Beyond Zero Carbon Housing - Bill Gething
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Beyond Zero
Carbon HousingCarbon Housinge x p l o r i n g s o l u t i o n s t o s u s t a i n a b i l i t y i s s u e s
b e y o n d t h e z e r o c a r b o n a g e n d a
2 4 t h O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 a t T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f N o t t i n g h a m2 4 t h O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 a t T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f N o t t i n g h a m
D e p a r t m e n t o f A r c h i t e c t u r e a n d B u i l t E n v i r o n m e n t
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©
Copyright NoticeCopyright NoticeAl l the mater ia l in these s l ides
may not be used or reproduced wi thout the
express permiss ion of the authors
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Bill Gething
Zero Carbon Housing in a Changing Climate
Beyond Zero Carbon Housing
University of Nottingham
October 2012
http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf
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http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf
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Hotter drier summers
Wetter warmer winters
Extreme events more likely
Sea level rise
Headlines
Sea level rise
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Water
Food
Health
Land
Environment
What kind of future? Change ºC
65
High
Temperature: Global Mean –
Change
34
2
20-50 % extinction
450 million affected by coastal flooding
New York, London, Tokyo etc threatened
Med(A1B)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
1800 1900 2000 2100
01
2
(B1)
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Shaping the Future? Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)
High(A1F1)
160
140
120 (A1F1)
Low(B1)2
040
120
80
100
60
Med(A1B)
(B1)
World
Stabilisation
Scenario
(-4%/ yr from 2016)
20
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
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Twin Challenges
Mitigation Reduce emissions
Adaptation Design for a changing climate
Exploit the overlap
Avoid the conflictsAvoid the conflicts
…and don’t forget the Delight
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Comfort
Construction
Water
Design agenda:
Regional variation + geographic specifics
Existing stock
Low carbon imperative.
Behavioural adaptation
Timing
Tactics:
Context:
Timing
Scale
Competition, consensus and regulation.
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UK Climate Change Projections A probabilistic approach
Median value (50%)
Probability of change
Median value (50%)
10% 90%
33% 67%“Likely”
range
1 2 3 4 5
Change in temperature (say)
“Very Likely” range
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Which Climate?
ProCLiP: London summer mean daily max temp
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Design your way out of the problem?
Gale and Snowdon
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Design your way out of the problem?
Gale and Snowdon
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Design your way out of the problem?
Triangle Architects
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Design your way out of the problem?
Ground cooling with Ground cooling with
solar assisted extract
Triangle Architects
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Cooling tipping point Action or reaction?
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