“Big Ego’s and Countervailing Power”

2016, All rights reserved by

“Big Ego’s and Countervailing Power”

FIMAT

Tel Aviv, April 5 2016

by

Joséph H.A.M. Rodenberg

2016. Rodenberg Beheer B.V. All Rights reserved. No parts of this presentation may be reproduced, transmitted or stored in a retrieval system in any form or by means, without

permission in writing from Rodenberg Tillman & Associates in Dwingeloo, The Netherlands

Rodenberg Beheer B.V. retains the ownership of this material and it should not be re-used or reproduced without permission.


Content

2 Our Strategic and Tactical Intelligence Services

3 Debrief ing on Holland Colours’ Needs

1 Introduction to Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

4 Establishing the Competit ive Intelligence Capability

2 Why Things go so Wrong?

3 How can we deliver Countervailing Power

1 Introduction Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

4 War Rooms become our Company Radar Rooms

5 Project Team, Timing and Budget 5 Your Questions


Rodenberg Tillman & Associates is a consultancy firm with a leading

expertise in Strategic Competitive Intelligence

– Rodenberg Tillman & Associates has been established in 1985

– Rodenberg Tillman & Associates is recognized as one of the premier firms

in Strategic Competitive Intelligence in Europe and beyond

– We apply the right combination of functional skills and industry knowledge

via established strategic alliances in a global connected network of over

450 experts, researchers and business analysts worldwide

– Rodenberg Tillman & Associates consulting services in Strategic

Competitive Intelligence concern research execution(1), the process of

implementation(2) and Master Classes(3)

– We have a simple mission: “facilitating the success of our clients”

Introduction to Rodenberg Tillman & Associates


The Intelligence Pyramid® defines five steps from raw

data to concrete actions

Intelligence

Knowledge

Information

Data

Action

Strategic impact &

decision making

Tactical Strategic

Explicit Tacit

Internal External

Quantitative Qualitative

“To be defeated is forgiveable, to be surprised is not”

Towards sustainable and profitable growth

Increasing value


Track Record

Not complete


Track Record

Not complete

http://www.solvay.com/

http://www.vopak.nl/index.php

http://www.tnt.com/

http://www.menzis.nl/web/Consumenten.htm


Content











Why things go so wrong

There are 3 Key Drivers why so many things go wrong in our companies:

I. Big Ego’s and the lack of Countervailing Power

II. Outdated Strategies resulting in loss of Competitive Advantage

III. Lack of Monitoring the dynamics of change in the outside world

VUCA = Volatility – Uncertainty – Complexity – Ambiguity

bron : VUCA-Source Pentagon


Never forget How Big the EGOs are!

We persist in our early judgments

We are quick to accept confirming data

We ignore or reject data that are inconsistent with our lead assumptions

In analyzing data, we tend to discern patterns early, jump to conclusions,

ignore contradictory information and take other mental shortcuts

Big Egos think they know, which in fact isn’t so


Framework of the Causes and Consequences of CEO

Narcissism

Source: Dr. Antoinette Rijsenbilt

CEO Narcissism 1. Authority 2. Superiority 3. Self-Admiration

4. Entitlement

Self-Reflection

Fraud Not Revealed

Compensation

Power

Growth

Perquisites

Satisfying Financial

Performance

Countervailing Power

Media Exposure

Disappointing Financial

Performance Fraud

Fraud Revealed AAER

CEO Narcissism

Score

Hubris


Determinants and Variables of CEO Narcissism

Source: Dr. Antoinette Rijsenbilt

Determinants

Variables

Media Exposure 1. Number of Publications in Newspapers, Business magazines

2. Number of Awards

3. Number of lines in the Marquis who’s who entry

4. Presence and size of the Photo in Annual Report

Compensation 1. Cash Compensation (Salary & Bonus)

2. Total Compensation (TDC1)

3. Ratio Cash Compensation CEO/Second Best Paid Executive

4. Ratio Total Compensation CEO/Second Best Paid Executive

5. Executive Rank by Salary and Bonus

Power 1. CEO Duality

2. Governance Index of Gompers

3. Number of official formal titles of the CEO

Growth 1. Number of Acquisitions

2. Size of Acquisitions

Perquisites 1. Private Use of the Corporate Jet


Does management foresee the Strategic Crisis?

Do We Really?

Strategic crisis

=

Loss of competitive

advantage

Cash flow under

pressure

=

Layoff of people

Deep trouble

=

End of Business

GM, Chrysler, Opel,

Nokia, Blackberry, HP,

Panasonic, Sharp, Sony,

Getronics, KPN, Dutch

Banks, Philips, V&D,

KLM-Air France, etc

ING, ABNAMRO,

RABO, SNS, Philips,

KPN, Post NL, TomTom,

CSM, Miss Etam, Cap

Gemini, Atos, V&D,

CGI(Logica), Blokker,

etc

Hans Textiel, Piet

Kerkhof, Henk ten Hoor,

Leon Mode, Landgraaf,

Schoenenreus, Scapino,

Manfield, Free Record

Shop, Marlies Dekkers,

Halfords, OAD, Xenos,

etc

Strategic Earnings Liquidity


Strategic Intelligence drives Strategy as

Transformation

Source: Vijay Govindarajan/Tuck School of Business

Performance Management

Benchmarkt Best Practices

Focus on Today’s Customers

Focus on Today’s Technologies

Focus on Today’s Competitors

Centralized Resource Allocation

Leverage Current Competencies

Growth and Innovation

Create Next Practices

Focus on Tomorrow’s Customers

Focus on Tomorrow’s Technologies

Focus on Tomorrow’s Competitors

Decentralized Resource Allocation

Build New Competencies

Competition for

the Present

Competition for

the Future

BOX 1

Manage the

Present

BOX 2

Selectively

Abandon the

Past

BOX 3

Create the

Future


What went wrong with Japanese Electronics?

Piracy, digitization, mp3, iPod, Spotify, Netflix

too slow, not vigorous

Counterpart toward Philips and Sony. Demand for

Electronics under pressure.

New entry: Samsung

Great success with flat LCD screens resulting in

less attention to customer and trade:

New entry: Samsung

Outperformance by Chinese and Korean

competitors

In the 1990s 40% SOM in laptops. Intel offered

complete platforms. HP, Dell, Acer, Lenovo took

over.

Has lost positions in all operating markets. Focus

on the B-t-B market of electronics in automotive

sector


What can we learn from Japanese Electronics?

……….. all six have been successful market leaders!

1. Big Boys Big Ego’s and the lack of countervailing power for new

challenges

2. Outdated strategies – too long lasting strategies resulting in loss of

competitive edge

3. Lack of monitoring to foresee timely change: new technologies, new

competitors, new channels, unmet customer needs …..VUCA-World


Examples where it went wrong

Group I: ABNAmro, ING, Rabo, Aegon, Fortis, ASR and SNS

“Today Banker, tomorrow Supervisor”

“Dutch banks sold racing bicycles to people in a wheelchair”

Group II: Fokker, Hoogovens, Getronics, KLM, Corporate Express,

Hagemeyer, Numico, Nedlloyd, VNU, Stork, Draka, Crucell,

Wavin, DE, Exact, Dockwise, Mediq, Hitt, Logica, Ten Cate, TNT

…. and more

Group III: Sun Kings of Vestia, WSG, Woonbron, Rochdale, Servatius,

Laurentius, Rentree, …………. Meavita

Group IV: Accountants as “Criminals in the Accounts” (source: Elsevier, April 2014)

E.g. KPMG: Koop Tjuchem, Philips Pension Fund, Vestia, SNS,

Imtech, Ballast Nedam, SBM offshore, FAS Veen Blaricum, DSM,

KPMG New Headquarters …… Same lists for PwC, Deloitte, EY

NBA : New Chairman Monitoring Commission = Ada van der Veer

Aalberts Industries 1987-2011: + 1900% versus 179% AEX


New Player wants to operate at Amsterdam Schiphol

In 2016 Ryan Air wants to operate at Amsterdam Schiphol. KLM is not

amused!

In 2004 KLM has been acquired by Air France

Air France KLM faces fierce competition from easyJet and Ryan Air

Number of planes Ryan Air / KLM

2000 13 / 186

2005 60 / 182

2010 272 / 204

2015 320 / 200

Air France KLM wants to position Transavia as their price fighter


Case Port of Rotterdam

“We have lost some business from HP, but on the other hand others will come

to Rotterdam. So what? It’s just change within the sector of industry”

PoR is the biggest harbour in Europe with direct competitors Hamburg, Antwerp, Le Havre

and Barcelona;

In 2014 new entrant: Piraeus in Greece;

In 2015 Piraeus will have a capacity of 4,7 million TEU (Rotterdam 12,0 million TEU);

Not the Greek, but the Chinese build it (HP, Huawei followed by Dell, IKEA, Lenovo,

Samsung, Haier and more will come);

From Shanghai to Piraeus is 16.500km per ship.

1. What about the “new silk route”? Distance China – Europe is 11.000km by train:

transportation time 22 days (per ship 35 days)

2. So What?

March 2014

“It’s not enough anymore to just look at sectors of industry. Look at the

Competitive Arena’s”


Case SBM Offshore

“Why top management doesn’t see change?”

1. SBM Offshore is a global player active in the oil & gas exploration

business;

2. In December 2014 the announcement came “Market forces force us to

layoff jobs”. SBM fired 1.200 from their 10.000 people workforce;

3. The CEO stated: “We anticipate on the developments in the oil & gas

sector”;

4. Key fact: In Fall 2013, the market became under severe pressure because

of several di-vestments of the “Big Oil Sisters” Shell, BP, Total, Exxon Mobil

and Conoco Phillips;

5. It has not been a matter of “anticipation” on future changes, however it has

been a “reaction” on changes which occurred more than 12 months ago.

December 2014

“Do we believe that you can do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and be in

business tomorrow?”


Case Banking

“The new millennials do not have much faith in banks and are open to new

entrants”

1. Basis is research amongst 48.000 people, in 20 countries representing 75% of the

world economy;

2. Millennials are people born 1980-1995;

3. Only 27% of millennials trust banks;

4. 49% of the millennials hope to get an alternative for a bank.

• Are banks able to meet the “millennial mindset?”

• New entrants will be companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, Pay-Pal, Facebook;

• Why? Millennials want their products personal, mobile, innovative and cheap

December 2014

“Banks must wake-up, leave traditional banking and create disruptive innovation”

“The travel business, music sector, hotel sector, taxi sector: They never saw it coming?”


Ton Büchner is the successor of CEO Hans Wijers in 2012

Assignment for the new CEO:

Board of directors: “Continue the perfect work of Hans Wijers”

However Facts are:

Profitability under severe pressure

Bank loans were necessary to satisfy investors

Hundreds of millions floated away to acquired UK-based ICI

Underperformance compared to competition

Board of directors, board of management and the own organization trivialized

the situation completely.

AkzoNobel and the wrong Perspectives


AkzoNobel and the wrong Perspectives

In 2012 the situation at AkzoNobel was “five-to-twelve”

The board of directors had no idea: Vuursteen/Heineken,

Burgmans/Unilever, Van Waayen/Alcatel-Lucent, Van Den

Brink/ABNAmro

In 2016 dividend again from own resources

2012-2015 : share price doubled

Competition is back as Target for Outperformance

The board of directors were exponents from the Old Boys Network: no

content, incestuous, not critical at friends at all

The Countervailing Power was completely missing


Macintosch and How to Destroy a Company

Facts:

Dolcis, Invito, Manfield, Halfords, BelCompany: Total Sales € 1 billion / market

value € 720 million 2007-2008

CEO is Belgian Frank de Moor from 2003-2014

CEO is Award Winner of “the most successful manager abroad” by Belgian

business magazine Trends in 2008

Acquisition of Brantano and Jones Bootmaker in 2008/2011 at € 200 million

Sale of Brantano in 2015 at € 17 million

Stock price in 2016 under € 1,00 versus € 33,00 at the top in 2007-2008

What happened?

Source: FD/February 2016



The wrong strategic choices and maintaining too long with those strategies

Answers on Critical Questions of the decreasing revenues by the CEO:

1. Poor results – it’s because of the winter and the whole market is under

pressure

2. Outlets are boring – he doesn’t recognize this and research confirms

customers like the outlets

3. More vertical integration such as competitor Deichmann – They don’t publish

any data so nobody knows

4. Didn’t we pay too much for Brantano and Jones Bootmaker – The accountant

has no reason to write off goodwill

5. What about the decreasing stock price – I don’t speak about stock prices since

12 years

6. What share of sales counts for online – CEO never answered this question

Answers are always “poisoned”. Am I so smart or are you that

stupid?




Shareholders insisted to speak with Docdata, the IT-specialist of Zalando

Docdata offered the CEO to successfully establish the online business in 2012

CEO: customer will come to our outlets which is the best way to fit shoes

To get more focus: sale of BelCompany (2009) and Halfords (2013)

Pressure of shareholders Delta Lloyd, Teslin, Kempen & Co, Jaap Blokker, Jan

Zeeman to hire a consultancy for a new strategy and structure (finally in 2014)

The action of the shareholders should have been a wake-up call

for the Board of Directors




Board of Directors: Wout Dekker (Chairman BoD Rabo bank), Adriaan Nühn (Sara

Lee, Sligro), Jaap Lagerweij (Hema), Henk van Dalen (DSM, TNT)

“God Almighty, Why did the Board of Directors let this happen?”

The shareholders have asked to hire a consultancy and not the BoD?

The distance between CEO and BoD has been huge

The Board of Directors lacked the knowledge of the fast changing retail landscape

The Board of Directors lacked the capabilities to counteract the CEO

Neither the CEO or the Board of Directors got any countervailing

power at all

The Board of Directors can be fully blamed for this

disaster at Macintosh



Case MH17

“I didn’t have the information that other airlines behave differently. The flight route

was declared safe. The image was that you would be safe at 10 kilometers, however

it’s apparently not because of these advanced missile systems”

by Camiel Eurlings, former CEO of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines” Facts:

The American Aviation Authority warns on April 3 2014 for not flying over the Ukraine. The information

was visible for all airlines;

June 30 2014 NATO warns at a press conference that the Russians are training the “separatists” in

the usage of advanced missile systems reaching heights of 25 kilometers;

Data from UK-based “Flight Radar” shows that British Airways avoids to fly over the areas of Crimea

and Ukraine. Early July 2014 the British warn again for the risks of flying over parts of Ukraine;

The International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO, IATA and Euro Control didn’t give signals of risks

about Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities and Euro Control approved the flight plan of MH17;

Information on Security is at the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and AIVD, the Dutch Central

Intelligence Service. However, the AIVD only informs airlines from their own investigations in case it’s

relevant for the airline sector;

Georgian, British, Delta, Iran, SriLankan, Vietnam and Russian UTair airlines didn’t fly over East-

Ukraine. Passengers of UTair have asked the airline to avoid East-Ukraine.

August 2014


Content











Strategic Intelligence (SI) enables Countervailing

Power

1. SI gives maximum Insights & Foresights in our VUCA-World

2. SI core activities are: future-based Perspectives + Impact beyond Facts +

Courses of Action

3. SI acts at the top of the Intelligence Continuum

4. SI delivers Actionable Intelligence that cannot be IGNORED


Intelligence Continuum

Strategic Intelligence

Competitive Intelligence

Industry & Competitive

Analysis

Competitive Data Collection

Narrow Focus Broad Focus

Tactical

Highly Strategic On topics of strategic significance, strategic crisis,

grey swans, competitive arena’s and beyond

Orientation: Strategic

Focus on broad understanding of competitors,

customers, technology & industry dynamics

Orientation: Tactical / Strategic

Focus on understanding traditional & BU-specific

competitors

Orientation: Tactical

Focus on collecting competitor & channel

information

Orientation: Tactical


Don’t be naïve to rely on Google

© w w w .brandpow der.com


The Real Google - Alphabet

BUSH

FACA HOMELAND SECURITY

DIA

USA

NSA

DICK CHENEY

IW

CLINTON

AUSTRALIA

SERGEY BRIN

MDDS

CIA

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

PAUL WOLFOWITZ

STANFORT UNIVERSITY

SAIC

ONA

DONALD RUMSFELD

INSCOM

DoD

DARPA

Insurge Intelligence

OBAMA

BASIS IN 1994

STARTING AT CIA AND NSA PENTAGON

SINGAPORE

HIGHLANDS FORUM

ONR

LARRY PAGE

NDU

IN-Q-TEL

KEYHOLE NGA

DNI

NSF

Source: How the CIA made Google – Dr. Nafeez Ahmed


Beyond Google ………………….

Information beyond Google news

Only coverage of the most important newspapers, not the smaller news sources,

industry specific news sources, company news pages etc.

It doesn’t include social media like Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and many others

It doesn’t include web forums

It doesn’t cover paid sources (commercial online databases)

Google news index is different from Bing news index, both are different from other

news engines

Google search mixes everything: old documents, news and other, which makes it

very difficult to differentiate what’s relevant from what’s not.

No doubt, Google is an important source of information

Finding much information on Google doesn’t mean you will find the strategic

information which will make the difference with your competitors who ALL rely

on Google.


Different Types of Information Sources beyond Google

Source: Digimind


Key Predictive Indicators (KPIs) as Early Indicators of

Change

Early December 2015 we broadcasted on the potential downturn of China

………………

1. The Baltic Dry Index showed record lows

2. Since September 2015 the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index: strong downfall

3. The China Commodity Export Index(aluminum, steel, oil showed dramatic downturn

4. Imports down because of reduced spending by local governments

5. Central government withdrew in summer 2015 its guarantees for Local Government

Financing

6. Chinese steel mills under pressure by losses, low prices and overcapacity as

demand Drops to levels unseen since 2009

“The demand of lobster is the real time indicator of the Chinese

economy. We did see it faster than the Chines Stock exchange. We are

the canary in the coalmine”

Stephanie Nadeau of the Lobster Co in Maine USA


Skyscraper Index

“There is a positive correlation between the opening of the highest

skyscrapers and an upcoming financial crisis”

Empire State Building in 1931 and the Great Depression

End of the 1990s: Petronas Towers and the Asia Crisis

Burj Khalifa in 2015 and the Dubai Crisis in 2013-2014

China Crisis in 2015 and the opening of the Shanghai Tower in 2017

WHY? In prosperous times our confidence in the future grows and

entrepreneurial faith takes-off. Investments grow and governments start big

projects to show economic power.

Same happens when companies build new headquarters


Source: Shell – Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

Data

Information

Knowledge

Intelligence

Actionable intelligence

Feedback

Action

Decis

ion

Bring order and structure

Understanding why / what has happened

Predicting why / what will happen

Intelligence based action options

Listen

Competitive Intelligence at Shell – Strategic Intent


1. CI is a staff/line responsibility

2. CI supports decisive action

3. CI covers the entire competitive environment

4. CI is not about the past, but the future

5. CI is not found on internet, not in a database but is created by

people

6. CI is about the brutal truth

7. CI is done legally and ethically

Source:SIEP/RT&A

The 7 Guiding Principles of CI The 7 Guiding Principles of CI


Forecasts at the Dutch Housing Market

We think to understand everything if we analyze from SINGLE sources

Analysts in the financial world make forecasts even more worse than coincidence

In the Netherlands we have a unique housing market because mortgages are tax

deductible:

National International

- Dutch National Bank - IMF

- Central Planning Bureau - OECD

- Society of Real Estate Agents(NVM) - European Commission

- Society of House Owners(VEH) - Standard & Poor’s

- Land Register(Kadaster) - World Bank

- Dutch Banks(ING, ABNAmro, Rabo) - ECB

- Universities/NGOs - Universities/NGOs

“Can people rely on forecasts or is it just wish full thinking?

“We don’t do weather forecasts, we do weather expectations”

by Dutch KNMI


Forecasts of the Economic Crisis in the Netherlands

January 2009 : Dutch Government – Crisis? Is there a Crisis …………..?

October 2009 : Research of Multiscope – 78% of decision makers: Crisis is over in

2010

October 2009 : ING Bank – The Netherlands is out of recession

December 2010 : Standard & Poor’s – Increase of Creditworthiness > MEDIA:

Crisis is Over

January 2011 : Rabo Bank – We hardly face a crisis, we have the highest pension

assets and an excellent export performance

June 2012 : Central Bureau of Statistics – Technically we are out of recession

August 2012 : CEO of ING – People are fed-up of negativity. We are recovering!

October 2013 : CEO Dutch Central Bank – Crisis is Over ( Based on “anecdotal

evidence”)

Spring 2014 : We still do not know yet. May be …

Fall 2014 : The Triple Dip since 2008 ……. Debts at Governments and banks

“Don’t be naïve and do not rely on forecasts”


Scenario Planning

Potential

Future

Potential

Future

Potential

Future Future

selection

Mid

Term

Future

Future

selection

Short

Term

Future

Future

selection

Now 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Phase 1 Identification

Phase 2 Trend analysis

Phase 3 Scenario planning

Phase 4 Back casting

Phase 5 Strategic road mapping

2016

2020

2025


Why Scenario Planning?

• Success in the future depends not just on the study of the future but on

the future success of decisions taken today.

• In business it is very difficult but also absolutely essential to make valid

assumptions about the future.

• Prepared decision makers can anticipate the development of situations

ahead of competitors.

• Scenario Planning processes help to prepare decision makers. They may

still be surprised by events, but should never be taken by surprise.

Source: Shell/SCIP 11/2005


Scenarios ask the right questions

The only relevant questions about the future are those where we

succeed from shifting the question from whether something will

happen to “What would we do if it did happen”

Source: Shell/RT&A


Strategic War Mapping

(4) Bypass attack

Attacker

(2) Flanking Attack

(1) Frontal attack

(5) Guerrilla

warfare

Defender

(3) Encirclement attack


Why Strategic War Mapping?

Contribution to the company’s success by preparing management to deal more effectively with its competitors, markets and other emerging factors.

Strategic War Mapping is the adoption of military war gaming to the business environment and business dynamics.

It helps management with strategic, tactical and operational planning as well execution

It educates participants about the future realities of the company’s business environment

It helps to avoid the danger of extrapolation past success into the future.


Motorola Apple

Huawei

LG

Nokia -

Microsof

t

Samsung

The Competitive arena


THREE STRATEGIC POSTURES

Shape the future Adapt to the future Reserve the right to play

Source: Partly adapted from McKinsey/HBR1997


Levels of Uncertainty

A Clear-Enough Future

Alternate Futures • A few discrete outcomes that define the future

• Decision analysis

• Option valuation models

• Game theory

• Competitive Intelligence

• Long-distance telephone carriers’

strategy to enter deregulated local-

service market: telecom in US, EU

• Capacity strategies for chemical plants

• A single forecast precise enough for

determing strategy

• “Traditional” strategy tool kit

• Strategy against low-cost airline

entrant: EasyJet, SoutWest Airlines,

Virgin

What Can

Be Known?

Analytic

Tools

Examples

1

2

3

I II

Source: Adapted from McKinsey/HBR1997


Levels of Uncertainty

True Ambiguity

• No basis to forecast the future

• Analogies and pattern recognition

• Nonlinear dynamic models

• Basic marketresearch

• Entering the market for consumer multi-

media applications

• Entering the Russian market in 1992

• Entering emerging markets, such as

India, China

• E-business in EP, e-enabled homes,

PC/TV/Tel

III IV

What Can

Be Known?

Analytic

Tools

Examples

• A range of possible outcomes, but no

natural scenarios

• Latent-demand research

• Technology forecasting

• Scenario planning

• Competitive Intelligence

• Competitive Technology Intelligence

A Range of Futures

?

Source: Adapted from McKinsey/HBR1997


Societe Anonyme Belge d’Exploitation de la Navigation Aerienne

Case Example National Airline in Europe


SABENA

Sabena had a limited connected network

Flexible Labor contracts Technical Staff vs Fixed Labor contracts Finance

& Administration

Finance & Administration were the real bureaucrats

Corruption at the Board, Senior Management, Purchasing, all strongly

related to Politics

Belgian governments didn’t have any idea what was going on – for

decades

Sabena was as Iberia, TAP, Alitalia and Olympic Airways

Merger with KLM (too rational), Air France (also Sabena diseases),

Swissair (cooperation driven by fear)

Belgians didn’t know Swissair was already “terminal”

“Such A Bloody Experience Never Again” former stewardess


SABENA

Sabena : no pro-active management style – no long term vision

Belgian government saw Sabena as a financial operation (no profitability

for decades)

Corporate culture was heavily bureaucratic and Sabena couldn’t run into

bankruptcy

Belgian government forces the management to succeed with Swissair

Swissair cheated Sabena from day one – Sabena was easy to be cheated

Investment of 34 new Airbuses – They lacked the financial resources

September 2001: Swissair can’t meet her financial agreements – Sabena

run into bankruptcy October 2001

Swissair into bankruptcy in 2002 – “Grounding”, most viewed movie in CH

Not any Member of the Board and Nobody of the top-200 Senior

Management showed any mea culpa

At Sabena 55.000 people lost their job


Are there similarities with Air France – KLM ?

Since 2008 not profitable

In 2015 “Window dressing with Profitability”

Year 2015 : Total Revenues € 26 billion – Total Profit € 118 million

Year 2015 : Cost savings low energy € 450KK, sale of slots at Heathrow €

230KK, sale of shares Amadeus € 218KK

Year 2016 : Sale of Servair € 300KK?, sales of slots Heathrow + sale of

the rest of shares Amadeus € 250-300KK?

KLM’s subsidiairy Martinair has stopped passengers flights in 2011

Transavia (55) has to compete with EasyJet (220) and Ryan Air (350)



Board of Management : 14 members of which 3 Dutch (11 French)

Board of Directors : 15 members of 3 Dutch (12 French)

CEO = Chairman of the Board of Directors (Alexandre de Juniac)

Dutch State owns 5,9% of KLM – French State owns 17,6% of Air France

– KLM (27% voting rights)

Net debt of the Group : € 4,3 billion

Market value of the Group € 2,4 billion (300 million shares at € 8,00 share

price)

In 2004 Air France acquired KLM at € 740 million



1. The Group lacks the ability to compete: US-airlines, Lufthansa, BA, Middle

East airlines

2. Transavia competes with EasyJet, Ryan Air, Air Berlin, Vueling, Wizzair,

Norwegian

3. Culture and the bureaucrats will block future perspectives to improve

4. The next years more “silverware” will be sold

1. KLM – Transavia must separate from Air France soonest before the market

will force them to do so.

2. Dutch Government must get back control and secure the position

of Amsterdam Airport


Content











The Rise of Big Data

The more data you research, the more patterns you discover which are

purely a coincidence

In addition, these patterns will not repeat themselves

People who love big data are not scientists, however have an interest to

gain something

Computer-power enabled us to create the “buzz world of big data”. We

always have done predictive analysis.

The idea is “bullshit”, forget Big Data

“Nassim Taleb“

“Big data is like teenage sex. Everyone talks about is, nobody really knows

how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims

they are doing it”


The Tables of Power of Big Ego’s

Photo right: Jacqueline Hassink / Tables of Power 2

Source: Volkskrant December 1 2011


We think you need something new

© copyright: Rodenberg Tillman & Associates

“Companies need different management systems for core business and for new opportunities. Industry analysis is part of the core business, arena analysis is part of

new opportunities”

“If you are competing in arenas, you need information systems that give you a line of sight into what’s going on in those arenas and management need to be able

to move resources quickly”

professor


War Rooms / Company Radar Rooms


Can you imagine a Radar Room in your company?

Obama - 2009 Bush - 2007 Renovation - 2006

Bush - 2006 Situat ion Room 2013 - 2015 Clinton - 2000

Clinton - 1994 Reagan - 1982 Johnson - 1966

Source: The White House


Churchill’s Map Room as the centre of the War Room

In 1940 Churchill was 65 years old

War Room exists of: The Cabinet War Rooms(CWR), The War Council,

Joint Planning Committee(JPC), The Strategic Planning Staff(STRATS),

The Executive Planning Staff(EPS) and The Future Operational

Staff(FOPS)

War Rooms gave the input to the Map Room (only 46 people had access)

Map Room 24/7: 9 plotters, 2 clerks, 3-6 senior members of the JPC

Churchill habits was labelling urgent messages for “Action This Day”

Map Room was the heart of the CWRs and the “scoreboard of the war”

“Boniface” later changed into “Ultra” was the team of brilliant bad guys

“This is the room from which I shall direct the war”


War Room at Ford Motor Company

2006 the start of Alan Mulally as CEO at Ford, former CEO of Boeing

2008: $ 14.7 billion loss and in 2009 $ 2.7 billion profit (no support from

the Obama Administration)

How? Of course cost savings, better sales prices, less debts and

improved quality and designed cars

What has been different in his strategy? A War Room of which initially his

fellow board members were not aware

His War Room became a Mapping Room: four walls with graphs and

diagrams in the codes RED-ORANGE-GREEN

Mulally’s way making visible Ford’s Global Battlefield

“Greatness is not a function of circumstance. Greatness is largely a

matter of conscious choice and discipline” by Jim Collins


Company Radar Room or War Rooms at Cisco

You compete every day. WHY do you win? WHY do you lose? HOW do

you know? WHAT if you could capture the front-line intelligence from

those who do see competition every day?

Customers, Sales Team and Peers

WHAT if you could use that intelligence to win deals, to capture revenues

and to gain market share?

Cisco uses Competitive War Rooms to do just that

Cisco’s small highly-leveraged team has grown to support over US$ 100

million in wins, per person, per year

Part sales, part product, part analysis and beyond: each War Room

manager executes a repeatable process that support wins, secures

intelligence, influences design and captures market share

“We understand the market, our competitors and most importantly how our competitors think. We have a pretty good idea what their next moves will be.

When you compete against us, you will lose”

by John Chambers, CEO of Cisco

Source: SCIP USA/May 2013 and USA Today/January 2013


Russia surpasses US with Putin’s new, three-tiered, multi-

billion, National Control Defense Center

Source: Sputnik, RT, FoxTrotAlpha and WaPo


It has been designed to satisfy Russia's defense needs for at least 20 years,

synchronizing the decision making process of the military command and the

Russians. The facility has a helicopter pad for Russia's Mi-8 transport

choppers and is the country's premier communications center in case of war.

“..The data centers calculating capacity exceeds the Pentagon system’s

capacity threefold, and the data storage volume is 19 times higher..”

YOU STILL THINK YOU CAN DO BUSINESS WITHOUT A CENTRAL

RADAR ROOM?





Content










“Big Ego’s and Countervailing Power”

Documents

Transcript of “Big Ego’s and Countervailing Power”