last year
61% expecting economic conditions to be
similar to now, or worse
Source: Gallup Poll | September 2011
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Belief in the “American dream” on the decline
1986 1993 2000 2007 2010
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22
1318
39
5550
45
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32
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17
How Alive Is the American Dream?
Source: Roper Reports US November 2010 TeleCell
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1986 1993 2000 2004 2010
45
64
4753
65
32
1922 22 20
23
13
2721
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Compared to a Generation Ago, Dream Is…
Source: Roper Reports US Fall Core 2010, Q68 (online); RRUS 04-1, 01-1, and 94-1 in-person surveys; 1986 Roper custom study for The Wall Street Journal
Perception = Reality
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1977 1987 1992 20104
59 13
18 21 2331
60 5751
44
12 16 14 102 2 1 1
Lower Lower Middle Middle Upper MiddleUpper
All things considered, in which of these classes would you place yourself?
Down 16 pts since 1977Up 13 pts since 1977
72% say “Rich” = $250K+Perception = Reality
Source: Roper Reports US
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13© Copyright GfK Custom Research North America 2011. Proprietary and Confidential
1994: 28 points
2010: 33 points
Source: Roper Reports US Fall Core 2010
Biggest gaps today:Belonging to private club or country club
63% status symbol vs. 11% want = 52pt. gap, +6 from 1994
Living in an exclusive neighborhood 66% status symbol vs. 18% want = 48pt. gap, +13 from 1994
Fastest growing gap since 1994:Owning an expensive car
From a 21-pt. gap between status symbol and aspiration to a 39pt. gap
Growing gap between wants vs. status symbols
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into lemonadeTurning lemons
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Despite economic woes, Americans still happy
• Eight in 10 Americans say they are generally happy with their life
• Two-thirds of US. adults believe that happiness is due to relationships with friends and family Source: The Harris Poll Annual Happiness Index 2011
US Hap-pi-
ness Index
04080
Somewhat Happy
Very Happy
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Americans are still hopeful about the future
• Although only 16% of Americans consider themselves well off, 50% think they will be in five to ten years
• More than 60% think their financial situation will get better next year
Source: Reuters; Hart Research Associates16
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Technology remains a pillar of optimism
54% of Americans feel the Internet
and technology have “significantly expanded the meaning of ‘community,’” +8 points from 2007…
61% believe the effect of technology on society provides
optimismHeavy tech users achieve better work-life balance (netbook/tablet owners +9 pts)
Source: Roper Reports US November 2010 TeleCell
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* “Technology Forwards” are those optimistic about the effect of technology on society
Source: Roper Reports US Spring Core 2010
Technology Forwards*are more optimistic about everything
• Higher household income
• Future of country (52% vs. 42%)
• Future of economy (48% vs.
39%)
• Country on “right track” (42% vs. 35%)
• “Good time to buy” (27% vs.
24%)
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Top things that Americans
would like to do or have1998 2010
Travel abroad frequently for pleasure #6 #1
Have a beautifully decorated home 3 2Own a vacation home 1 3
Have latest tech products 12 4
Fly first class 8 5Stay in luxury hotels 2 6
Own your own business 7 7Own an expensive car 4 8
Eat at expensive restaurants 5 9Send your children to private
schools 14 10Live in an exclusive neighborhood 13 11
Own expensive jewelry 9 12
Cell phone has replaced “driving where I want/when I want” as the last thing Americans will let go
Source: Roper Reports US 2010-Fall (online)
Living in a gadget nation
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Shifts in Values
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A Recessionary Mindset
Source: Roper Reports US Spring Core 2011 and prior waves (online)
Self-reliance +10
Thrift +6
Working hard +3
Faith -3Tradition -3
Knowledge -3Learning -3
Helpfulness -4Enjoying life -4Having fun -7
Largest individual values changes – 2008-2011 (by rankings)
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In recession, Americans place high value in being “Self-directed”
• 22% Americans (vs. 13% global average) can be classified as “Self-Directeds”, independent-minded consumers who go their own way and prioritize the Values of Freedom, Self-Reliance, and Authenticity, according to Roper.
Source: Roper US Spring Core 2011
Americans’ Values Types % classified in ValueScope™
segment
• 75% of Self-Directeds say “control over my life” is part of their vision of the Good Life, +12 from total online
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Long Term Shifts –Emerging from DIY to DIO
Fully half of Influential Americans now feel connected to an online community, more than double the response of just two years ago,
In Just Two Years, Influentials’ Connection to Online Community Doubles
% of Influential Americans who feel “a strong connection” or “some connection” to group*
Source: Roper Reports US Fall Core 2010
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Sense of community rooted in online connections
Source: Roper Reports US TeleCell 2009
54% of Influential Americans® feel the Internet and technology have “significantly expanded the
meaning of ‘community,’” +8 points from 2007
37% of Influential Americans think that “people are more
connected with other people than they were 10 years ago,”
+5 points from 2007
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2011 Rank change from 2001
Protecting the family 1 0Stable personal relationships 2 +3Freedom 3 -1
Authenticity 4 0
Self-reliance 5 +1
Friendship 6 -3
Enjoying life 7 +3Learning 8 -1
Social tolerance 9 +5
Helpfulness 10 +4
Personal Values Change -Rank Order
Source: Roper Reports US Spring Core 2011 (online)
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Values shift towards human connections
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(online)
Evian: Live Young
Top personal values of high income ($100K+) and low income (<$30K) consumers that are valued equally between groups
iPad: We’ll Always
Coke: Open Happiness
Values that transcend earnings
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"While Americans recognize that it is going to be harder and they see challenges facing their kids, there is still a feeling of optimism that it
really does matter if you work hard and if you have ambition…”
– Pew Economic Mobility Project