Bhushan Steel

13
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Particulars (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 1QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 4QFY2010 % chg (qoq) Net sales 1,373 1,305 5.2 1,609 (14.7) EBITDA 408 297 37.4 419 (2.7) % margin 29.7 22.8 696bp 26.1 366bp Net profit 206 172 19.7 241 (14.6) Source: Company, Angel Research Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume: For 1QFY2011, Bhushan Steel (BSL) reported a 14.4% yoy (21.2% qoq) decline in sales volume to 309,333 tonnes, of which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales stood at 93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation increased by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net revenue grew by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne hot strip mill is under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled steel during the quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011. Solid margins in 1QFY2011: Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA margin expanded by 696bp yoy and 366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of lower raw-material cost. Raw-material cost as a percentage of revenue fell to 54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to 66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in 4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 37.4% yoy to Rs408cr but declined 2.7% qoq. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in 4QFY2010 and US $169 in 1QFY2010. Consequently, net profit increased by 19.7% yoy to Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to post a 26.2% CAGR in volumes over FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by October 2012E along with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E. Moreover, with debt/equity expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in FY2012E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net sales 4,943 5,641 6,290 7,131 % chg 18.3 14.1 11.5 13.4 Net profit 421 829 968 1,259 % chg (0.6) 96.9 16.7 30.0 EPS (Rs) 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4 EBITDA margin (%) 20.8 25.7 37.5 41.1 P/E (x) 15.7 8.0 6.8 5.3 P/BV (x) 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 RoE (%) 20.8 29.2 26.0 26.1 RoCE (%) 8.7 10.0 12.6 14.0 EV/Sales (x) 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 11.5 7.3 6.0 Source: Company, Angel Research BUY CMP Rs1,559 Target Price Rs1,979 Investment Period 12 months Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code BHUS@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 69.2 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.3 FII / NRIs / OCBs 1.9 Indian Public / Others 3.5 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 3,0 15.4 20.7 BSL (12.7) 99.6 135.8 Face Value (Rs) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Steel Avg. Daily Volume Market Cap (Rs cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low 10 18,081 5,432 BSSL.BO 6,623 1.6 1856/696 117146 Paresh Jain Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348 [email protected] Pooja Jain Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311 [email protected] Bhushan Steel Performance Highlights 1QFY2011 Result Update | Steel August 02, 2010

Transcript of Bhushan Steel

Page 1: Bhushan Steel

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

 

Particulars (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 1QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 4QFY2010 % chg (qoq)

Net sales 1,373 1,305 5.2 1,609 (14.7)

EBITDA 408 297 37.4 419 (2.7)

% margin 29.7 22.8 696bp 26.1 366bp

Net profit 206 172 19.7 241 (14.6)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume: For 1QFY2011, Bhushan Steel (BSL) reported a 14.4% yoy (21.2% qoq) decline in sales volume to 309,333 tonnes, of which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales stood at 93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation increased by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net revenue grew by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne hot strip mill is under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled steel during the quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011.

Solid margins in 1QFY2011: Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA margin expanded by 696bp yoy and 366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of lower raw-material cost. Raw-material cost as a percentage of revenue fell to 54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to 66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in 4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 37.4% yoy to Rs408cr but declined 2.7% qoq. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in 4QFY2010 and US $169 in 1QFY2010. Consequently, net profit increased by 19.7% yoy to Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially.

Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to post a 26.2% CAGR in volumes over FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by October 2012E along with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E. Moreover, with debt/equity expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in FY2012E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA.

Key Financials

Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

Net sales 4,943 5,641 6,290 7,131

% chg 18.3 14.1 11.5 13.4

Net profit 421 829 968 1,259

% chg (0.6) 96.9 16.7 30.0

EPS (Rs) 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4

EBITDA margin (%) 20.8 25.7 37.5 41.1

P/E (x) 15.7 8.0 6.8 5.3

P/BV (x) 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.2

RoE (%) 20.8 29.2 26.0 26.1

RoCE (%) 8.7 10.0 12.6 14.0

EV/Sales (x) 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 11.5 7.3 6.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUY CMP Rs1,559 Target Price Rs1,979

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code BHUS@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 69.2

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.3

FII / NRIs / OCBs 1.9

Indian Public / Others 3.5

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 3,0 15.4 20.7

BSL (12.7) 99.6 135.8

Face Value (Rs)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Steel

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (Rs cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

10

18,081

5,432

BSSL.BO

6,623

1.6

1856/696

117146

Paresh Jain Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348

[email protected]

Pooja Jain Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311

[email protected]

Bhushan Steel Performance Highlights

1QFY2011 Result Update | Steel

August 02, 2010

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Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 2

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 yoy % FY10 FY09 yoy %

Net sales 1,373 1,305 5.2 5,641 4,943 14.1

Raw material 750 862 (13.0) 3,538 3,352 5.5

% of net sales 54.6 66.1

62.7 67.8

Staff cost 25 18 38.4 84 101 (16.9)

% of net sales 1.8 1.4

1.5 2.0

Other expenditure 190 128 48.8 570 475 20.0

% of net sales 13.8 9.8

10.1 9.6

Total expenditure 965 1,008 (4.3) 4,192 3,928 6.7

% of net sales 70.3 77.2

74.3 79.5

Operating profit 408 297 37.4 1,449 1,015 42.8

OPM (%) 29.7 22.8

25.7 20.5

Other operating income - - - - 14 -

EBITDA 408 297 37.4 1,449 1,029 40.8

EBITDA margin (%) 29.7 22.8

25.7 20.8

Interest 79 49 60.4 217 252 (14.1)

Depreciation 53 54 (1.5) 220 234 (6.2)

Other income 6 33 (82.8) 116 18 539.8

Exceptional items - -

- -

PBT 281 226 24.3 1,128 561 101.2

% of net sales 20.5 17.3

20.0 11.3

Tax 76 54 38.7 299 139 114.3

% of PBT 26.9 24.1

26.5 24.9

PAT 206 172 19.7 829 421 96.9

% of net sales 15.0 13.2

14.7 8.5

EPS (Rs) 48.4 40.5 19.7 195.3 99.2 96.9

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: Quarterly production trend (tonnes) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 yoy % qoq %

Flat products 439,000 411,325 455,901 503,085 461,859 5.2 (8.2)

Cold rolled steel 281,490 264,388 298,835 318,725 257,213 (8.6) (19.3)

Galvanized steel 130,122 119,753 127,060 154,214 114,033 (12.4) (26.1)

H&T 1,934 2,440 2,581 2,641 2,609 34.9 (1.2)

HTSS 1,307 1,417 2,466 2,346 2,275 74.1 (3.0)

Colour coating 24,147 23,327 24,959 25,159 22,940 (5.0) (8.8)

Hot rolled steel - - - - 62,789 - -

Long products 219,935 172,689 227,613 220,533 211,426 (3.9) (4.1)

Billets 79,954 60,007 86,788 72,335 67,131 (16.0) (7.2)

Sponge iron 103,259 78,258 105,009 114,094 114,484 10.9 0.3

Wire rods 12,853 9,643 7,353 4,152 4,954 (61.5) 19.3

Tube & shutters 23,583 24,554 28,254 29,711 24,588 4.3 (17.2)

Formed sections 286 227 209 241 269 (5.9) 11.6

Total production 658,935 584,014 683,514 723,618 673,285 2.2 (7.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 3

Exhibit 3: Quarterly sales volume trend (tonnes) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 yoy % qoq %

Flat products 250,665 246,042 256,931 292,549 215,808 (13.9) (26.2)

Cold rolled steel 118,914 116,095 129,917 135,683 104,019 (12.5) (23.3)

Galvanized steel 105,188 103,475 99,145 127,129 86,923 (17.4) (31.6)

H&T 2,007 2,422 2,531 2,767 2,430 21.1 (12.2)

HTSS 1,477 1,261 2,246 2,139 1,373 (7.0) (35.8)

Colour coating 23,079 22,789 23,092 24,832 21,037 (8.8) (15.3)

Hot rolled steel - - - - 26 - -

Long products 110,544 93,488 102,443 100,230 93,525 (15.4) (6.7)

Billets 70,369 57,968 68,333 66,821 65,624 (6.7) (1.8)

Sponge iron 4,206 1,467 8 0 0 (100.0) (100.0)

Wire rods 12,405 9,688 7,367 3,449 4,963 (60.0) 43.9

Tube & shutters 23,303 24,132 26,515 29,708 22,670 (2.7) (23.7)

Formed sections 261 233 220 251 268 2.7 6.8

Total sales volume 361,209 339,530 359,374 392,779 309,333 (14.4) (21.2)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Quarterly realisation trend (gross) (Rs/tonne) 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 yoy % qoq %

Flat products 41,486 43,074 44,280 45,124 50,916 22.7 12.8

Cold Rolled Steel 39,011 40,777 42,258 41,647 47,386 21.5 13.8

Galvanized Steel 41,792 43,469 43,956 46,324 51,632 23.5 11.5

H&T 79,223 78,035 81,391 80,737 88,889 12.2 10.1

HTSS 48,070 43,616 53,428 52,875 57,538 19.7 8.8

Colour Coating 49,136 49,234 52,096 53,348 60,608 23.3 13.6

Hot rolled steel - - - - 38,462 - -

Long products 28,975 30,464 31,334 33,984 36,300 25.3 6.8

Billets 25,750 26,170 26,664 28,654 30,781 19.5 7.4

Sponge Iron 14,265 11,588 - - - - -

Wire Rods 28,617 26,528 26,198 31,542 31,030 8.4 (1.6)

Tube & Shutters 41,411 43,386 44,692 46,139 53,242 28.6 15.4

Formed Sections 42,146 42,918 45,455 47,809 52,239 23.9 9.3

Avg. gross realisation 38,634 40,453 42,162 43,786 47,879 23.9 9.3

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 4

Result highlights

Muted top-line performance led by lower sales volume

BSL’s sales volume declined by 14.4% yoy and 21.2% qoq to 309,333 tonnes, of which flat sales accounted for 215,808 tonnes and long products sales stood at 93,525 tonnes. However, on the positive side, average gross realisation increased by 23.9% yoy and 9.3% qoq to Rs47,879/tonne. Consequently, net revenue grew by 5.2% yoy but fell by 14.7% qoq to Rs1,373cr. The 1.9mn tonne hot strip mill is under trial runs and BSL produced 62,789 tonnes of hot rolled steel during the quarter. The mill is expected to be commissioned in 2QFY2011.

Exhibit 5: Net revenue grew by 5.2% yoy

Source: Company, Angel Research

EBITDA margin expands by 696bp yoy

Despite muted top-line performance, EBITDA margin expanded by 696bp yoy and 366bp qoq to 29.7% mainly on account of lower raw-material cost. Raw-material cost as a percentage of revenue fell to 54.6% in 1QFY2011 as compared to 66.1% in 1QFY2010 and 60.8% in 4QFY2010. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 37.4% yoy to Rs408cr. EBITDA/tonne increased to US $289 from US $232 in 4QFY2010 and US $169 in 1QFY2010.

Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin expands by 696bp yoy

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 7: EBITDA/tonne at US $289 in 1QFY2011

Source: Company, Angel Research

1,305 1,298 1,429

1,609

1,373

(20)

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390 419 408

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Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 5

Net profit came in at Rs206cr

While interest expense increased by 60.4% yoy and 43.0% qoq to Rs79cr, interest income fell by 82.8% yoy and 88.9% qoq to Rs6cr. Consequently, net profit increased by 19.7% yoy to Rs206cr but declined 14.6% sequentially.

Exhibit 8: Net profit grew by 19.7% yoy in 1QFY2011

Source: Company, Angel Research

172 189

227 241

206

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Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 6

Investment rationale

Entering a new orbit

BSL has undertaken an expansion plan in Orissa to increase its foothold in the industry. The project is being executed in three phases, with Phase-I already commissioned in FY2007 and Phase-II being commissioned recently. Post the completion of Phase-II, the company's primary steel-making capacity will increase to 2.2mn tonnes. Moreover, with the commissioning of its new HR plant in 2QFY2011E, BSL is moving from being a steel converter to a leading primary producer of steel, extending its presence in the steel value chain. Phase-III is currently under execution and is expected to come on stream by 3QFY2013E. On completion of Phase-III, BSL's primary capacity will increase to 4.7mn tonnes, making it one of the leading steel producers.

Volume growth sweetened by increasing EBITDA/tonne

With the commissioning of BSL's Phase-III expansion plan, we expect sales volume to grow at a 26.2% CAGR over FY2010–15E, much higher than its peers. Despite BSL not being integrated, cost of production is expected to be low due to a) its unique combination of BF-EAF technology to produce steel and b) lower conversion costs. The usage of BF-EAF technology will result in lower coal costs. Hence, we expect EBITDA to register a 42.3% CAGR over FY2010–12E through a combination of BF-EAF technology and low conversion cost. Thus, BSL is expected to earn EBITDA/tonne of US $331 in FY2011E and US $345 in FY2012E.

Exhibit 9: Volumes to grow at 26.2% CAGR (FY10-15E)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: EBITDA/tonne at US $331 in FY2011

Source: Company, Angel Research

Top supplier of niche auto-grade products

Over the years, BSL has been shifting its customer base from the trade segment to OEMs/exports. We believe growing investments by foreign OEMs and the strategic alliance with Sumitomo Metal will complement the company’s OEM relationships and will likely help BSL mitigate demand risks.

0

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Post Phase-III expansion

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Captive usage of HR to lower cost

Page 7: Bhushan Steel

Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 7

Outlook and Valuation

At the CMP of Rs1,559, the stock is trading at 7.3x FY2011E and 6.0x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We expect BSL to register a 26.2% CAGR in volumes over FY2010–15E on completion of its Phase-III expansion plan by October 2012 along with EBITDA/tonne increasing to US $331 in FY2011E. Moreover, with debt/equity expected to decline from 3.3x in FY2009 to 2.0x in FY2012E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs1,979, valuing the stock at 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. At our target price, the stock would trade at 1.2x EV/IC.

Exhibit 11: Key assumptions Key assumptions FY11E FY12E

Revenue/tonne (Rs) 39,696 37,786

Sales volume (mn tonnes) 1.6 1.9

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 12: EV/EBITDA band

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 13: P/E band

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

0

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Page 8: Bhushan Steel

Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 8

Exhibit 14: P/BV band

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 15: Recommendation summary

Companies CMP Target

Price Reco. Mcap

Upside (%)

P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

(Rs) (Rs)

(Rs cr)

FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E

SAIL 203 - Neutral 83,971 - 13.4 11.8 2.2 1.9 8.8 7.6 17.9 17.6 16.3 16.9

Tata Steel 537 697 Buy 48,516 29.8 9.0 9.6 1.5 1.3 6.8 6.2 17.9 14.7 11.8 11.7

JSW Steel 1,117 1,344 Buy 29,038 20.4 14.9 11.4 1.5 1.3 7.0 5.5 13.9 12.4 12.5 12.6

Bhushan Steel

1,559 1,979 Buy 6,623 26.9 6.8 5.3 1.6 1.2 7.3 6.0 26.0 26.1 12.6 14.0

Electrosteel 49 72 Buy 1,593 47.5 7.5 7.3 0.9 0.8 5.7 5.0 14.2 13.1 11.9 12.3

Godawari Power

250 322 Buy 673 28.9 4.7 3.5 1.0 0.8 3.5 2.3 26.1 26.7 21.2 23.5

Sarda Energy 260 290 Accumulate 874 11.6 7.4 5.9 1.3 1.1 5.4 4.0 19.4 20.2 15.1 16.5

Prakash Ind. 175 232 Buy 2,353 32.9 7.9 5.3 1.2 1.0 5.5 4.2 19.7 23.2 16.6 18.7

Monnet Ispat 450 534 Buy 2,699 18.8 10.0 6.9 1.3 1.1 9.1 7.4 14.8 17.6 11.7 12.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 9

Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Gross sales 4,179 4,645 5,395 6,004 6,800 7,709

Less: Excise duty (364) (467) (452) (363) (510) (578)

Net sales 3,815 4,177 4,943 5,641 6,290 7,131

Other operating income 23 28 14 0 40 50

Total operating income 3,838 4,205 4,957 5,641 6,330 7,181

% chg 37.4 9.6 17.9 13.8 12.2 13.5

Total expenditure 3,210 3,370 3,928 4,192 3,973 4,248

Net raw materials 2,843 2,973 3,352 3,538 3,212 3,314

Other mfg costs 316 323 475 570 650 793

Personnel 51 74 101 84 111 142

Other - - - - - -

EBITDA 628 835 1,029 1,449 2,357 2,933

% chg 58.6 33.0 23.2 40.8 62.7 24.4

(% of Net sales) 16.5 20.0 20.8 25.7 37.5 41.1

Depreciation 209 211 234 220 495 605

EBIT 419 624 795 1,229 1,862 2,327

% chg 82.0 48.8 27.4 54.7 51.5 25.0

(% of Net sales) 11.0 14.9 16.1 21.8 29.6 32.6

Interest charges 77 137 252 217 557 647

Other income 30 52 18 116 21 44

(% of PBT) 8.2 9.6 3.2 10.2 1.6 2.5

Share in profit of asso. - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 372 539 561 1,128 1,326 1,725

% chg 133.2 44.7 4.1 101.2 17.5 30.0

Extra. Inc/(Expense) - - - - - -

PBT (reported) 372 539 561 1,128 1,326 1,725

Tax 59 115 139 299 358 466

(% of PBT) 15.9 21.4 24.9 26.5 27.0 27.0

PAT (reported) 313 424 421 829 968 1,259

Add: Earnings of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest - - - - - -

Extra. Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 313 424 421 829 968 1,259

ADJ. PAT 313 424 421 829 968 1,259

% chg 102.8 35.3 (0.6) 96.9 16.7 30.0

(% of Net sales) 8.2 10.1 8.5 14.7 15.4 17.7

Basic EPS (Rs) 75.0 99.8 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4

Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 74.4 99.8 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4

% chg 97.2 34.0 (0.6) 96.9 16.7 30.0

Page 10: Bhushan Steel

Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 02, 2010 10

Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity share capital 42 42 42 42 42 42

Reserves & surplus 1,172 1,583 1,992 2,809 3,764 5,011

Shareholders’ funds 1,215 1,625 2,034 2,851 3,807 5,054

Share warrants - - 400 400 400 400

Minority interest - - - - - -

Total loans 3,242 5,718 8,066 10,366 11,346 11,826

Deferred tax liability 124 197 246 246 246 246

Total liabilities 4,580 7,540 10,747 13,864 15,800 17,526

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross block 2,694 2,927 3,282 8,482 10,482 11,582 Less: Acc. depreciation

970 1,168 1,396 1,616 2,110 2,716

Net Block 1,723 1,759 1,886 6,866 8,372 8,866 Capital work-in-progress

1,892 4,568 7,400 5,800 6,300 7,700

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 21 58 114 114 114 114

Current assets 1,763 2,418 2,744 3,026 3,464 3,824

Cash 100 28 124 301 689 898

Loans & advances 367 644 769 769 769 769

Other 1,295 1,747 1,850 1,956 2,006 2,157

Current liabilities 819 1,264 1,396 1,943 2,450 2,978

Net current assets 944 1,155 1,347 1,084 1,014 846 Mis. exp. not written off

- - - - - -

Total assets 4,580 7,540 10,747 13,864 15,800 17,526

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Cash flow statement Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

Profit before tax 372 539 561 1,128 1,326 1,725

Depreciation 209 211 234 220 495 605 Change in working capital (230) (372) (468) 441 458 376

Less: Other income 42.9 123.9 255.9 0.0 - -

Direct taxes paid 41 63 46 299 358 466 Cash flow from operations

353 439 537 1,490 1,920 2,241

(Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed assets

(1,323) (2,415) (1,770) (3,600) (2,500) (2,500)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in investments

(1) (36) (49) - - -

(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and advances

- - - - - -

Other income 26 17 13 - - - Cash flow from investing

(1,298) (2,434) (1,806) (3,600) (2,500) (2,500)

Issue of equity 20 - 400 - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 1,206 2,430 1,956 2,300 980 480

Dividend paid 12 11 8 12 12 12

Others 251 495 982 - - - Cash flow from financing

964 1,923 1,366 2,287 968 468

Inc./(Dec.) in cash 19 (73) 97 177 388 208

Opening cash bal. 82 100 28 124 301 689

Closing cash bal. 100 28 124 301 689 898

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Bhushan Steel | 1QFY2011 Result Update

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Key ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

Valuation ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 21.1 15.6 15.7 8.0 6.8 5.3

P/CEPS 12.7 10.4 10.1 6.3 4.5 3.6

P/BV 5.5 4.1 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.2

Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

EV/Sales 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5

EV/EBITDA 15.5 14.7 14.2 11.5 7.3 6.0

EV/Total assets 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0

Per share data (Rs)

EPS (Basic) 75.0 99.8 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4

EPS (fully diluted) 73.8 99.8 99.2 195.3 228.0 296.4

Cash EPS 122.9 149.5 154.4 247.0 344.4 439.0

DPS 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Book value 286.0 382.7 573.2 765.6 990.6 1,284.2

DuPont analysis

EBIT margin 11.0 14.9 16.1 21.8 29.6 32.6

Tax retention ratio (%) 84.1 78.6 75.1 73.5 73.0 73.0

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5

RoIC (Post-tax) 9.6 8.2 6.6 7.5 9.5 10.8

Cost of debt (post tax) 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.2 3.7 4.1

Leverage (x) 2.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.0

Operating RoE 28.0 28.7 19.2 23.7 24.2 24.2

Returns (%)

RoCE (Pre-tax) 11.1 10.3 8.7 10.0 12.6 14.0

Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 19.9 22.6 25.8 22.4 22.5 26.2

RoE 29.7 29.8 20.8 29.2 26.0 26.1

Turnover ratios (x)

Asset turnover (gross block)

1.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.7

Inventory (days) 97 139 134 130 130 130

Receivables (days) 52 54 46 45 50 50

Payables (days) 79 114 80 90 100 100

WC cycle (days) 48 57 62 67 64 61

Solvency ratios (x)

Net debt to equity 2.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.0

Net debt to EBITDA 5.0 6.8 7.7 6.9 4.5 3.7

Interest coverage 5.4 4.6 3.2 5.7 3.3 3.6

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Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Bhushan Steel 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)