ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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27 MAY 2018

BEYOND AWACS: THE NEED FOR POLITICAL OWNERSHIP AND ENGAGEMENT

NATO PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY

MR. ROB MURRAY

Head of SectionISR, Land, and Maritime

NATO HQ Defence Investment

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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27 MAY 2018

VIDEO PLACEHOLDER

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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GLOBAL CONTEXT

WARSAW SUMMIT DECLARATION

“NATO AWACS will continue to be modernised and extended in service until 2035.

By 2035, the Alliance needs to have a follow-on capability to the E-3 AWACs.

Based on high-level military requirements, we have decided to collectively start the process of defining options for future NATO surveillance and control capabilities.”

- Allied Heads of State and Government

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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GLOBAL CONTEXT

PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY DIRECTION

“The Assembly … URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic alliance … to swiftly define sustainable options for a follow-on capability to NATO AWACS to take the first step towards avoiding a future capability shortfall.”

- Resolution 434, 2016 policy recommendations of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly

“As a follow-on capability is essential, time short, and costs significant, the Rapporteur urges the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the STC in particular to pay close attention to this process as it unfolds.”

- 174 STC 16 E bis, The Future of Allied ISR

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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PROGRAMMATIC OVERVIEW – LONG TERM

2035 IS NOT AS FAR AS IT SEEMS…

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Future

NATOis here * hypothetical; based on average 10 year duration to procure/field

airborne systems, assuming off-the-shelf product with no prototyping

Essential activities to define requirements, evaluate

options, and select solution

Procurement OperationsConcept Stage

Warsaw Declaration

Procurement Contract*

Operate New Capability

Pre-Concept

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL PROGRAMMATIC OVERVIEW – NEAR TERM

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Concept Stage

What do we need? What do we not know about what we need?

What’s the best solution for NATO’s needs?

Who’s providing what?

UP TO 90 MEUR IN INDUSTRIAL STUDIES

DECISIVE MOMENT TO SHAPE DIRECTION

OF TRAVEL

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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RECENT PROGRESS

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Initial ‘system of systems’ blueprint delivered within scope, schedule, and cost

Permanent governance framework approved and activatedClear national oversight and accountability for requirements, resources, and programme direction

Building dialogue and relationships with industry• 107 companies represented at AFSC Industry Day on 10 April• Transatlantic ‘rapid reaction’ industry team active and supporting

Bottom line: all activities authorised, funded, underway, and on track

Four supporting studies underway, providing generic background information on:• Human/Machine Interfaces• Surveillance Technology and Threats• Information Assurance• Radio Spectrum Management

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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INCENTIVES

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AFSC is relevant• Developing capability beyond all national planning horizons• Evaluating emerging tech to meet long-term requirements

AFSC is transatlantic• E-3 retirement a common dilemma for NATO, US, FR, and UK• North American and European industry involved from the start

AFSC is potentially valuable• NATO Alliance Ground Surveillance:1

• 1.2 BEUR acquisition• 1.52 BEUR through-life cost• 2.72 BEUR total

• NATO AWACS:2

• 7.7 BUSD acquisition (1977)• 1.5 BUSD Near-Term Modernisation (1988)• 1.9 BUSD Mid-Term Modernisation (1996)• 951 MUSD Follow-On Upgrade Programme (2010)• 1 BUSD Final Lifetime Extension Programme (2018)• 13 BUSD total

1. Based on AGS Practical Funding Solution in 2011 year EUR, assuming 20 year projected lifetime and no upgrades.2. Based on MMOU estimates / cost ceilings and adjusted for inflation.

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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GLOBAL CONTEXT

PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY DIRECTION

“The Assembly … URGES member governments and parliaments of the North Atlantic alliance … to swiftly define sustainable options for a follow-on capability to NATO AWACS to take the first step towards avoiding a future capability shortfall.”

- Resolution 434, 2016 policy recommendations of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly

“As a follow-on capability is essential, time short, and costs significant, the Rapporteur urges the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the STC in particular to pay close attention to this process as it unfolds.”

- 174 STC 16 E bis, The Future of Allied ISR

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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SO WHAT?

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IMMINENT DECISIONS REQUIRE POLITICAL OWNERSHIP AND ENGAGEMENT TO ENSURE AFSC DELIVERS THE RIGHT CAPABILITY, AT THE RIGHT TIME, FOR THE RIGHT PRICE

• National expert kick-off meeting, 4-5 June, Luxembourg

• NATO Defence Ministers meeting, 7-8 June, Brussels

• Next AFSC governance meeting, 11-12 June, Brussels

• NATO Summit, 11-12 July, Brussels

• Study objectives due Oct 2018

• Phase 1 final report due Dec 2018

ALLIANCE FUTURESURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL

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POINTS OF CONTACT

Mr. Rob MURRAY

HeadISR, Land, and Maritime

NATO HQ Defence Investment

murray.robert@hq.nato.int+3227075684

Mr. Matthew GILLIS

Deputy Head and AFSC SecretaryISR, Land, and Maritime

NATO HQ Defence Investment

gillis.matthew@hq.nato.int+3227073949