Best commodity weekly report

6
20 APRIL 24 APRIL 2015 \ W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Transcript of Best commodity weekly report

20 APRIL – 24 APRIL 2015

\

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

MAJOR EVENTS Gold stayed supported ahead of weekend after rising above $1200 per ounce

mark.Weakness in US dollar supported the yellow metal in last couple of sessions. A

strong surge in global crude oil prices and ideas that good speculative demand could

curb losses for gold in near term also kept gold supported. However, the metal failed

to cross the 100 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hurdle yesterday and pared

some of its intraday gains. COMEX Gold is quoting at $1203 per ounce right now, up

$5 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 26762 per 10 grams, up

Rs 117 per 10 grams on the day. Global markets are worried about Greece defaulting

on its debt in near term. Greek bond yields soared higher after the country’s new

government demanded a fresh deal fromits creditors. Euro is staying supported

though, hitting above 1.0800 against the USdollar yesterday - its highest level in one

week on improved prospects for German economic growth. Falling oil prices and a

weaker euro are set to boost Germany's consumption-driven economic growth

further, four leading economic institutes said in a joint report on Thursday. The think

tanks raised sharply the German growth forecast for this year to 2.1%from 1.2% seen

in October last year.

The booming growth in U.S. oil supplies will end in 2015, the Organization of the

Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday, citing a significant cutback in the

number of drilling rigs. In its closely watched monthly market report, OPEC said U.S.

oil supplies would grow to about 13.65 million barrels a day in the second quarter of

2015 and then level off, beginning to decline in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, OPEC said demand for its own crude would rise slightly to about 29.3

million barrels a day, while demand for non-OPEC supplies would fall by about

165,000 barrels a day. The U.S. rig count decreased by 238 rigs over four weeks in

March to 1,110 rigs, decelerating the pace from last month's 335 rigs taken out of

service, OPEC said, quoting data from Baker Hughes. The Vienna-based organization

kept global oil demand growth unchanged at 1.17 million barrels a day for 2015.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday that US natural

gas stocks increased by 63 billion cubic feet for the week ending April 10. The five-

year average for the week is a 35 billion cubic foot injection, and last year’s increase

was 11 billion cubic feet.

OPEC Sees End To

U.S. Oil-Supply

Boom In 2015.

Copper Static in

the Evening Trades

on MCX.

The prices of Copper remained static in the evening trades on MCX. When last checked

Copper contract was trading at Rs 382.6 per kg. The markets saw a high of Rs 386.8 per

kg and a low of Rs 381.7 per kg.

This week, Chinese production of refined copper rose 9.7 percent from a year ago in

March as smelters expanded capacity amid an increase in supply of raw material.

China churned out 636,351 tonnes of refined copper in March, down from a record

832,618 tonnes in December 2014, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed

on Friday.

In a separate news, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) mentioned that surplus in

global nickel market was 20,300 tons in February compared to a surplus of 6,400 tons

during the same month of last year. INSG also indicated that the primary nickel

production was 158,400 tons in February and the consumption totaled 138,100 tons.

Meanwhile, the nickel stocks owned by producers totaled 93,000 tons in January,

higher than 92,100 tons in December of last year.Nickel was trading at Rs 796.4 per kg,

up by only 0.06%. The rise of surplus has brought down Nickel significantly below Rs

1000.

Gold Holds

Above $1200

Ahead Of

Weekend.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Apr 22 6:30pm HPI m/m 0.7% 0.3%

7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.04M 4.88M

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 1.3M

Apr 23 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 290K 294K

7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.7

7:30pm New Home Sales 514K 539K

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 63B

Apr 23 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.2% -0.6%

6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.7% -1.1%

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

26385 25940 25500 27100 27500 27865

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

35900 34885 33830 37350 38400 40580

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed sideways

movement, and took the support of

26390 but not able to closed below its

important support level of 26500.

Now, if it is able to maintain above

27100 then next major resistance level

is seen in the range of 27650-28000.

On other hand sustaining below 26380

bearish movement may drag it towards

the support level of 26000-25750.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 26900 for the targets of 27250-

27500 with stop loss of 26150.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

sideways movement last week and

took the support of 36000 on lower

side. Now, if it sustain below 36000

then next support is seen in the range

of 35000-34500. On higher side

maintaining above 38000 will again

pull it towards the resistance level of

39200.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 35800 for

the target of 34900-34500, with stop loss

of 37500.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

3365 3130 2950 3650 3815 3990

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

378.20 368.80 357.30 389.80 400 410.70

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

sideways to bullish movement and

closed below its important resistance

level of 383.15. Now, if it maintains on

higher level then next important

resistance is seen around 400. On the

other hand if it sustain below the

support level of 384 then it will drag

towards the next support level of 364.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

buy on dips for the targets of 3700-3800,

with stop loss of 3100.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

bullish movement, and broke its

important resistance of 3370 and

closed above it. Now, if it maintains

above 3500 in coming sessions then

next important resistance level is seen

around 3730. On the other hand 3350

will act as important support level

below which again it will drag towards

the support level of 3150.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 390, with stop loss of 384 for the

targets of 400-405.

PIVOT TABLE

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