B_GRIFFNPRECISION FARMING: ADOPTION, PROFITABILITY, AND MAKING BETTER USE OF DATA
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Transcript of B_GRIFFNPRECISION FARMING: ADOPTION, PROFITABILITY, AND MAKING BETTER USE OF DATA
PRECISION FARMING: ADOPTION, PROFITABILITY, AND MAKING BETTER USE OF DATA
T.W. Griffin, J. Lowenberg-DeBoer, D.M. Lambert, and J. PeoneSite Specific Management Center - Purdue University
T. Payne and S.G. DaberkowUSDA-ERS
3 part presentation
1) Adoption trends in the US and Worldwide
2) Review of PA profitability literature
3) Making better use of yield monitor data
Adoption Trends
• Worldwide network of collaborators• USDA ARMS study• PA Services Dealership Survey
– Whipker and Akridge, 2004
Combine Yield Monitors
Yield Monitor Grain Flow Sensor
Yield Map
Higher yields
Lower yields
Actual Adoption Rates of U.S. Yield Monitors
0
10
20
30
40
% o
f pla
nted
acr
es cornsoybeanwheancotton
Approximately 30,000 in 2000 45,000 in 2003
Source: before 1995 MangoldAfter 1995 USDA ARMS
Actual Adoption Rates of U.S. Yield Mapping Yield Monitor plus a GPS
0
5
10
15
20
% o
f pla
nted
acr
es
cornsoybeancotton
Source: USDA ARMS
European Yield Monitor Use
• Germany 4250 212 2003• United Kingdom 400 43 2000• Denmark 400 100 2000• Sweden 150 48 2000• France 50 2 2000• Holland 6 11 2000• Belgium 6 7 2000• Spain 5 0 2003• Portugal 4 3 2003
Per million acresTotal Year
Latin American Yield Monitor Use
• Argentina 1000 17 2003• Brazil 100 1 2002• Chile 12 8 2000• Uruguay 4 3 2000
Total Per million acres Year
0
50
100
150
200
250yi
eld
mon
itors
Germany '03
US '03US '00 Denmark '00 Sweden '00UK '00Argentina '03 Holland '00
Yield monitors by country per million acres
Soil Mapping Adoption
05
10152025
% o
f pla
nted
acr
es
Corn Soybean Wheat Cotton
Source: USDA ARMS
Remote Sensing Adoption
0
5
10
15%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
19992000
20012002
Corn Soybean Wheat
Source: USDA ARMS
Redefined question in 2002
Adoption of VRT-Fertilizer
0
5
10
15
20%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Corn Soybean Wheat CottonSource: USDA ARMS
Adoption of VRT in Corn
0
5
10
15
20%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
1998 1999 2000 2001
Fertilizer Seed Pesticide
Source: USDA ARMS
Adoption of VRT in Soybean
0
5
10
15
20%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Fertilizer Seed Pesticide
Source: USDA ARMS
Adoption of VRT in Cotton
0
5
10
15
20%
of p
lant
ed a
cres
1998 1999 2000
Fertilizer Seed Pesticide
Source: USDA ARMS
VRT Offered by Ag Retailers
• 67% of service providers offer VRT• 40% offer single-nutrient VRT
– Still less than 50% by 2006
• 23% offer multi-nutrient VRT in 2004– 28% of providers expect to offer by 2006
• <10% offer VRT - seedingSource: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
Service Providers Offering VRT fertilizer, lime, and pesticides
0
25
50
75
100
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
% o
f dea
lers
Multi Single Total
Source: Whipker and Akridge
VRT-Fertilizer by Region
0
10
20
30
40
50%
of d
eale
rs
Midwest Other states
Manual VR Single-nutrient Multi-nutrient
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
GPS Lightbars
Purdue Davis Farm
GPS Lightbar Guidance used by Service Providers
• 61% offer applications with GPS guidance– 72% in Midwest
– 39% in other states 020406080
100
% o
f dea
lers
19992000
20012002
20032004
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
GPS Auto-Guidance
• 5.3% of dealers use GPS auto-guidance– 4.2% in Midwest and 7.4% in other states
– Regional difference?
Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
On-the-go Sensors
• Soil Dr – been around the longest• Greenseeker• Norsk Hydro N-sensor
– ~320 total units– ~300 in Europe
Sensors for Mapping
• Soil pH sensor available– Veris Mobile Sensor Platform >5 sold– K sensor being developed– 7.8% of dealers offer soil EC mapping*
*Source: Whipker and Akridge, 2004
Fundamental Constraints of Adoption
• Lack of research support• Human capital costs• Lack of education and training
Fundamental Constraints of Adoption
• Lack of support and consulting• High opportunity cost of management time• Information-intensive / embodied knowledge
“Information-intensive” vs. “Embodied knowledge”
Information-intensive• Field level data to
make decisions• Requires additional
data and skill• VRT and precision
agriculture• IPM
Embodied knowledge• Information purchased
in the form of an input• Requires minimal
additional data/skill• Hybrid corn• Round-up Ready or Bt
Fundamental Incentives of Adoption
• Technology costs are declining• Incorporation of technology in society
– GPS in cars and boats
• Increased comfort level with technology– USDA FSA and NRCS using GIS with farmers
Fundamental Incentives of AdoptionAutomating Record Keeping • Identity tracking of commodities• Pesticide record keeping • Environmental regulations – monitor input use
– May lead into cost sharing for adoption
Fundamental Incentives of AdoptionAuto-guidance systems• Increase farm size with same equipment set
– Reduce overlap, expand work day, increase speed
• Match equipment operations (6, 8, 12 row)• Controlled trafficking• Strip till
Economies of Scale in Data Analysis
• Skill to analyze 2000 ac works for 20,000 ac• Potential for PA consulting - outsourcing• Complementary goods and services
Part 2: PA Profitability Review• Standalone VRT fertilizer often does not
cover costs– Swinton and Lowenberg-DeBoer (1998)
• In 2000, 63% of studies showed profits, but budget methods not standardized– Lambert and Lowenberg-DeBoer (2000)
• Economics of precision agriculture are site-specific
Profitability Studies to Date
• Reviewed 234 articles• 210 reported some kind of benefit or loss• Of those, 68% reported positive benefits• 52% of studies involved an economist
Articles by Technology
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% o
f art
icle
s
VRT generalVRT - NVRT - GPSVRT - seedVRT - pestVRT - P,KVRT- YMVRT - limeSoil sensing
Articles by Crop
05
10152025303540
Corn
Wheat
Mixed
Corn/SoybeanPotatoSoybeanCorn/CottonSoybean/corn/rice
Sorghum/Millet
Cotton
% o
f art
icle
s % of total
% reporting positive benefits
Part 3: Better Use of Data
• Many farmers collecting data– 10 + years and several megabytes
• Question remains: what to do with the data?• No one has all the answers• Is data valuable enough to justify processing?
Better Use of Data
• Better farm-level experimental designs• Spatial statistical methods• More reliable local information
Better Experimental Designs
• Small plot designs developed 70 years ago– Blocking and replications neutralize variability
• Precision agriculture measures variability• Spatial statistics can model variability
Better Experimental Designs
• Opportunity for fewer replication large blocks• Types of comparisons farmer tend to conduct• Experimental designs being tested in 4 states• Farmer feedback crucial to evaluation
64 acre field
Satellite image taken in July
Red outline is field boundary
Planned comparisondesign3 varieties
Single-blocknon-replicated
Note: soil typesare outlined in blue
Each variety isrepresented on each major soiltype/zone
Once designs aredecided upon in off-season,implementationis simple at planting time
Treatments can be changed at normal planterrefilling times
Soybean harvestcan be conductedat any angle to planter pass
Yield Monitor Data Analysis
• Yield monitor data analysis service pilot project• 37th Annual Top Farmer Crop Workshop
– July 18-21, 2004
• More reliable results gained
http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/topfarmer
Summary
• Adoption has been slow and uneven• Economics well documented – many studies• Information-intensive vs. embodied knowledge ag• Need for analysis services to overcome constraints
Role of Extension Farm Management
• Third party evaluation desperately needed– Firm understanding of precision technologies
• Help farmers develop own recommendations instead of supplying answer– On-farm comparisons
Role of Extension Farm Management
• Assist farmers and ag businesses in understanding economics of information
Barriers to adoption are an opportunity for extension to be more relevant
Terry [email protected]
Site-Specific Management CenterPurdue Universityhttp://www.purdue.edu/ssmc