BIA/Kelsey Webinar January 2011 - Momentus Change Ahead for...

Momentous Change Ahead for

Local Media in 2011

Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2011

Welcome to today’s webinar. We will start soon.

For Audio: You can either dial in or listen through your speakers.

Once you choose, please do not change settings.

2

Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.

Agenda

• Setting the Context for 2011 and Beyond

– Bobbi Loy-Luster

– Mark Fratrik

• Analyst Roundtable and Discussion

– Moderator, Bobbi Loy-Luster

• Broadcast Media

• Directional Media

• Interactive Media

• Vertical Media

• Mobile Media

• Social Media

• Gearing Up for 2011

– All

• Q & A

3


Analyst Roundtable Discussion

Mark FratrikVP, Research

Rick DuceyChief Strategy Officer and PD

Broadcast Local Media

Matt BoothSenior VP and PD

Interactive Local Media

Charles LaughlinSenior VP and PD

The Kelsey Report®

Directional Local MediaPeter Krasilovsky

VP and PD

Vertical Local Media

Michael BolandSenior Analyst and PD

Mobile Local Media

Moderator

Bobbi Loy-LusterVP – Client Services

Jed WilliamsAnalyst and PD

Social Local Media

4


Local Media Landscape in 2011 Bobbi Loy-Luster

Setting the context for

success in 2011:

1. Local

2. Mobile

3. Social

Local

Mobile

Social

Value

5


Key Drivers in 2011

Where

• 54% of males are willing to share their location.

Now

• Google searches from mobile devices grew 130% year over year.

Share

• Facebook is the third-largest country in the world.

6


The Economic Environment

– Continued growth in 2010 though with little improvement in

unemployment• Businesses hesitant to expand

• Consumers hesitant to spend

• Advertisers apprehensive?

– Some signs of consumer spending increases in fourth quarter

with some hope for advertising increasing

– Strong year for political advertising — especially for local

television stations

– Expectations for 2011:

• Continued growth with limited relief in unemployment

• Consumers becoming more confident and spending more

• Advertisers increasing their spending slowly over the next few years

– Movement of spending from some traditional media (e.g.,

newspapers) to interactive/digital media

Mark Fratrik

7


The Economic Environment

-6.4

-0.7

3.5

5.7

3.2

1.62.0

2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2

(8.0)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Gro

wth

Ra

te

2009

Actuals

Forecasts

2010 2011

Quarterly Real GDP Growth

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting

8


The BIA/Kelsey Media Indices

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1/4

/2010

1/8

/2010

1/1

4/2

010

1/2

1/2

010

1/2

7/2

010

2/2

/2010

2/8

/2010

2/1

2/2

010

2/1

9/2

010

2/2

5/2

010

3/3

/2010

3/9

/2010

3/1

5/2

010

3/1

9/2

010

3/2

5/2

010

3/3

1/2

010

4/7

/2010

4/1

3/2

010

4/1

9/2

010

4/2

3/2

010

4/2

9/2

010

5/5

/2010

5/1

1/2

010

5/1

7/2

010

5/2

1/2

010

5/2

7/2

010

6/3

/2010

6/9

/2010

6/1

5/2

010

6/2

1/2

010

6/2

5/2

010

7/1

/2010

7/8

/2010

7/1

4/2

010

7/2

0/2

010

7/2

6/2

010

7/3

0/2

010

8/5

/2010

8/1

1/2

010

8/1

7/2

010

8/2

3/2

010

8/2

7/2

010

9/2

/2010

9/9

/2010

9/1

5/2

010

9/2

1/2

010

9/2

7/2

010

10/1

/2010

10/7

/2010

10/1

3/2

010

10/1

9/2

010

10/2

5/2

010

10/2

9/2

010

11/4

/2010

11/1

0/2

010

11/1

6/2

010

11/2

2/2

010

11/2

9/2

010

12/3

/2010

12/9

/2010

12/1

5/2

010

12/2

1/2

010

12/2

8/2

010

BIA/Kelsey – Radio Market Cap Index

9



80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1/4/2010

2/2/2010

3/3/2010

3/31/2010

4/29/2010

5/27/2010

6/25/2010

7/26/2010

8/23/2010

9/21/2010

10/19/2010

11/16/2010

12/15/2010

BIA/Kelsey Local Media Stock Index

10



80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1/4/2010

2/2/2010

3/3/2010

3/31/2010

4/29/2010

5/27/2010

6/25/2010

7/26/2010

8/23/2010

9/21/2010

10/19/2010

11/16/2010

12/15/2010

BIA/Kelsey - Local Media Stock Index vs. S&P 500

S&P 500 BIA/Kelsey Local Media Index

11


• Mobile DTV

Arrives

• Cutting the Cord

on Cable

• Content

Regains the

Crown

• Mobile DTV Rolls Out

Nationally

• Cable Cord Cutters Pass

Along the Scissors

• HD Radio Finds Its

Groove

• Content Trumps

Technology

• The Internet Learns How

to Scale

Broadcast Media — 2011 Rick Ducey

12


Broadcast Media — 2011

Mobile DTV Arrives

13



Cutting the Cord on Cable

14



Content Regains the Crown

15


Directional Media — 2011

• Consolidation

• Revenues

Stabilize

• Publisher Focus

on Web Site

Opportunity

• Debt Drives Consolidation

• Debt Drives Divestment

• Directory Revenues

Stabilize

• YPG (CA) Makes a U.S.

Play

• Publisher Focus on Web

Site Opportunity

• Directory Pubs’ Deal-a-Day

Efforts Falter

Charles Laughlin

16



Consolidation

17



Revenues Stabilize

18


Digital Content

Web Site

SEM

Video

SEO

E-Mail/ Direct Mail

IYP

MobileReputation

Management

Print

Request for Quote

Landing Page

Fan Page


Publishers

Focus on

Web Site

Opportunity

19


Interactive Media — 2011

• Google Launches Direct Local

Sales Force

• U.S. Business Listings Become

Free, With Strings

• Social Messaging Takes Off

• Screening and Identity Companies

Make a Play in Local and Search

• Long-Tail Question-and-Answer

Content Grows in Importance

• IYP and Local Search Platforms

Get Squeezed From Two Sides

• Is It the Late ’90s All Over Again?

• A Bigger Audio Ad Network

Appears

• LinkedIn: the Sleeping Giant

• IYP and Local

Search Squeeze

• Listings Are Free

• Google Goes

Pavement

Matt Booth

20



IYP & Local Search Squeeze

21



Listings Are Free

22



Google Goes Pavement

23


• National Retail

Gets Into Group

Buying

• Retail SMBs

Track Online

Inventory

• Real Traction for

New Verticals

• Morphing of Group Buying &

General SMB Services

• National Retail Gets Involved in

Group Buying

• $25/month Key SMB Entry Point

• Widespread Use of Integrated

Online Shopping Portals

• Facebook Marketplaces a

Breakout Hit

• LBS Check-Ins Become Part of

Marketplaces Offering

• Retail SMBs Track Online

Inventory

• Real Traction for New Verticals

Vertical Media — 2011 Peter Krasilovsky

24


Vertical Media — 2011

Meets

25



Retail SMBs Track Online Inventory

26



Real Traction for New Verticals

27


• Apps vs. Mobile

Web

• Voice & Visual

Search

• Mobile

Shopping

• Mobile, by the Numbers

• Platform Wars Rage On

• Smartphones Dominate

• Apps vs. Mobile Web

• Check-Ins/LBS

• Mobile Shopping Lifts Off

• Mobile Discovery

• Voice & Visual Search

• Smaller & Better Ads

• Tab Forward

Mobile Media — 2011 Mike Boland

28


Mobile Media — 2011

Apps vs. Mobile Web

29



Image Credit: Google

Voice & Visual Search

30



Mobile Shopping

31


• SMBs Go Social

• Local Tweet

• Check-In for

Value

• SMB Social Adoption

Mainstreams

• Facebook’s Next Frontier:

Transactions

• Twitter Inches Forward

with Locals

• Shopping Gets (More)

Socialized

• Check-Ins Become Value

Exchanges

• SMBs Demand

Differentiation With ERPM

Social Media 2011 Jed Williams

32


Social Media — 2011

48%

SMBs Go Social

33



Local Tweet

34



Check In for Value

35


Getting Ready for 2011

What Why

Invest in new media initiatives More transformation in 2011 than in

previous three years; don’t be left

on the platform

Test, test, test Continuous testing drives product

design

All media is mobile Smartphone penetration continues

— Verizon gets the iPhone

Drive for bundles Bundles of solutions are better for

retention

Shift from traditional to digital will

continue

Transition continues — SMBs

shifted considerable dollars to

digital

36


Upcoming Event -

New Local Marketplaces: search, mobile, deals

On the agenda:• BIA/Kelsey’s Rundown on the Local Online and Mobile Economy

• The Financial/Venture View of ―Local‖

• Local Sales Leaders

• The Vertical Revolution

• Advertisers Talk!

• The Next Wave of Local Leaders in Verticals

• Location Based Service Leaders

• Local Retail Solution Leaders

• Local Search and Mobile Local Media

• SuperForum: The Next Steps for Group Buying

• National Advertisers Go Local

March 21-23, 2011

Boston Marriott Copley Place

Boston, Massachusetts

Register early for best price

37


BIA/Kelsey’s Continuous Advisory Services

• Covering all local media:

– Interactive, mobile, verticals, broadcasting, directories

• Giving clients ongoing direct access to BIA/Kelsey’s:

– Current research

– Expert analysis

– Strategic insights

– Unbiased advice and consultation

• Clients refer to our CAS services as their very own in-house research

and competitive intelligence team to support business activities:

– Sales transformation, audience aggregation, traffic monetization, market

sizing, product development and segmentation, M&A activities, etc.

For more information and to request a free report, contact

Steve Passwaiter at [email protected] or (703) 818-2425.

mailto:[email protected]

38


Question-and-Answer Session

Q&AsTo submit a question, please use the control panel on your screen.

On-Demand Webinar

All attendees will receive a follow up e-mail within 24 hours

with a link to an on-demand version of this webinar.

For More Information and Conference Registration

Please visit us at: www.bia.com or www.kelseygroup.com.

Contact Us

To contact us about our programs, please e-mail

Steve Passwaiter at [email protected].

http://www.bia.com/

http://www.kelseygroup.com/

mailto:[email protected]

Thank you.

BIA/Kelsey Webinar January 2011 - Momentus Change Ahead for...

Documents

Transcript of BIA/Kelsey Webinar January 2011 - Momentus Change Ahead for...