Biais cognitif, creativite et Design thinking
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Les Biais Cognitifs et la
Créativité
13/5/2014 1
http://www.taesch.com/cognitive/biais-cognitifs-creativite-design-thinking/2014/05/21/539
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I. C’est quoi, un biais ?
• Le 10 eme homme
• http://goo.gl/ukTtyP
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Première impression
• You never get a second chance to make a first
good impression
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Alan
• Intelligent
• Travailleur
• Impulsif
• Critique
• Entété
• Envieux
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Ben
• Envieux
• Entété
• Critique
• Impulsif
• Travailleur
• Intelligent
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Ben Alan
• Envieux
• Entété
• Critique
• Impulsif
• Travailleur
• Intelligent
• Intelligent
• Travailleur
• Impulsif
• Critique
• Entété
• Envieux
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Découvrons nos cartes
• Petit aperçu de nos cartes
– Association automatique
– Pensée relative
– Incertitude, Complexité, Raisonnement erroné
– Habitudes & Personnalité
– Influence sociale
– Défense du point de vue
– Available here : http://goo.gl/PzvgJ5
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Relative Thinking
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The Middle Option is never selected…
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However influence the choice…
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(Framing, Anchor)
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Contributions spontanées
Honesty Box
– In a somewhat spookier example, researchers staged an experiment in a workplace kitchen wherein employees would routinely make themselves tea or coffee in exchange for a fee that they would drop in an ‘honesty box’
– In the first stage of the experiment, the researchers planted a picture of a flowerpot in the room, while in the second stage of the experiment they replaced it with a picture of a pair of eyes
– The two pictures were then alternated back and forth each week, for a period of ten weeks
– Finally, the researchers compared how much money was left in the honesty box across the 2 situations in the experiment.
– Here’s Kahneman to explain the results: “no one commented on the new decorations, but the contributions to the honesty box changed significantly…
– On average, the users of the kitchen contributed almost three times as much in ‘eye weeks’ as they did in ‘flower weeks.’ Evidently, a purely symbolic reminder of being watched prodded people into improved behavior. As we expect at this point, the effect occurs without any awareness” . This is a very eye-opening example of how System 1 can influence System 2, and also hints at the frightening ways that System 1 might be exploited.
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Les biais selon Kahneman
• Système 1 et System 2
– Système 1
– Système 2
– L’interaction
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Système 1 & 2
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Système 1
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Système 2
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Outils & Projections
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Kahneman : résumé
• Le livre
• Un bon résumé
http://newbooksinbrief.com/2012/11/13/24-a-summary-of-thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman/
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Cognitive Bias
• 80+ : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
• 300+ : https://www.recobia.eu/ ( non public)
• Many classifications
– We took an “actionable” one , inspired by the DQ 101 Stanford Mooc (Karl Spetzler)
• DQ 101: Introduction to Decision Quality https://novoed.com/DQ101/
• Paris Meetup:
– http://www.meetup.com/Psychologie-Cognitive-et-Changement-Paris-Meetup/
– http://www.meetup.com/Paris-Antifragile-Meetup/
• Design thinking and Cognitive Bias
– @stakken86 thesis on #DesignThinking and #CognitiveBias http://goo.gl/wHU8bc
• My curation : http://www.scoop.it/t/cognitive-bias
• Dan Ariely : Guide d'introduction au comportement irrationnel
– https://www.coursera.org/course/behavioralecon
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II. Expérimenter Les Biais
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Dites le plus vite possible combien de points vous voyez
Dites le plus vite possible combien de points vous voyez
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Comptez vous ?
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Comptez vous ?
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Comptez vous ?
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Comptez vous ?
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Comptez vous ?
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Comptez vous ?
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Comptez vous ?
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Subitization
• subitization
• (psychology) The process of, or act of, glancing at a group of a few objects and knowing how many there are without actually counting.
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subitizing
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Subitisation pictures
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Group think
• Voyage a Abilene
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Voyage à AbileneQuatre adultes, un couple marié et les parents de la femme, sont assis sous un porche dans une chaleur abrutissante dans la petite ville de Coleman, au Texas, à environ 53 miles d'Abilene. Ils sirotent tristement de la citronnade, observant le ventilateur souffreteux et entamant de temps à autre une partie de domino. À un moment, le père de l’épouse suggère qu'ils se rendent à Abilene pour se restaurer dans une cafétéria. La femme dit “ bonne idée”.Le gendre pense que c'est une idée folle; que ca va être long et étouffant, mais pense que ses idées sont contraires a celles du groupe, et n’ose pas contrarier sa femme qui voit si peu ses parents. Il dit “super, j espère juste que ta maman veut y aller”.Les deux femmes ne semblent pas opposées à cette idée et voilà tout ce petit monde entassé dans une Buick sans air climatisé, qui soulève sur le chemin des nuages de poussière. À Abilene, ils mangent un déjeuner médiocre dans un endroit glauque et reviennent à Coleman épuisés, suants, et peu satisfaits du périple. Un d’entre eux dis de manière malhonnête “c était super, n est ce pas”. La belle mère dit alors “ en fait j aurais préfère rester a la maison, mais je suis venu avec car les 3 autres avait l air enthousiaste”. Le mari dit alors, “ je n avais pas vraiment envie d y aller; mais j essayais de vous satisfaire”. La femme dit “ je suis juste venu avec pour être avec vous. J aurais été folle de sortir par une telle chaleur”. Le beau père dit alors qu’il n avait suggéré ceci que parce que il pensait que les autres s ennuyait”
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradoxe_d%27Abilene
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Le timeboxing
– Menace ou opportunités
– L’aversion pour la perte. Aversion to loss
– Pommodoro
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III. Et la Créativité dans tout ca ?
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Le cerveau Reptilien
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Le Cerveau du Mammifère
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La confiance se bâtit sur l expérience du succès
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Conversational Intelligence
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Fear activate Cortisol and shut down the cortex
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Trust, Experiment, Co-create
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Le planning poker
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Estimation relative
• Wysati : What you see is all there is.
• Sur optimisme
• Confiance exagérée
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Réunion quotidienne
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Confirmation Bias
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Tableaux des tâches
– Visualiser
– Projeter pour comprendre la complexité
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priming
• Video
• http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HRAKt0GakJM
• “the ‘Florida effect’ involves two stages of priming. First, the set of words primes thoughts of old age, though the word old is never mentioned (“worried,” “Florida,” “old,” “lonely,” “gray,” “bingo, ); second, these thoughts prime a behavior, walking slowly, which is associated with old age. All this happenswithout any awareness. When they were questioned afterward, none of the students reported noticingthat the words had had a common theme, and they all insisted that nothing they did after the first experiment could have been influenced by the words they had encountered. The idea of old age had not come into their conscious awareness, but their actions changed nevertheless”
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Framing
• http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ng9V2JneJ68• “the five-year survival rates clearly favor surgery, but in the
short term surgery is riskier than radiation”• When it came to the short term risks of surgery, though, • half of the doctors were shown stats that referred to the
survival rate (which is 90% after one month), • while the other half of the doctors were shown stats that
referred to the mortality rate (which is 10% after one month) .
• Here’s Kahneman with the results: “you already know the results: surgery was much more popular in the former frame (84% of physicians chose it) than in the latter (where 50% favored radiation).
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Brainstorming: the 65’s way
• Focus on quantity
• Withhold criticism
• Welcome unusual ideas
• Combine and improve ideas
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Brainstorming: the challenges
• Blocking
• Collaborative fixation
• Evaluation apprehension
• Free-riding
• Personality characteristics
• Social matching
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• PS: a bit of Mess is good for creativity (Priming Divergent rather than order = convergent)
• http://consulting.openbooklearning.com/misc/damage-results-from-linking-creativity-only-to-divergent-thinking/
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Divergent and Convergent Thinking
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You already knew biases…
• Some bias are helpful in convergent and « harmful » in divergent and vice versa,
– e.g. : association, priming, defence of the mindset, framing…
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Removing Bias ?
• Most classical techniques discovered in brainstorming, CPS, DT are in fact either usingbias or going around bias to mitigate theireffects…
• One cannot really remove biases, because weare human.. But we can be aware of theireffects… and knowingly either use them of defend against them..
• This is .. Maturity …
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Saturer et GrouperSaturate and Group
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Les radiateurs d information
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Low fidelity Prototype
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Sunk Cost Fallacy
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Organiser Créativementla créativité autour des biais
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Design thinking
• http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design_thinking
• Le Design Thinking est une méthode de créativité et de son management qui se veut une synthèse entre la penséeanalytique et la pensée intuitive. Il s'appuie beaucoup sur un processus de co-créativité impliquant des retours de l'utilisateur final.
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Design Thinking
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Divergent and Convergent Thinking
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Design Thinking Techniques
http://dschool.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/BootcampBootleg2010v2SLIM.pdf
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Knowingand Sharing
where CB impact your
process
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• Loss aversion
• Confirmation bias
• Sunk cost fallacy
• Anchoring bias
• Overconfidence bias– Above average : all the children are above average
– limited to “easy” tasks in which success is common or in which people feel competent. For difficult tasks, the effect reverses itself and people believe they are worse than others
– Strikes, lawsuits, and wars could arise from overplacement.
• Framing
• Deformation Professionelle
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Autres Pratiquesautour des biais
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Autres pratiques
• Serious games
• Lean startup
• Design thinking
• Décision quality
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Game storming / Serious games
• Jeux sérieux
• http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeu_s%C3%A9rieux
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Decision Quality
• https://novoed.com/DQ101
• Mooc @ Stanford
• (La classification utilisée ici vient de la) .
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Lean startup
• http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_Startup
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Plus de détails ...
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La Table des Matieres Du Livre•
i. Introduction/Synopsis•
• PART I: AN INTRODUCTION TO THINKING, WITH A FOCUS ON SYSTEM 1•
• Section 1: An Introduction to Thought, Fast and Slow•
• 1. Thought, Fast and Slow•
• Section 2: System 1 Under the Microscope•
• 2. Learning by Association and the Priming Effect• a. Association• b. The Priming Effect• 3. Context and Causality• a. Context• b. Causality• 4. Judging and Evaluating on Limited Evidence: WYSIATI and Substitution• a. WYSIATI• b. Substitution• 5. When System 1 Judges People: Stereotypes, First Impressions, and the Halo Effect• a. Stereotypes• b. First Impressions• c. The Halo Effect• 6. The Interaction Between System 1 and System 2•
• PART II: THE ERRORS OF SYSTEM 1•
• 7. An Error of Association and Priming: The Anchoring Effect•
• 8. The Framing Effect•
• 9. File Under WYSIATI• a. WYSIATI and Confidence• b. WYSIATI and Estimations• c. The Two Selves