Better Power for Health:Better Power for Health:Healthy Public Policy and Sustainable Healthy Public Policy and Sustainable

Energy Energy in Thai Power Sectorin Thai Power Sector

Dr. Decharut SukkumnoedDr. Decharut SukkumnoedFaculty of Economics, Kasetsart Faculty of Economics, Kasetsart

UniversityUniversityHealthy Public Policy FoundationHealthy Public Policy Foundation

The Inspiration of The Inspiration of the Studythe Study

Note: The study period is from Note: The study period is from September 2003 to September 2006 and September 2003 to September 2006 and

submitted in April 2007submitted in April 2007

Growing Conflicts from Power Growing Conflicts from Power Plant ProjectsPlant Projects

Growing Concerns on Health Growing Concerns on Health Impacts Impacts

from Power Generationfrom Power Generation

Direct health impacts from air pollution

Loss of livelihood and food security

Healthier choices are Healthier choices are availableavailable

Source: Extern-E Project, Hunt 2004

HIA Development HIA Development in Thailand 2000-2007in Thailand 2000-2007

Academic Papers

People’s Need

Draft of National Health Act

Learning Practices

Policy actions

HIA Institutionalization in HIA Institutionalization in ThailandThailand

Our Firm Ground NowOur Firm Ground Now The 10The 10thth National Economic and Social National Economic and Social

Development Plan (2007-2011)Development Plan (2007-2011) The National Health Act 2007The National Health Act 2007

People have rights to ask for HIA and People have rights to ask for HIA and participate in HIA process of any public participate in HIA process of any public policiespolicies

The New Constitution 2007The New Constitution 2007 Section 67 Any projects And activities that Section 67 Any projects And activities that

may cuase severe impacts on environment, may cuase severe impacts on environment, human health, and quality of life cannot be human health, and quality of life cannot be done without conducting environmental done without conducting environmental and health impact assessment and health impact assessment

IntroductionIntroduction Many impacts from power plant Many impacts from power plant

projects, and not determine by projects, and not determine by each stand-alone decision-making each stand-alone decision-making processprocess

Power Development PlanPower Development Plan Master Plan of 12-15 years for all new Master Plan of 12-15 years for all new

power plants according to long-term power plants according to long-term power demand forecastpower demand forecast

Energy options: fuel, technology, Energy options: fuel, technology, capacity, construction areacapacity, construction area

Lignite mining, gas pipeline, Lignite mining, gas pipeline, transmission expansion, etc.transmission expansion, etc.

Power Development Plan Power Development Plan (PDP) (PDP)

as a Policy Options as a Policy Options Power Development Plan is the EGAT’s Power Development Plan is the EGAT’s

long-term investment plan (10-15 long-term investment plan (10-15 years) which determinesyears) which determines Installed capacity required for Thai power Installed capacity required for Thai power

systemsystem Power technologies will be investedPower technologies will be invested Fuel-mix for power generationFuel-mix for power generation Market access for IPPs and SPPsMarket access for IPPs and SPPs

The PDP for the study is PDP2004 The PDP for the study is PDP2004 (2004-2015) which promote more (2004-2015) which promote more natural gas in the fuel-mixnatural gas in the fuel-mix

The problems of the PDP The problems of the PDP processprocess

No participation in planning and decision-No participation in planning and decision-making process - the parliament, senate, making process - the parliament, senate, independent org., consumer groups, mass independent org., consumer groups, mass mediamedia

Limited goal of energy security and utilities’ Limited goal of energy security and utilities’ least costleast cost

Always too high power demand forecastAlways too high power demand forecast Limited to large-scale conventional power Limited to large-scale conventional power

plant - coal, gas, dam.plant - coal, gas, dam. Many dead-lock social conflicts at project Many dead-lock social conflicts at project

levellevel

Power Development Power Development Planning in Thailand: Planning in Thailand:

PDP2007 by Ministry of PDP2007 by Ministry of EnergyEnergy Demand forecast Demand forecast

for the next 15 for the next 15 yearsyears

Fuel optionsFuel options Gas, coal, nuclear, Gas, coal, nuclear,

renewables, etc.renewables, etc. Least-cost Least-cost

planningplanning Public hearingPublic hearing Decision-makingDecision-making

กำ�� ลั�งกำ�รผลัตใ หม่�ที่��ถู�กำบรรจุ� ใ นแผน PDP2007 (MW)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

L1 B1 H1 L2 B2 H2 L3 B3 H3

SPP Nuclear Gas Coal Gas Turbine Import

Systematic Over-estimation of Systematic Over-estimation of DemandDemand

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

MW

Pea

k D

eman

d

Jun-93

Dec-94

Oct-95

Apr-96 (High)

Oct 96 (Base)

Jun 97 (Low)

Sep 97 (Very Low)

Sep 98 (RER)

Sep 98 (MER)

Feb-01

ส.ค.-06

Jan 04 (MEG)

Apr 06 Base

ACTUAL

Jun-93

Dec-94

Oct-95

Apr-96 (High)

Oct 96 (Base)

Jun 97 (Low)

Sep 97 (Very Low)

Sep 98 (MER)

Feb-01

ส.ค.-06

Jan 04 (MEG)

Apr 06 Base

ACTUAL

ม่.ค.-07

21,064 22,586 23,902 25,073 26,426 27,733 29,208 30,743 32,342 34,026 35,790 37,624 39,540 41,536 43,629 45,791

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

30001985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

MW

Increase/year Trend

Historic trend

Trend of Jan 2007 Forecast

Past period (actual data) Jan 07 forecast period

Problematic AssumptionProblematic Assumption

ที่��ม่�: ชื่��นชื่ม่ สง��ร�ศร� กำร�เซน 2550,

Energy Options:The assumptions on fuel prices of PDP

2007

Notes : (1–3) PTT 31 Jan. 07 55( USD/BBL) : ( 4 ) Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand : 5 5 5 Australian Bureau of Agri. and Res. Economics + Transportation cost 15 USD/Ton : (6) Ux Consulting Company January 2007

Gas: increase 3.6% in 15 year

Lignite: Increase

47%

Imported coal:

Increase 4%

Oil&Nuclear: Same price in the

next 15 year

Energy Options: Increase Energy Options: Increase of the fuel costof the fuel cost

The import price of The import price of energy energy (unit: 1000 Baht/Ton Oil (unit: 1000 Baht/Ton Oil Equi.)Equi.)

FuelFuel 19991999 20052005 IncreaIncrease se ((%)%)

Crude Crude oiloil

4.854.85 15.6115.61 221.9221.9

Natural Natural gasgas

3.153.15 6.916.91 119.6119.6

CoalCoal 1.931.93 2.842.84 47.247.2

Reference: Energy Report of Thailand, Dept. of Alt. Energy Dev. and Energy Conservation

Fast Growing inFast Growing in Renewable Energy Development Renewable Energy Development

2537

2538

2539

2540

2541

2542

2543

2544

2545

2546

2547

2548

2549

2550

เสนอข

ายไฟ

ฟา ขายเข�าระบบ

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

MW

Year

กำ��ลั�งกำ�รผลัตตดต�#งแลัะกำ��ลั�งกำ�รผลัตที่��ข�ยเข'�ระบบของผ�'ผลัตไฟฟ+�จุ�กำพลั�งง�นหม่�นเวี�ยนขน�ดเลั.กำแลัะเลั.กำม่�กำ

ข�ยเข'�ระบบ กำ��ลั�งกำ�รผลัต

Energy Options: Energy Options: Costs of each Costs of each optionoption

Fuel OptionsFuel Options Cost (Baht/kWh)Cost (Baht/kWh)

NuclearNuclear 2.082.08

CoalCoal 2.112.11

Natural gasNatural gas 2.252.25

OilOil ~3.5~3.5

WindWind ~5~5

SolarSolar 1111

Advertisements by Ministry of Energy, Feb.-Apr. 2007

Key Concerns on the nine Key Concerns on the nine PDP OptionsPDP Options But why all But why all

renewables are renewables are fixed at only fixed at only 1,700 MW in all 1,700 MW in all options?options?

Why include Why include nuclear of 4,000 nuclear of 4,000 MW in all options?MW in all options?

Who set these Who set these options and what options and what are the impacts of are the impacts of each option?each option?

L = Low Growth B = Base Forecast H = High Growth1=“Least-Cost” 2=“Feasible Coal Projects” 3=“LNG + More

import”

กำ�� ลั�งกำ�รผลัตใ หม่�ที่��ถู�กำบรรจุ� ใ นแผน PDP2007 (MW)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

L1 B1 H1 L2 B2 H2 L3 B3 H3

SPP Nuclear Gas Coal Gas Turbine Import

The Public Hearings on The Public Hearings on PDP2007PDP2007

The Ministry of Energy arranged the The Ministry of Energy arranged the Public Hearing on 19 Feb. 2007 at a Public Hearing on 19 Feb. 2007 at a hotel in Bangkokhotel in Bangkok

The potentially-affected local people The potentially-affected local people turned up of around 400 persons and turned up of around 400 persons and the Minister cancel the Hearingthe Minister cancel the Hearing

MoE arranged another Public MoE arranged another Public Hearing on 2 April 2007 in the Thai Hearing on 2 April 2007 in the Thai Army Club with armed soldiers ‘for Army Club with armed soldiers ‘for security reason’!security reason’!

NGOs, academics, and the local NGOs, academics, and the local people boycotted the Hearingpeople boycotted the Hearing

No Consideration on CO2 No Consideration on CO2 emission in PDP2007emission in PDP2007

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

2535 2536 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548

Year

CO2 Emission of Thai Energy Sector 1992-2005

Reference: Energy Report of Thailand, Dept. of Alt. Energy Dev. and Energy Conservation

หมายเหตุ� 1. ใช้�สมมตุ�ฐานว่�าตุ�นทุ�นร�อยละ 124. ของค่�าไฟฟามาจากธุ�รก�จสายส�ง 2. ใช้�สมมตุ�ฐานว่�าตุ�นทุ�นร�อยละ 145 ของค่�าไฟฟามาจากธุ�รก�จจ!าหน�าย 3 . ค่�า CO2 ทุ"# 10 ย$โร/ตุ&น

4. ค่�า Externality ตุามการศึ(กษา Extern E ของสหภาพย�โรป และน!ามาปร&บลดตุามค่�า GDP ตุ�อห&ว่ของไทุย 5. การศึ(กษาของ World Bank 2005 6. ตุามระเบ"ยบ SPP 7. ทุ"#มา : กฟผ. 8 . Cost of liability protection, Journal “Regulation” 2002 – 2003

Options Cost estimation (Baht per kWh)

ผล�ตุ ส�ง1 จ!าหน�าย2 CO2 3 ผลกระทุบ

สว่ล.อ0#น ๆ 4 ผล

กระทุบ ส&งค่ม

รว่ม

DSM 0.50 – 1.505 - - - - - 0.50 -1.50

Cogeneration(PES > 10%)

2.60 6 - 0.44 0.08 0.71 - 3.83

VSPP(Renewable

energies)

ค่�าไฟฟาขายส�ง(~ 3) +Adder

(0.3 – 8)

- 0.44 - 0 – 0.63 0 – ตุ!#า 3.3 – 11.0

CCGT 2.25 7 0.37 0.44 0.09 0.79 ตุ!#า – ปานกลาง

3.93

Coal 2.11 7 0.37 0.44 0.15 2.76 ส$ง 5.82

Nuclear 2.08 7 0.37 0.44 - 0.15 + 1.008 ส$ง - ส$งมาก 4.04

No consideration of externalities and total No consideration of externalities and total costcost

IntroductionIntroduction Many impacts from power plant Many impacts from power plant

projects, and not determine by projects, and not determine by each stand-alone decision-making each stand-alone decision-making processprocess

Power Development PlanPower Development Plan Master Plan of 12-15 years for all new Master Plan of 12-15 years for all new

power plants according to long-term power plants according to long-term power demand forecastpower demand forecast

Energy options: fuel, technology, Energy options: fuel, technology, capacity, construction areacapacity, construction area

Lignite mining, gas pipeline, Lignite mining, gas pipeline, transmission expansion, etc.transmission expansion, etc.

Power Development Plan Power Development Plan (PDP) (PDP)

as a Policy Options as a Policy Options Power Development Plan is the EGAT’s Power Development Plan is the EGAT’s

long-term investment plan (10-15 long-term investment plan (10-15 years) which determinesyears) which determines Installed capacity required for Thai power Installed capacity required for Thai power

systemsystem Power technologies will be investedPower technologies will be invested Fuel-mix for power generationFuel-mix for power generation Market access for IPPs and SPPsMarket access for IPPs and SPPs

The PDP for the study is PDP2004 The PDP for the study is PDP2004 (2004-2015) which promote more (2004-2015) which promote more natural gas in the fuel-mixnatural gas in the fuel-mix

The strategic HIAThe strategic HIA

The Strategic Impact AssessmentThe Strategic Impact Assessment

Public discussions, Social learning process, Public discussions, Social learning process,

Policy implications, Policy influencePolicy implications, Policy influence

Concepts of the strategic Concepts of the strategic HIA HIA

Broad perspective HIABroad perspective HIA Bio-medical VS. Socio-economic model of Bio-medical VS. Socio-economic model of

healthhealth Changes of the health determinantsChanges of the health determinants The Ecosystem Health Approach (IDRC)The Ecosystem Health Approach (IDRC)

Health

Environment Social

Economic

Impact IndicatorsImpact Indicators

Health

Environment- GHG emission- SO2, NO2- TSP- External cost

Social- no. new conv. proj.- concentration ratio- decentralization ratio- renewable energy share

Economic- investment- fuel cost- total cost- BOP burden

The methodology The methodology

Policy Options

PDP Options

Strategic Impacts

Overall Comparison

Planning Criteria

Coefficients of impact indicators

The potentials and The potentials and reference cases of REreference cases of RE

PDP-Renewables combines PDP-Renewables combines three types of alternativesthree types of alternatives

Cheaper SolutionsCheaper Solutions Revising demand forecasting with realistic Revising demand forecasting with realistic

assumptionassumption DSM = 2,400 MW (from 3,000 MW potential)DSM = 2,400 MW (from 3,000 MW potential)

Competitive SolutionsCompetitive Solutions Biomass energy = 2,700 MW (from 7,000 MW Biomass energy = 2,700 MW (from 7,000 MW

potential)potential) Biogas = 470 MW (from 900 MW potential)Biogas = 470 MW (from 900 MW potential) Micro-hydro = 300 MW (from 700 MW potential)Micro-hydro = 300 MW (from 700 MW potential) Industrial CHP 2,500 MW + re-powering of 2,800 MWIndustrial CHP 2,500 MW + re-powering of 2,800 MW

Expensive SolutionsExpensive Solutions Solar PV = 470 MW (from 5,000 MW potential)Solar PV = 470 MW (from 5,000 MW potential) Wind = 260 MW (from 1,600 MW potential)Wind = 260 MW (from 1,600 MW potential)

Scaling down Mae-Moh Lignite power plan by Scaling down Mae-Moh Lignite power plan by 50%50%

Comparison of Three Policy Comparison of Three Policy Options (Power Development Options (Power Development

Plan: PDP)Plan: PDP)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

GWh

Gas Coal Renewable

Energy Generation and the Fuel Mix in Three PDP Options

DSM

Renewable

Import

Hydro

Oil

Coal

Natural gas

Methodology for Strategic Impact Methodology for Strategic Impact AssessmentAssessment

Three PDP Options with the differences in

- Demand forecasting

- Power technologies

- Fuel Mixes

Emission factors from life cycle assessment of different power technologies for Greenhouse gas, SO2, NOX, TSP, Mercury, and Non-methane VOC

Environmental Impacts

Co-efficient for healthy years of life loss (DALYs) from power plant emission

Co-efficient for mortality and morbidity (cases) from

different power technologies

Physical Health Impacts

Generation cost =Investment + O&M + fuel costs

-Distribution of GDP contribution and import burden

- Plus Externality Costs

Economic Impacts

The Eco-indicator approach

The Extern-E approach

A Cleaner Option (1):A Cleaner Option (1):Lower Greenhouse Gas Lower Greenhouse Gas

EmissionEmissionFigure 6.1

Greenhouse Gas Emission in Three PDP Options

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

year

Million

Ton

s of CO2 eq

uilva

lent

PDP Gas

PDP Coal

PDP Renewables

20% lower than PDP-Gas

35% lower than PDP-Coal

A Cleaner Option (2):A Cleaner Option (2):Lower Air Pollution ProblemLower Air Pollution Problem

Figure 6.2

NOx Emission in Three PDP Options

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Tons

PDP Gas

PDP Coal

PDP Renewables

17% lower than PDP-Gas

33% lower than PDP-Coal

A Healthier Choice (1):A Healthier Choice (1):An Extern-E ApproachAn Extern-E Approach

Figure 6.9 Total Chronic Mortality from Air Pollution in Three PDP Options

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

Year

Case

s

Gas

Coal

Renewable300 lives can be save compared to PDP-Gas and more than 1,000 lives compared to PDP-Coal

A Healthier Choice (2):A Healthier Choice (2):An Extern-E ApproachAn Extern-E Approach

Figure 6.8 Total Acute Hospital Admissions from Air Pollution

in Three PDP Options

-

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Case

Gas

Coal

Renewables23% lower than PDP-Gas

37% lower than PDP-Coal

A Healthier Choice (3):A Healthier Choice (3):An Eco-Indicator ApproachAn Eco-Indicator Approach

30,162

51,243

34,111

70,065

22,349

42,029

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

DALYs

PDP Gas PDP Coal Renewables

PDP Options

Figure 1 Health Impacts of Three PDP Options

in 2015 Disability-adjusted Life Years

From Air Pollution

From Climate Change

18% lower than PDP-Gas

40% lower than PDP-Coal

Economic Benefits (1):Economic Benefits (1):Generation cost = 5.2% cheaperGeneration cost = 5.2% cheaper

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Million THB

PDP-Gas PDP-Coal PDP-Renewables

PDP Options

Figure 2

Generation Cost of Three PDP Options in 2015

Fuel CostO&M CostCapital Cost

Economic Benefits (2):Economic Benefits (2):8.7% lower import burden and8.7% lower import burden and2.7% higher GDP contribution2.7% higher GDP contribution

Figure 3

GDP Contribution and BOP Effects of Three PDP Options

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

PDP-Gas PDP-Coal PDP-Renewables

Pre

sent

Valu

e

(in M

illion T

HB

)

GDP Contribution

BOP Effects

Overall Economic Benefit (3):Overall Economic Benefit (3):Overall 108.7 billion THB can be Overall 108.7 billion THB can be

savedsaved

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Million THB

PDP-Gas PDP-Coal PDP-Renewables

PDP Options

Figure 3

Generation and External Costs of Three PDP Options in 2015

External Cost

Fuel Cost

O&M Cost

Capital Cost

Social Benefits from Job Social Benefits from Job CreationCreation

17,611 jobs more in 2015 17,611 jobs more in 2015 Figure 6.12 Employment Effect from Three PDP Options

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

Year

Man

-Year

PDP Gas

PDP Coal

PDP Renewable

Political Benefit:Political Benefit:Achieving government targetAchieving government target

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

PDP-Gas PDP-Coal PDP-Renewable

2005

2010

2015Government Target 6% renewable power in 2011

Sensitivity Analysis I:Sensitivity Analysis I:VS Cleaner Fossil-Fuelled VS Cleaner Fossil-Fuelled

TechnologyTechnology Environmental ImpactsEnvironmental Impacts

PDP-Renewables would be the best option, until PDP-Renewables would be the best option, until 65-70% of emission reduction (except 65-70% of emission reduction (except COCO22) in all ) in all fossil-fuelled technologiesfossil-fuelled technologies

With 20% reduction in biomass and biogas With 20% reduction in biomass and biogas emission, the confirmation level will increase to emission, the confirmation level will increase to 75% 75%

Health ImpactsHealth Impacts Extern-E approach – PDP-Renewables would yield Extern-E approach – PDP-Renewables would yield

the best result up to 75% health impact reduction the best result up to 75% health impact reduction from fossil fuelled-technologiesfrom fossil fuelled-technologies

Eco-indicator approach - PDP-Renewables would Eco-indicator approach - PDP-Renewables would be the best option, until 70-75% of emission be the best option, until 70-75% of emission reduction (except reduction (except COCO22) in all fossil-fuelled ) in all fossil-fuelled technologiestechnologies

Sensitivity Analysis II:Sensitivity Analysis II:Lower Fuel Cost RiskLower Fuel Cost Risk

Figure 4

Generation Cost of three PDP Options in Three Different Price Situations

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

20032004200520062007200820092010 20112012201320142015

Year

Mil

lio

n T

HB

PDP-Gas

PDP-Coal

PDP-Renewables

PDP-Gas (situation2)

PDP-Coal (situation2)

PDP-Renewables (situation2)

PDP-Gas (situation3)

PDP-Coal (situation3)

PDP-Renewables (situation3)

Sensitivity III:Sensitivity III:Higher Demand GrowthHigher Demand Growth

Coping Higher Demand GrowthCoping Higher Demand Growth 10% more investment in renewables and DSM10% more investment in renewables and DSM Delaying plan to scaling down lignite power Delaying plan to scaling down lignite power

plantsplants Install 2,100 MW CCGT by 2015 Install 2,100 MW CCGT by 2015

PDP-Renewables still provides the best PDP-Renewables still provides the best outcomesoutcomes 19% lower greenhouse gas emission 19% lower greenhouse gas emission 14% reduction in chronic mortality14% reduction in chronic mortality 3.1% lower generation cost3.1% lower generation cost 2.3% higher GDP contribution2.3% higher GDP contribution

PDP-Renewables is a flexible optionPDP-Renewables is a flexible option

Sensitivity Analysis IV:Sensitivity Analysis IV:Low Demand GrowthLow Demand Growth

PDP-Gas may decide to lower demand PDP-Gas may decide to lower demand prediction and its future installed prediction and its future installed capacitycapacity

Therefore, PDP-Gas (low) would reduce Therefore, PDP-Gas (low) would reduce its negative impactsits negative impacts

However, PDP-Renewables still yield the However, PDP-Renewables still yield the best results in environmental, health, best results in environmental, health, economic, and social impactseconomic, and social impacts

Confirm that, not only lower demand Confirm that, not only lower demand forecasting, the contribution of forecasting, the contribution of renewable energy is very crucial for the renewable energy is very crucial for the healthier solutionhealthier solution

Conclusions from Impact Conclusions from Impact AnalysisAnalysis

PDP-Renewables is the cleaner solutionPDP-Renewables is the cleaner solution PDP-Renewables is the healthier optionPDP-Renewables is the healthier option PDP-Renewables is a socially benefitPDP-Renewables is a socially benefit PDP-Renewables is a economically feasible PDP-Renewables is a economically feasible

choicechoice PDP-Renewables is a more secure and PDP-Renewables is a more secure and

flexible investment optionflexible investment option PDP-Renewables can stabilize and lower PDP-Renewables can stabilize and lower

negative impacts from power generation negative impacts from power generation and can be a good starting point for more and can be a good starting point for more renewable futurerenewable future

Real-life Difficulties (1):Real-life Difficulties (1):Require new investment Require new investment

schemescheme

-

100 , 000

200 , 000

300 , 000

400 , 000 500 , 000

600 , 000

700 , 000

800 , 000

Million THB

PDP - Gas PDP - Coal PDP - Renewables

PDP Options

Figure 6 Investment Requirement Classified by Investors

DSM

SPPs & VSPPs

IPPs

EGAT

Real-life difficulties (2):Real-life difficulties (2):Unfair pricing regulationUnfair pricing regulation

PrinciplePrinciple: “the price for renewable power : “the price for renewable power should at least equal to the avoided cost of should at least equal to the avoided cost of electricity on the lower voltage grid plus a electricity on the lower voltage grid plus a premium reflecting the renewables’ social and premium reflecting the renewables’ social and environmental benefitsenvironmental benefits

PracticePractice: 42% of renewable power producers : 42% of renewable power producers get the lower rate than EGAT avoid costget the lower rate than EGAT avoid cost

PracticePractice: Only 17% get the actual subsidy, but : Only 17% get the actual subsidy, but only for the first five years of their operations only for the first five years of their operations

Real-life Difficulties (3):Real-life Difficulties (3):Grid AccessingGrid Accessing

PrinciplePrinciple: All power producers should : All power producers should have equal right in accessing to the gridhave equal right in accessing to the grid

PracticePractice: Bottle-neck in the approval : Bottle-neck in the approval process makes delay in renewable process makes delay in renewable investmentinvestment

PracticePractice: Utilities require unnecessarily : Utilities require unnecessarily expensive interconnection investmentexpensive interconnection investment

PracticePractice: After 1999, Industrial CHP does : After 1999, Industrial CHP does not allow to access to the grid, except not allow to access to the grid, except Utilities’ own subsidiaries. Utilities’ own subsidiaries.

Real-Life Difficulties (4):Real-Life Difficulties (4):Monopoly Governance Monopoly Governance

StructureStructure Four monopoly utilities control 90% of Four monopoly utilities control 90% of

turnover in power industry.turnover in power industry. EGAT and PTT (gas company) set up EGAT and PTT (gas company) set up

their own largest IPPs, to play as private their own largest IPPs, to play as private sector.sector.

These utilities have their own authorities These utilities have their own authorities in approving power purchasing contract in approving power purchasing contract and requiring technical improvement.and requiring technical improvement.

Thai government has a clear policy for Thai government has a clear policy for privatization and eager for more profit privatization and eager for more profit from these utilitiesfrom these utilities

Real-life Difficulties (5):Real-life Difficulties (5):Protect their vested interestsProtect their vested interests

Figure 7 Fuel Market in 2015 In Three PDP Options

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Import El .

Oil&Diesel

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Coal

Lignite

Gas

Critical Reflections and Critical Reflections and Policy as a Social Learning Policy as a Social Learning

Process Process

How do the study contribute to How do the study contribute to actual policy changes? actual policy changes?

How can we learn from this How can we learn from this experience?experience?

Methodology for Influencing Methodology for Influencing and Reflecting Policy Changesand Reflecting Policy Changes

Three Renewable Energy Policy Workshops (July Three Renewable Energy Policy Workshops (July 2005)2005) The Energy Crisis and Energy Planning in ThailandThe Energy Crisis and Energy Planning in Thailand Renewable Energy from Strategy to RealityRenewable Energy from Strategy to Reality Good Governance in Renewable Energy DevelopmentGood Governance in Renewable Energy Development

Several Public Seminars and Press Conferences Several Public Seminars and Press Conferences (2005/6)(2005/6) An Assessment of Electricity Governance in Thailand An Assessment of Electricity Governance in Thailand Hidden Agenda of Energy Businesses in Power Hidden Agenda of Energy Businesses in Power

Development PlanningDevelopment Planning Journalist Trips and Reports Journalist Trips and Reports Reflecting actual policy changes (until September Reflecting actual policy changes (until September

2006)2006) Analyzing the key factors for changes (or un-changes)Analyzing the key factors for changes (or un-changes)

Various Policy Various Policy Communication ActivitiesCommunication Activities

Policy Outcomes Policy Outcomes of three years attempts (2004-of three years attempts (2004-

2006)2006) Desirable ChangesDesirable Changes

Stop EGAT privatization by the Supreme Administrative Stop EGAT privatization by the Supreme Administrative Court ruleCourt rule

Revising of Demand forecasting and PDP2004Revising of Demand forecasting and PDP2004 Stop RPS mechanism and introduce 7-years Adders for Stop RPS mechanism and introduce 7-years Adders for

renewable power producers based on different renewable power producers based on different renewable technologiesrenewable technologies

Expand VSPP scheme from 1 MW to 10 MW and re-open Expand VSPP scheme from 1 MW to 10 MW and re-open the market for CHP in 2006the market for CHP in 2006

(After the study) The independent regulator will be (After the study) The independent regulator will be established based the new Energy Act (2007)established based the new Energy Act (2007)

Undesirable Un-changesUndesirable Un-changes PDP2007 is not yet properly open for public PDP2007 is not yet properly open for public

participation, still no strategic impact assessment, and participation, still no strategic impact assessment, and renewable energy is not yet a real strategic optionrenewable energy is not yet a real strategic option

EGAT monopoly power structure remainsEGAT monopoly power structure remains

Reflections from the study:Reflections from the study:Policy changes are occurred Policy changes are occurred

becausebecause The public is adequately informed and understandThe public is adequately informed and understand

The Inconsistency of Logic (e.g., private monopoly = The Inconsistency of Logic (e.g., private monopoly = efficiency???)efficiency???)

The Logic of Inconsistency (e.g., private monopoly = The Logic of Inconsistency (e.g., private monopoly = private profit)private profit)

Thai public takes serious action against specific Thai public takes serious action against specific government proposal, such as EGAT privatization government proposal, such as EGAT privatization

The government faces with inevitable facts, such The government faces with inevitable facts, such as over-demand forecastingas over-demand forecasting

New policy actors, such as group of renewable New policy actors, such as group of renewable power producers, take the recommendations into power producers, take the recommendations into policy actions, as seen in supporting for feed-in policy actions, as seen in supporting for feed-in tariff tariff

Academic community can reach agreement in some Academic community can reach agreement in some policy recommendation, e.g. stop RPS mechanismpolicy recommendation, e.g. stop RPS mechanism

Reflections from the study:Reflections from the study:Limitation of Healthy Public Policy Limitation of Healthy Public Policy

and Public Deliberationand Public Deliberation Several policy process are still close in Several policy process are still close in

their practices, such as PDP2007their practices, such as PDP2007 Thai Government still controls the tempo Thai Government still controls the tempo

of policy process, including applying “non-of policy process, including applying “non-action” policyaction” policy(or NATO = No Action, Talk Only)(or NATO = No Action, Talk Only)

Unbalanced opportunities and influences Unbalanced opportunities and influences between different policy actors and between different policy actors and networks still remainnetworks still remain

Public communication channels and public Public communication channels and public attentions are highly competitive among attentions are highly competitive among different societal issuesdifferent societal issues

A Case of PDP 2007: A Case of PDP 2007: Nine Options with No (real) Nine Options with No (real)

AlternativesAlternatives Renewables contribute only Renewables contribute only

1,700 MW in all nine 1,700 MW in all nine options options

All nine options consist of All nine options consist of 4,000 MW nuclear energy 4,000 MW nuclear energy

No strategic impact No strategic impact assessment to support assessment to support decision-makingdecision-making

Only one public Only one public consultation with the consultation with the military controlmilitary control

The need to applyThe need to apply the real alternativesthe real alternatives strategic impact strategic impact

assessmentassessment governance evaluation governance evaluation

of PDP 2007 processof PDP 2007 process

กำ��ลั�งกำ�รผลัตใ หม่�ที่��ถู�กำบรรจุ� ใ นแผน PDP2007 (MW)

0

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L1 B1 H1 L2 B2 H2 L3 B3 H3

SPP Nuclear Gas Coal Gas Turbine Import

Integrated planning framework proposed to Integrated planning framework proposed to government and societygovernment and society

Limitations of the StudyLimitations of the Study The power development plan with 15 years plan is still The power development plan with 15 years plan is still

the short vision for long-term sustainable energy the short vision for long-term sustainable energy development.development.

Impact Assessment, based on coefficients of power Impact Assessment, based on coefficients of power technologies, cannot cope withtechnologies, cannot cope with Specific health impacts for Thailand’s geographical conditionsSpecific health impacts for Thailand’s geographical conditions Future uncertainties of technology and knowledge Future uncertainties of technology and knowledge

Focus on the value of “health” in policy process, Focus on the value of “health” in policy process, which, in reality, must be compete with other societal which, in reality, must be compete with other societal valuesvalues

Since policy process in an endless game, desirable Since policy process in an endless game, desirable policy changes cannot be seen or evaluate within policy changes cannot be seen or evaluate within three years time.three years time.

Therefore, this thesis does not provide the final Therefore, this thesis does not provide the final answer, but proof that the healthier option is possible answer, but proof that the healthier option is possible and beneficial. It can also be a good first step for and beneficial. It can also be a good first step for sustainable energy future.sustainable energy future.

Perspective on Better Power Perspective on Better Power for Healthfor Health

The policy process is an endless game, The policy process is an endless game, further policy deliberation are essential to further policy deliberation are essential to secure policy changessecure policy changes

The success of healthy public policy depends The success of healthy public policy depends on three dimensions of its better poweron three dimensions of its better power In In physical termsphysical terms, the “sustainable power” with , the “sustainable power” with

more renewable energy and energy efficiency is more renewable energy and energy efficiency is requiredrequired

In In political termspolitical terms, “more equal or balance power” , “more equal or balance power” among policy actors in policy process is essential among policy actors in policy process is essential to ensure all policy options will be fairly analyzed to ensure all policy options will be fairly analyzed and assessedand assessed

In In philosophical termsphilosophical terms, “the society’s wisdom , “the society’s wisdom power” in deliberating towards the right end power” in deliberating towards the right end through the ethically right means is also crucial through the ethically right means is also crucial for the implementation of the first two for the implementation of the first two dimensions of powerdimensions of power

Thank You Very Thank You Very MuchMuch