Big Data Transforming Elections in the United States

By: Dr. Michael O. Adams& Subria Lapps

CHANGES IN TRADITIONAL MEDIARadio, Newspapers, and Television as a thing of the past…

Traditional Media Outlets

• African-American Radio• African-American Newspapers• Direct Mail• Television Ads

DIRECT VOTER CONTACT

• Preachers• Judges• Neighborhood Civic Organizations• Social Clubs

New Media

• Social Networks (Twitter, Facebook, Google Circle, LinkedIn)

• Data Sharing (Photo, Video, etc…)• Wikis• Blogs• Podcasts

DEMOGRAPHICS & THE URBAN EXODUSWhat are African-American Candidates Up Against in Houston

CITY OF HOUSTON BLACK EXODUS TO SUBURBIA

• Missouri City• Pearland• Sugarland

• Counties bordering major urban centers experienced extreme growth from 2005 to 2006 & from 2009-2010 during the housing crisis this growth was cut in half

• Cities and densely populated suburbs grew significantly during the late 2000s

Harris County & Fort Bend County Population Growth 2000-2010

Harris County Fort Bend County

2000 3400578 354452

2010 4092459 585375

250,000750,000

1,250,0001,750,0002,250,0002,750,0003,250,0003,750,0004,250,000Po

pula

tion

Source: U.S Census Quick Facts

Population Change

White Black Hispanic

4

24

42

Harris County Population Change 2000-2010

Harris County

White Black Hispanic

47

79 86

Fort Bend County Popula-tion (%) Change 2000-

2010

Fort Bend County

Source: Census Viewer

HOUSTON MAYORAL ELECTIONS

• Mayor Lee Brown (Houston’s 1st African-American Mayor was elected in 1997, 1999 and in 2001

• 2001 was the last election before African-American voter participation in Houston elections witnessed a consistent decline

• Elections w/ Black Candidates 2003 Bill White (v. Sylvester Turner) and 2009 Annise Parker (v. Gene Locke)

What is Happening?

• The turnout model has changed and the old outlets and institutions have weakened

WHERE DOES BIG DATA COME IN?Social Media Engagement and Tracking as a Strategic Core

BIG DATA

• Alistair Croll of O’Reilly Radar:– "After Eisenhower, you couldn't win an election

without radio. After JFK, you couldn't win an election without television. After Obama, you couldn't win an election without social networking. I predict that in 2012, you won't be able to win an election without big data."

BIG DATA…WHAT IS IT?

Large data sets that include but not limited to:• Consumer history• Financial history• Call centers• Point-of-sale• Social networks• Web Traffic/Patterns

DATA MINING IN ELECTIONS

• Specific algorithms are designed to analyze collected data on voters to predict – election outcomes– advertising tactics to promote voter support and

participation (online, door-to-door, phone, mail)• Looking at voters as distinct individuals and by

default as part of a larger group• PERSONALIZED PROFILES=PERSONALIZED

MESSAGES• TAKING RAW DATA AND MAKING IT MAKE SENSE

2012 Elections, President Obama & Big Data

• Targeted Messaging (online/text)• Volunteer App• Combining Traditional Phone Interviews w/

New Data Forms to develop algorithms

WHAT MATTERS MOST…

Social Media has the power to propel any issue into the spotlight…

Source: Netapp “Big data and the Election?”

AFRICAN AMERICANS & SOCIAL MEDIA

• African Americans use twitter more than any other demographic group

Source: FacMarlow, Cameron. (December 16, 2009). How Diverse Is Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=205925658858

RUNNING A DATA DRIVEN CAMPAIGN

• Linking everything and mind the data• In the past, they needed cellphone and email

addresses. – NOW they have de-emphasized the traditional poll and

realized the increased mobility of younger tech savvy generations

• T/V ads are broad and most of the population does not want commercials– Hard telephone lines are basically dead – People under the age of 35 do not have hard lines...

CHALLENGES1. African-American churches/ civic organizations are loosing

and will eventually loose their base as communities build stronger ties in newly migrated suburbs

2. African-American candidates are disconnected from the diversity that exists across younger Black voters, first time voters, and undecided voters

3. Running a conventional style campaign cannot survive demographic changes and a transforming technological landscape that has reshaped advertising

4. Institutions of African-American radio and readership of black newspapers are not as strong as they once were

LOOKING AHEAD1. African-American churches, civic organizations, radio, and

newspapers are critical to the Black Communities across Houston 2. These institutions have to begin appealing to younger

generations, current younger voters, and swing voters across racial and socio-economic lines (What do youth of the post-Civil Rights era value?) Gen-X/Gen Y etc…

3. African-American candidates have to aggressively engage social media platforms to reach potential voters

4. African-American candidates have to reform their platforms by taking an issue based approach as oppose to a race based one

5. Focus on coalition building with Latinos/Hispanics as Blacks and Hispanics (they are the least segregated groups in Houston and surrounding cities/counties)

BIG DATA CONCERNS• Big data also includes the sometimes unethical

gathering and merging of personal information • Major invasion of privacy without explicit permission• Selling data on preferences (i.e behaviors survey

houses, businesses, even universities.• Software that codifies internet

comments/tweets/activities into a psychological/emotional/political profile

BibliographyArthur, L. “What Is Big Data”. (August 15, 2013). Retrieved from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/lisaarthur/

2013/08/15/what-is-big-data/

Dannenbaum, K. (August 8, 2012). “What Does Big Data Mean for This Election?”. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keya-dannenbaum/post_2941_b_1263802.html

Frey, H. W. (2012). Metro America since 1980: Putting the Volatile 2000s in Perspective. Brookings Institute. Retrieved from: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/3/20%20population%20frey/0320_population_frey.pdf

King, Bill. (March 9, 2013). Houston Chronicle http://www.chron.com/default/article/Decline-in-voter-turnout-may-be-handicap-to-Hall-4342798.php

Issenberg, S. (December 19, 2012). “How President Obama’s campaign used big data to rally individual voters.” Retrieved from: http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big- data-to-rally-voters/

Leah, C. Scott, K., Purcell, K. et al Smith, A. (2010). Assessing the Cell Phone Challenge. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from: http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/05/20/assessing-the-cell-phone-challenge/

Marlow, Cameron. (December 16, 2009). How Diverse Is Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=205925658858

Szkolar, D. (January 24, 2013). Data Mining in Obama’s 2012 Victory. Syracuse University. Retrieved from: http://infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/