Big Questions in Geography

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The Big Questions in GeographySusan L. Cutter a; Reginald Golledge b; William L. Graf a

a University of South Carolina,. b University of California, Santa Barbara.

Online Publication Date: 01 August 2002

To cite this Article Cutter, Susan L., Golledge, Reginald and Graf, William L.(2002)'The Big Questions in Geography',The ProfessionalGeographer,54:3,305 — 317

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ARTICLES

The Big Questions in Geography

Susan L. Cutter

University of South Carolina

Reginald Golledge

University of California, Santa Barbara

William L. Graf

University of South Carolina

In noting his fondness for geography, John Noble Wilford, science correspondent for

The New York Times

, neverthe-less challenged the discipline to articulate those big questions in our field, ones that would generate public interest,media attention, and the respect of policymakers. This article presents our collective judgments on those significantissues that warrant disciplinary research. We phrase these as a series of ten questions in the hopes of stimulating a di-alogue and collective research agenda for the future and the next generation of geographic professionals.

Key Words:geographic ideas, geographic research, geographic thought.

Introduction

t the 2001 national meeting of the Associa-tion of American Geographers (AAG) in

New York City, the opening session featured anaddress by John Noble Wilford, science corre-spondent for

The New York Times.

In very can-did language, Wilford challenged the disciplineto articulate the big questions in our field—questions that would capture the attention ofthe public, the media, and policymakers (Abler2001). The major questions posed by Wilford’sremarks include the following: Are geogra-phers missing big questions in their research?Why is the research by geographers on big is-sues not being reported? And what role can theAAG play in improving geographic contribu-tions to address big issues?

First, geographers are doing research onsome major issues facing modern society, butnot all of them. Geographic thinking is a pri-mary component of the investigation of globalwarming, for example. Products of that re-search seen by decision makers and the publicoften take the form of maps and remote-sensing images that explain the geographicoutcomes of climate change. Geographic ap-proaches are at the heart of much of theanalysis addressing natural and technological

hazards, with public interaction taking placethrough the mapping media. Earthquake, vol-canic, coastal, and riverine hazards are all sub-ject to spatial analysis that has become familiarto the public. The terrorist attacks of 11 Sep-tember 2001 have stimulated new interest ingeographic information systems that can beused in response to hazardous events and asguidance in emergency preparedness and re-sponse (Figure 1).

In addition to these recent challenges, how-ever, there are major issues that geographersare not addressing adequately at the presenttime, as illustrated by the accounting that fol-lows in this article. A primary reason for thedisconnect between capability to help solveproblems and the application of those skills formany major issues is the sociology of the disci-pline of geography. The majority of AAGmembers, for example, are academicians, andtheir agendas and reward structures are tar-geted at specialized research deeply buried inparadigms that are obscure to decision makersand the public. Additionally, this social struc-ture tends to lead geographic researchers intoinvestigations on small problems that can besolved quickly, produce professional publi-cations, and support a drive for promotionand tenure, rather than investigating more

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Volume 54, Number 3, August 2002

complex, bigger problems that are not easily orquickly solved and do not necessarily lead toacademic publications of a type the genre usu-ally demands.

With few exceptions, those geographers out-side the university setting are scattered andwork individually, in small groups, or as mem-bers of larger interdisciplinary teams forgovernmental agencies, businesses, or privateorganizations. Because there are few true“institutes” of geographic research, it is diffi-cult to focus geographic energy on big prob-lems. Many geographers in these settings areresponding to immediate and short-term de-mands on their time and talents, rather thanleading the larger-scale investigations.

The work in which many geographers en-gage to address major problems is not reportedfor two reasons: it does not fit the classic moldfor the research journals where geographersget their greatest career awards, and work re-lated to policy often emerges without attribu-tion to the researchers of origin. A significantexample that illustrates this point is the work ofthe Committee on Geography of the Board onEarth Sciences and Resources in the NationalResearch Council (NRC). The committee over-sees study committees, which produce geo-graphic studies and reports to guide the federalgovernment in a wide variety of issues thatqualify as big questions. Recent work, contrib-uted to primarily by geographers and accom-

plished from a geographic perspective, includesadvice to the U.S. Geological Survey on refor-mulating its research programs to address geo-graphic issues entangled in urban expansion,hazards, and mapping. In other cases, one studycommittee is producing direction for the fed-eral government on what decision makers andthe general public need to know about theworld of Islam, while another is investigatingtransportation issues related to urban conges-tion and the development of livability indicators.Other geographers participate in the WaterScience and Technology Board of the NRC,with recent contributions including the use ofthe watershed concepts in ecosystem manage-ment and the role of dams in the security ofpublic water supplies. Another example involvesa geographer-led multidisciplinary group to in-vestigate spatial thinking, and another geogra-pher led a major effort in global mapping. In allof these cases, geographers play a central role,but the product of their work is ascribed only toan organization (the NRC), and individuals arerecognized only in lists of contributors. If thereports successfully influence policy, the deci-sion makers who actuate that policy take creditfor the process, rather than the original investi-gators who made the recommendations.

The AAG plays a role in stimulating theresearch that addresses big questions of im-portance to modern society by recognizingsuch work and publicizing it. It may be that

Figure 1 Manhattan, New York, before the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 (left), and after (right).Photos by S. L. Cutter.



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individual researchers will be more willing toundertake such research if their work is recog-nized by their colleagues in the discipline asbeing important and worthy of praise. TheAAG can influence the National Science Foun-dation, the National Endowment for the Hu-manities, the National Institutes of Health, theNational Geographic Society, and other fund-ing sources to channel attention and resourcesto individuals or teams examining the big ques-tions. Individual geographers are not likely tobe able to exert much influence, except whenthey serve on review panels for these organiza-tions, but the AAG can exert its influence fromits steady and visible presence in Washington.

In trying to identify those issues that mightqualify as big questions (Table 1), we have in-cluded wide-ranging concepts that encompasssome conceptual issues (such as scale), but alsopoint out specific topical areas that seem to de-mand particular attention at the moment. Weargue that such diverse big ideas belong in thisaccounting because, in the end, they are relatedto each other and mutually supportive. Some ofthese big questions may be obscure to the pub-lic, but most of them are familiar to researchersand policymakers alike, who have already be-gun to address them. There is little hope thatany collection of big questions can identifyproblems of equal “bigness,” but the ones wehave identified all seem to warrant teams of re-searchers and significant funding rather thanfollowing the discipline’s usual mode of a singleor small group of investigators with fundinglimited to one or two years in duration. Thecommunication of geographic research find-ings to the public in thoughtful, useful ways

represents a major challenge. This challenge,by itself, can also be regarded as yet another bigproblem facing the discipline. With these in-troductory comments in mind, we now turn tothose questions that we feel are important forthe geographic community to address.

What Makes Places and Landscapes Different from One Another and

Why Is This Important?

This first question goes to the core of thediscipline—the relevance of similarities anddifferences among people, places, and regions.What is the nature of uneven economic devel-opment and what can geography contribute tounderstanding this phenomenon? More specif-ically, how can national and global policies beimplemented in a world that is increasinglyfragmented politically, socially, culturally, andenvironmentally?

To elaborate on this question, we accept anassumption that the human mind is not con-structed to handle large-scale continuouschaos. Nor does it function optimally whendealing with large-scale perfect uniformity. Be-tween these two extremes there is variability,which is the dominant characteristic of boththe natural world and the human world. To un-derstand the nature of physical and human ex-istence, we need to examine the occurrence anddistribution of variability in various domains.For geographers, this examination has involvedexploring the nature of spatial distributions,patterns, and associations, examining the ef-fects of scale, and developing modes of repre-sentation that best communicate the outcomesof these explorations. In the course of thissearch for understanding of the essentials ofspatial variation, geographers have attemptedto comprehend the interaction between physi-cal and human environments, how peopleadapt to different environments, and howknowledge about human-environment rela-tions can be communicated through appropri-ate representational media.

Even in the absence of humans, the earth andthe phenomena found on this planet are in-credibly diverse. Variability is widespread; uni-formity is geographically restricted. Determin-ing the nature and occurrence of variability anduniformity are at the heart of the discipline ofgeography. No other area of inquiry has, as its

Table 1

Big Questions in Geography

1. What makes places and landscapes different from one another, and why is this important?

2. Is there a deeply held human need to organize space by creating arbitrary borders, boundaries, and districts?

3. How do we delineate space?4. Why do people, resources, and ideas move?5. How has the earth been transformed by human action?6. What role will virtual systems play in learning about the

world?7. How do we measure the unmeasurable?8. What role has geographical skill played in the evolution of

human civilization, and what role can it play in predicting the future?

9. How and why do sustainability and vulnerability change from place to place and over time?

10.

What is the nature of spatial thinking, reasoning, and

abilities?


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primary goal, discovering, representing, andexplaining the nature of spatial variability innatural and human environments at scales be-yond the microscopic and the figural (bodyspace) such as vista, environmental, or giganticand beyond (Montello 1993). Most geographyhas been focused on vista, environmental orgigantic scales, but some (e.g., cognitive-behavioral) emphasizes figural scale. Findingpatterns or trends towards regularity at somedefinable scale amidst this variability providesthe means for generalizing, modeling, andtransferring knowledge from one spatial do-main to another. Law-like and theoreticalstatements can be made, and confidence in therelevance of decisions and policies designed tocope with existence can be determined.

Among other things, geographers have re-peatedly found, at some scales, spatial regular-ity in distributions of occurrences that seemrandom or indeed chaotic at other scales.Sometimes this results from selecting an ap-propriate scale and format for summarizingand representing information. Examples in-clude using very detailed environmental-scaledata to discover the topologic properties ofstream networks, or establishing the regularand random components of human settlementpatterns in different environments.

Realizing the spatial variability in all phe-nomena is a part of the naïve understanding ofthe world. Being able to explain the nature ofvariability is the academic challenge that drivesthe discipline of geography. Like other scien-tists, geographers examine variability in theirsearch for knowledge and understanding of theworld we live in, particularly in the human-environment relations and interactions that area necessity for our continued existence.

Is There a Deeply Held Human Need to Organize Space by Creating Arbitrary Borders, Boundaries,

and Districts?

Humans, by their very nature, are territo-rial. As human civilizations grew from hunter-gatherers to more sedentary occupations, phys-ical manifestation of the demarcation of spaceensued. Hadrian’s Wall kept the Scots and Pictsout, the Great Wall of China protected the MingDynasties from the Mongols, and the earlywalled cities of Europe protected those places

from barbarians and other acquisitive sociocul-tural groups.

At a more limited scale, internal spaces incities were also divided, often based on occupa-tion and/or class. As civilizations grew, spacewas organized and reorganized into districtsthat supported certain economic activities.City-states begat nation-states, and eventuallymost of the world was carved up into politicalspaces. Nation-states required borders andboundaries (all involving geography), as landand the oceans (and the resources containedwithin) were carved up into non-equal units.Within nations, land partitioning has been afactor in the decline of environmental quality.For example, the erection of barbed-wire fenc-ing on the Great Plains to separate farming andranching homesteads from each other did moreto hasten the decline of indigenous species andlandscape degradation than any other inven-tion at the time (Worster 1979, 1993).

The modern equivalent of the human needand desire for delineating space is the notion ofprivate property. Suburban homes with tallfences between neighbors, for example, helpfoster the ideal of separation from neighborsand disengagement from the community, bothpredicated on the need to protect “what’smine” (and of course the ubiquitous propertyvalue) as well as providing a basic need for pri-vacy. The tendency for the rich to get richerand the poor to get poorer also applies to thevalues of these divided properties. The diffu-sion of democratically controlled, market-based economies to much of the globe in-creases the significance of research that ex-plores why we divide space. Pressing researchquestions include, for example: Are ghettosbursting with poverty-level inhabitants an in-evitable consequence of democratic capitalistsocieties? Are such societies amenable to con-cerns for social justice? And how would suchconcerns influence the patterns and distribu-tions of living activities?

We also lack some of the basic understand-ing of how the physical delineation of space af-fects our perception of it. Furthermore, weneed better knowledge of how perceptions ofphysical space alter social, physical, and envi-ronmental processes. Finally, has globalizationchanged our view of the social construction ofspace? Does physical space still support spatialrelations and spatial interactions, or are they



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becoming somewhat independent, as may bethe case in social space, intellectual space, andcyberspace? How will the interactions betweenpeople, places, and regions change as our viewof space (and time, for that matter) changes?

How Do We Delineate Space?

Once we understand

why

we partition space, weface a closely related issue:

how

do we do it?The definition of regions by drawing bound-aries is deceptively simple. The criteria bywhich we delineate space have far-reachingconsequences, because the resulting divisionsof space play a large role in determining howwe perceive the world. A map of the UnitedStates showing the borders of the states, for ex-ample, evokes a very different perception of thenation than a similar scale map showing theborders of the major river basins. A further dif-ference in perception is created if the mapshows major rivers as networks rather than asbasins, and the resulting difference betweenperception of networks and perception of re-gions can direct knowledge and its application indivergent ways (National Research Council 1999,x). For example, should we conduct pollution-oriented research on rivers or on watersheds, oron the state administrative units that potentiallymight control pollution? What are the implica-tions of our choice of geographic framework?

The logical, rational delineation of spaces onthe globe depends on the criteria to be used,but geographic research offers few established,widely accepted rules about what these criteriashould be or how they might be employed. Thedesignation of political boundaries without re-spect to ethnic cultures has wrought havoc inmuch of postcolonial Africa and central Eu-rope, for example, but geographers have notyet offered workable alternatives that accountfor the complexities of multicultural popula-tions. In natural-science research and manage-ment, a major issue is the establishment ofmeaningful regions that can be aggregated to-gether to scale up, or that can be disaggregatedto scale down. Natural scientists also experi-ence significant difficulty in designing compat-ible regions across topical subjects. For exam-ple, the blending of watersheds, ecosystems,and ranges of particular species poses signifi-cant problems in environmental management.Adding to the complexity from a management

and policy perspective is the tangle of adminis-trative regions, whose boundaries are oftenderived from political boundaries rather thannatural ones. Recognition of these problems iseasy but offering thoughtful geographic solu-tions to them is not.

Geographers have much to contribute to thedelineation of space by developing new knowl-edge and techniques for defining subdivisions ofearth space based on specific criteria, includingeconomic efficiency, compatibility across appli-cations, ease of aggregation and disaggregation,repeatability, and universality of application. Ge-ographers need to develop methods for delineat-ing space that either resist change over time oraccommodate temporal changes smoothly.

A continuing example of delineating spacethat has important political implications is theprocess of defining American congressionaldistricts once each decade based on the popula-tion census. The need for fair representation,relative uniformity in population numbers ineach district, recognition of traditional com-munities, and accommodation of changingpopulation distributions comprise some of thecriteria that need not equate to partisan politicsin constructing at least the first approximationof redrawn district boundaries (Monmonier2001). Some states have nonpartisan commis-sions to delineate the districts, yet geographyprovides very little substantive advice on thesubject to guide such groups.

Why do People, Resources,

and Ideas Move?

One of the fundamental concepts in geographyis the understanding that goods, services,people, energy, materials, money, and evenideas flow through networks and across spacefrom place to place. Although geography facesquestions about all these movements, one ofthe most pressing questions concerns themovement of people. We have some knowl-edge about the behavior of people who movetheir residences from one place to another, andwe can observe obvious economic forces lead-ing to the migration of people toward locationsof relative economic prosperity. However, wehave much less understanding about the epi-sodic movements of people in cities. In mostdeveloped countries, the congestion of vehic-ular traffic has become a significant negative


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feature in assessing the quality of life, andin lesser-developed countries the increasingnumber of vehicles used in the context of in-adequate road networks results in frustratingdelays. Geography can and should address fun-damental issues such as the environmental con-sequences of the decision to undertake laboriousjourneys to work (e.g., contributions of vehicleexhaust to air pollution, the possible environ-mental changes induced by telecommuting,and the need for alternative-fuel, low-pollutionvehicles). In addition to understanding the en-vironmental consequences of daily moves, thediscipline has much to offer in describing, ex-plaining, and predicting the sociocultural con-sequences of these decisions.

The flow of vehicles on roadways involvesobvious physical networks, but there areother flows demanding attention that operatethrough more abstract spaces. The diffusion ofculture—particularly “Western” culture, withits emphasis on materialism and individualism—is one of the leading edges of globalization ofthe world economy. Geographers must beginto address how these social, cultural, and eco-nomic forces operate together to diffuse, froma few limited sources, an extensive array ofideas and attitudes that are accepted by a di-verse set of receiving populations. Even if suchdiffusion takes place through digital space, itprobably does so in a distinctive geography thatwe should understand if we are to explain andpredict the world in the twenty-first century.

The electrical energy crisis of 2001 made usaware, quite vividly, of the finiteness of nonre-newable resources such as oil and gas and of thedifficulties in their distributions. We have al-ready consumed more than 50 percent of theworld’s known reserves of these resources. His-torically, as one energy source has replacedanother (as when coal power replaced waterpower), there have been changes in the loca-tional patterns, growth, importance of settle-ments, and significance of regions. Examplesinclude the decline of heavy industrial areasinto “rust belts” and their replacement withservice- and information-based centers thathave more locational flexibility. As current en-ergy sources change, what will happen to urbanlocation and growth? Will the geopoliticalpower structure of the world change markedly?For example, will the countries that are part ofthe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries (OPEC) retain their global eco-nomic power and political strength? Will exist-ing populations and settlements decline, orrelocate to alternative sources of energy? Whatwill be the geographic configuration of theeconomic and political power that goes withsuch changes?

Finally, the more physically oriented flows,such as those of energy and materials, present ademanding set of questions for geographers.While geochemists are deriving the magni-tudes of elemental fluxes of such substances ascarbon and nitrogen, for example, it is incum-bent on geographers to point out that thesefluxes do not take place in aspatial abstractways, but rather in a physically and socially de-fined landscape that has important locationalcharacteristics. In other words, although theremay very well be an understanding of theamounts of nitrogen circulating from earth tooceans to atmosphere, that circulation is noteverywhere equal. How does human manage-ment affect the nitrogen and other elementalcycles? What explains its geographic variabil-ity? How does that variability change in re-sponse to controls not related to human inter-vention? This leads to our next big question.

How Has the Earth Been Transformed

by Human Action?

Humans have altered the earth, its atmosphere,and its water on scales ranging from local toglobal (Thomas 1956; Turner et al. 1990). Atthe local scale, many cities and agriculturallandscapes represent nearly complete artificial-ity in a drive to create comfortable places inwhich to live and work, and to maximize agri-cultural production for human benefit. Thetransformations have also had negative effectsat local scales, such as altering the chemicalcharacteristics of air and water, convertingthem into media that are toxic for humans aswell as other species. At regional scales, humanactivities have resulted in wholesale changes inecosystems, such as the deforestation of north-west Europe over the past several centuries, aprocess that seems to be being replicated inmany tropical regions today. At a global scale,the introduction of industrial gases into the at-mosphere plays a still emerging role in globalclimate change. Taken together, these transfor-mations have had a geographically variable



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effect that geographers must better define andexplain. Dilsaver and Colten (1992, 9) suc-cinctly outlined the basic questions almost adecade ago: How have human pursuits trans-formed the environment, and how have humansocial organizations exerted their control overenvironments? Graf (2001) recently asked howwe can undo some of our previous efforts at en-vironmental change and control.

In many instances, this explanation of varia-tion might emphasize the physical aspects ofchanges, or understanding the underlying dy-namics of why the changes occur (Dilsaver,Wyckoff, and Preston 2000). Wide-rangingassessments of river basins, for example, mustrely on a plethora of controlling factors rangingfrom land use to water, sediment, and contami-nant movements. Geographers must employmore complicated and insightful approaches,however, to truly understand why transforma-tions vary from place to place, largely in re-sponse to the connection between the biophys-ical environment and the human society thatoccupies it. Understanding this delicate inter-play between nature and society as a two-way

connection can lead us to new knowledge aboutsocial and environmental landscapes, but it canalso help us make better decisions on how toachieve future landscapes that are more oftentransformed in nondestructive ways.

One of the primary issues facing many soci-eties in their relationship with their supportingenvironments is how much of the biophysicalworld should be left unchanged, or at leastchanged to the minimal degree possible. Theamount of remaining “natural” landscape inmany nations is small—probably less than 5percent of the total surface—so time is grow-ing short to decide what areas should be setaside and preserved (Figure 2). Not only dothese preservation decisions affect land andwater surfaces; they also profoundly affect non-human species that use the surfaces for habitat.If human experience is enriched by diverseecosystems, then the decline in biodiversityimpoverishes humanity as well. Which areasshould be preserved and why? How shouldpreserved areas be linked with one other? Howcan public and private property productivelycoexist with nearby preserved areas?

Figure 2 A local example of transformations brought about in the natural world by humans. The lowerSandy River of western Oregon appears to be a pristine river, but it has radically altered water, sediment,and biological systems because of upstream dams. Photo by W. L. Graf.


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What Role Will Virtual Systems Play

in Learning about the World?

Stated another way, what will virtual systemsallow us to do in the future that we cannot donow? What new problems can be pursued(Golledge forthcoming)? Providing an answeropens a Pandora’s box of questions concerningthe geographic impacts of new technologies(Goodchild 2000). What new multimodal in-terfaces for interpreting visualized onscreendata need to be developed in order to overcomecurrent technological constraints of geo-graphic data visualization? Can we produce avirtual geography? Do we really want to?

One serious problem that deserves immedi-ate attention is the examination of the geo-graphic implications of the development ofeconomies and societies based on informationtechnology. In particular, the sociospatial im-plications of an increasing division between thedigital haves and have-nots demand attention.Pursuing such a problem will require answer-ing questions about the geographic conse-quences of employment in cyberspace and itsimplication for human movements such as

migration, intraurban mobility, commuting, andactivity-space restructuring. The current ex-tensive demand for and use of transportation forbusiness purposes may need to be re-examined.It may be argued that, in the world of businesscommunication, geographic distance is a de-creasingly important factor, because both digi-tal and visual interaction can take place at theclick of a mouse button without the need forperson-to-person confrontation. If this is so,what are the longer-term impacts for livingand lifestyles, and how could the inhabitationand use of geographic environments be af-fected? If this is true, why is it that we see dra-matic concentrations of cyber-businesses in afew areas, similar to the locational behavior ofpre-digital industries? Are Silicon Valley inCalifornia and Route 128 in Massachusettssimply the “rust belts” of the future?

Research has shown that the most effectiveway of learning about an environment is by di-rectly experiencing it, so that all sensory mo-dalities are activated during that experience(Figure 3) (Gale 1984; Lloyd and Heivly 1987;MacEachren 1992). However, many places aredistant or inaccessible to most people. The

Figure 3 Exploring immersive virtual worlds with equipment developed between 1992 and 2001,showing the original and the miniaturized versions of a GPS-driven auditory virtual environment at theUniversity of California, Santa Barbara. The more cumbersome 1992 version is shown on the left, with thereduced 2001 version on the right. Psychologist Jack Loomis and associates developed the system,demonstrated here by author Reginald Golledge. Photos courtesy of R. Golledge.



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interior of the Amazon rainforest, the arctictundra of northern Siberia, Himalayan peaks,the interior of the Sahara desert, Antarctica andthe South Pole, the barrios of Rio de Janeiro,and the Bosnian highlands can become muchcloser to us. Satellite imagery provides detaileddigitized imagery of these places. A problemawaiting solution is how to use this extensivedigital database to build virtual systems thatwill allow immersive experiences with such en-vironments. Problems of motion-sickness ex-perienced by some people in immersive sys-tems need to be solved; assuming this will beachieved, virtual reality could become the labo-ratory of the future for experiencing differentplaces and regions around the world.

Discovering how best to deal with problem-atic futures, on earth or on other planets, is def-initely one of the big problems facing currentand future geographers. Many land use plan-ning, transportation, and social policies aremade on an “if ______ then ______” basis.Because we are unable to change the worldexperimentally, we need to investigate otherways of observing environmental events andchanges. Examples include changing a streetfor vehicles to a pedestrian mall to explore hu-man movement behavior, or experiencing theaction and consequences of snow or mud ava-lanches in tourist-dependent alpine environ-ments. What more can we learn by buildingand manipulating virtual environments? In avirtual system, we can raise local pollution lev-els, accelerate global warming, change sea levelsby melting icecaps, or simulate the impacts ofstrictly enforcing land conversion policies atthe rural-urban fringes of large cities. In theface of an increasingly international economyand globalization of environmental issues,there is a need to develop a way to explore pos-sible scenarios before implementing policiestheoretically designed to deal with global (ormore local) problems.

How Do We Measure

the Unmeasurable?

Geography is normally practiced at local to na-tional scales at which we can get a clear sense ofthe existence or development of patterns andprocesses. People, landscapes, and resourcesare not evenly distributed on the earth’s sur-face, so we begin with a palette that is diverse.

How can we accommodate such diversity inpolicies to avoid winners and losers? Econo-mists, for example, assume away all spatialvariability in their economic models. Whathappens to general models when space is intro-duced? How can we transform from the local tothe global and vice versa? The question of scaletransformation, especially the calibration oflarge-scale global circulation models or the de-velopment of climate-impact models globallywith local or regional applications is a majorarea in which geography can contribute and isplaying a leading role (AAG GCLP Groupforthcoming).

We need to develop more compatible data-bases that have an explicit geographic compo-nent, with geocoded data that permit us to scaleup and scale down as the need arises. Data col-lection, archiving, and dissemination all areareas that require our expertise, be it demo-graphic data, environmental data, or land-usedata. The large question is, how do we main-tain a global information system that goes be-yond the petty tyrannies of nation-states (andthe need to protect information for “security”reasons), yet protects individuals’ right to pri-vacy? The selective use of remote-sensingtechniques to monitor environmental condi-tions has been helpful in understanding thelinkages between local activities and global im-pacts. However, can we use advanced technol-ogy to support demographic data collectionand analyses and still maintain safeguards onprivacy protection (Liverman et al. 1998)? Forexample, recent Supreme Court decisions haveplaced important legal protections on the useof thermal infrared sensors in public safety.

Another series of issues involves the aggre-gation of human behaviors. How can we geo-graphically aggregate data along a set of com-mon dimensions to insure its representation ofreality and get around the thorny issues of aver-aging and the mean-areal-center or modified-areal-unit problems? We often use techniquesto handle aggregated populations and areasthat in fact, depart from reality, creating a typeof artificial environment. Unfortunately, publicpolicies all too often are based on these con-structed realities, thus further exacerbating thedistribution of goods, services, and resources.What new spatial statistical tools do we need toaddress this concern?

Lastly, in a post-11-September world, how


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do we measure the geography of fear? Does therestriction of geographic data (presumably fornational security reasons) attenuate or amplifyfear of the unknown? The discipline requiresthe open access to information and data aboutthe world and the people who live there. Dataaccess will be one of the key issues for our com-munity to address in the coming years.

What Role Has Geographical Skill Played in the Evolution of Human Civilization, and What Role Can

It Play in Predicting the Future?

Is there a necessary geographic base to humanhistory? If so, how can we improve our ability topredict spatial events and events that have spatialconsequences that will fundamentally shape thefuture? Can we develop the geographic equiva-lent of leading economic indicators?

From the early cradles of civilization in Af-rica and Asia, humankind gradually colonizedthe earth. This process of redistributing peoplein space (migration) was caused by populationgrowth, resource exhaustion, attractive un-tapped resources, environmental change, envi-ronmental hazard, disease, or invasion and suc-cession by other human groups. But what skillsand abilities were required to ensure success inrelocation movements? Were the movementsrandom or consciously directed? If they weredirected, then what skills and/or abilities wererequired by explorers, leaders, and followers toensure success? What criteria had to be satis-fied before resettlement was possible? Whatnew geographic skills and abilities have beendeveloped throughout human history, andwhich ones have deteriorated or disappeared?Have geographic skills and abilities been main-tained equally in males and females? If not,what developments in the evolution of humancivilizations have mediated such losses orchanges?

While we know much about human history,we know little about the geographical basis ofworld history, and we know little of the extentto which the presence or absence of geographicknowledge played a significant part in histori-cal development. For example, would Napo-leon’s invasion of Russia been more successfulhad skilled and knowledgeable geographerscounseled him on the route chosen and the

appropriate season for movement? Historiansoften tell us that understanding the past is thekey to knowing the present and to successfullypredicting the future. We cannot fully under-stand the past if we ignore or diminish theimportance of environmental diversity andknowledge about those variations that are theresult of spatial and geographic thinking andreasoning. A similar argument can be made forpredicting future events and behaviors. Whatgeographic knowledge is likely to be importantin prediction? Must we rely on assumptionsabout uniform environments, population char-acteristics, tastes and preferences, customs, be-liefs, and values? Such a procedure is precari-ous at best. However, we do not currently know

how

to incorporate geographic variability intoour models, or indeed what variables should beincorporated into predictive models. Achievingsuch a goal is a necessary part of increasing ourvery limited predictive capabilities.

How and Why Do Sustainability and Vulnerability Change from Place to

Place and over Time?

Historically, geography was an integrative sci-ence with a particular focus on regions. It thenswitched from breadth to depth, with improve-ments in theory, methods, and techniques. Weare now returning to that earlier perspective aswe look for common ground in the interactionsbetween human systems and physical systems.Increasing population pressures, the regionaldepletion or total exhaustion of resources, en-vironmental degradation, and rampant devel-opment are processes that affect the sustain-ability of natural systems and constructedenvironments. There is a movement towardthe integration of many different social andnatural science perspectives into a field calledsustainability science (Kates et al. 2001). Un-derstanding what constrains and enhances sus-tainable environments will be an importantresearch theme in the future. How can wemaintain and improve the quality of urban en-vironments for general living (social, eco-nomic, and environmental conditions)? Howlong can the processes of urban and suburbangrowth continue without deleterious and fun-damental changes in the landscape and the es-calation in costs of environmental restoration?



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Suburban sprawl is already a major policy issue.What is the long-term impact on human sur-vival of the constant usurpation of agriculturalland by the built environment? How long canwe continue slash and burn agriculture in manyparts of the tropical world? What triggers theenvironmental insecurity of nations, and howdoes this lead to armed conflicts and mass mi-grations of people? How have these processesvaried in time and space? What are the greatestthreats to the sustainability of human settle-ments, agriculture, energy use, for example andhow can we mitigate or reduce those threats(NRC 2000)?

Nonsustainable environments enhance theeffect of risks and hazards and ultimately in-crease both biophysical and social vulnerability,often resulting in disasters of one kind or an-other. When societies or ecosystems lack theability to stop decay or decline and they do nothave the adequate means to defend against suchchanges, there can be potentially catastrophicresults. Examples include the environmentaldegradation of the Aral Sea, the increasingAIDS pandemic, and the human and environ-mental costs of coastal living (Heinz Center2000). Vulnerability can be thought of as a con-tinuum of processes, ranging from the initialsusceptibility to harm to resilience (the abilityto recover) to longer-term adaptations in re-sponse to large-scale environmental changes(Cutter, Mitchell, and Scott 2000). These pro-cesses manifest themselves at different geo-graphic scales, ranging from the local to theglobal. What is the threshold when vulnerabil-ity ceases to become something we can dealwith and becomes something we cannot? Atwhat point does the built environment or eco-system extend beyond its own ability to recoverfrom natural or social forces?

What Is the Nature of Spatial

Thinking, Reasoning, and Abilities?

Geographic knowledge is the product of spa-tial thinking and reasoning (Golledge 2002b).These processes require the ability to compre-hend scale changes; transformations of phe-nomena, or representations among one, two,and three spatial dimensions. They also re-quire understanding of: the effect of distance,direction, and orientation on developing spa-tial knowledge; the nature of reference frames

for identifying locations, distributions and pat-terns; the nature of spatial hierarchies; thenature of forms by extrapolating from cross-sections; the significance of adjacency and nearestneighbor concepts; the spatial properties ofdensity, distance, and density decay; and theconfigurations of patterns and shapes in vari-ous dimensions and with differing degrees ofcompleteness. It also requires knowing the im-plications of spatial association and under-standing other concepts not yet adequatelyarticulated or understood. What geographycurrently lacks is an elaboration of the funda-mental geographic concepts and skills that arenecessary for the production and communica-tion of spatial and geographic information. Inthe long run, this will be needed before geog-raphy can develop a well-articulated knowl-edge base of a type similar to other human andphysical sciences.

Conclusion

In the American Declaration of Independence,Thomas Jefferson wrote that among the mostbasic of human rights are life, liberty, and thepursuit of happiness. Each of these rights isplayed out upon a geographic stage, has geo-graphic properties, and operates as a geograph-ical process. Geography, as a field of knowledgeand as a perspective on the world, has paid toolittle attention to these grand ideas, and theyare fertile ground for the seeds of new geo-graphic research. How and why does the op-portunity for the pursuit of happiness varyfrom one place to another, and does the verynature of that pursuit change geographically?

In pursuit of answers to the big questions ar-ticulated above, we will inevitably need to thinkabout doing research on problems such as:

• What are the spatial constraints on pursu-ing goals of life, liberty, and the pursuit ofhappiness?

• What are our future resource needs, andwhere will we find the new resources thathave not, at this stage, been adequatelyexplored?

• When does geography start and finish?Does it matter?

• What are likely to be the major problemsin doing the geography of other planets?

• Will cities of the future remain bound to


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the land surface, or will they move to whatwe now consider unlikely or exotic loca-tions (under water or floating in space)?

The big questions posed here are not all-encompassing. They represent our collectivejudgments (and biases) on what issues are sig-nificant for the discipline, and those thatshould provide a focus for our considerable in-tellectual capital. Not everyone will agree withus, nor should they. We view this article as thebeginning of a dialogue within the discipline asto what are the probable big questions for thenext generation of geographers.

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SUSAN L. CUTTER is Carolina DistinguishedProfessor, Department of Geography, University ofSouth Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208. E-mail: [email protected]. She served as president of the Association ofAmerican Geographers from 2000–2001, and is afellow of the American Association for the Advance-



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ment of Science (AAAS). Her research interests arevulnerability science, and environmental hazardspolicy and management.

REGINALD GOLLEDGE is a Professor of Geog-raphy at the University of California, Santa Barbara,Santa Barbara, CA 93106. E-mail: [email protected] and served as AAG president from 1999 to2000. His research interests include various aspectsof behavioral geography (spatial cognition, cognitivemapping, spatial thinking), the geography of disabil-

ity (particularly the blind), and the development oftechnology (guidance systems and computer inter-faces) for blind users.

WILLIAM L. GRAF is Education Foundation Uni-versity Professor and Professor of Geography at theUniversity of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208.E-mail: [email protected]. He served as AAG president from1998–1999, and is a National Associate of the Na-tional Academy of Science. His specialties are fluvialgeomorphology and policy for public land and water.


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