Bernard Salt AM The Demographics Groupairpower.airforce.gov.au/APDC/media/Events-Media/RAAF...

RAAF Air Power Conference

Engaging digital natives in matters of defence

Bernard Salt AM The Demographics Group

21 March 2018

Source: Based on UN Population Division data; World Bank World data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival

Global population 1900-2100 and global cereal production 1961-2014

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

1900

19

04

1908

19

12

1916

19

20

1924

19

28

1932

19

36

1940

19

44

1948

19

52

1956

19

60

1964

19

68

1972

19

76

1980

19

84

1988

19

92

1996

20

00

2004

20

08

2012

20

16

2020

20

24

2028

20

32

2036

20

40

2044

20

48

2052

20

56

2060

20

64

2068

20

72

2076

20

80

2084

20

88

2092

20

96

2100

Glo

bal c

erea

l pro

duct

ion

(bill

ion

met

ric to

ns)

Wor

ld p

opul

atio

n (b

illio

ns)

Population (projected) Cereal (metric tons) Population (historic)

Food Energy Water Resources

Commodities

Space Security

Australia has what the rest of the world wants

Source: Based on International Monetary Fund,; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival

Australia is a good place to do business

BIGGEST

1. United States 19.362

2. China 11.938

3. Japan 4.884

4. Germany 3.652

5. France 2.575

6. United Kingdom 2.565

7. India 2.439

8. Brazil 2.081

9. …

13. Australia 1.390

$UStn GDP 2017 $US GDP per capita 2017 (excludes <$300bn)

RICHEST

1. Switzerland 81,000

2. United States 59,000

3. Denmark 56,000

4. Australia 56,000

5. Singapore 54,000

6. Sweden 53,000

7. Netherlands 48,000

8. Austria 46,000

9. Hong Kong SAR 45,000

10. Canada 45,000

FASTEST RISING

1. Ireland 40%

2. China 36%

3. India 25%

4. Hong Kong SAR 23%

5. Israel 23%

6. Republic of Korea 22%

7. Philippines 17%

8. United States 16%

9. …

35. Australia -18%

GDP per capita 2012-17 growth % (excludes <$300bn)

Source: The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival

Wellington Christchurch

Strategic issues will reshape the Indian

Ocean Rim in the 21st Century … with

defence implications for Australia

Auckland

TEXAS

Berlin 13% London 36%

Paris 22%

Madrid 20%

Mumbai 1%

Shanghai 0% Tokyo 2%

Seoul 4%

Singapore 29%

Darwin 28% Cairns 29%

Alice Springs 29%

Auckland 39%

Wellington 27%

Adelaide 28% Perth 39% Buenos Aires 13%

Miami 39% San Francisco 36%

Pittsburgh 4%

Toronto 49% New York

29%

Johannesburg 6%

Moscow 13%

Vienna 32%

Brisbane 28%

Melbourne 36%

Dubai 83%

Stockholm 30%

Sydney 39% Canberra

28%

Australia has an absorbent “changeable” culture

Source: relevant local census data,The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival

Proportion of city population comprising international-born residents as measured by local censuses

8,000km

Australia’s future pathway seems clear

Percentage of population in selected cities with Asian or Indian heritage at the last relevant census

City Population % Population by Asian/Indian Heritage

Vancouver 2.3m 41%

San Francisco 4.7m 25%

Auckland 1.4m 23%

Sydney 5.0m 20%

Melbourne 4.4m 17%

Brisbane 2.3m 9%

Source: data based on relevant national statistical offices; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival

Australia’s population mountain … Millennials are the bedrock

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group; presentation template by SlidesCarnival

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000 1 4 7 10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

49

52

55

58

61

64

67

70

73

76

79

82

85

88

91

94

97

Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers All Pre-Boomers Gen Z

20 40 60 80 100

5.0m 5.9m 5.7m 4.8m 2.3m

The ups and downs of Australian youth


1980 2000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

1978

19

80

1982

19

84

1986

19

88

1990

19

92

1994

19

96

1998

20

00

2002

20

04

2006

20

08

2010

20

12

2014

20

16

2018

20

20

2022

20

24

2026

20

28

2030

20

32

2034

20

36

2038

20

40

2042

20

44

2046

20

48

2050

20

52

2054

20

56

2058

Net growth in population aged 18-35 over 100 years in Australia

2020 2040

2016 1. No religion 6,933,700 2. Catholic 5,291,800 3. Anglican 3,101,200 4. Uniting Church 870,200 5. Islam 604,200 6. Buddhism 563,700 7. Presbyterian & Reformed 526,700 8. Eastern Orthodox 502,800 9. Hinduism 440,300 10 Baptist 345,100 11. Pentecostal 260,600 12. Lutheran 174,000

Religious affiliation in Australia between the 2011 and 2016 censuses

Change 2011-2016

+45% -3%

-16% -18% +27%

+7% -12% -11% +60%

-2% +9%

-31%


There has been a loss of faith in big institutions

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Dec

-196

1 Ju

l-196

2 Fe

b-19

63

Sep

-196

3 A

pr-1

964

Nov

-196

4 Ju

n-19

65

Jan-

1966

A

ug-1

966

Mar

-196

7 O

ct-1

967

May

-196

8 D

ec-1

968

Jul-1

969

Feb-

1970

S

ep-1

970

Apr

-197

1 N

ov-1

971

Jun-

1972

Ja

n-19

73

Aug

-197

3 M

ar-1

974

Oct

-197

4 M

ay-1

975

Dec

-197

5 Ju

l-197

6 Fe

b-19

77

Sep

-197

7 A

pr-1

978

Nov

-197

8 Ju

n-19

79

Jan-

1980

A

ug-1

980

Mar

-198

1 O

ct-1

981

May

-198

2 D

ec-1

982

Jul-1

983

Feb-

1984

S

ep-1

984

Apr

-198

5 N

ov-1

985

Jun-

1986

Ja

n-19

87

Aug

-198

7 M

ar-1

988

Oct

-198

8 M

ay-1

989

Dec

-198

9 Ju

l-199

0 Fe

b-19

91

Sep

-199

1 A

pr-1

992

Nov

-199

2 Ju

n-19

93

Jan-

1994

A

ug-1

994

Mar

-199

5 O

ct-1

995

May

-199

6 D

ec-1

996

Jul-1

997

Feb-

1998

S

ep-1

998

Apr

-199

9 N

ov-1

999

Jun-

2000

Ja

n-20

01

Aug

-200

1 M

ar-2

002

Oct

-200

2 M

ay-2

003

Dec

-200

3 Ju

l-200

4 Fe

b-20

05

Sep

-200

5 A

pr-2

006

Nov

-200

6 Ju

n-20

07

Jan-

2008

A

ug-2

008

Mar

-200

9 O

ct-2

009

May

-201

0 D

ec-2

010

Jul-2

011

Feb-

2012

S

ep-2

012

Apr

-201

3 N

ov-2

013

Jun-

2014

Ja

n-20

15

Aug

-201

5 M

ar-2

016

Oct

-201

6 M

ay-2

017

Dec

-201

7

Years of prosperity have created a culture of aspiration

Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter from December 1961 to December 2017


Fraser

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Menzies Whitlam

GST GFC

Hawke

The way Australians live has changed … and so too have expectations

Source: House plans created by Sawmill Designs

1950s Today

I stopped eating smashed avocado … and now I own a castle

17 years Australia November quarter 2017 – up 3.6m (8.7m – 12.3m)

Nov 2000 – Nov 2017 (000)

Jobs grown: 3,873 Jobs contracted: 293 Net jobs added: 3,579

Education & Training

Admin & Support

Mining

Financial & Insurance

Public Admin & Safety

Wholesale Trade

Rental/Hiring & Real Estate

Info Media & Telecoms

Manufacturing

Agriculture/Forestry & Fishing

Construction Arts & Recreation

Electricity/Gas/ Water & Waste

Transport/ Postal/

Warehouse

Healthcare & Social Assistance

Retail Trade Accom. & Food Other

Services

Professional/ Scientific/

Tech.

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000


Knowledge workers are driving Australian prosperity

Ups and downs of the Australian job stakes


Photographic Developer & Printer

2001: 5,000 2011: 2,000 2016: 1,000

Word Processing Operator

2001: 14,000 2011: 9,000 2016: 6,000

Sewing Machinist

2001: 18,000 2011: 11,000 2016: 8,000

Barista

2001: Not defined 2006: 8,000 2011: 22,000 2016: 37,000

Truck Driver

2001: 105,000 2011: 135,000 2016: 137,000

Management Consultant

2001: 30,000 2011: 41,000 2016: 55,000

Job numbers between selected censuses

Defence work spans all generations

Age profile of the Defence industry between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses

2011: 73,400

Gen Z Gen Y Gen X Baby Boomers


2016: 75,500 Change: 2,100 or -3% Aged 50+: 19%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+


•  5.9m now, 6.5m 2025

•  Never experienced a recession

•  Most educated

•  Ethnically diverse

•  Engage with the digital community

•  Famously changeable

www.thedemographicsgroup.com.au

Disclaimer

© 2018 Business Demographics Australia Pty Ltd ATF the Saltco Trust, trading as The Demographics Group (“TDG”). All rights reserved.

The use of any TDG name or logo or Bernard Salt’s name or image are prohibited without TDG’s prior written consent.

The information contained in this document and in this presentation is of a general nature and is not intended to address the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual or entity. It is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute, nor should it be regarded in any manner whatsoever, as advice and is not intended to influence a person in making a decision, including, if applicable, in relation to any financial product or an interest in a financial product. Appropriate professional advice should be sought from a suitable person with full knowledge and consideration of the specific circumstances of each individual or entity.

Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, we do not guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. TDG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation.

To the extent permissible by law, TDG, its associated entities and Bernard Salt shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information or for any loss or damage suffered by persons, including third parties, who may use or rely on such information (including (without limitation) for reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise).

TDG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. TDG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation.

These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the presentation attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without TDG’s prior written consent.

Bernard Salt AM The Demographics Groupairpower.airforce.gov.au/APDC/media/Events-Media/RAAF...

Documents

Transcript of Bernard Salt AM The Demographics Groupairpower.airforce.gov.au/APDC/media/Events-Media/RAAF...