Bet Sizing Tells

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By Ed Miller BET SIZING TELLS GET THE VIDEO AT

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Ed Miller's October 2014 video for Red Chip Poker

Transcript of Bet Sizing Tells

Page 1: Bet Sizing Tells

By Ed MillerBET SIZING TELLS

GET THE VIDEO AT

Page 2: Bet Sizing Tells

Bet-sizing tells are one of the most important tools I use in

l ive no-limit games.

I found out fairly recently by watching students play that many

don’t notice or use them well.

Learning to use bet-sizing tells correctly by itself can probably

help you move up a level. (They are very useful.)

WHAT ARE BET-SIZING TELLS?

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In no-limit hold’em , players choose their own bet sizes. Most

people choose their sizes either by rote, on a whim, or for a

reason that can be deduced by logic.

When players use logic that causes them to use two or more

dif ferent bet sizes in a given situation, they are giving away

tons of information.

It is extremely hard to balance ranges using multiple bet

sizes. In real l ive games, practically speaking, all such

scenarios are exploitable.

WHAT’S THE IDEA?

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Saying it again, because it’s worth thinking about. If your

opponent uses multiple bet sizes in a given situation, he is

exploitable.

In practice, players are not merely exploitable, but extremely

so. These players would be much harder to play against if they

chose a single bet size for each situation.

MULTIPLE BET SIZES ARE EXPLOITABLE

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Bet-sizing tells aren’t when a player has adjusted a bet size

for the action. For instance, if he raises to $25 after one

limper, but $40 after three.

Bet-sizing tells aren’t just a comparison of bet size to pot size.

“Oh that’s less than half pot. Weak!”

Bet-sizing tells aren’t 100% reliable.

WHAT BET-SIZING TELLS AREN’T

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Think of situations where a player will try to accomplish

dif ferent goals with dif ferent hand types.

For example, they might want to “protect” certain hands, but

“get max value” for others.

Or, they might want to “see where they’re at” with certain

hands, but proceed with confidence with others.

HOW TO SPOT POSSIBLE TELLS

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You raise preflop and someone calls out of the blinds. The

flop comes, and the blind player bets roughly half pot or less.

What’s going on? In this situation, the blind player would

assume that if he checks, you will l ikely bet. And if you bet, it

will probably be more than half pot.

With a truly strong hand, he would either want to check to let

you bet—or if he’s worried you’ll check back he would make a

normal-to-large bet.

He’s trying to “freeze” the action for cheap.

CLASSIC TELL #1

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Typically you will see top pair, no kicker or a unimproved

pocket pair or perhaps middle pair or a draw after this bet.

Most importantly, there will be few nutted hands in the range.

And the small bet usually indicates some willingness to fold.

This imbalance continues throughout the hand, since you

can’t add back the nutted hands.

CLASSIC TELL #1 (CONT.)

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You open for $20 from MP and the BB calls. Flop comes and

BB bets out $10-$25.

Flop comes AsQd4s. The bet will usually be Ax, mid pair l ike

99, or possibly Qx, 4x, or maybe a gutshot.

Very unlikely to be 44 or AQ (or AA or QQ). Also unlikely to be

A4 or Q4 because most people would check or bet bigger to

“protect” or “get value”

CLASSIC TELL #1 EXAMPLES

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Flop comes 7d5c2s.

You’re going to see a lot of 7x and 66 and 44. Also possible

are AJ, 5x, 2x, and some gutshots.

This is a pure “see where you’re at” bet most of the time. The

blind caught a piece and is trying to see if he’s good cheaply,

because he’s worried about winning a little or losing a lot.

CLASSIC TELL #1 MORE EXAMPLES

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In each case, a closer to pot-sized donk bet would make me

more worried about nutted hands. In particular, a pot-sized

donk bet on 742 could easily be two pair -plus.

It’s hard to balance a donk-betting strategy. It’s virtually

impossible to balance a donk-betting strategy when you are

using two or more bet sizes.

CLASSIC TELL #1 FINAL THOUGHTS

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In a multiway pot, on the turn, with draws on board, a small

out of turn bet.

This one is more specific, but it comes up, and it’s quite

reliable.

Why is this player betting out of turn? And why is the bet

small? It almost never adds up to a strong hand.

Can be a draw, top pair with a weak kicker, or another hand

that wants to “freeze” action.

CLASSIC TELL #2

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A player limps, and you make it $25. A player calls on the

button, both blinds call, and the limper calls. There’s $125 in

the pot and 5 players.

Flop is QdJd6h. Checked to you, you bet $80, and the BB and

l imper call. There’s $365 in the pot and 3 players.

Turn 9c. The BB checks, and the limper bets $80.

CLASSIC TELL #2 EXAMPLE

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Board is QdJd6h9c and the limper has just bet $80 into $365

out of turn.

This is a cheap ploy to freeze action, which all but rules out

straights, sets, and strong two-pair hands.

It could be that he has a queen and wants to avoid giving a

free card without really committing to the pot (with a big bet).

It could be that he has a draw of some sort and wants to set

his price at $80.

CLASSIC TELL #2 EXAMPLE (CONT.)

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You might wonder how often players reverse these bet-sizing

tells. Not often, for a simple reason—they usually work.

Players use these bets to freeze action because the ploy often

works.

Since a player rarely wants to freeze the action with a strong

hand, it’s generally just a bad idea to reverse the tell.

Better is just to avoid the tell-sized bet completely.

REVERSE TELL?

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Mentioned in a previous video.

In a multiway pot, an extra-large bet into a multiway pot.

This usually represents an attempt to protect a fairly strong

hand.

I reverse this tell by betting extra-large into these pots with c -

bets and semi-bluffs.

ANOTHER TELL I DO REVERSE

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A tight reg opens for $20 and gets two calls on the button and

one in the big blind.

The flop is QhTh6s. The blind checks, and the reg bets $100

into the $82 pot.

This will mostly be AQ, KK, or AA.

With stronger hands, they tend to bet a little less—maybe

$60—to encourage action.

With weaker hands, they tend to be much less—maybe $40 or

$50—to protect themselves against getting owned.

EXAMPLE OF THE REVERSIBLE TELL

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Your opponents’ bet sizing is a huge source of information.

They get to choose any size they want, which gives them just

enough rope to hang themselves with.

Every time your opponent bets, think about bet size. Think, “Is

there any type of hand this player would bet a dif ferent size

with?”

Very frequently, the answer is yes—between draws and

marginal made hands and monster hands, most players will

choose dif ferent sizes with some hands.

SPOTTING TELLS IN THE WILD

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This information is nearly always useful. Even if you can

eliminate just a single class of hands from your opponent’s

range, that’s often enough to tip your strategy one way or the

other.

SPOTTING TELLS IN THE WILD (CONT.)

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I know a lot of people say, “Don’t worry about your bet sizes.

Choose the ones that suit you best, because your opponents

aren’t paying attention.” I ’ve said it.

Be very careful with this advice. My view now is that

experienced live regs—at least the ones who aren’t degenerate

and half-braindead—use bet-sizing tells. They identify them,

and they act upon them.

In fact, many live regs play such a bad fundamental game that

only their ability to pick up on these tells (and other live

reads) keeps them in action.

Be careful who you expose your tells to.

A NOTE OF WARNING

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While you play, challenge yourself to decode opponent bet

sizes, and hold yourself accountable.

In hands you’re in, or not in, write down the action for any

pots with unusual bet sizes. Then try to guess what the bet

sizes mean.

If there’s a showdown, check your work against what you saw.

Learn from it.

PRACTICE TELLS