THE NATIONAL FOREST PROGRAMME FACILITY Zambia September 2006.
BENEFITS OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN ZAMBIA AND THE ROLE … · BENEFITS OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN ZAMBIA...
Transcript of BENEFITS OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN ZAMBIA AND THE ROLE … · BENEFITS OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN ZAMBIA...
BENEFITS
OF FOREST
ECOSYSTEMS IN
ZAMBIA AND
THE ROLE OF
REDD+ IN A
GREEN ECONOMY
TRANSFORMATION
This is the summary of a report launched in collaboration and consultation with the Government of the Republic of Zambia.
Key messages
• ThemainobjectiveofthepresentstudywastoassesstheeconomicvalueofZambia’sforestecosystemservic-es.Preparationofthestudyformspartofarangeofac-tivitiesundertheUN-REDD1NationalProgramme.TheREDD+financialmechanism2isdesignedtorewardde-velopingcountriesfortheirverifiedreductionorremov-alofforestcarbonemissionsmeasuredagainstaforestreference(emission)level(FREL/FRL)thatcomplieswiththesafeguardsunderthe2010CancunAgreements.
• Forests are an important component of the naturalcapitalofZambiaandprovidebenefitscriticalforruralpopulations,urbanareas,thenationaleconomyandtheglobalcommunity.Outofthecountry’stotallandareaof75.3millionhectares(ha),estimatesoftheremainingforestedareasrangefrom39millionha(CSO2013)to50millionha(Kalindaet al.2008),andeven53millionha(ZFD2000).
• Estimates of deforestation rates range from 250,000haperyear (ILUAstudy) to444,800haperyear (FAO2005)andsomecommentatorsevensettheseatabove850,000haperyear (FAO2001, in Jumbeet al.2008;GRZ2006a).Zambia has the second highest per capita deforestation rate in Africa and the fifth highest in the world(Aongolaet al.2009).Themaindrivingforcesbe-hindthisdeforestationarecharcoalproduction,agricul-tural andhuman settlementexpansionand the illegalexploitationoftimber.
• The present study estimates that, when ecosystemservicesprovidedbyforestsareaccountedfor,forests make a direct contribution to the national economy equivalent to about 4.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), which rises to 6.3% with the application of mul-tiplier effects. Data were not available, however, formanygoodsandservices,meaningthattheactualfig-urescouldbeconsiderablyhigher thanthoseestimat-ed inthisstudy.Forpurposesofcomparison, in2010,thefollowingsectorsmadethe largestcontributiontoZambia’sGDP:agriculture,includingforestry(9.9),con-
1 UN-REDD: United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries.2 REDD+, or REDD-plus, is an enhanced version of the mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD), which emerged in 2008, building in the ideas of conserving and sustainably managing forests, forest restoration and reforestation.
struction(10.9%),mining(12.9%),andthewholesaleandretailtradesector(18.9%).
• Accordingtothepresentstudy,themostvaluableben-efitsprovidedbyforeststotheZambianeconomycon-sistofcharcoal;sedimentretentionanderosioncontrol;non-woodforestproducts;andecotourismandvariousotherservices,suchastheprovisionofindustrialround-wood,pollinationservicesandcarbonstorage.
• Oneofthemostimportantfunctionsperformedbyfor-estsistheircontributiontoZambianlivelihoods.Forests support over 1 million jobs, which means that they support more than 60% of rural Zambian households.
• ThebasicREDDmechanism,togetherwithitsenhancedversion,REDD+,aimedatenhancingforestcarbonstockand theconservationandsustainablemanagementofforests, has a significant role to play in catalysing thetransitiontoagreeneconomyandcontributingtothecountry’s broader development and attainment of itseconomicobjectives.
• Severalmeasures can help secure the long-termben-efits and values provided by forests through mecha-nismssuchasREDD+:theseincludestrengtheningfor-estmanagementandtheenforcementoflawsonillegaltimber harvesting; supporting community land-tenureand strengthening community-based forest steward-ship; improvingtheefficiencyandsustainabilityofag-riculturalpractices;increasingaccesstoincentivesandincome-generating activities that depend upon forestconservation; andmanaging the demand for charcoalproduction.
Importance of forests to the Zambian economy and people
Withthegrowingrecognitionoftheimportantroleofnatu-ralcapital,therehasbeenasteadyshiftintheglobalagendafromthenotionofsustainabledevelopmenttothatofthegreen economy. A green economic path aims to achieveresilient and equitable sustainable development withoutdegrading theenvironment and losing the services that itprovides.Keyactions inthisregard includepreventingthelossofbiodiversityandecosystemservices,andpromotingenergyefficiency,whilerecognizinghumanwell-beingandsocialequityascoregoals (UNEP2011).Toachievepolicyshiftsinlow-incomecountriesinfavourofgreeneconomicdevelopmentitwillbenecessarytodemonstratethecostsofthedepletionofnaturalcapital–or,conversely,theben-efitsofsecuringandrestoringnaturalcapital–sothatthetrade-offsmadeunderdifferentdevelopmentpathscanbefullyappreciated.
Zambiaboastsawealthofnaturalresources,whicharecriti-calforitspeopleandeconomicdevelopment.Thecountryhascommitteditselftoachievinggrowthanddevelopmenttoreducepovertyandraiselivingstandards.Forestsareim-portant for reaching thesegoals,because theymakeupasignificantportionofZambia’snaturalcapital.Figure1pro-videsaspatialoverviewofforestcoverinZambia.Priortothe present study, however, no systematic evaluationhadeverbeenmadeofZambia’sforests.
Thebenefitsofforestsincludetheprovisionofproductsandservices,suchastimber,rawmaterials,fuel,foodandmedi-cine,thatcontributetothelivelihoodsandincomeofruralcommunities. Zambia’s forestsalsoprovideenvironmentalregulatingservices,suchascarbonstorageandsequestra-tion, the regulationofwaterflowsandwaterquality,ero-sion control, sediment retention, pollination and diseaseregulation.Theyalsoprovidesupportingservices for tour-ism,recreationalactivitiesandotherculturalpursuits.Thedepletionanddegradationofforestswillthereforeresultinthelossofthesevalues,andthislossmustbesetagainstanygainsthatmaybemadebythecompetingactivities.
estimatesandtoproducepreliminarydesktopestimatesofservicesthathadnotbeenvaluedpreviously.Spatialanalysistechniqueswerealsoused,wherepossible,togenerateesti-matesoflikelyvariationsinthevalueofecosystemservicesandthepotentialtrade-offsinvolvedinforestuseandcon-servation.Basedonavailableempiricalandspatialdata, inconjunctionwithassumptionsmadeonthebasisofanexpertunderstandingofecosystemservices,preliminaryestimateswerepreparedofthevalueofarangeofforestecosystemservices.Twoprincipalmodellingtechniqueswerefollowedinmakingtheseestimates,bothofwhichwerelimitedbythespatialresolutionandaccuracyoftheunderlyingdata:
• Extrapolationofdatabasedonspatialparametersattheresolutionallowedbythedata(e.g.byvegetationtype,biomass,populationdensityordistrict);or
• Modellingofspatialprocesses,usinganexistingspatialmodellingplatform,theintegratedvaluationofecosys-temservicesandtrade-offssuite(InVEST),developedbytheNaturalCapitalProjectatStanfordUniversity,USA.
Theecosystemservicesvalued,togetherwiththemethod-ologiesusedandmain secondary sources, arehighlightedinTable1.
Results
• Thevalueofwood productionwasestimatedatapprox-imatelyUS$396 million per annum. There is a spatialmismatchbetweensupplyandharvesting,sothatcer-tainareasappeartobeseverelyoverutilized.
• Estimates of the value of non-wood forest productsvary considerably, but, based on the assumptions ap-pliedinthisstudy,theoverallincomefromsuchprod-uctswasestimatedatUS$135.8 million per annum.
• Therearevariouswaysinwhichthevalueofcarboncanbeestimated.The present study estimated the value of carbon in termsof itsdamage costs (social costofcarbonemissions).ThecostofretainingtheremainingcarbonstockswouldbeintheorderofUS$29pertonnefor the global community, but retraining the remain-ingcarbonstocksforZambiaitselfwouldbeverymuchlesscostlythanthis,amountingtosomeUS$15 million per annum.Anotherwaytomeasurethevalueofcar-bonistousepricescurrentlypaidinthevoluntarycar-bonmarket,whichareintherangeofUS$6pertonne.Dependingon location, carbon stocks in Zambian for-estsarepotentiallyworthaboutUS$150perhaonaver-age(onceoff),butrangeuptoUS$745perhaforintactforests. The value of sequestration in degraded areasrangesbetweenareaboutUS$16andUS$30perhaperyear.
Figure1:Zambianforestcover.Source: Map of forest cover by the Zambian Forest Department
Estimating the economic values of forests to the national economy
Theaimof thepresent studywas toundertakeaprelimi-nary,rapidassessmentofthevalueofforestsintheZambianeconomyand the functions that theyperform, in supportofpolicydecisionsrelatedtodevelopmentplanning,forestconservationandmanagementandtheimplementationofREDD+activitiesinthecountry.
The study reviewed and synthesized available informationgatheredthroughextensivesurveysofpeer-reviewedpubli-cationsandacademicliteratureoutsideofficialpublications– so-called “grey literature”–and from in-country reportsanddata sources. Thesedatawereused toupdateearlier
• Basedonamodelofsoilerosionandtransportdevel-oped through this analysis (using InVEST software), itwasestimatedthatcurrentratesofsedimentoutputareintheorderof250milliontonnes(anaverageof2.23tonnesperha).Sediment retention byforestsisintheorderof274milliontonnes,generatingcostsavingsofUS$247 million per annum.
• Basedonthecostsofalternativemeansofpollination,thevalueof forest pollination serviceswasestimatedtobeintheorderofUS$74 million per annum.
• Estimatesofthedirectvalueaddedbyforest-based tour-ismrangefromUS$110 to US$179 million per annum.
• In summary, the analysis showed that the direct andindirect values of the forests considered under thepresentstudywereestimatedtomakeadirectcontri-
butionequivalent to some4.7% of GDP, or US$957.5 million, using 2010 figures.When,however, themul-tipliereffectsof forestryandtourism-relatedactivitiesonothersectorsaretakenintoaccount,theoveralloreconomy-wide contribution of forests was estimated to be at least 6.3% of GDP, or US$1,277 million. Table2providesasummaryoftheeconomicvalueofforestecosystemservicesinZambia.
• Forests are estimated to provide over 1 million jobs, supporting more than 60% of rural Zambian house-holds, which are heavily dependent upon the use ofnaturalresourcestosustainorsupplementtheirliveli-hoods.Forestresourcescontributeapproximately20%of household incomes, including the market value ofsubsistence production. The true value of forests, in-cludingflowsofgoodsandservicesforwhichnoreliabledatawereavailable,islikelytobeconsiderablyhigher.
Table1:Overviewofforestecosystemservicesvaluedandmethodsusedtoreachtheseestimates.
Type of ecosystem service
How estimate was reached Secondary data source
Industrialwood Valuewasbasedonsustainableyieldratherthancurrentuse.Thisstudyuses1)anexistingestimateofthemaximumallowablecut(Kalinda et al. 2008,17.5millionm3),whichequatesto0.6%oftheestimatedstandingstock,and2)Kalindaetal.’sestimateoftheproportionofroundwoodvs.fuelwood.Usingpricesperm3(Gumboet al.2013),spatialdistributionofthisvaluewasmappedbasedonthedistributionofforestbiomass.
Puustjärviet al.(2005)
Ng’andweet al.(2006)
MukoshaandSiampale(2009)
Woodfuel Usingpricesperm3(Gumboet al.2013andCSO2013),pricesperbagorbyvolumeforfinalproducts,andconversionswascalculatedtom3equivalents,theresultingfiguresrangedfrom$37to$43perm3.Basedonconservativepriceestimates,afinalfigureforgrossvalueadded(GVA)wasobtainedat62.5%ofgrossoutput.Theactualwoodfuelproductionisestimatedtobetwicethesustainableyield.Spatialdistributionofthisvaluewasmappedbasedonthedistributionofforestbiomass.
Puustjärviet al.(2005)
Ng’andweet al.(2006)
Kalindaet al.(2008)
CSO(2013)
Non-woodforestproducts
Comparabledatafromearlierstudieswereanalysedusingdistrict-levelinformationonforestbiomassandruralpopulationdensity.Cashincomefromforestproductswasafunctionofforestbiomassandpopulationdensity;subsistenceincomewasafunctionofpopulationdensity.Usingtheserelationshipstoestimateincomeatthedistrictlevel,anddrawingonthefindingsofearlierstudiesoncontributionsofdifferenttypesofresourcestocashandsubsistenceincome,overallincomefromnon-woodforestproductswasestimatedforruralhouseholds.
Nkomeshya(1998a&1998b)
Emerton(1998)
Turpieet al.(1999)
Mickels-Kokwe(2005)
Jumbeet al.(2008)
Bwalya(2011)
Mulengaet al.(2011)
Ecotourism Estimatesoftheproportionofforestecosystemvalueattributabletonature-basedtourismwereobtainedfromanearlierunpublishedstudyandupdatedusingrecenttourismstatisticsoftheWorldTravelandTourismCouncil(WTTC).Theproportionofnature-basedtourismwithinforestedareaswasestimatedonthebasisofthespatialdistributionofphotouploadsinGoogleEarth.
Hamiltonet al.(2007)
WTTC(2012)
Erosioncontroland
sedimentretention
SoilerosionandtransportweremodelledforZambia’scatchmentareasusingtheInVEST.Thisinvolvedestimationofarangeofparametersrelatingtotheerodibilityofsoils,andoftheimpactsofdifferenttypesoflanduseandlandcoverontheerosivityofthesoilanditscapacitytotrapsediments.Theseestimateswerebasedontheliteratureandothersimilarstudies.Estimatesofthequantitiesofsedimentthatwerepreventedfromreachingdamswerecomputedonthebasisof,1)aconversionoftonnesofsedimenttochangesindamvolume;and2)internationalestimatesofthecostsofdamsedimentation.Theoverallvaluewaspresentedonaspatialscalebasedonthemodeloutputsofrelativecontributionofeachpixeltothisservice,irrespectiveofspatialvariationindemand–inotherwords,assumingthattheserviceisfullydemanded.
CSO(2013)
Talliset al.(2013)
GISlayerondams
Bassonet al.(2009)
Agriculturalsupportservices
Totalareaandproductionvalueswerecollatedforcropsdependentonpollination;estimatesofthenumberofhivesrequiredperhectarewereestimatedonthebasisofvaluesintheliteratureforothercomparablecrops;replacementcostswereestimatedonthebasisofthepublishedcostofhiringhivesinSouthAfrica.
GRZ(2011)
CSO(2012)
Landuse/landcoverGISdata
Allsoppet al.(2008)
Carbonstorageandsequestration
Thevalueofmaintainingcurrentcarbonstockswasestimatedasthedamageavoidedthatwouldbeencausedbydeforestationandtheresultantclimatechangeimpacts,using1)globalestimatesofthesocialcostofcarbon;and2)averyroughestimateoftheproportionofthatcostthatwouldbebornebyZambia,basedonGDPestimatesforallcountriesandtheexpectedrelativemagnitudeofimpactsintermsofpercentageofGDPfordevelopedversusdevelopingcountries.Perhectarevaluesofcarbonsequestrationwerealsogiven,basedonpublishedratesofregenerationofdegradedforests,anddiscussedinrelationtoREDD+projects.Theoverallrateofsequestrationisunknown,however,asitdependsonhowbothintactanddegradedforestsarebeingmanagedandrequiresmoreinvestigation.
MODISsatellitedata
21.5 million Industrial roundwood
115.5 millionNWFPs
15 millionCARBON STORAGE
Unit: USD per Year(Direct value added)
Total 957.5 million which is 4.7% of GDPof Zambia in 2010
247 millionErosion control and sediment retention
110.2 millionEco-tourism*
74 millionPOLlINATION SERVICES
76.1 million
TRADE
NON-WOOD PRODUCTS
TOURISM
soil management
pollination
Firewood
298.2 millionCHARCOAL
FOREST COMMUNITIES
LOCAL PEOPLE
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
AIR QUALITY
FORESTS
Table2:Overviewoftheeconomicvalueofforestecosystemservicesandtheemploymentthatforestecosystemsgenerate.
Type of service or value Gross output or saving
Direct value added
Total value added
Employment
(US$ million per year) (‘000s people)Industrialroundwood 35.8 21.5 32.0 10.1
Fuelwood(firewoodandcharcoal) 598.9 374.3 557.7 >500.0
Non-woodforestproducts 135.9 115.5 172.1 888.8
Subtotal provisioning services 770.6 511.3 761.8 1 398.9
Percentage of GDP 2010 2.5% 3.8%
Ecotourism* 197 110.2 179.4 16.1
Erosioncontrolandsedimentretention** 247 247 247 -
Pollinationservices** 74 74 74 -
Carbonstorage(damageavoided)** 15 15 15 -
Subtotal regulating, supporting and cultural services 533 446.2 515.4 16.1
Percentage of GDP 2010 2.2% 2.5%
Total 1 303.6 957.5 1 277.2 1 415.0
Percentage of GDP 2010 4.7% 6.3%
*Thelow-endestimatesareused.**Thesevaluesareshownwithoutdecimals,giventhehigherlevelofuncertainty
Figure2provides anoverviewof the aggregateeconomicvalueof the forestecosystemservices thatwereassessedaspartof this study in termsofUnited Statesdollarsperhectareperyear.Ascanbeseen,theNorth-easternandtheSoutherndistrictsof the countryprovide thehighesteco-nomic valuesperhectare. This typeof informationwouldbeusefultotheGovernmentwhenprioritizinggeographicalareasfortheimplementationofREDD+.
Policy recommendations for investing in REDD+ and implications of such investment
Actions of several types are required to bring about themoresustainableuseofforestsandtoslowtherateoffor-estlossinZambia,asoutlinedbelow.
Given the importanceof forests to theeconomy, employ-ment and livelihoods, it is important that cost-effectivemethods of conserving and sustainably managing forestsare implementedtosupportgreengrowth.Waysofdoingthisincludestrengtheningandenhancingthemanagementand governance of forests at the local level; introducingmeasurestoreduceurbandemandforcharcoal;supportingthedevelopmentoflivelihoodandincome-generatingactiv-itiesthatsupportorrelyuponforestconservationandmain-tenance;andincreasingthesustainabilityandefficiencyofagriculturalpractices.Thepotentialandrelativesuccessofeachofthesestrategiesdependsontheecological,social,economic and political context in which they are imple-mented in Zambia.Where appropriate, these approachesshouldbepursuedinconcertandcanformthepillarsofaNationalREDD+StrategyinZambia.Thecostsandbenefitsof implementingREDD+ in Zambiawill dependheavilyonwheresuchimplementationisgoingtotakeplaceandthe
strategies that are employed to reduce deforestation. Forforest-basedinitiatives,giventhespatialvariationinsupplyand demand for ecosystem services, projects are likely tohavedifferentobjectivesindifferentareas.Itisrecommend-edthatalargeproportionofREDD+investmentsareused
(a) toaddressoff-siteinterventionsthataffectthedrivingforcesbehinddeforestation;and
(b) toimproveforestgovernance.
Thepresent study suggests that sustainablymanaged for-estsyieldbenefitsworthatleastUS$25perhaperyearonaverage,althoughthesemaybeashighas,orevenhigherthan,US$700perha.If these benefits are taken into con-sideration, REDD+ activities are likely to be more generally viable, and in situ conservation activities will also be viable across a broader spectrum of the landscape. The consid-erationofbenefitsotherthancarbon,forwhichthisstudyhasmade a first-cut estimation, is therefore important indeterminingtheviabilityofREDD+initiativesfromaneco-nomicpointofview. Itshouldalsoberecognizedthat thecarbonincomethatcanbegeneratedthroughREDD+initia-tivesalsohelpstomakepublicsector investment inforestconservationamoreviableprospect.
There is very little precedent in Zambia fromwhich infor-mation on implementation costs may be drawn, but thecostsofimplementingpilotREDD+projectswithafocusonspecificprojectareasrangebetweenUS$1.7andUS$6perha.IntheUnitedRepublicofTanzania,ontheotherhand,projectcostsareintherangeofUS$3.9–US$8.9perha(UN-REDD2012).ThecostsofeffectiveforestmanagementareestimatedbytheTanzaniaForestServicesAgencyatUS$8.3perha(Fisheret al.2011).
Figure2:Spatialdistributionoftheaggregatevalueofforestecosys-temservices(US$perhectareperyear)
Strengthening management
and enforcement
Increasedproduction e�ciency as
forest-sparingmechanism
Land tenureand legislation
reform
Measures toreduce demand
for charcoal
Develop (spatial and non spatial) scenarios
to evaluate options and priorities
Pilot and monitor the impact of
REDD+ initiatives
Improve understanding ofsupply and demand aspects of forest services
Investstrategically
Alternativelivelihoods
Chapter 6.2 Options for reducing forest degradation and loss in Zambia
Chapter 6.4 Recommendations
InZambia,therationaleforREDD+activitiesandthemeansbywhichtheyareundertakenmaydifferfromprovincetoprovinceanddistricttodistrict.InNorth-WestProvince,forinstance,whereforestsarelargelyintactandwherethepo-tential fortimberextraction ishighest, theREDD+priorityshouldbetodevelopandenforcesustainableforestry,butalsotoensurethattheenergyneedsofthelargenumbersof peoplemigrating into the area aremet sustainably. InthemoredenselypopulatedCentral,SouthernandEasternProvinces,whereforestcoverhasalreadybeensignificant-ly reduced and degraded and the demand for charcoal isgreatest, REDD+activitiesmust address the issueof char-coaldemand. In theseareas,where forestecosystemser-vices contribute substantially to Zambia’s agriculture andhydropowerproduction,REDD+interventionswillalsoneedtofocusoncurbingagriculturalexpansion.
ForseveralregionsofZambia,successinREDD+implementa-tionwillrequireexaminationandplanningofthecloseinter-linkagesand interdependencebetweenecotourism, forestconservationandsustainableruraleconomicdevelopment.Theregionssurrounding thecountry’seightmajornation-al parks show considerable variation in tourism revenues,with thehighestperharatebeingthose in theregionsoftheLivingstone,LowerZambezi,andSouthLuangwaparks.Clearly, forest conservation efforts maintain the potentialfor tourism,but it is vital forboth the forestsandwildlifepopulationsthatthecommunitiesinthoseareasobtaintan-giblebenefitsfromtourismandfromforestconservation,inviewofthefactthatothereconomicdevelopmenttrajecto-ries(suchasagriculture)arenotavailabletothem.
The final report of this present summary is published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in April 2015. This was written by Jane Turpie (Anchor Environmental Consultants), Benjamin Warr (BetterWorld Consultants), and Jane Carter Ingram (Wildlife Conservation Society) and ed-ited by Sun Cho (UNEP) and Ivo Mulder (UNEP).
This publication was produced in partnership with the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing
Countries (UN-REDD Programme), which harnesses the tech-nical capacities of FAO, UNDP and UNEP to support the REDD+ readiness and implementation capacities of developing coun-tries. More information available at www.un-redd.org.
The study was implemented by the Ecosystem Services Economics Unit, Division of Environmental Policy Implementation (DEPI), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
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