Bid Rounds taking place in 2016 – How attractive …Norway Ukraine Angola Bolivia China India...

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With Oil prices halved many oil companies have stopped exploration, however governments across the globe are still planning licensing rounds in 2016 and beyond. Will we see fiscal and policy terms changed to attract those companies with a greater appetite for risk and the ability to withstand a prolonged downturn. Face a lower pool of investors, as cuts in IOC capital spending will force companies to prioritize investments, and eschew higher-risk and/or lower-return projects. However, there are still companies out there with a greater appetite for risk and an ability to withstand a prolonged downturn. It is key for governments to be aware of what other investment opportunities are out there and how these opportunities compare, so they can design effective strategies to attract investment to the sector. in the Low Oil Price Environment GOVERNMENTS LOOKING TO ATTRACT FRESH E&P INVESTMENT in the current price scenario... Improved Terms Argentina Colombia Ghana Kazakhstan Norway Ukraine Angola Bolivia China India Mexico UK Alberta Ecuador Pakistan Venezuela US-North Dakota Brazil Iran Peru Malaysia Iraq Nigeria Indonesia Egypt Ireland Uzbekistan Cameroon Russia Uganda Alaska Newfoundland & Labrador US Federal Potential Improvement Mixed Measures Potential Mixed Measures Tightening of Terms Potential Tightening of Terms Not all bid rounds offer the same level of risk vs potential rewards; let’s look at how some of these opportunities compare Countries with good E&P prospects but tough fiscal terms: IHS PEPS enables rapid understanding of the complete upstream investment and risk environment for all hydrocarbon-producing and frontier countries worldwide. TRENDS IN FISCAL TERMS Congo (1 opportunity) Norway (1 opportunity) Russia (2 opportunities) China (1 opportunity) Malaysia (1 opportunity) Pakistan (1 opportunity) Iran (2 opportunities) India (2 opportunities) Thailand (1 opportunity) Australia (2 opportunities) New Zealand (1 opportunity) Poland (1 opportunity) Cyprus (1 opportunity) Lebanon (1 opportunity) Israel (1 opportunity) Iraq (1 opportunity) Indonesia (3 opportunities) Offshore acreage Onshore acreage On & Offshore acreage Tentative Round 1 IRAN 2 IRAQ 3 RUSSIA 1 URUGUAY 2 LEBANON REWARD RISK & E&P INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A LOW PRICE WORLD Bid Rounds taking place in 2016 – How attractive are they? $50 BARREL OIL The Implications of 2014 2016 $50 $100 2016 IHS. All rights reserved. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS. 2043-GC-0516 For more information www.ihs.com/PEPS PEPS Team [email protected] INVESTOR ATTRACTIVENESS Low Medium High 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INVESTOR ATTRACTIVENESS Low Medium High 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Countries with limited exploration data available but regarded as “high potential” by the industry: Mexico (1 opportunity) Mexico (2 opportunities) Uruguay (1 opportunity) Canada (3 opportunities) Overall Rating 6.27 E&P Rating 8.80 Fiscal Rating 3.00 Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 5.45 5-Year Forecast - PSR 5.70 Overall Rating 5.36 E&P Rating 8.33 Fiscal Rating 2.07 Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 3.18 5-Year Forecast - PSR 3.63 Overall Rating 5.15 E&P Rating 6.73 Fiscal Rating 2.82 Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 5.43 5-Year Forecast - PSR 5.62 Overall Rating 3.58 E&P Rating 1.03 Fiscal Rating 5.32 Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 8.00 5-Year Forecast - PSR 7.91 Overall Rating 3.03 E&P Rating 1.00 Fiscal Rating 5.13 Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 4.89 5-Year Forecast - PSR 4.86

Transcript of Bid Rounds taking place in 2016 – How attractive …Norway Ukraine Angola Bolivia China India...

Page 1: Bid Rounds taking place in 2016 – How attractive …Norway Ukraine Angola Bolivia China India Mexico UK Alberta Ecuador Pakistan Venezuela US-North Dakota Brazil Iran Peru Malaysia

With Oil prices halved many oil companies have stopped exploration, however

governments across the globe are still planning licensing rounds in 2016 and beyond.

Will we see fiscal and policy terms changed to attract those companies with a greater

appetite for risk and the ability to withstand a prolonged downturn.

Face a lower pool of investors, as cuts in IOC capital spending will force companies to prioritize investments, and eschew higher-risk and/or lower-return projects.

However, there are still companies out there with a greater appetite for risk and an ability to withstand a prolonged downturn.

It is key for governments to be aware of what other investment opportunities are out there and how these opportunities compare, so they can design e�ective strategies to attract investment to the sector.

in the Low Oil Price Environment

GOVERNMENTS LOOKING TO ATTRACT FRESH E&P INVESTMENT in the current price scenario...

Improved Terms

ArgentinaColombiaGhanaKazakhstanNorwayUkraineAngolaBoliviaChinaIndiaMexicoUK

AlbertaEcuadorPakistanVenezuelaUS-North DakotaBrazilIranPeru

Malaysia IraqNigeriaIndonesia

EgyptIrelandUzbekistanCameroonRussiaUganda

AlaskaNewfoundland & LabradorUS Federal

Potential Improvement Mixed Measures

Potential Mixed Measures Tightening of Terms

Potential Tightening of Terms

Not all bid rounds o�er the same level of risk vs potential rewards; let’s look at how some of these opportunities compare

Countries with good E&P prospects but tough fiscal terms:

IHS PEPS enables rapid understanding of the complete upstream investment and risk environment for all hydrocarbon-producing and frontier countries worldwide.

TRENDS IN FISCAL TERMS

Congo (1 opportunity)

Norway (1 opportunity)Russia (2 opportunities)

China (1 opportunity)

Malaysia (1 opportunity)

Pakistan (1 opportunity)

Iran (2 opportunities)

India (2 opportunities)

Thailand (1 opportunity)

Australia (2 opportunities)

New Zealand (1 opportunity)

Poland (1 opportunity)

Cyprus (1 opportunity)

Lebanon (1 opportunity)

Israel (1 opportunity)

Iraq (1 opportunity)

Indonesia (3 opportunities)

O�shore acreageOnshore acreageOn & O�shore acreageTentative Round

1IRAN 2IRAQ 3RUSSIA

1URUGUAY 2LEBANON

REWARDRISK&

E&P INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A LOW PRICE WORLD Bid Rounds taking place in 2016 – How attractive are they?

$50BARREL OIL

The Implications of

2014 2016

$50

$100

2016 IHS. All rights reserved. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.

2043-GC-0516

For more informationwww.ihs.com/PEPS

PEPS Team

[email protected]

INVESTOR ATTRACTIVENESS

Low Medium High

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

INVESTOR ATTRACTIVENESS

Low Medium High

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Countries with limited exploration data available but regarded as “high potential” by the industry:

Mexico (1 opportunity)

Mexico (2 opportunities)

Uruguay (1 opportunity)

Canada (3 opportunities)

Overall Rating 6.27

E&P Rating 8.80Fiscal Rating 3.00Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 5.455-Year Forecast - PSR 5.70

Overall Rating 5.36

E&P Rating 8.33Fiscal Rating 2.07Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 3.185-Year Forecast - PSR 3.63

Overall Rating 5.15

E&P Rating 6.73Fiscal Rating 2.82Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 5.435-Year Forecast - PSR 5.62

Overall Rating 3.58

E&P Rating 1.03Fiscal Rating 5.32Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 8.005-Year Forecast - PSR 7.91

Overall Rating 3.03

E&P Rating 1.00Fiscal Rating 5.13Petroleum Sector Risk Rating (PSR) 4.895-Year Forecast - PSR 4.86