Bharti airtel fin-quest_100513

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Bharti Airtel CMP : INR 324 Rating : Buy Target : INR 410 Margins contract due to higher network costs and fuel expenses… Operating matrics in India improves, while that of Africa disappoints … Voice realization in both India and Africa continues to remain under pressure, but higher AMOU in India is a major positive… Headline tariffs are set to improve… Maintain 'Buy' rating on the stock with revised price target of Rs 410 Bharti Airtel's consolidated net profit during Q4FY13 missed our estimates as well as the consensus estimates due to price realization pressure in India & Africa, high network rollout costs and sharp rise in interest cost and higher tax expenses during the quarter. Although the number of subscribers on the company's network increased both in India and Africa resulting in higher total minutes on the network (TMOU), the realized revenue per minute (ARPM) continued to remain under pressure. The average revenue per user (ARPU) though increased due to increased data usage from its 3G user base and higher voice minutes of usage (AMOU) per subscriber per month during the quarter. Nevertheless pressure on price realization implies that the competitive intensity continues to be chronic despite lower number of operators per circle. Lately though there are signs that the price is trending up and operators are cutting back on promotional & discount offers and free minutes. So this bodes well for the incumbents in the months ahead. The regulatory confusion with respect to 3G inter circle roaming (ICR), one time spectrum payment, license extension etc. continues to prevail. The regulatory pressure in Africa with respect to implementation of KYC norm, spectrum price etc also seen increasing lately, while higher rollout expenses in many regions of Africa and India continue to pressure the margins despite lower subscriber churn. The consolidated revenue for the quarter under review grew 9% Y-o-Y (1% Q-o-Q) to Rs 204.48 bn on the back of increased minutes on the company's network. As at the end of March 2013, the company had an aggregate of 271.2 mn customers consisting of 259.8 mn mobile (India, South Asia & Africa), 3.3 mn tele-media and 8.1 mn digital TV customers. Its total customer base increased by 8% compared to its customer base as on March 31, 2012. Margins contract due to pressure on voice realization and higher network costs Despite sharp fall in selling, general & administrative expenses due to improvement in customer acquisition process and improved bad debt collection, the network expansion cost and fuel cost caused the margins to contract. As a percentage of total revenue the network operations cost increased 200 bps Y-o-Y (20 bps lower Q-o-Q) to 27.8% while the selling, general & administrative expenses fell 40 bps Y-o-Y (85 bps Q-o-Q) to 19.9%. The access charges were lower by 25 bps Y-o-Y (100 bps Q-o-Q) at 13.4% of consolidated revenue due to lower volumes in the international wholesale voice business. Thus the EBIDTA margin contracted 155 bps Y-o-Y (improved 120 bps Q-o-Q) to 31.7%. Operating matrics of India improves, while that of Africa disappoints The mobile subscribers in India & south Asia increased 3.8% Y-o-Y (3.5% Q-o-Q) to 188.2 mn after two quarters of subscriber contraction. TMOU on the company's network increased 10.7% Y-o-Y (3.4% Q-o-Q) to 293.67 bn minutes due to higher number subscriber on the network and increase in AMOU per subscriber. The AMOU rose 5.6% Y-o-Y (4.6% Q-o-Q) to 455 minutes per subscriber per month, although the ARPM contracted 3.3% -o-Y (0.3% Q-o-Q) to Rs 0.42. May 9, 2013 For Private Circulation Only FINQUEST research also available on BLOOMBERG FSPL <GO> and REUTERS. Shareholding % 2Q 3Q 4Q Promoters 68.0 68.0 69.0 MF/Banks/Indian FIs 8.0 8.0 9.0 FII/ NRIs/ OCBs 17.0 18.0 17.0 Indian Public 7.0 6.0 5.0 KEY DATA Market Cap (INR bn) 1295.2 Market Cap (USD mn) 23984.4 52 WK High / Low 370 / 238 Avg Daily Volume (BSE) 507834 Face Value (INR) 5 BSE Sensex 19990 Nifty 6069 BSE Code 532454 NSE Code BHARTIARTL Reuters Code BRTI.BO Bloomberg Code BHARTI IN Performance Chart Result Update Daryl Philip Senior Research Analyst Tel. : 4000 2667 [email protected] PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 3 M 6 M 12 M Absolute (2.0) 17.0 1.5 Relative (2.2) 12.5 (14.9)

Transcript of Bharti airtel fin-quest_100513

Page 1: Bharti airtel fin-quest_100513

Bharti Airtel

CMP : INR 324Rating : BuyTarget : INR 410

Margins contract due to higher network costs and fuel expenses…

Operating matrics in India improves, while that of Africa disappoints …

Voice realization in both India and Africa continues to remain under pressure,but higher AMOU in India is a major positive…

Headline tariffs are set to improve…

Maintain 'Buy' rating on the stock with revised price target of Rs 410

Bharti Airtel's consolidated net profit during Q4FY13 missed our estimates as well as theconsensus estimates due to price realization pressure in India & Africa, high network rolloutcosts and sharp rise in interest cost and higher tax expenses during the quarter. Although thenumber of subscribers on the company's network increased both in India and Africa resultingin higher total minutes on the network (TMOU), the realized revenue per minute (ARPM)continued to remain under pressure. The average revenue per user (ARPU) though increaseddue to increased data usage from its 3G user base and higher voice minutes of usage (AMOU)per subscriber per month during the quarter. Nevertheless pressure on price realization impliesthat the competitive intensity continues to be chronic despite lower number of operators percircle. Lately though there are signs that the price is trending up and operators are cutting backon promotional & discount offers and free minutes. So this bodes well for the incumbents in themonths ahead. The regulatory confusion with respect to 3G inter circle roaming (ICR), one timespectrum payment, license extension etc. continues to prevail.

The regulatory pressure in Africa with respect to implementation of KYC norm, spectrum priceetc also seen increasing lately, while higher rollout expenses in many regions of Africa andIndia continue to pressure the margins despite lower subscriber churn. The consolidated revenuefor the quarter under review grew 9% Y-o-Y (1% Q-o-Q) to Rs 204.48 bn on the back ofincreased minutes on the company's network. As at the end of March 2013, the company hadan aggregate of 271.2 mn customers consisting of 259.8 mn mobile (India, South Asia & Africa),3.3 mn tele-media and 8.1 mn digital TV customers. Its total customer base increased by 8%compared to its customer base as on March 31, 2012.

Margins contract due to pressure on voice realization and higher network costs

Despite sharp fall in selling, general & administrative expenses due to improvement in customeracquisition process and improved bad debt collection, the network expansion cost and fuelcost caused the margins to contract. As a percentage of total revenue the network operationscost increased 200 bps Y-o-Y (20 bps lower Q-o-Q) to 27.8% while the selling, general &administrative expenses fell 40 bps Y-o-Y (85 bps Q-o-Q) to 19.9%. The access charges werelower by 25 bps Y-o-Y (100 bps Q-o-Q) at 13.4% of consolidated revenue due to lower volumesin the international wholesale voice business. Thus the EBIDTA margin contracted 155 bpsY-o-Y (improved 120 bps Q-o-Q) to 31.7%.

Operating matrics of India improves, while that of Africa disappoints

The mobile subscribers in India & south Asia increased 3.8% Y-o-Y (3.5% Q-o-Q) to 188.2 mnafter two quarters of subscriber contraction. TMOU on the company's network increased 10.7%Y-o-Y (3.4% Q-o-Q) to 293.67 bn minutes due to higher number subscriber on the networkand increase in AMOU per subscriber. The AMOU rose 5.6% Y-o-Y (4.6% Q-o-Q) to 455minutes per subscriber per month, although the ARPM contracted 3.3% -o-Y (0.3% Q-o-Q) toRs 0.42.

May 9, 2013

For Private Circulation OnlyFINQUEST research also available on BLOOMBERG FSPL <GO> and REUTERS.

Shareholding % 2Q 3Q 4Q

Promoters 68.0 68.0 69.0

MF/Banks/Indian FIs 8.0 8.0 9.0

FII/ NRIs/ OCBs 17.0 18.0 17.0

Indian Public 7.0 6.0 5.0

KEY DATA

Market Cap (INR bn) 1295.2

Market Cap (USD mn) 23984.4

52 WK High / Low 370 / 238

Avg Daily Volume (BSE) 507834

Face Value (INR) 5

BSE Sensex 19990

Nifty 6069

BSE Code 532454

NSE Code BHARTIARTL

Reuters Code BRTI.BO

Bloomberg Code BHARTI IN

Performance Chart

Result Update

Daryl PhilipSenior Research AnalystTel. : 4000 [email protected]

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)

3 M 6 M 12 M

Absolute (2.0) 17.0 1.5

Relative (2.2) 12.5 (14.9)

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The operating metric in Africa though disappointed. Although the subscriber numbers increased, theusage and price realization fell during the quarter under review. The total subscribers in the 17countries of Africa rose 20% Y-o-Y (3% Q-o-Q) to 64 mn, while the AMOU per subscriber fell 7% Y-o-Y (15% Q-o-Q) to 123 minutes per subscriber per month. The ARPM in rupee term fell 8% Y-o-Y(rose 10% Q-o-Q) to Rs 2.6, while the ARPU contracted 7% Y-o-Y (6% Q-o-Q) to 320 minutes inQ4FY13.

On account of decline in voice realization across India and Africa, aggressive expansion of 3G networksin India and increasing operating expenses, the consolidated EBIDTA increased just 4% Y-o-Y (5% Q-o-Q) to Rs 64.82 bn in Q4FY13.

Bottom-line disappoints due to higher finance costs and tax expenses

The Depreciation allowance rose 15% Y-o-Y (2% Q-o-Q) to Rs 39.83 bn on the back of continuinginvestments in network rollout, while the interest cost rose 20% Y-o-Y (1% Q-o-Q) to Rs 11.67 bn.These sharp increase in finance cost resulted in the Profit before tax and minority interest to fall 24%to Rs 12.95 bn. The total tax expenses rose 13% to Rs 7.88 bn which included additional charge of Rs959 mn on account of increase in surcharge from 5% to 10%), dividend distribution tax of Rs 374 mnand withholding taxes were Rs 355 mn. Thus the net income for Q4FY13 fell 49% Y-o-Y (79% Q-o-Q) to Rs 5.09 bn.

Data to be the key driver of growth going ahead

Although the performance during the quarter was disappointing, the broader macro trend especiallyon the pricing front shows improvement on the ground. The data business is picking up in India andAfrica. So increased composition of data in the total business is expected to improve the ARPU andthe ARPM. Data consumption continues to grow 20% every quarter and has reached 24 bn MBsduring Q4FY13 and now contributes around 6.5% of the total mobile revenues (against 5.7% inQ3FY13). The company had 43.5 mn data (mobile Internet) customers, of which 6.4 mn used 3Gdata services. Data ARPU came in at Rs 55, aided by average data download of 187 MB per user permonth (an increase of 26 MB per user over previous quarter), and blended data realization rate beingstable at 29.27 paisa per MB. Data ARPU of Rs 55 is very low compared to global standards. So wesee data as the major growth driver in the quarters ahead. Operational matrics of India thus are set toimprove further, while the Africa would also improve. Thus we see margin improvement despitehigher operating expenses.

Regulatory uncertainties have become part of the telecom ecosystem

Regulatory uncertainties would continue to prevail, but we believe overall the telecom Industry shouldbe studied in isolation as the regulatory hindrances have become part of the telecom ecosystem.Nevertheless the short term pressure on profitability would remain considering the potential regulatorypayments that needs to be made in the form of one time spectrum charges and the penalty due to 3Groaming arrangement that the company has entered into with other incumbents (if the TDSAT givesan adverse verdict on this front), especially at a time when the competitive intensity has again peakeddue to which the operating costs may increase. We rollover our price target to FY14 end and reviseupward our one year price target to Rs 410. We estimate the revenue and EPS of the company forFY14 to come in at Rs 855.03 bn and Rs 52.89 respectively. We value Bharti Cellular using discountedcash flow approach to arrive at intrinsic value of Rs 448 per share. After reducing the present value ofone time excess spectrum charges and license renewal payment, we arrive at our new one year targetprice for Bharti Airtel at Rs 410.

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Comparative Valuation

Company Year End CMP Rating Total EBIDTA EPS EPS Sales EBIDTA ROE ROCE P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV

Revenue Growth Growth Margin

(bn Rs.) (bn Rs.) (Rs.) % % % % % (x) (x) (x)

FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E (14/13E) (14/13E) FY13E FY13E FY13E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Domestic Competitors

Bharti Airtel Mar 325 Buy 803.1 855.0 248.6 282.0 6.0 13.9 132.4% 6.5% 31.0% 4.5% 3.2% 54.1x 23.3x 7.5x 6.7x 2.4x 2.2x

Idea Cellular Mar 127 Buy 224.1 251.7 59.5 69.1 2.9 4.4 53.0% 12.3% 26.6% 7.0% 5.6% 41.4x 27.1x 8.7x 7.3x 2.8x 2.5x

Reliance Communication Mar 111 NR 212.2 227.8 66.7 74.5 2.7 5.2 94.7% 7.3% 31.4% 1.6% 1.5% 41.6x 21.4x 9.2x 8.2x 0.7x 0.6x

Tata Comm Mar 230 Buy 171.4 183.6 21.7 24.7 -22.1 -20.0 -9.6% 7.1% 12.7% -38.1% 2.1% NM NM 7.2x 6.1x 4.2x 6.7x

Tulip Telecom Mar 18 NR 30.6 33.7 7.7 9.0 15.5 21.4 38.1% 9.9% 25.0% 13.9% 5.2% 1.2x 0.8x 4.2x 3.6x 0.2x 0.1x

Source: FQ Research, Bloomberg *NR (Not Rated); NM (Not Meaningful)

Revenue & Profit Growth Profit margin trend

Source: Company, FQ Research Source: Company, FQ Research

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Q4FY13 Results (Consolidated)

Particulars (Mn. Rs) Q4 Q4 Y-o-Y Q3 Q-o-Q 12M 12M Y-o-YFY13 FY12 change FY13 change FY13 FY12 change

% % %

Total Revenue 204,484 187,294 9.2% 202,395 1.0% 803,112 714,508 12.4%Less:Access charges 27,498 25,658 7.2% 29,157 (5.7%) 113,226 97,361 16.3%% of total revenue 13.4% 13.7% -25 14.4% -96 14.1% 13.6% 47Licence fees, rev. sh. and spec. charges 16,933 16,218 4.4% 16,784 0.9% 66,486 61,099 8.8%% of adjusted total revenue 9.6% 10.0% -47 9.7% -12 9.6% 9.9% -26Network operations costs 49,132 41,583 18.2% 48,461 1.4% 189,315 157,598 20.1%% of adjusted total revenue 27.8% 25.7% 203 28.0% -21 27.4% 25.5% 190Personnel 10,848 8,717 24.4% 10,211 6.2% 40,098 35,159 14.0%% of adjusted total revenue 6.1% 5.4% 74 5.9% 24 5.8% 5.7% 12Selling, general & admin. expenses 35,257 32,845 7.3% 35,991 (2.0%) 145,371 126,309 15.1%% of adjusted total revenue 19.9% 20.3% -40 20.8% -85 21.1% 20.5% 61Total Expenditure 139,668 125,021 11.7% 140,604 (0.7%) 554,496 477,526 16.1%EBIDTA 64,816 62,273 4.1% 61,791 4.9% 248,616 236,982 4.9%Less: Depreciation 39,828 34,683 14.8% 39,005 2.1% 154,964 133,681 15.9%% of adjusted total revenue 22.5% 21.5% 105 22.5% -1 22.5% 21.7% 80EBIT 24,988 27,590 (9.4%) 22,786 9.7% 93,652 103,301 (9.3%)Less: Interest 11,674 9,698 20.4% 11,573 0.9% 45,693 34,863 31.1%Add: Other income (367) (836) (56.1%) (1,698) (78.4%) 1,861 (3,317) (156.1%)Profit Before Tax 12,947 17,056 (24.1%) 9,515 36.1% 49,820 65,121 (23.5%)Less: Total Tax 7,884 6,976 13.0% 6,675 18.1% 27,151 22,602 20.1%Minority Interest 23 (21) (209.5%) (3) (866.7%) 88 69 27.5%Profit After Tax 5,086 10,059 (49.4%) 2,837 79.3% 22,757 42,588 (46.6%)Pro forma Net Profit 5,086 10,059 (49.4%) 2,837 79.3% 22,757 42,588 (46.6%)Shares Outstanding (mn) 3,798 3,798 3,798 3,798 3,798Reported EPS (Rs.) 1.34 2.65 (49.4%) 0.75 79.3% 5.99 11.21 (46.6%)Pro forma EPS (Rs.) 1.34 2.65 (49.4%) 0.75 79.3% 5.99 11.21 (46.6%)EBIDTA Margin 31.7% 33.2% -155 30.5% 117 31.0% 33.2% -221Proforma NPM 2.5% 5.4% -288 1.4% 109 2.8% 6.0% -313Effective Tax Rate 60.9% 40.9% 1999 70.2% -926 54.5% 34.7% 1979

Segmental Revenue & profitabilityParticulars (Mn. Rs) Q4 Q4 Y-o-Y Q3 Q-o-Q 12M 12M Y-o-Y

FY13 FY12 change FY13 change FY13 FY12 change% % %

Segment RevenueMobile services (India & South Asia) 112,853 105,096 7.4% 109,364 3.2% 440,235 403,091 9.2%Africa Operation 60,647 53,872 12.6% 61,694 -1.7% 240,439 198,262 21.3%Telemedia Services 9,621 9,159 5.0% 9,566 0.6% 38,158 37,271 2.4%Enterprise Services 13,143 11,209 17.3% 14,219 -7.6% 53,202 44,541 19.4%Passive Infrastructure 27,189 24,183 12.4% 26,350 3.2% 103,154 95,109 8.5%Others# 5,319 753 606.4% 821 547.9% 3,533 5,992 -41.0%Elimination (24,288) (20,543) 18.2% (23,899) 1.6% -91,903 -79,784 15.2%Total Revenue 204,484 183,729 11.3% 198,115 3.2% 786,818 704,482 11.7%

Segment EBITMobile services (India & South Asia) 18,514 21,438 -13.6% 16,713 10.8% 70,677 82,242 -14.1%Africa Operation 3,355 5,131 -34.6% 4,354 -22.9% 15,472 14,002 10.5%Telemedia Services 1,669 1,517 10.0% 1,642 1.6% 6,447 7,150 -9.8%Enterprise Services 1,444 181 697.8% 888 62.6% 3,693 2,628 40.5%Passive Infrastructure 4,654 3,930 18.4% 4,200 10.8% 16,364 14,641 11.8%Others# (1,784) (2,631) -32.2% 0 NM (4,960) (11,700) -57.6%Total EBIT 27852 27,622 0.8% 25,969 7.3% 99,588 103,258 -3.6%

Segment EBIT margin Change Change Change(bps) (bps) (bps)

Mobile services (India & South Asia) 16.41% 20.40% -399.3 15.28% 112.3 16.05% 20.40% -434.8Africa Operation 5.53% 9.52% -399.1 7.06% -152.4 6.43% 7.06% -62.8Telemedia Services 17.35% 16.56% 78.5 17.16% 18.3 16.90% 19.18% -228.8Enterprise Services 10.99% 1.61% 937.2 6.25% 474.2 6.94% 5.90% 104.1Passive Infrastructure 17.12% 16.25% 86.6 15.94% 117.8 15.86% 15.39% 47.0Others# -33.54% -349.40% 31586.2 0.00% -3354.0 -140.39% -195.26% 5487.0Total EBIT margin 13.62% 15.03% -141.3 13.11% 51.3 12.66% 14.66% -200.0# includes DTH business NA - Not Available, NM - Not meaningfulSource : Company, FQ Research

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Segmental performance

Mobile Services- India & South Asia

The mobile revenue of India & south Asia rose 7.4% to Rs 112.85 bn primarily driven by 10.7% Y-o-

Y (3.4% Q-o-Q) increase in TMOU on the company's network, 5.6% Y-o-Y (4.6% Q-o-Q) increased

in AMOU per subscriber. The AMOU rose to 455 minutes per subscriber per month during the

quarter under review, although the ARPM contracted 3.3% Y-o-Y (0.3% Q-o-Q) to Rs 0.42. At the

end of March 2013, the total subscribers on the company's network in India & South Asia reached

188.2 mn. The mobile business contributed 55% to the total revenues in Q4FY13 and the company

incurred around Rs 13 bn in capex.

Bharti Airtel's total subscribers and subscriber growth trend

Source: Company, FQ Research

ARPUs & MoUs growth trend

Minute of usage (MoU) (mn min) & Average Revenue per User (ARPU) (Rs)

Source: Company, FQ Research

Out of the total ARPU of Rs 193, non voice ARPU was Rs 33.6 per user per month of which messaging

& VAS revenue per user per month was Rs 17.6 and data revenue per user per month was Rs 12.5.

Non-voice revenue as a percentage of mobile revenue increased to 17.4% in Q4FY13 as compared

to 17.3% in the previous quarter and 16.2% in Q4FY12.

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Average minutes of usage per subscriber trend Revenue per Minute (RPM) (Rs)

Source: Company, FQ Research Source: Company, FQ Research

Mobile Services- Africa

The Africa operation added a healthy 2.03 mn subscribers in Q4FY13 as compared to the previous

quarter to take the total subscribers in the region to 63.72 mn at the end March 2013. Such healthy

growth was witnessed despite several political and social issues that haunted some of the markets in

Africa. The company's operation in Africa witnessed 6% sequential fall in ARPU in rupee term to Rs

320. The ARPM in rupee term rose 10% Q-o-Q to Rs 2.6 per minute. The revenue of the company's

Africa operation improved 13% Y-o-Y (fell 2% q-o-Q) to Rs 60.65 bn in Q4FY13. The net loss from

Africa operation reduced to Rs 4.86 bn in Q4FY13 as compared to a net loss of Rs 5.2 bn in Q3FY13.

Bharti Airtel incurred a capital expenditure of USD 235 mn in its Africa operation. The Africa business

contribution to the total revenue rose to 29.6% in Q4FY13 as compared to 28.8% in 4FY12.

Africa Business- Minute of usage (MoU) (mn min) Africa Business- Profit margin trend

& Average Revenue per User (ARPU) (Rs)

Source: Company, FQ Research Source: Company, FQ Research

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Telemedia

During Q4FY13, Bharti Airtel marginally increased customers on its Telemedia networks thus taking

its total subscribers to 3.28 mn. Out of this total around 1.4 mn subscribers were the broadband (DSL)

customers. The ARPU for the quarter rose 4.8% Y-o-Y (0.5% sequentially) to Rs 978. The average

minutes of usage here in Q4FY13 was 405.2 min (lower by 3.4% Y-o-Y). The company incurred a

capital expenditure of Rs 2.25 bn in its telemedia segment.

Airtel Business

The revenues from the Airtel Business services contributed to 6.43% of the total consolidated revenues

of the company in Q4FY13.

Passive Infrastructure

The revenues from the Passive Infrastructure business contributed 13.3% of the total consolidated

revenue of the company in Q4FY13. The company operates in the tower business through its own

subsidiary- Bharti Infratel as well as through its joint venture with Idea and Vodafone- Indus Tower.

As at the end of the quarter, Bharti Infratel had 35,119 towers with a tenancy ratio of 1.81 times. Indus

Tower had 111,819 towers with a tenancy ratio of 1.99 times. Bharti Airtel has 42% stake in Indus

Towers.

DTH

Airtel digital TV has over 8.1 mn customers and now has digital TV operations in 609 districts. The

ARPU for the quarter was Rs 184 per month. During the quarter ended March 2013, the company

incurred a capital expenditure of Rs 1.33 bn on its Digital TV Services.

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Profit and Loss StatementParticulars (Mn. Rs.) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ENet Sales 714,508 803,112 855,029 1,000,443% chg 20.2% 12.4% 6.5% 17.0%Cost of Services 351,217 409,125 433,994 495,044Gross Profit 363,291 393,987 421,035 505,400(% of Net Sales) 50.8% 49.1% 49.2% 50.5%SG&A Expenses 126,309 145,371 138,993 165,924EBIDTA 236,982 248,616 282,042 339,475(% of Net Sales) 33.2% 31.0% 33.0% 33.9%Depreciation 133,681 154,964 167,072 205,893Operating Profit 103,301 93,652 114,970 133,582(% of Net Sales) 14.5% 11.7% 13.4% 13.4%Non-operating Income (3,311) 1,861 5,547 6,833Interest & Financing Charges 34,863 45,693 47,734 46,489PBT 65,127 49,820 72,783 93,926(% of Net Sales) 9.1% 6.2% 8.5% 9.4%Tax 22,602 27,151 21,194 28,987Minority Interest (69) (88) (1,296) 1,299Net Income from cont. operations 42,594 22,757 52,886 63,641Net Income 42,594 22,757 52,886 63,641

RatiosParticulars FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Valuation Ratio (x)P/E 28.9x 54.1x 23.3x 19.3xP/BV 2.4x 2.4x 2.2x 2.0xEV / Sales 2.6x 2.3x 2.2x 1.9xEV / EBIDTA 7.9x 7.5x 6.7x 5.5xMCap/Sales 1.7x 1.5x 1.4x 1.2xLeverage RatioDebt-Equity 1.36x 1.70x 1.46x 1.27xInterest Coverage 2.96x 2.05x 2.41x 2.87xPer Share Data (Rs)Diluted EPS 11.2 6.0 13.9 16.8Diluted Cash EPS 46.4 46.8 57.9 71.0Book Value 133.3 133.7 147.6 164.4Returns (%)ROE 8.6% 4.5% 9.9% 10.7%ROCE 5.3% 3.2% 5.9% 6.4%Dividend Payout 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Du-Pont AnalysisEBIDTA/Sales (%) 33.2% 31.0% 33.0% 33.9%Sales/Operating assets (x) 143.5% 159.3% 163.9% 178.4%EBIDTA/Operating Assets (%) 47.6% 49.3% 54.1% 60.5%Operating Assets/Net Assets (x) 40.6% 36.8% 35.4% 37.2%Net Earnings/EBIDTA (%) 18.0% 9.2% 18.8% 18.7%Net Assets/Net Worth (x) 247.0% 270.5% 276.1% 254.2%RoE (%) 8.6% 4.5% 9.9% 10.7%Margins (%)EBIDTA margin 33.2% 31.0% 33.0% 33.9%PBT margin 9.1% 6.2% 8.5% 9.4%PAT margin 6.0% 2.8% 6.2% 6.4%Growth Ratios (%)Net Sales 20.2% 12.4% 6.5% 17.0%EBIDTA 18.7% 4.9% 13.4% 20.4%EBIT 5.8% (9.3%) 22.8% 16.2%PAT (29.6%) (46.6%) 132.4% 20.3%APAT (29.6%) (46.6%) 132.4% 20.3%Operating CycleDebtors Days 30 31 32 30Inventory Days 2 1 1 1Creditors Days 256 257 281 264

Balance SheetParticulars (Mn. Rs.) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

SOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Capital 18,988 18,988 18,988 18,988Reserves and Surplus 487,407 489,315 542,201 605,842Treasury stocks (282) (674) (674) (674)Net Worth 506,113 507,629 560,515 624,156Deferred Income Taxes 11,621 13,062 13,906 16,272Minority Interests 27,695 40,886 40,886 40,886Other Non-current Liabilities 39,160 44,458 47,275 55,163Short term debt 193,078 246,194 233,884 226,868Long term Debt 497,154 615,485 584,710 567,169Total Liabilities 1,274,821 1,467,714 1,481,176 1,530,513APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 1,114,186 1,322,900 1,541,972 1,793,365Less: Depreciation 439,254 594,218 761,290 967,183Net Block 674,932 728,682 780,682 826,182Goodwill & Intangibles 660,889 678,366 700,343 728,431Long Term Investments 19,866 22,545 23,986 28,024Other Non-current Assets 66,845 75,134 79,991 93,595Current Assets 148,084 345,566 288,987 293,525Current Liabilities & Provisions 295,795 382,579 392,814 439,245Net Current Assets (147,711) (37,014) (103,827) (145,720)Capital Applied 1,274,821 1,467,714 1,481,176 1,530,513

Cash Flow StatementYE March (Rs. mn) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ECash Inflows From OperationsProfit Before Tax 65,127 49,820 72,783 93,926Depreciation 133,681 154,964 167,072 205,893Less:Tax paid 22,602 27,151 21,194 28,987Operating Cashflows 176,206 177,633 218,661 270,833Changes in Capital StructureIncrease in Other Reserves (24,066) (20,761) 1,296 (1,299)Increase in Others (1,734) 14,632 844 2,365Inc/(Dec) in Loans (30,187) 123,629 (27,958) (9,653)Treasury Stocks (14) (392) 0 0Inc/(Dec) in Equity/Loans 52,707 170,224 (38,127) (15,603)AdjustmentsTotal Inflows 228,913 347,857 180,534 255,230Cash OutflowsWorking Capital changesInc/(Dec) in Current Liabilities 10,320 86,784 10,234 46,431Less:Inc/(Dec) in Inventory (831) 214 100 269Inc in Debtors 8,806 7,904 4,631 12,971Inc/(Dec) in Cash 5,992 4,430 2,596 7,271Inc/(Dec) in Others 5,886 7,037 2,370 6,639Inc/(Dec) in Working Capital 9,533 (67,200) (538) (19,281)Capex/InvestmentsInc/(Dec) in Investment + Intangibles 33,510 20,156 23,419 32,126Addition to Gross Block 157,187 208,714 219,072 251,393Inc/(Dec) in Other Non-current Assets 12,529 8,289 4,857 13,604Inc/(Dec) in Fixed Assets/Invest. 203,226 237,159 247,348 297,123Inc/(Dec) in Excess Cash 16,154 177,898 (66,276) (22,613)Total Outflows 228,913 347,857 180,534 255,230

Recommendation SummaryEvent Date Price Rating TargetInitiating Coverage 19-09-2011 387 Buy 495Result Update (Q2F12) 04-11-2011 398 Buy 495Result Update (Q3F12) 09-02-2012 354 Buy 495Result Update (Q4F12) 04-05-2012 315 Buy 495Company Update 07-08-2012 252 Buy 357Result Update (Q4F13) 09-05-2013 324 Buy 410

Consolidated Financials

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