Berks Vital Signs - Brain Drain or Brain Gain?

BRAIN DRAIN

BRAIN GAIN?ORWHAT’S HAPPENING IN BERKS COUNTY?

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Berks County Community Foundation was founded in 1994 to help individuals, families, organizations and businesses achieve their charitable objectives and improve the quality of life for the residents of Berks County. Since that time, the Community Foundation has grown to manage hundreds of charitable funds. Each year, those funds distribute scholarships and grants to support local students and assist a variety of nonprofit organizations and causes.

The O’Pake Institute was established in 2012 at Alvernia University to foster and promote ethical leadership and public service. The Institute serves as a catalyst for creating strategic community partnerships, supporting the broader community in developing leadership capacity and promoting dialogue on important civic issues and fostering public engagement.

The O’Pake Institute produced the Berks Vital Signs 2014 for the Berks Community Foundation. (http://issuu.com/alverniauniversity/docs/berksvitalsigns?e=5238587/6505989 )

This report is one in a series of reports on specific aspects of life in Berks County.


TABLE OF CONTENTS WHO WE ARE

Berks County is a mix of urban, rural and suburban communities in Southeastern Pennsylvania. While considered part of Pennsylvania Dutch Country, Berks County is located in close proximity to Philadelphia (approximately 65 miles) and within 125 miles of New York City. The county is bordered by Schuylkill, Lebanon, Lancaster, Lehigh, Chester and Montgomery counties.

Established in 1752, Berks County covers 866 square miles, most of which is in the Delaware River Basin. The county is comprised of 73 municipalities and includes 18 school districts.

Situated between the Blue and the South Mountains, Berks County is part of the Great Valley, which was the passageway for early pioneers to migrate west and south from Pennsylvania into Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky. The county’s iron furnaces, canals and railroads fueled the Industrial Revolution, while farming in the county served as the breadbasket for America throughout much of the early years of the nation.

Who We Are ��4

What's Happening in Berks County? ��5

What Does This Mean For Berks County? ��6

Educational Attainment in Berks County: A Profile of Working Age Adults ��8

Population Growth and Migration ��11

Migration by Education Level ��17

A Matter of Timing ��20

Workforce Mobility ��22

Is It a Brain Drain Or an Insufficient Brain Gain? ��23

The Challenges ��24

Sources, Notes, and Acknowledgements ��26


BRAIN DRAIN OR BRAIN GAIN?WHAT’S HAPPENING IN BERKS COUNTY?

At the end of the 20th Century and the beginning of the current century, academics and policy makers increasingly focused on the migration of college educated young adults from one geographic location to other regions of the country. For example, Penn State demographer, Gordon De Jong produced two separate reports focusing on the out-migration of highly educated young people from Pennsylvania to other areas of the United States. This migratory pattern was called “The Brain Drain.” The term actually originated in the 1960s in Britain to describe the exodus of talent from that country to the United States, but has since been adapted to apply to the movement of college educated and other highly trained young adults.

In a 2003 report, The Migration of Young, Single and College Educated: 1995 to 2000, the US Census Bureau noted that “The relative influence of this small population (25 to 39 year old college graduates in this study) is far greater than its size would suggest…When the young people moving into an area are also college educated, they provide a measure of economic opportunity in the area, while simultaneously serving to raise the area’s stock of human capital.” Obviously the

opposite was true for those areas where these young people were exiting. The 2003 Census found that Pennsylvania was the largest source of exiting young, single college graduates.

In 2000, Richard Florida, then an Urban Planning and Business faculty member at Carnegie Mellon found:

“The Pittsburgh Region, according to numerous studies, is growing old and is suffering from a classic ‘brain drain.’ This . . . is particularly important, as it is these young knowledge workers who participate in entrepreneurial high technology enterprises and regional growth opportunities.” (Competing in the Age of Talent: Environmental Amenities and the New Economy , 2000).

Over the past decade other demographic and economic factors have impacted regions and states significantly. The aging of “Baby Boomers,” the decrease of the number of school age children and the changing face of the American population are all important factors in shaping our communities. Similarly, economic forces have also had a dramatic impact. The “Dot Com Bubble” in 2000, the continuing decline in manufacturing employment and severe economic downturn in 2007-2008, have each shaped regional

economies. Interestingly some of the communities which suffered the effects of significant Brain Drain in the late 90s have now apparently turned around and are attracting significant numbers of young, educated workers. Pittsburgh, which Florida lamented as “old and suffering” a mere 15 years ago, is now attracting significant numbers of college graduates. Indeed a recent study for the Lumina Foundation (Brain Gain in America’s Shrinking Cities, 2015), found that Pittsburgh experienced an 8.8 percent increase in its number of college graduates between 2000 and 2013.

Ultimately the challenge for Berks County is to develop a sufficiently educated workforce to meet the needs of the community over the next 10 years and to create a diverse and vibrant economy that attracts and retains young, better educated adults.


Does Berks County have a Brain Drain problem? If so, what could it mean for the economic vitality of the region? And, if we are losing highly trained, educated young people, what can be done about it? That is the focus of this report.

Manufacturing remains a significant part of the region’s economy, despite the fact that the number of manufacturing jobs has declined. Berks County has a larger percentage of Pennsylvania’s manufacturing jobs today than it did 20 years ago; but the actual number of those jobs has declined. In addition, the demographic trends affecting much of the Mid-

Atlantic and Northeastern United States are also playing out here: an aging workforce, declining numbers of school age children and young adults as well as dramatic increases in minority populations.

A report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (2015), ranked Reading number one out of eleven statistical metropolitan areas (SMA) in the Reserve Bank’s region in terms of the percent of good paying jobs that do not require a four-year degree. (The Reading SMA encompasses all of Berks County.) Most of these positions are in the manufacturing and healthcare sectors. But while there are 500

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR BERKS COUNTY?

Chart 1: Young Adults Percent of Total Population

Source: US Census Bureau, Census Explorer: Young Adults Then and Now

The Reading Area ranks first in our region in the percent of good paying jobs that don't require a college degree


manufacturing companies in Berks County, employing over 30,000 people, nearly 54 percent of these workers are 55 or older. Of course, improved technology and increased productivity could change the educational demands of these positions. The aging of this workforce over the next decade also presents a challenge to the county’s economy.

Researchers have suggested that by 2025, somewhere between 60 percent and 65 percent of all non-agriculture jobs will require more than a high school diploma. Today, only 40.5 percent of Pennsylvania workers have more than a high school diploma. Our analysis indicates that only 32 percent of Berks County workers are employed in what are considered to be high skilled positions, requiring some sort of post-secondary education. Research by the Lumina Foundation and the Georgetown Center for Education and the Workforce indicates that the closer a community gets to having 60 percent of its workforce with some post-secondary education, the stronger and more resilient is its local economy.

Chart 2: Berks Employees by Occupation

Management occupations

Business and financial operations occupations

Computer and mathematical occupations

Architecture and engineering occupations

Life, physical, and social science occupations

Community and social services occupations

Legal occupations

Education, training, and library occupations

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations

Health diagnosing and treating practitioners and other technical occupations

Health technologists and technicians

Law enforcement workers including supervisors

Unskilled Labor

By 2025 60% of jobs will require more than a high school diploma


EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN BERKS COUNTY: A PROFILE OF WORKING AGE ADULTS

As shown by Chart 3, more than one-third of residents age 25 to 64 in Reading City have not completed high school. This impacts the overall statistics for the county. In 2013, the population of Berks County was estimated to be 413,521, of which 87,893 were residents of the City of Reading, or slightly over 20 percent of the population of the entire county. But a disproportionate number of residents in the city did not have a high school diploma. Overall, Berks County lags behind both the state and the nation in educational attainment. After factoring out the attainment levels in Reading, the county more closely

Chart 3: Educational Attainment Adults 25 to 64

Source: US Census Bureau, 2011-2013 Three-Year Estimate ACS

Berks County lags behind both the state and the country in educational attainment.


mirrors Pennsylvania as a whole. Chart 4 shows the information on adult educational attainment within Reading by ethnicity. The percentages should be considered in relation to the overall composition of the representation of each ethnicity within the City of Reading. According to the 2010 census information, Reading City residents were 27.3 percent White Non-Hispanic, 13.2 percent African-American, and 58.2 percent Hispanic. This information reveals that a disproportionate amount of ethnic minorities may not have a high school degree in the City of Reading when compared to their overall representation in the population. Both Latinos and White Non-Latinos fare worse in educational attainment than their counterparts in Allentown, Lancaster and York. African Americans in the city are roughly on par with their counterparts in the other cities in terms of schooling.

Chart 4: Educational Attainment within Reading City Adults (2012)EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY ETHNICITY AND RACE (AGES 25+) FOR COMPARISON CITIES

Source: Reading Economic Report (2014)

Less than High School

High School or GED

Some College

Associates Degree

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Reading-Latino

Allentown-Latino

Lancaster-Latino

York-Latino

Reading-White Non-Latino

Allentown-White Non-Latino

Lancaster-White Non-Latino

York-White Non-Latino

Reading-Black

Allentown-Black

Lancaster-Black

York-Black

0% 100%

Reading lags behind peer cities in educational attainment.

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In 2014, 50.1 percent of the county population between 18 and 24 had some post-secondary education. In Reading 38.3 percent of that population cohort had more than a high school diploma. Of the population between 25 and 64, 46 percent of county and 25.9 percent of city residents had some post-secondary education.

Chart 5 indicates that the percentage of 18 to 34 year olds in the county with a Bachelor’s degree has risen steadily in Berks County but both the percentage and the growth curve lag behind both the state and the country. This could create a particular challenge for the county as the country as a whole steers toward the target of 60 percent of the working population with some form of post-secondary education by 2025. It also raises the question of whether Berks is losing more highly educated young people. We can begin to answer that question by looking at the data on migration, both into and out of the county.

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN BERKS COUNTY:A PROFILE OF WORKING AGE ADULTS

Source: US Census Bureau, Census Explorer: Young Adults Then and Now

Chart 5: Berks Young Adults with a Bachelor DegreePERCENT OF 18 TO 34 YEAR OLDS WITH A BACHELOR DEGREE

The percentage of young adults with a Bachelor Degree is increasing more slowly in Berks County.


Over the past three decades, Berks County has fared better than the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in terms of population growth. During that 30 year period, the county has seen a modest growth in population, while the state population declined by nearly half a million people. While what demographers call “normal replacement” (births minus deaths) accounts for some of this increase, much of the growth has been fueled by migration to the county.

Map 1 suggests that much of this movement to Berks County has been from within Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York. The biggest changes have been a significant net in-migration from Southeastern Pennsylvania, particularly Montgomery County. The exodus has been more to Central Pennsylvania, particularly Lebanon and Centre Counties.

(It is important for the rest of this analysis to understand the term “net migration,” meaning the difference between those moving into Berks County and those moving out of Berks County. A positive number indicates a gain in that category, or a net increase. A negative number, on the other hand, indicates that more people in that category left Berks County than moved into the county. It is this gain or loss that helps us understand if Berks County is suffering a “Brain Drain.”)

POPULATION GROWTH AND MIGRATION

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2009* 1980-2009

Berks 3,646 (7,927) 8,873 4,592

Pennsylvania (162,941) (483,294) 162,537 (483,698)

Table 1: Population Growth 1980-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, *2009 figure is 5 year average 2009-2013

Map 1: Net Migration for Berks County

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2009-2013 Five Year Estimates ACS


The migration patterns for Berks County are similar to other metropolitan areas in the state. Table 2 shows that most of the migration that occurs is within the metropolitan region. In fact, Berks County is slightly more likely to have migration occur within the county than all but one of the areas in this comparison. At the other end of the scale, Berks County is less likely to have migrants coming from outside of the United States (including Puerto Rico) than in all but one of the regions.

The Census Bureau has found that adults between ages 18 and 34 are historically the most likely working age adults to migrate, often to pursue either an education or a career. As Table 3 suggests, Berks County has actually seen a net influx of young adults in each cohort of this population, most significantly among 18 and 19 year olds. This group, the 18 and 19 year olds account for nearly two-thirds of all of the net migration of young adults into the county. Some of this migration may relate to young adults outside

of the region attending one of the five colleges in the county. The bump in the 25 to 29 cohort is more likely related to employment opportunities in the county.


Table 3: Net Gain of Young Adults in Berks County 2006-2010

AGE COHORT NET POPULATION GAIN OR (LOSS)

18 and 19 1450

20 to 24 134

25 to 29 647

30 to 34 216

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 Five Year Estimates ACS

Table 2: Comparison of Migration into Select Pennsylvania Metropolitan Areas

METRO AREA SAME METRO OTHER METRO OTHER U.S. ABROAD

Reading 9�4% 3�6% 0�3% 0�2%

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton 8�7% 3�6% 0�2% 0�4%

Harrisburg-Carlisle 9�4% 4�1% 0�7% 0�5%

Lancaster 7�4% 3�0% 0�2% 0�3%

York-Hanover 8�0% 3�9% 0�2% 0�2%

Pittsburgh 8�8% 2�1% 0�5% 0�3%

Source: US Census Current Population Survey 5 year estimates 2009-20013

Overall the number of young adults in Berks County has increased over the past decade.


As suggested by the previous table, it appears from Tables 4A and 4B that much of the migration of 18 and 19 year olds is related to college attendance. The most common sources of in-migration to Berks County are, with one exception, from communities relatively close, suggesting a regional migration either related to education or employment. The lone exception is the movement from Nassau County on Long Island.

The most significant locations for out-migration also appear to be largely related to college attendance. By far and away the largest outflow is to Centre County, home to Penn State's main campus. In fact, the top five locations are all home to large public universities. Unlike the in-migration, which is mostly from within Pennsylvania, there are three non-Pennsylvania counties among the top ten for outmigration. But as noted earlier, the in-migration of 18 and 19 year olds dramatically outweighs the out-migration of this age group. Table 4B: Top 10 Locations where 18 and 19 Year Old Berks County Residents Move

Table 4A: Top 10 Counties from which 18 and 19 Year Olds Migrate from to Berks County

NET GAIN COUNTY STATE

430 Montgomery County Pennsylvania

283 Bucks County Pennsylvania

283 Lehigh County Pennsylvania

204 Northampton County Pennsylvania

161 York County Pennsylvania

121 Philadelphia County Pennsylvania

121 Schuylkill County Pennsylvania

84 Chester County Pennsylvania

72 Lancaster County Pennsylvania

62 Nassau County New York

54 Delaware County Pennsylvania


NET LOSS COUNTY STATE

-280 Centre County Pennsylvania

-150 Columbia County Pennsylvania

-100 Allegheny County Pennsylvania

-77 Indiana County Pennsylvania

-53 Cumberland County Pennsylvania

-45 Albany County New York

-41 Lebanon County Pennsylvania

-30 Clinton County Pennsylvania

-16 Palm Beach County Florida

-13 Snyder County Pennsylvania

-8 New York County New York


Most of the out migration of older teens appears to be to attend college.


While the net population gain is smaller for 20 to 24 year olds, the patterns are similar. Significant numbers of 20 to 24 year olds are on the move. As the tables in the Appendix (Appendix Table B and C) indicate, the top 10 locations generated 856 new Berks County residents in this age group; while 755 of them moved to the top relocation communities. But the net effect on the county is smaller. Three out-of-state counties emerged as significant sources of new county residents, which is one significant difference between this group and the younger cohort. Centre County is also the most preferred place to move for this age group, attracting twice as many Berks County residents in this age group as Baltimore, Maryland and three times as many as moved to neighboring Montgomery County.


Map 2: Migration Flows of Berks County 20 to 24 Year Olds



The patterns shift somewhat for the 25 to 29 cohort. Most of the influx is coming from Southeastern Pennsylvania, Montgomery County in particular. While 20 to 24 year old young adults had moved to Berks from Nassau and New York counties in New York; these two counties are replaced by Bronx County in New York and Osceola County in Florida. Centre County was also displaced by Lancaster as the leading choice for relocating by this age group.

Table 5A: 25 to 29 Year Old Net In-Migration




76 Bronx County New York


62 Osceola County Florida


55 Allegheny County Pennsylvania



24 Beaver County Pennsylvania


Table 5B: 25 to 29 Year Old Net Out-Migration


-96 Lancaster County Pennsylvania



-36 Northampton County Pennsylvania

-17 District of Columbia District of Columbia

-14 Orange County Florida

-13 Monroe County Pennsylvania

-10 Baltimore County Maryland


-5 Riverside County California


The migration patterns for young adults over 25 differ from those under age 25.


As Map 3 indicates, most of the net migration was within the Mid-Atlantic region.

The final segment of the young adult population, those between 30 and 34 are slightly less likely to move, and when they do it is mostly between neighboring counties. Again, Berks County has a net gain of population in this age group as well. (Appendix Tables D and E.)

Based simply on age related data, it would appear that Berks County is not experiencing a loss of young adults. In fact, there appears to be an influx of this age group. But the concern about a possible Brain Drain is also about the out-migration of more highly educated county residents. Unfortunately, census data does not allow us to pair age data with education data in a statistically valid way. Nevertheless, we can look at migration based on educational attainment.


Map 3: Net Migration of 25 to 29 Year Olds



Most of the migration affecting Berks County, regardless of education level, is within the county. Leaving aside this internal movement, clearly there has been an influx of people with a high school diploma or less, largely fueled by migration from other states and from outside the country, offsetting the migration of a significant amount of this population from Berks County to other places in the state. We cannot tell from the data whether the in-migration of the population group is transient, moving to Berks County before moving to other places in Pennsylvania. But it is clear that there is a significant migration of those with lower educational attainment to the Reading metro area from out-of-state and out of the country. Perhaps the most significant addition to the county population is the number of new residents with some post-secondary education, up to the Associate degree level. While most of this in-migration is coming from other Pennsylvania counties, there are net increases in the number coming from outside of the state as well.

MIGRATION BY EDUCATION LEVEL

Chart 6: Movement to Berks County by Education Attainment MOBILITY IN BERKS COUNTY BY EDUCATION LEVEL

Moved Within County

Moved from Different State

Moved from Different County

Moved From Abroad

Less Than a High School Diploma

High School Diploma

Some College or Associate Degree

Bachelor Degree Graduate of Professional

Degree

As explained in the Appendix to this paper, the Census has compiled 5 year averages using age cohorts from its 2006-2010 Current Population Surveys. It has released 5 year averages for educational attainment from its 2007-2011 Current Population Surveys.



At the same time, there does appear to be a net out-migration of Berks residents with a Bachelor degree or higher, most significantly to other Pennsylvania counties. There was a net outflow of those with a Bachelor’s degree to other Pennsylvania counties of 118, but this loss was offset by in the in-migration of 122 Bachelor degree holders from outside of the United States. It is in the population with a graduate or professional degree that we see the most substantial loss. While that is the smallest component of the adult population, the number of individuals holding those degrees who leave the county is 40 percent greater than those moving into the county, or a net loss of 242. It is worth noting that this loss would have been even more substantial without the influx of advanced degree holders from other countries.

MIGRATION BY EDUCATION LEVEL

Chart 7: Movement from Berks County by Education AttainmentMIGRATION FROM COUNTY BY EDUCATION LEVEL


Less Than a High School Diploma

High School Diploma

Some College or Associate Degree

Bachelor Degree Graduate of Professional

Degree

Moved to Different County Moved to Different State Moved Abroad

The influx of advanced degree holders from outside the United States has helped to partially offset the loss of those Berks Countians with advanced degrees.


To summarize, less than 4 percent of the total county population is moving in any given year. It does appear that the Reading metropolitan area is attracting a significant number of people with high school diplomas or less, but even more significantly is the in-migration of those with some college credentials, up to an Associate Degree. There is, however, an out-migration of holders of graduate and professional degrees. Is that significant enough to suggest that there is a substantial Brain Drain in Berks County? The answer to that question is clouded somewhat by the fact that the Census Bureau data that is readily available, doesn’t provide information about the age of people with the various educational levels and their mobility. We don’t know if graduate and professional degree holders are young people moving for their careers or older county residents moving for retirement reasons. We can surmise, based on the destinations of some of those leaving Reading for other states, that some of the out-migration is retirement related. At the same time, we also have information about certain age cohorts within the county who are leaving the area. Clearly, again based on the regions where they are moving, some of this movement is related to pursuing an undergraduate or graduate degree. But even allowing for this migration, it does not appear as if Berks County is losing a significant element of its more educated citizens.

One of the challenges in relying on census data for this report is demographic factors can change over time. It could be important to look at how the profile of young adults in Berks County has changed over time. For example, over the past 35 years there have been significant fluctuations in the national, state

and regional economy. While we may not be able to predict how the future affects young, educated Berks residents, we can see how their behavior may have been influenced by the times in which they live. In this next section we’ll look at three such indicators.

Only a small portion of the county population migrates in any given year. While the county is attracting a large number of people with less than a bachelor degree, there is a small exodus of residents with graduate and professional degrees.


The first area is work. In 1980, 61,329 young Berks County young adults had jobs. That number peaked in 1990 at 67,140, declined in 2000 and made a modest recovery by 2013. But number of jobs isn’t the best indicator as Chart 8 shows.

The percentage of young adult workers peaked in 1990 in Berks County, as well as in the Commonwealth and the nation. Economic downturns in 1999-2001 and 2007-2009 adversely affected job opportunities for young adults, more significantly in Berks County than in either the state or country as a whole.

A second noteworthy trend is the percentage of young adults, between the ages of 18 and 34, who were living with their parents, which increased by 8.8 percent between 2000 and 2009-13 (The census data averaged this information for 2009 through 2013.) By 2013, nearly 10,000 more young adults were living with their parents than had been the case in a decade earlier. And for the first time the percentage residing with their parents in Berks County exceeded the state average.

A MATTER OF TIMING

Chart 9: Percentage of 18 to 34 Year Olds Living with Parents

Source: U. S. Census Explorer Young Adults Then and Now.

Berks County PennsylvaniaUnited States

Chart 8: Percent of Berks Young Adults Employed


In the wake of the recession, the per-centage of young Berks adults holding jobs has decreased and the percentage still living at home has increased.


Finally, we looked at the number of young adults living in poverty. While that number had been steadily increasing since 1980, it nearly doubled between 2000 and 2009-13*, rising from 8,923 to 15,000. Again, the percentage of young adult Berks County residents matched the state level.

Clearly the economic downturns of the first decade of the 21st Century affected young adults in fairly dramatic ways. Yet, the evidence seems to suggest that, at the same time, Berks County had a net increase in young adults and in residents of all levels of education. As the Census Bureau reports that migration of the young working adults in Berks County was not significantly different during the recession years of 2007-2009 and the post-recession years of 2010-2012. (See the notes to this report for more details on this analysis.)

It would appear then, that Berks County has not suffered a Brain Drain or the loss of educated young adults. But a somewhat related concern also is apparent from data about Berks residents working outside of the county.

*2009-13 rate is the average annual rate for this five year period as determined by the US Census Bureau

Chart 10: Poverty


The percentage of young adults in Berks County living in poverty has increased in recent years, more closely matching the national and state rates.


Is workforce mobility another form of Brain Drain?

In 2000, the number of Berks County residents working outside of the county was slightly over 37,000. And the number of residents from other counties commuting to Berks to work was about 25,000. In 2010, the number of non-county residents working in Berks had increased by about 1,000. But the number of Berks County residents commuting to work outside of the county had increased to over 49,000. While the number of people working in Berks County increased by a modest 1.1 percent, the percentage of Berks County residents working outside of the county increased by more than a third.

As Table 7 suggests, most of the Berks County residents working outside of the county are employed in adjacent counties. It is not clear, which came first, the job in another county or the residence in Berks County. But it could suggest a pattern related to the issue of a Brain Drain. Is this dramatic increase in worker migration caused by the lack of employment opportunities related to the skills of these workers? Or is it connected to the fact that housing costs are lower in Berks County than most of the contiguous counties? Is working outside of the county a prelude to moving from Berks County? Or is it an opportunity to recruit employers to the county?

WORKFORCE MOBILITY Table 6: Worker Mobility 2000 and 2010

2000 2010 PERCENTAGE INCREASE

Employed Berks County Residents 177,831 191,426 7�6%

Employees Working in Berks 165,595 167,427 1�1%

Berks Residents Working Out of County 37,012 49,762 34�4%

Non-County Residents Working in Berks 24,776 25,763 4�0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 American Community Survey County to County Commuting Flows

Table 7: Journey to Work for Berks County Residents

COUNTY BERKS COUNTY PERCENTAGE OF BERKS RESIDENT WORKERS COUNTY WORKERS

Montgomery 14,822 29�8%

Lehigh 8,273 16�6%

Chester 7,499 15�1%

Lancaster 5,121 10�3%

Lebanon 3,213 6�5%

Dauphin 1,301 2�6%

Schuylkill 1,147 2�3%

Bucks 1,090 2�2%

Northampton 1,076 2�2%

Philadelphia 1,039 2�1%


The number of Berks County residents working outside of the county has increased dramatically.

B R A I N D R A I N O R B R A I N G A I N ? | W H AT ’ S H A P P E N I N G I N B E R K S C O U N T Y ?

The evidence seems to indicate that in general Berks County is not suffering a Brain Drain, meaning that it is not losing young, more educated residents. There is a modest outflow of individuals with graduate or professional degrees, but the data doesn’t allow us to determine if these are young adults under 35, or older county residents, including those electing to retire elsewhere. And interestingly, some of that loss has been offset by an influx of individuals with advanced degrees from outside of the United States.

Nor does there appear to be any significant outflow of young adults. While a significant number of young people under the age of 25 appear to leave the county, apparently for education reasons, there is actually a net gain of these young adults. At the same time, there is migration of young adults between 25 and 34, probably related to employment, but the net effect is an increase in Berks County population.

Other factors seem to suggest that rather than a Brain Drain, the issue may be whether or not Berks County has experienced a sufficient Brain Gain?

At the beginning of this report, we noted Reading ranked number one out of eleven statistical metropolitan areas in the Federal Reserve Bank’s region in terms of the percent of good paying jobs

that do not require a four-year degree. But over the next decade, over half of those positions will be affected by retirement, as that workforce continues to age. In general, the younger population has better educational credentials than their elders, but the number of workers, even those with high school diplomas, who might be available to fill these positions is smaller.

The growing number of Berks County residents working outside of the community has increased dramatically. Does this foreshadow an exodus from the county if these workers move closer to where they are working? We don’t have adequate data to determine if these workers are more highly skilled or educated that their Berks County counterparts.

Finally, if the forecasters are accurate, the workforce of tomorrow, the workforce of the next decade, will require higher educational credentials. If they are correct that 60 percent or more of the jobs in the 2025 economy will require some post-secondary education, what does this mean for Berks County?

In each of these instances, it is clear that Berks County will require more, better-educated workers.

IS IT A BRAIN DRAIN OR AN INSUFFICIENT BRAIN GAIN?

There doesn't appear to be a Brain Drain in Berks, but an insufficient Brain Gain.

The challenge for Berks County is in attracting more workers with post-secondary education as the workforce for tomorrow.

23


Fifteen percent of Berks County working age residents over 25 do not have a high school diploma. Over a third of the working age adults in the City of Reading have not graduated from high school. By definition, all of these individuals could participate in the labor market. But without even a high school diploma, their options will be severely limited. More support should be given to high school completion programs, including the General Educational Development (GED) program and the Commonwealth Secondary School Completion Program (CSSD). Lower-skilled individuals, especially those with multiple barriers to employment, can benefit from efforts that offer flexible, innovative training strategies, integrating education, training, and support services. Linking these high school completion programs to job training and ultimately employment, can greatly increase the likelihood of success. Recognizing that there may also be language barriers to attaining a high school diploma, English as a Second Language (ESL) programs should also be substantially expanded, both in terms of the number of students enrolled and the geographic location of these programs.

In 2014, 50.1 percent of the county population between 18 and 25 had some post-secondary education. In Reading, 38.3 percent of the population

had more than a high school diploma. But of the population between 25 and 64, 46 percent of county and 25.9 percent of city residents had some post-secondary education. Clearly younger working age adults are more likely to have earned some post-secondary credential, but not enough to meet the 2025 target. Should there be additional incentives to encourage high school graduates to attend college?

The Pittsburgh Promise, launched by civic, education and business leaders in that community nearly a decade ago, is designed to increase college enrollment in the city. While there have been some issues with the Pittsburgh program, leaders in Lancaster. are investigating a similar program in that city. Efforts like the Posse Foundation program are designed to encourage and support low-income disadvantaged

THE CHALLENGES

Chart 11: 2014 College Attendance Rates for Berks County School DistrictsCOLLEGE BOUND HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

Source: PA Department of Education Graduate Public by School 2013-2014 http://www.education.pa.gov/Data-and-Statistics/Pages/Graduates.aspx#.VkOev7erTDc

Note: Daniel Boone and Wilson did not report data

Per

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students to graduate from high school and attend college. While there are no simple solutions to increasing college attendance, there are models that can be borrowed to support local students, prepare them for college and support them while they attend. Leaders in Berks County should explore these options.

Despite increased concern about the value of a college education, there remains clear evidence that those individuals with some post-secondary education, especially those with a Bachelor Degree or more, are far less likely to be adversely affected by economic downturns and are much more likely to have higher life time earnings. Technology changes and productivity improvements are likely to mean more jobs will require more training and education.

While the county has quality workforce development programs, many other communities have taken these efforts a step further, creating employer-driven job training programs. The more closely training is related to a real job or occupation, the better the results for both the training participants and the employer. For example, in Philadelphia, Drexel University has identified its high turnover positions, creating a special program designed to train people living in the university neighborhood for these positions. This has resulted in a dramatic decrease in turnover in

these positions, while providing jobs for previously unemployed or underemployed residents of the community.

Strong partnerships among the public workforce system, education providers on all levels, and employers in key sectors appear to be critical. Research on job training and skills development indicates that many of the most promising job training strategies involve a mix of employment services, job training, and supportive services. This inevitably requires coordination and collaboration across systems that provide specialized services or training, including workforce development agencies, schools, colleges, and public and non-profit human services and employment services agencies.

What is driving the significant increase in the number of Berks County residents working outside of the county? Is this a challenge or an opportunity for the county? Given the significant and increasing number of Berks County residents leaving the county for employment, this should be an area for greater scrutiny. What are the jobs that these county residents

hold? Where are they working? Is there an economic development opportunity linked to “bringing these workers back home?”

The loss of highly educated county residents has been largely offset by the influx of graduates with professional or graduate degrees from outside of the United States. Is this a recruitment opportunity? How can the county be even more attractive to highly educated workers from outside of the United States?

There are also lessons to be learned from other communities. Two decades ago, Richard Florida was lamenting the flight of educated and talented young people from the City of Pittsburgh. Today the city is a hot location for those people. Through an integrated and systematic effort, with leadership from government, health care, education and business, Pittsburgh has created the amenities that are attractive to young people, encouraged the development of businesses that employ a trained and educated workforce and transformed itself from a decaying industrial city, into a diverse, attractive community.


Sources:

Benetsky, Megan j., Burd, Charlynn A., and Rapino, Melanie A. (2015) Young Adult Migration 2007-2009 to 20010-2012. U. S. Census Bureau.

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/acs/acs-31.pdf

Carnevale, Anthony P.; Smith, Nicole; and Strohl, Jeff. Recover: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020. (2013.) Georgetown Center for Education and the Work Force, Georgetown Public Policy Institute. Found at:

ht tps : / /cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Recovery2020.FR_.Web_.pdf

De Jong, Gordon F and Klein, Pamela M. (1999). Pennsylvania’s Brain Drain Migration in the Mid 1990’s. Pennsylvania State Data Center.

De Jong, Gordon F. and Steinmetz, Pamela. (2003). Pennsylvania’s Brain Drain Migration and Labor Force Education Gap 2000. Pennsylvania State Data Center.

Florida, Richard. (2001). Competing in an Age of Talent. Greater Philadelphia Regional Review, Summer 2001.

Local Economy Center at Franklin and Marshall College. (2014). Reading Economic Report. Prepared for Re-Design Reading, CDC.

Lumina Foundation, Goal 2025. (2013). Strategic Plan 2013 to 2016.

https://www.luminafoundation.org/files/file/2013-lumina-strategic-plan.pdf

PA Department of Education Graduate by Public School 2013-2014

http://www.education.pa.gov/Data-and-Statistics/Pages/Graduates.aspx#.VkOev7erTDc

Renn, Aaron M. (2015). Brain Gain in America’s Shrinking Cities. Manhattan Institute, Civic Report Number 102. August 2015. Produced for the Lumina Foundation.

Romero, J. (2013). What circumstances lead a government to promote brain drain? Journal Of Economics, 108 (2), 173-202.

United States Census Bureau. (n.d.). State & County QuickFacts. Retrieved from http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/42/42011.html

United States Census Bureau. (n.d.). 2006-2010 American Community Survey [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/acs/www/



United States Census Bureau. (n.d.). 2013 American Community Survey [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/acs/www/

United States Census Bureau (n.d.), 2009-2013 American Community Survey County to County Commuting Flows [Data file].

http://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/data/commutingflows.html

United States Census Bureau (n.d.) Census Explorer, Young Adults Then and Now.

https://census.socialexplorer.com/young-adults/

United States Departments of Labor, Commerce, Education and Health and Human Services. (2014). What Works In Job Training: A Synthesis of the Evidence.

https://www.dol.gov/asp/evaluation/jdt/jdt.pdf

Notes:

This report relies heavily on data from the Census Bureau and its Current Population Survey. The Census Bureau aggregates this data for a five year period. Each year they release a data set covering the previous five years displaying county-to-county migration. However, they do not release the same data set each year. So for example, the data set for 2007 through 2011, allows for analysis of migration patterns based on educational attainment, while the 2008-2012 data set complied the data by employment status. This explains some of the discrepancies in numbers within this report. The Census also reports data on total migration from county to county, and on workers residing in one county and working in another. This data has also been used to form this report.

Appendix Table A. 2007-2009 Recession and 2010-2012 Post-Recession Estimates of Net Migration by Metro and Age group

SOURCES, NOTES ANDACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


Note: This table combines data from the 2007-2009 recession period and the 2010-2012 post-recession period. The table is organized by metro and then by four age groups (Total Young Adults, 18- to 24-year olds, 25- to 29-year olds, and 30- to 34-year olds). Percentages represent the share of a particular age group with a previous residence outside that particular

metro. The highlighted cells represent those cohorts and metro areas for which there was a significant difference between the recession and post-recession period. For example, of the people moving in to Reading from other areas 57.4% were young

adults during the 2007-2009 recession period. 35.5 percent were aged 18-24 for the same period. During the post-recession period, 53.4 percent of the people moving to Reading from other areas were young adults. 35.6 percent were age 18-24. For most of the regions, there is minimal difference between the recession and post-recession migration. That said, there are noticeable differences in some communities among all young adults or some sub-groups. For example, there was a

significant difference in the migration of 30 to 34 year olds in Altoona in the two time periods. In some instances, Scranton and Lebanon for example, it appears that migration was shifted from the 25 to 29 group to the 30 to 34 group. Finally, in the

post-recession period there was a significant jump in migration to State College.

Appendix Table A: 2007-2009 Recession and 2010-2012 Post-Recession Estimates of Net Migration by Metro and Age group

TOTAL 18-24 25-29 30-34

TOTAL 18-24 25-29 30-34

YOUNG YOUNG ADULTS ADULTS

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton 47�5% 23�5% 13�5% 10�6% 45�6% 24�9% 11�2% 9�4%

Harrisburg-Carlisle 51�5% 30�5% 14�0% 7�0% 51�5% 29�1% 13�9% 8�5%

Lancaster 48�5% 29�2% 12�1% 7�2% 49�4% 31�2% 10�8% 7�4%

Scranton-Wilkes-Barre 51�2% 32�5% 12�7% 6�0% 54�1% 34�9% 9�9% 9�3%

Altoona 53�7% 33�4% 17�4% 2�9% 54�0% 32�0% 14�4% 7�6%

Johnstown 56�2% 40�1% 9�8% 6�4% 57�5% 37�9% 10�5% 9�1%

Lebanon 51�1% 30�8% 14�6% 5�7% 46�0% 26�2% 11�2% 8�6%

Reading 57�4% 35�5% 14�3% 7�7% 53�4% 35�6% 11�0% 6�9%

State College 78�0% 67�1% 6�9% 4�0% 84�2% 75�4% 4�8% 4�1%

York-Hanover 47�5% 20�0% 16�1% 11�4% 45�7% 21�9% 12�7% 11�1%


RECESSION POST-RECESSION

METRO AREAS

Acknowledgments

Report Produced by the O’Pake Institute for Ethics, Leadership and Public Service at Alvernia University, Tracy Brown, David Myers and Tania Hollos editors. Made possible through a grant from the Hawley and Myrtle Quier Fund of the Berks County Community Foundation


Appendix Table E: Leading Counties Where Berks County 30 to 34 Year Olds Relocate

Appendix Table B: Leading Sources of 20-24 Year Olds Moving to Berks County





90 Luzerne County Pennsylvania


43 Lancaster County Pennsylvania

34 Indiana County Pennsylvania

30 Nassau County New York

29 New Castle County Delaware

29 New York County New York


Source: US Census Bureau 2006-2010 5 Year Estimates ACS

Appendix Table D: Leading Sources of 30-34 Year Olds Moving to Berks County





29 New York County New York


27 Luzerne County Pennsylvania


16 Monroe County Pennsylvania

11 Bronx County New York



Appendix Table C: Leading Counties Where Berks County 20 to 24 Year Olds Relocated



-169 Baltimore County Maryland

-114 Montgomery County Pennsylvania


-43 Columbia County Pennsylvania


-35 Delaware County Pennsylvania

-33 Cumberland County Pennsylvania

-12 Orange County Florida

-9 Clinton County Pennsylvania



-52 York County Pennsylvania

-27 Lehigh County Pennsylvania

-25 Allegheny County Pennsylvania



-13 Dauphin County Pennsylvania

-12 Wayne County Michigan



-8 Lancaster County Pennsylvania


Berks Vital Signs - Brain Drain or Brain Gain?

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