Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2011

Conservative Conference 2011Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

Is 2015 in the bag?

Reasons to be cheerful

4

37%

13%

35%

2010 General Election

Although Labour have a lead, you have broadly kept your core supportHow would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5Labour’s support has mainly come from dissatisfied LibDems

Base: British adults 18+ voting/with voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Election/Monitor aggregates

6And satisfaction is falling – though not unusually soHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Net

sat

isfie

d

1992

19831987

1997

2001

2005

20101979

General Election

Cameron is a strong leader

8Half are dissatisfied with his performance –though again that’s not unusualHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

MAJOR THATCHER

BLAIR

BROWN

CAMERON

9

Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011

59%

47%

45%

54%

57%

39%

57%

37%

24%

38%

52%

43%

33%

37%

31%

22%

31%

49%

58%

37%

33%

MilibandCameron

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Likeable

Clegg

Has sound judgement

Puts the interest of the country above those of his own party

Has a clear vision for Britain

And he leads on key Prime Ministerial qualities

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10

63%

52%

43%

41%

52%

52%

MilibandCameron

(although also seen as most out of touch – as was Blair…)I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Clegg

Out of touch with ordinary people

More style than substance

11

50%

44%

50%

50%

34%

38%

45%

30%

23%

Labour partyConservative party

And the party is also seen as most fit to govern….

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…



Has a good team of leaders

Liberal Democrat party

Fit to govern

12But also some negatives – you are seen as extreme

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…


Keeps its promises

Will promise anything to win votes

Divided

Extreme

Looks after the interests of people like me

Out of date

24%

64%

49%

28%

32%

42%

24%

64%

55%

22%

41%

45%

16%

65%

65%

16%

32%

41%

Labour partyConservative party Liberal Democrat party

Potential banana skins

1. The economy

14

Economy

Unemployment

The economy is the number one issue

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Crime

ImmigrationNHS

Europe

15The British are among the world’s leading pessimists…Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

*Note that the total global average does not include this month’s two ad-hoc countries: Greece and Ireland. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor, 19,755 online interviews with16/18–64 yr olds August 2011

16

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011

Very concerned

Don’t know

Not very concerned

Fairly concerned

Not at all concerned

Widespread concern about the effects of cuts

And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?


17

It is better to cut spending more slowly, to reduce the impact on public services and the economy

It is important to cut spending quicklyeven if this means immediate job losses, because it will be better for the economy in the long term

Neither

Don’t know

March 2011

And most prefer cuts to be slow rather than fast

And which of these comes closest to your opinion about how the government goes about reducing the deficit?

Base:1,000 British adults 18+, 11-13 March 2011 Source: Economist/Ipsos MORI

18And yet you do hold the lead on the number one issueWhich party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

33%

23%

8%

Why no party won the GE outright?

19…and will get some credit if it improves

If the British economy improves in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly responsible?

Base: 505 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

The Conservative Party

The Liberal Democrat Party

The state of the global economy

Conservatives and Lib Dems together

The previous Labour government

The banks

Don’t know

Other

33%

20- But share the blame if it gets worse

If the British economy gets worse in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly to blame?

Base: 503 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

27%The Conservative Party

The Liberal Democrat Party

The state of the global economy

Conservatives and Lib Dems together

The previous Labour government

The banks

Don’t know

Other

2. The Coalition

22Brits haven’t fallen in love with the idea of coalitionsDo you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party achieved an overall majority?

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+ Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Good thingDon’t know

Bad thing

May 2010

Good thingDon’t know

Bad thing

April 2011

23Tensions in the Coalition?

From what you know so far, which of these comes closes to your view?

Base: 1000 British adults 18+, 15th-17th April 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters Political Monitor

The new government is a genuine coalition in which decisions are made jointly between the Conservatives and the Liberal DemocratsThe Conservatives are making most of the decisions in the new government

Don’t knowNeither

Con voters in 2010

LibDem voters in

2010

3. Still the nasty party?

25The party is the most disliked….

Base: 1,162 British adults 18+, 21st - 24th January 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative LibDemLabour

Like the party

Don’t like the party

26

Conservatives

Labour

March 2010

Conservatives

Labour

June 2011

Debate on reform didn’t help trust on the NHS

Which party do you think has the best policies on health care, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

March 2010 - Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th - 22nd June 2010June 2011 - Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 17th - 19th June 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

27

Will hit rich people hardest

Will affect everyone equally

Don’t Know

Will hit poor people hardest

People don’t think ‘we are all in it together’

Do you think that the government’s plans to reduce the national deficit will hit rich people or poor people hardest, or will they affect everyone equally?

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th - 13th March 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

28

27%

46%

42%

37%

22%

22%

25%

28%

10%

7%

6%

8%

Labour partyConservative party

While you have your traditional strengths….

Which party do you trust most to… the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?


Restore faith in the political system

Liberal Democrat party

Encourage individuals to take responsibility for themselves

Preserve law and order

Promote family values

29

22%

20%

23%

28%

34%

39%

13%

18%

11%

So Labour has theirs…..

Which party do you trust most to…the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?


Heal the divisions in British society

Be fair to all sections of society

Give children and young people a good start in life

Labour partyConservative party Liberal Democrat party

30

WomenMen

Keeps its promises


Has a good team of leaders

Looks after the interests of people like me

Fit to govern

And women are particularly critical – less likely to mention good points…..I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the Conservative party?


31

Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011

WomenMen

Will promise anything to win votes

Divided

Extreme

Out of date

…and more likely to mention negative ones

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the Conservative party?


32Reasons to be cheerful?

Credible as party of government, best leader, and traditional strengths – appealing to heads rather than hearts right for this time?

Despite concerns, people still trust you to make the decisions on the economy (so far)

But all depends on the economy: if it gets worse and cuts really start to bite – or even if it just takes a long time - what other positives do you have to offer?

Thank youBen Page, Ipsos [email protected] 7347 3000

Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Conservative Party Conference 2011

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