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Transcript of Best Free Commodity Market weekly Trading Tips

  • 30 JUNE 04 JULY 2014

    W E E K L Y

    R

    E

    P

    O

    R

    T

    Blow by Blow

    On

    Bullions,

    Base metals,

    Energy

    WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

  • MAJOR EVENTS Gold off the intraday high and trading sideways ahead of release of the German

    inflation and U.S. consumer sentiment data. Euro traded sideways on Friday, quoting

    near $1.3614, up 0.01% and US dollar index quoting at 80.24, down 0.04%.

    Gold slips as Fed official gives upbeat take on U.S. economy with Fed official calls

    weak Q1 economic growth rate an aberration. On another data, the U.S. personal

    income increased $58.8 billion or 0.4 percent in May, after surging 0.30% last month,

    according to the data released on yesterday by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The

    price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in May, the same increase as in April. The

    PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in May, the same

    increase as in April.

    COMEX August Gold trades at $1,317.40 a troy ounce, up $0.40 and Silver trades at

    $21.083 a troy ounce, down 0.079. Local Gold slipped tracking the weak global cues

    amid slightly strong local currency. MCX August contract trades at Rs 27,641, down Rs

    24 and Silver July quotes at Rs 44,501, down Rs 135. Indian rupee gained 0.01% at Rs

    60.11 mark. Brent crude capped the biggest weekly drop since March as the conflict in Iraq spared

    the countrys main oil-producing region.

    Iraqi forces held the Baiji refinery, the nations largest, after repelling the latest attack

    by Islamist militants. Fighting hasnt spread to the south, home to more than three-

    quarters of Iraqs oil output. Exports from OPECs second-largest producer will

    accelerate next month, according to Iraqs oil minister. Iraqi production appears to be

    safe for the time being. That makes the market stable.Brent for August settlement

    gained 9 cents to close at $113.30 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe

    exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 37 percent below the 100-day

    average. Prices dropped 1.3 percent this week, the biggest decline since the seven

    days ended March 21. WTI for August delivery fell 10 cents to $105.74 a barrel on the

    New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were down 1.4 percent this week. Volume was

    50 percent below the average. The U.S. benchmark crude was at a discount of $7.56

    to Brent, compared with $7.37 yesterday. Oil exports will witness a big increase, as

    recent events didnt reflect negatively on Iraqs crude output and exports.

    Brent Crude Heads

    for Biggest Weekly

    Drop Since April.

    Copper Cracks

    Amid Slow

    Demand From

    China.

    Cracks in Copper are resurfacing although the declines so far have been limited. The

    prices of MCX Copper are showing vulnerability to move beyond resistance levels of Rs

    422 and 423 for the second day in a row. Domestic prices are also been marred by the

    fact that the Chinese demand is slowing down. Financial deals probe on Chinese firms

    is rattling the markets.Banks in China are now not coming to support from financing

    due to the fact that the metal might have been used as collateral for taking multiple

    loans. This has increased the flow of Copper in world markets, while China which is the

    largest consumer of Copper has been showing derailment of demand. Meanwhile,

    news from Eurozone also imposed negative vibes on Copper. The report from

    European commission showed that the consumer confidence declined to a annual rate

    of -8 from -7.1. The expectations were that the fall would be 7.1. Last night, U.S.

    Department of Labor data showed that the number of individuals filing for initial

    jobless benefits in the week ending June 21 declined by 2,000 to 312,000 from the

    previous week's revised total of 314,000. On MCX, Copper June contract was last

    checked at Rs 419.35 per kg, down 0.24%. The prices have tested a high of Rs 421.85

    and a low of Rs 418.9 per kg. COMEX Copper futures for September expiry that has the

    highest volumes, showed a marginal decline and was trading at $ 3.17 per pound.

    Gold Sideways

    Ahead Of

    Consumer

    Sentiment Data.

  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

    DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

    June 30 7:15pm Chicago PMI 63.2 65.5

    7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.4% 0.4%

    July 01 5:30pm Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

    7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 57.5 57.5

    7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.4

    7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2%

    7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 48.9 47.7

    7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 60.0 60.0

    All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.5M 16.8M

    July 02 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 45.5%

    5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 206K 179K

    7:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.1% 0.7%

    8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M

    8:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

    July 03 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 211K 217K

    6:00pm Trade Balance -45.1B -47.2B

    6:00pm Unemployment Claims 310K 312K

    6:00pm Unemployment Rate 6.3% 6.3%

    6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%

    7:15pm Final Services PMI 61.2

    7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.2 56.3

    8:00pm Natural Gas Storage

    July 03 All Day Bank Holiday

  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    27400 27000 26500 28000 28350 28680

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    43850 42840 42000 45000 46050 47070

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD showed sideways

    movement traded around important

    resistance level i.e. 27800 and also

    closed around 50% retracement. Now,

    if it maintains above 27850 then next

    resistance may be seen around 28350.

    On other hand if some correction

    occured on this bull rally then 38.2%

    retracement i.e. 27250 will act as

    important support level.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

    above 27900 for the targets of 28300-

    28500 with stop loss of 27200.

    PIVOT TABLE

    G O L D

    PIVOT TABLE

    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER on daily charts traded in

    consolidation phase around its

    resistance level i.e. upper band of

    channel pattern and it is also a 61.8%

    retracement. Now if this bull rally

    continues and maintains above 45000

    then next important resistance may be

    seen around 46400. Contrary 43800

    may act as key support and closing

    below which may again drag it towards

    the next support of 42850.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to buy on dips for target

    of 46500, with stop loss of 42800.

  • C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    6315 6175 6010 6550 6680 6805

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    415 409.90 404.20 423 430 435

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper on daily charts showed

    bullish movement, took reversal from

    weekly trendline and found resistance

    of trendline coming from all time

    highs i.e. 423. Now, if bullish

    movement continues then next

    resistance is seen around 423 above

    which bull rally may be possible. On

    other hand if this range bound

    movement continues then again 410-

    405 will act as support levels.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy

    on dips for the targets of 6500-6600, with

    stop loss of 6250.

    PIVOT TABLE

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Crude oil still on consolidation

    phase after the breakout of

    symmetrical triangle pattern and took

    resistance of 6500 but unable to hold

    above it. Geo political issues in Iraq are

    further aiding in bullishness and if

    continues then 6550 is seen as near

    resistance above which next important

    resistance is 6700. Any correction will

    find 6300 as key support and closing

    below which may result in bearishness.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

    on highs, with stop loss of 425 for the

    targets of 410-405.

    PIVOT TABLE

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