Better forecasts through incentivesbryce/cs97/f15/... · Watch Our Webinar on How Industries Are...

6
Prediction Markets Better forecasts through incentives...

Transcript of Better forecasts through incentivesbryce/cs97/f15/... · Watch Our Webinar on How Industries Are...

Page 1: Better forecasts through incentivesbryce/cs97/f15/... · Watch Our Webinar on How Industries Are Using Predictive Analytics Now! Business Analytics Predictive Analysis Business Intelligence

Prediction Markets

Better forecasts through incentives...

Page 2: Better forecasts through incentivesbryce/cs97/f15/... · Watch Our Webinar on How Industries Are Using Predictive Analytics Now! Business Analytics Predictive Analysis Business Intelligence

Network Games

How does your position in your social network affect...?● What products you adopt● How you vote

Page 3: Better forecasts through incentivesbryce/cs97/f15/... · Watch Our Webinar on How Industries Are Using Predictive Analytics Now! Business Analytics Predictive Analysis Business Intelligence

Security Games

How can authorities optimize limited resources to defend against potential terrorist attacks?

Page 4: Better forecasts through incentivesbryce/cs97/f15/... · Watch Our Webinar on How Industries Are Using Predictive Analytics Now! Business Analytics Predictive Analysis Business Intelligence

Ad Auctions

Search ads are sold by instantaneous auctions.

● What are the right rules for the auction?

● How should advertisers bid?

Page 5: Better forecasts through incentivesbryce/cs97/f15/... · Watch Our Webinar on How Industries Are Using Predictive Analytics Now! Business Analytics Predictive Analysis Business Intelligence

Computing Equilibria

Solving poker

Finding Nash equilibria is believed to be NP-intermediate (PPAD-completeness).

Worst-case-exponential may not be so bad.

Page 6: Better forecasts through incentivesbryce/cs97/f15/... · Watch Our Webinar on How Industries Are Using Predictive Analytics Now! Business Analytics Predictive Analysis Business Intelligence

Agent-Based ModelingWe can use simulation to study systems that are too complex for mathematical modeling.

How harmful is high- When are decentralizedfrequency trading? currencies viable?