Bersin by Deloitte -...

Bersin by Deloitte 2017 Predictions

Everything is Digital

Josh Bersin

Founder, Bersin by Deloitte

Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP

January, 2017

HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2

Demographic and

political upheaval:

Millennials make up

more than half the workforce.

Boomers working into their

70s and 80s, and a new wave

of nationalism.

Digital technology

infiltrates our lives:

Technology is disrupting

business models and radically

changing the workplace and how

work is done.

Need to increase speed

and employee experience:

Engagement is flat, people are

distracted, hierarchical

structures are going away, yet

speed is increasing.

Career and social contract

with employees changed:

Employees now demand rapid

career growth, compelling and

flexible workplace, purpose, and

increased earnings.e

of purpose at work.

Forces Disrupting Organizations Today

MIT Deloitte Research, 6/2015 “Aligning the Organization for its Digital Future”


Digital Disruption

A New Industrial Revolution

90% of organizations surveyed by MIT and

Deloitte anticipate their industries will be

totally disrupted by digital trends.

As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries.

Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.


Siri Cortana Watson Alexa Viv

The Future of Work

Robotics, AI, Sensors are Here


Robots Average cost below $25,000.

China purchasing 150,000 in 2016 to

deal with shrinking workforce

In 1900 41% of US jobs

were in agriculture. It’s

around 2% today.

There is no fundamental

economic law that

guarantees every adult

will be able to earn a

living solely

on the basis of sound

mind and good

character.

- Daniel Akst, “What we can learn from anxiety

about automation”


Impact of Robotics and AI on Work

Jobs Shift to Skills Which Are Essentially Human

Source: Talent for survival

Essential skills for humans

working in the machine

age, Deloitte UK 2016


The overwhelmed employee

The “average” US worker now

spends 25% of their day

reading or answering emails

Fewer than 16% of companies have

a program to “simplify work” or help

employees deal with stress.

More than 80% of all

companies rate their business

“highly complex” or “complex”

for employees.

The average mobile

phone user checks their

device 150 times a day.

The “average” US worker works

47 hours and 49% work 50 hours

or more per week, with 20% at

60+ hours per week

40% of the US population believes

it is impossible to succeed at work

and have a balanced family life.

Sources: Deloitte Human Capital Trends 2014 and 2015


Productivity is suffering—is technology helping?

US productivity last ten years

1 billion

smartphones i-Phone

launched

100 million

Twitter users


• Since 2000, American workers have lost an

entire week of vacation, dropping average

vacation days from 20.3 to 16.2

• Americans left 658 million unused vacation

days and lost 220 million of them in 2015

• 39% of Americans “want to be seen as a work

martyr” yet 86% say it’s bad for their family life.

We Are Working More Hours: The Vacation Crisis

48% of

Millennials want to be

seen as a

“work martyr”

Millennials

50% more

likely to forfeit

vacation days


Average

3.2

What are these

companies doing?

2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities

Engagement Remains a Challenge

Summer, 2016 Glassdoor Bersin by Deloitte Research


1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere


3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity

4. New generation of performance management tools

5. Wellbeing and human performance emerges as critical

6. Employee experience becomes central focus for HR

7. Digital HR, learning, and recruiting displaces cloud

8. Leadership market reinvents itself again

9. Inclusion, unconscious bias, diversity goes mainstream

10.L&D will struggle to reinvent itself

11.Future of work will push HR into a strategic role

Talent and HR Predictions for 2017


Percent rating trend important

Importance of Human Capital trends to business

Organizational design

Leadership

Culture

Engagement

92%

89%

86%

85%

Learning

Design thinking

Skills of HR organization

People analytics

Digital HR

Workforce management

77%

74%

71%

84%

79%

78%

% very

impor tant

2016

56%

57%

54%

48%

44%

39%

36%

36%

32%

28%

% very

impor tant

2015

…

50%

50%

39%

…

39%

29%

…

…

The gap

between need

and capability

has increased

400% since

2014


Shared values and culture

Transparent goals and

projects

Free flow of information

and feedback

People rewarded for

their skills and abilities,

not position


A network of teams

B

A

D C F

A

C D E

B

G

How things were How things “are” How things work

E



What We’ve Learned about Feedback

Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19829208

Lack of feedback creates anxiety,

worry, and poor performance


The Feedback System

How Does Feedback Work Today?

Engagement

Survey

Senior Management Team

Employees

Line Managers | HR

Performance

Review

Filtering and Cleaning

Time

Per

Year


Feedback is the Killer App

The World of Feedback Apps is Here` Traditional

Engagement Surveys

Work Environments

Quick Feedback

Team Management Apps

Performance Management

Social Recognition

Well Being

Culture

Pulse Surveys


Feedback = Performance at Deloitte

1. I am really enthusiastic about the mission of the firm

2. At work, I clearly know what is expected of me

3. In my team, I am surrounded by people who share my values

4. At work, I have the chance to use my strengths every day

5. My teammates have my back

6. I know I will be recognized for excellent work

7. I have great confidence in the firm’s future

8. In my work, I am always challenged to grow

Bottom Quartile

Middle Quartile

Top Quartile

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

4.4

3.2

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

Pulse Survey items

Questions that Predict High Performance at Deloitte

Source: Deloitte pilots FYs14-15

Questions © Marcus Buckingham Company.


The Listening Organization

Enterprise Feedback Architecture

Integrated

Reporting & Analytics

Sentiment Analysis

Network Analysis

Social Media

Monitoring

Job Boards

& Ads Employment

Brand

Customer

Satisfaction

Anonymous

Feedback Tools

Pulse Surveys

Annual

Survey

Performance

Check-ins

Exit

Interviews Performance

Appraisals


People Analytics: Taking Off

Progress is Rapidly Accelerating

2015 2016 % Change

Performing multi-year workforce planning 38% 48% + 26%

Correlating people data to business performance 24% 39% + 63%

Correlating people data to business performance (% excellent) 5% 11% + 120%

Using people data to predict business performance 28% 36% + 29%

Using people data to predict performance (% excellent) 4% 9% + 125%

Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends, 2016 and 2015

Plan

Correlate

Predict


4. A New Generation of Performance Management Tools

Reinvention of Performance Management Arrives

Then:

The Networked Hierarchy

Now:

The Digital Organization

• Cascade and align corporate goals

• Drive and measure top-down execution

• Evaluate high performers

• Force out low performers

• Allocate pay for performance

• Assess competency gaps

• Create development plans

• Identify HIPOs, leadership candidates

• Create real-time team-centric goals

• Drive front-line, iterative execution

• Help everyone perform at high level

• Develop and coach low performers

• Differentiate pay for performance

• Provide continuous learning

• Give positive developmental feedback

• Engage teams and assess next role


What’s Really New? Almost Everything!

The New

World of

Performance

Management

Check-ins

Transparent

Goals

Peer

Feedback

Feedback

to Manager

Engagement

Survey

Individual

Assessment Team

Assessment

Continuous

Micro-

Learning

Regular

Evaluation

Integrated

into Workflow

Mobile

App

Annual Process Continuous

Manager-Centric Team-Centric

Hierarchical Multi-Directional

Competitive Developmental

Subjective Data-Driven

Secret Transparent

Single Rating Richer Rating

Vendor

A

Vendor

C

Vendor

D

Vendor

E

Vendor

G

Vendor

F Vendor

B

Fundamental Changes Are Enormous


27 companies that redesigned their process, found

overwhelmingly positive outcomes:

• 100% said conversation quality improved

• 83% said conversation frequency increased

• 90% said employee engagement increased

• 91% say data for evaluation is better

• 96% say tools are easier and simpler

• 77% expect continuous feedback

• 45% are using check-ins to assess managers

• 50% say training process is easier and shorter

• 67% doing feedback quarterly

• 80% expect employees to drive check-ins

And Yes, The New Models For PM Do Work


Em

plo

yee

Vit

ality

Business Performance

Cost

Reduction Labor

Productivity

Retention Productivity Collaboration Team

Performance

Leadership

Health

Monitoring

Employee

Assistance

Medical

Benefits

Fitness

Challenges

Nutrition

Exercise

Sleep

Stress

Sustainable Performance

Recognition

Skills and

Training

Work

Environment

Rewards

Leadership

Management

Clear Goals

Growth

Opportunities

Drive

Wellbeing

Self

Discovery Career

Purpose

Mindfulness

Abundance

Mentality

Positive Thinking

Culture Fit

Family

5. Wellness matures and becomes central

From Wellness to WellBeing to Performance


Changing Employee Habits

Photo: https://squashskills.com/blog/-/does-jogging-have-any-benefits-for-squash-players-159/

Personal plan

Culture of fitness

Challenges, Leaderboard

Apps, Wearables

Groups

Rewards

Storytelling

Management support

Slack time

Facilities

Leadership


6. Focus on the Employee Experience

Careers have changed and so have people

“Our candidates

today are not looking

for a career…

They’re looking for

an Experience.”


Culture, value, leadership, and career (The Big Four)

What matters to employees

Culture and leadership are 3X more important

than salary in your employment brand.

Career development and learning are almost

2X more important than comp, benefits,

and work environment.


-1.5

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16

US Workplace Culture Growth in Google Trends, since 2008 Recession

Workplace Culture Keeps Getting Hotter!


Millennials’ Skills are Not Being Utilized And They Will Leave to Find The Growth Opportunities They Want


Culture and engagement are related, but different

LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT

The driving force behind setting and maintaining Culture and Engagement

via modeling behaviors and expectations for the workforce

CULTURE The way things work

around here

ENGAGEMENT The way people feel about the

way things work around here

• Way of describing employees’ level

of commitment to the company and

their work

• When engagement is poor,

employees feel uneasy or

uncommitted

• Declines in engagement lead to

declines in overall productivity

Culture predicts

Company performance.

Engagement predicts

Individual performance.

• Series of behaviors that is closely aligned with

strategy

• Includes values, beliefs, behaviors, artifacts,

and reward systems that influence people’s

behavior

• Driven by top leadership and is deeply

embedded through processes, reward

systems, and behaviors


Factors that link culture and engagement


Bersin by Deloitte Engagement Model

The Simply Irresistible Organization®

Meaningful

Work

Hands-On

Management

Positive Work

Environment

Growth

Opportunity

Trust in

Leadership

Autonomy Clear transparent goals Flexible, humane work

environment

Facilitated talent mobility Mission and purpose

Selection to Fit Coaching & feedback Recognition rich culture Career growth in many

paths

Investment in people, trust

Small Teams Leadership Development Open flexible workspace Self and formal

development

Transparency and

communication

Time for Slack Modern Performance

Management

Inclusive, diverse culture High impact learning

culture

Inspiration

Collaboration and Connection


7. Emergence of Digital HR, Learning, Recruiting

HR Technology Now A Hot Marketplace


Moving beyond the cloud

Rip and Replace Pace is Slowing

Core HR Technology spending is slowing (41% say it’s flat) Clients not fully satisfied: only 21% of customers say talent systems “always meet their needs.” Two biggest growth areas are Learning and Analytics (37% yty) Career, succession, onboarding, analytics hottest functional needs User satisfaction is 2/3 lower than vendor satisfaction

How Will You Upgrade Your HR Technology?

2015 Cedar Crestone survey and 2015 Bersin by Deloitte HR Systems Research

Ris

k

Speed


Feedback and

Engagement

Reinventing

Performance

Video Based

Learning & Career

Team

Management Well-Being

Work—Team

Management

2017: A New Set of Disruptive Applications M

AR

KE

T

GR

OW

TH

—A

DO

PT

IO

N

2 0 1 6

Pulse

Survey

Text

Analytics

Mobile

Feedback

2 0 2 0

Culture

Assessment

Coaching

Tools

Checkins

with Feedback

Agile, open

goal management

Org Network

Analysis

Team Assessment

Tools

Social Recognition

Integrated

Smart Tools

For Leader

Coaching

P R O G R E S S I O N O V E R T I M E

Video Learning

Content

Curation

Intelligent

Learning

Career

Planning

Gamification

Accreditation

Well Being

Fitness Tracking

Competitions

Social Sharing

Points

Gamification

Fitness Merges

w/Engagement

Virtual Work

Management

Document

Management

Goal Sharing

Goal Tracking

Communications

Messaging

Curated

Micro-Learning

Engagement tools

directed to leaders


Shift from Cloud to Digital Delivery

Integrated HR Apps Are The Future


Convergence of HR Systems Ahead

Diet

Wellness

Fitness

Challenges

Goal Management

Feedback

Pulse

Survey

Surveys

Engagement Tools

Mobile

Feedback

Customer

Feedback

Check Ins

Personality

Assessment

Performance

Review

Fitness

Monitoring

Health

Behavior Change

Social Recognition

Customer based

Recognition

Community

Circles

Affinity

Groups Anniversaries

Work Events

Engagement

Analytics

Travel

Time Management

Video Learning

Video Sharing

Gamified

Onboarding

Career

Planning

Training and

Certification

Engagement

Feedback

Performance Recognition

Rewards Learning

Well Being &

Work Management


From Application Tracking to Recruitment Success

Reinvention of the Talent Acquisition Market

Applicant

Tracking

Candidate

Marketing

Sourcing

Video

Interview

Analytics

Next Gen

Talent

Acquisition

Onboarding

Manager

Tools

?


AI Applied to Recruitment and Selection

Video Analytics Becomes Real

https://www.fastcompany.com/3064863/election-2016/watch-this-

ai-platform-assess-trumps-and-clintons-emotional-intelligence

• Video interviewing now nearly

mainstream, as many as 40% of

interviews are done digitally

• AI software (HireVue) can now detect

race, emotion, gender, and tendency to

exaggerate or lie through video

• While use of this data is not legally

defensible yet, companies are actively

using this data to select candidates


Integrating HR into Work Itself…

And There’s More to Come…


AI, natural language, chat integration, and “experience platforms”

And There’s More to Come…

Workflow Interaction

Bots

Content

Videos

Podcasts

Notifications

Campaigns Real-Time

Analytics

Case

Management


Foundational Leadership Content and Curricula, Programs by Levels, Offerings as Benefits

Level 1

Integrated Leadership Competencies, programs, audience-specific, talent management

Level 2

Scalable Leadership Capability models, culture, executive commitment, rewards

Level 3

Systemic Leadership Culture, structure, exposure, risk-taking, HR-business integration

Level 4

Bers

in b

y D

elo

itte

17%

58%

18%

7%

8. Leadership market reinvents itself

Leadership development is a “broken market”


Maturity growth in global and experiential programs,

but not enough focus on Millennials (% companies who are “excellent” at these areas)

Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends 2016, n=7,000

70% of Millennials

tell us they are

receiving no

leadership

development

at all.

Focus areas

Weakest area seems to be Millennial programs


Too Many “Good Ideas” Out There to Pick From

Unfortunately, while much ink has been spilled on the topic of

individual leadership, very little of it can be scientifically supported.

In an influential book published in 1991, the University of San Diego’s

Joseph Rost pointed out that writers had defined leadership in more

than 200 ways since 1900, often with nothing but conjecture or

personal experience to back up their claims.

https://hbr.org/2016/12/succession-planning-what-the-research-says

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Leadership-Twenty-First-Century-Joseph-Rost/dp/027594610X


The Digital Organization®

Digital DNA Like human DNA, Digital DNA carries the 23

underlying instructions, development,

functioning, and replication for being “digital’.

These are expressed as digital traits and

characteristics. They are present in all areas

of the organization: business models,

operating models, customer interaction,

organization structure, talent, technology,

cyber-security, culture, etc.

There are four levels of Digital Maturity:

Exploring, Doing, Becoming, and Being.

© Deloitte Consulting LLP

Real Time & On-Demand

Fluidity

Constant Disruption

Changing Mix of Traditional & Non-traditional Stakeholders

Continuously Innovating

Modulating Risk & Security Boundaries

Morphing Team Structures

Intentionally Collaborative

Multi-Modal Operations

Continuous Ecosystem Disruption

Iterative

Changing Nature and Typology of Work

Constantly Changing Decision Criteria

Ongoing Shifts in Decision Rights and Power

Geography Agnostic

Uneven Velocity between Digital & Legacy

Dynamic Skill Requirements

Increased Customer Involvement

Productive Mobility (non-traditional workspace options)

Flattening and Changing Hierarchy

Agility

Fail Early, Fail Fast, Learn Faster

Democratizing Information


CEO’s Do Not Understand The Issue Yet

67% of CEOs responding to a recent Korn Ferry

study believe that technology will create more

value than human capital.

44% of leaders in large global businesses believe

that the prevalence of robotics, automation, and

ATI will make people “largely irrelevant” in the

future of work.

And, to make it worse, “46% say they do not

know how to measure workforce performance.”


Essential Talent Activities Standalone disconnected staffing, training, and performance practices

Level 1

Critical Talent Growth Critical talent segments, focus on hiring, training, performance

Level 2

Managed Talent Relationships Workforce planning, development planning, leadership development integrated

into talent strategy

Level 3

Inclusive Talent System Talent strategies integrated with inclusion, diversity, and culture

Level 4

Bers

in b

y D

elo

itte

10%

19%

59%

12%

The New Bersin by Deloitte Talent Management Maturity Model

Source: Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP, 2015.

9. Inclusion, bias, diversity go mainstream

Inclusive Talent Practices Drive Financial Results


Polling question

Where would you place your organization on the Inclusion Maturity Model?

• Level 1—Standalone disconnected staffing, training, and performance practices

• Level 2—Critical talent segments, focus on hiring, training, performance

• Level 3—Workforce planning, development planning, leadership development integrated into talent strategy

• Level 4—Talent strategies integrated with inclusion, diversity, and culture

• Not sure / NA


Effective Inclusion Is A Leadership Issue

Six Signature Traits of Inclusive Leadership

https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-

en/topics/talent/six-signature-traits-of-

inclusive-leadership.html

https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-en/topics/talent/six-signature-traits-of-inclusive-leadership.html
















• People are inherently biased

Age, gender, experience, proximity, race

Training and workshops are the new rage

Training is good but not enough

• Bias can be removed from “processes” not “people”

Recruitment and selection

Promotion and leadership

Compensation and rewards

Leaders held accountable

• New data driven solutions drive out bias fastest

• We have proof that diverse teams perform better, are more

innovative, and more engaged

Unconscious Bias Takes Center Stage

https://hbr.org/2016/11/why-diverse-teams-are-smarter

https://hbr.org/2016/09/diverse-teams-feel-less-comfortable-and-thats-why-they-perform-better
































Our Data Proves Value of Inclusive Talent Practices

As compared with organizations of similar size

and less mature talent management practices,

mature large organizations had 2.3 times higher

cashflow per employee over a three-year

period. When contrasted against less mature

small organizations, mature small organizations

had 13 times higher mean cashflow from

operations, five times higher mean cashflow as a

percentage of revenue, and five times higher

mean annual change in share price (all based on

a three-year average).

Source: 2015 High-Impact Talent Management, Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP


“Over 300 years of economic history,

the principal and most enduring

mechanism for distribution of wealth

and reduction in inequality is the

diffusion of skills and knowledge.”

10. L&D will struggle to reinvent itself

The learning curve is the earning curve


Consumerization of education has arrived

MOOCs Forever Changed Education

400+ universities. 2,400+ courses.

35+ million students.


The training industry tries to respond

L&D is Not Keeping Up

• Average employee spends 6.5 hours a week learning

or trying to learn

• 2/3 of L&D leaders believe learners should use

learning every week or more.

• CLOs say L&D is “wildly out of sync” with how

people learn….

• Employees rate L&D -31% net promoter score

(49% would not recommend and only 18% would

recommend their training dept.)


ILT shrinking in volume,

growing in importance

Online and collaborative

learning Is finally working

OTJ and apprenticeship

is growing rapidly

Today only 16% of L&D spending is allocated to instructor

delivery, vs. 21% in 2011 and 33% in 2006

Source: Bersin Corporate Learning Factbook® 2015

Shifting resources away from ILT, toward online and on the job

Huge shift in content strategy


End of the Learning Management System?

A New Market Emerges: Learning Experience Platform

The “Learning Management System” (LMS)

Mobile Pathways Videos Articles Channels People Courses

Search | Curation | Recommendations | Machine Learning

The “Learning System”


One Final Point:

Jobs are not going away

Empathy, creativity, and human skills are more

important than ever…

But we must design our organizations and

jobs to empower people and the customer

experience.

57

The Future of Work is Here, And It’s Our Job To Deal With It

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshbersin/2016/09/21/the-future-of-

work-its-already-here-and-not-as-scary-as-you-think/#7b44ff1c5506

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshbersin/2016/09/21/the-future-of-work-its-already-here-and-not-as-scary-as-you-think/#7b44ff1c5506































4. New generation of performance management tools

5. Wellbeing and human performance emerges as critical

6. Employee experience becomes central focus for HR

7. Digital HR, learning, and recruiting displaces cloud

8. Leadership market reinvents itself again

9. Inclusion, unconscious bias, diversity goes mainstream

10.L&D will struggle to reinvent itself

11.Future of work will push HR into a strategic role

Talent and HR Predictions for 2017

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