Bernardo Afonso Salomão de...

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1/XX Bernardo Afonso Salomão de Alvarenga Chief Trading Officer May 2008 Balance of supply and demand Cemig Geração e Transmissão

Transcript of Bernardo Afonso Salomão de...

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Bernardo Afonso Salomão de AlvarengaChief Trading Officer

May 2008

Balance of supply and demandCemig Geração e Transmissão

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Disclaimer

Some statements contained in this presentation are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the US Securities Law and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Such statements are forecasts which may different from final numbers, which are not under our control. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties as they relate to us, please refer to our 20F form for 2006, and in particular item 3 which contains “Basic Information – Risk Factors”.

All figures are in BR GAAP.

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ave

rage

GW

In operation and tendered SANTO ANTONIO JIRAU

Electricity marketAdditional needs

Assumptions: use of natural gas thermal plants in accordance with Petrobráscommitment undertaking; average market growth 4.9%; GDP growth 4.2%

Balance of supply and demand – National GridBrazilian grid system (S.I.N.)

Sources: ONS/CCEE May 2008 study; EPE PDE , 2007–2016; and Cemig Research.

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Balance of supply and demand – National GridBrazilian Grid

Sources: ONS/CCEE May 2008 study; EPE PDE , 2007–2016; and Cemig Research.

Average MW Includes Petrobrás Committment Undertaking

-12,000

-10,500

-9,000

-7,500

-6,000

-4,500

-3,000

-1,500

0

1,500

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Structural surplusesand deficits of the grid

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3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,7613,7613.7613.783

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW Details of electricity supply

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Own resources

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3,783 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761

19260 380 381 481 507 651 712 712

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Bilateral purchase contracts / tradingOwn resources

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Details of electricity supply

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3,783 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761

19260 380 381 481 507 651 712 712142

306 28938

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Planned purchases

Bilateral purchase contracts / tradingOwn resources

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Details of electricity supply

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3,783 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,761 3,562 3,363 3,177

199 398 58419

260 380 381 481 507 651 712 712142306 289

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Planned purchasesOwn resources (concessions to be renewed for the 2nd time)Bilateral purchase contracts / tradingOwn resources

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Details of electricity supply

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3,783 3,780 4,021 4,141 4,142 4,242 4,268 4,412 4,473 4,473

142306 289

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MWDetailing of requirements

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

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112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112

4,029 4,130 4,156 4,300 4,361 4,361

142306 289

4,0303.671

3,909

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Passthrough under operating agreement

Detailing of requirements

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

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112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112

1,0491,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387

503 503 398 398

2,6222,324

2,566 2,686 2,644 2,744

3,653 3,797 3,963 3,963

142306 289

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Sales in Regulated Market (distributors)Passthrough under operating agreemnt

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Detailing of requirements

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112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112

1,0491,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387

503 503 398 398

199 398 584

2,6222,324

2,566 2,686 2,644 2,744

3,6533,598 3,565 3,379

142306 289

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Sales to be decided (concessions to be renewed for 2nd time)Sales in regulated market (distributors)Passthrough under operational agreement

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Detailing of requirements

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112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112

1,0491,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387

503 503 398 398

199 398 584

2,6482,325 2,411 2,205

1,814 1,796

2,155

1,0161,195

1,073

481830

2,5832,370 2,307

142306 289

1,498948

154

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Sales in Free Market (free consumers and traders)Sales to be decided (concessions to be renewed for 2nd time)Sales in regulated market (distributors)Passthrough under operational agreement

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Detailing of requirements

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112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112

1,0491,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387

503 503 398 398

199 398 584

2,6482,322 2,360

2,1151,708 1,542

1,475

332 311189

3 5290

106 254

680

684884 884

481830

2,5832,370 2,307

142306 289

1,498948

154

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Market Share increase (free consumers new contracts)Sales in Free Market (free consumers and traders)Sales to be decided (concessions to be renewed for 2nd time)Sales in regulated market (distributors)Passthrough under operational agreement

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Detailing of requirements

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112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112

1,0491,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387

503 503 398 398

199 398 584

2,6482,322 2,360

2,1151,708 1,542

1,475

332 311189

3 5290

106 254

680

684884 884

481830

2,5832,370 2,307

142306 289

1,498948

154

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MW

Resources Available for Sales / TradingMarket Share increase (free consumers new contracts)Sales in Free Market (free consumers and traders)Sales to be decided (concessions to be renewed for 2nd time)Sales in regulated market (distributors)Passthrough under operational agreement

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Detailing of requirements

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112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112

1,0491,344 1,344 1,344 1,387 1,387

503 503 398 398

199 398 584

2,6482,322 2,360

2,1151,708 1,542

1,475

332 311189

3 5290

106 254

680

684884 884

481830

2,5832,370 2,307

142306 289

1,498948

154

38

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average MWDetailing of requirements

Balance of supply and demand – CEMIG GT

Probable renewals

Resources Available for Sales / TradingMarket Share increase (free consumers new contracts)Sales in Free Market (free consumers and traders)Sales to be decided (concessions to be renewed for 2nd time)Sales in regulated market (distributors)Passthrough under operational agreement

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Balance of supply and demandNational grid vs. Cemig GT

Average MW

-12,000

-10,500

-9,000

-7,500

-6,000

-4,500

-3,000

-1,500

0

1,500

3,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

National gridsurpluses and

deficits

Available for re-contracting / increase

of market sharePlanned purchases

Sources: ONS/CCEE May 2008 study; EPE PDE , 2007–2016; and Cemig Research.

Cemig GT

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Brazilian industrial production

Source: IBGE

Physical output growth rateIndustry

12 months to Feb 2008

Gro

wth

rate

, %

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Portfolio management strategy

Measured risks (profit@risk modelling)

Long term view – sustainable cash flow

Optimal allocation of maturities of contracts

Formation of portfolio diversifying sectors, and prioritizing “AAA” clients

Creative solutions for Cemig clients

Present clients fully served

Capacity to be National supplier

A service case: 6 different sources for a single consumer

Trust

Clients pay more for Cemig supply

Cemig is sought out by generators and traders because of its capacity for action vis-à-vis clients

Participation in new enterprises ensuring sale / trading of electricity – Minas PCH Program, Sugar-alcohol Program and other Hydro and Thermal Generators

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A MELHOR ENERGIA DO BRASIL É TAMBÉM MOVIDA PELA PAIXÃO.

Quando o assunto é parceria com indústrias, a Cemig éassim: do jeito que o cliente precisa. Por isso, a Empresa não pára de conquistar clientes e reconhecimento.A Cemig acaba de receber o Prêmio Fiat Qualitas AwardsBrasil, na categoria Fornecedor de Material Indireto e Serviços. Em 2007, a Cemig conquistou ainda o Prêmio Fiat QualitasAwards internacional, tendo sido a única empresa, em sua área de atuação, escolhida mundialmente pelo Grupo Fiat.Este ano, fechou importantes parcerias com o Sistema Usiminas, ArcelorMittal e com o Grupo Votorantim, sendo este último o maior contrato já realizado no setor elétrico brasileiro. De parceria em parceria, a Cemig hoje atende clientes industriais em São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Bahia, entre outros estados.Para a Cemig, atender consumidores que têm liberdade de escolha é uma grande satisfação. Ser reconhecida por eles, é a prova de que trabalhar com paixão, sempre dá resultado.

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Investor Relations

[email protected]

Tel: (55-31) 3506-5024

Fax: (55-31) 3506-5025