Benefits Analysis of a Departure Management Prototype for the … · 2013. 6. 18. · Case No....

© 2013 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No. 13-2122

MITRE: James DeArmon Norma Taber Hilton Bateman Lixia Song Tudor Masek

FAA: Daniel Gilani For ATM2013, 10-13 Jun 2013

Benefits Analysis of a Departure Management Prototype for the New York Area

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Addressing Challenges to Managing Departures Effectively


It is difficult to assign the right routes to the right flights at the right time: • Information gaps lead to inefficient, reactive operations • Staying ahead of the tactical problem requires actionable information • Lack of common understanding creates uncertainty among decision makers • The point of action is too far removed from the point of decision making • Departure queue sequencing is hard to align with available capacity

Demand/Capacity Challenges:

Impacted Fixes/Routes No route available

FAA/MITRE

MITRE

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Reviewing Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) Prototype Capabilities


A

C

E

B

D

Integrated Traffic and Weather Map

Route Impact and Demand Table

Fix Demand Table

Flight List

Route Options List

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Identifying IDRP Prototype Use Cases

Conducted New York area observations in 2011 and 2012 Identified typical

traffic management events Selected instances of

most common events observed


Departures from 4 major New York area airports over 5 hours

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Aircraft is ready for take-off

5-minute spacing

. . . but must wait due to minutes-in-trail restriction

. . . but must wait since fix is busy (in-trail spacing)

Aircraft is ready for take-off

Estimating Benefits of Use Cases: Simple Queuing Model


Type 1: Miles-in-trail (MIT) at fix

Type 2 : Minutes-in-trail (MINIT) off airport

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 2

Dem

and

Hour

Excess demand from Hour 1

“Spills over” to Hour 2, suffering

delay

Threshold

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Use Case 1: Offload from Saturated Fix

On 19 July 2011, at 2000 GMT ELIOT: 20 Miles-In-Trail (MIT)

restriction for the next 2 hours COATE: adequate capacity to

accommodate offloads from ELIOT


COATE

ELIOT

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Use Case 1: Offload From Saturated Fix


Flight List for ELIOT

Route Options List

COATE Offload

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Estimating Benefits of Use Case 1

With IDRP: demand (after offloads) and capacity for 3 hours Hour (GMT) 2000 2100 2200 Demand 23 18 18 Capacity (20 MIT) 15 15 24

No IDRP: assume offloads not performed Hour (GMT) 2000 2100 2200 Demand 27 19 18 Capacity (20 MIT) 15 15 24 Queuing model results: 790 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP,

347 for With IDRP → savings of 443 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $15,948 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $38,098 savings


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Understanding TMIs with Interacting Surface Flows


LARRY

MOE

CURLY

10 MIT

Airport A

Airport B

reflect as fix threshold

7 MINIT?

5 MINIT?

departure delays to all three fixes are linked

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Use Case 2: Airport Load Balancing

17 June 2011, 0915 GMT: flights routed over ELIOT to avoid storm Typical solution: 5 Minutes-in-trail (MINIT) from each airport for

ELIOT departures, assuming balanced demand


ELIOT

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Use Case 2: Departure Runway Load Balancing

IDRP showed LGA contributed many more flights than EWR Traffic manager chose to

apply 7 MINIT at EWR, no restrictions on LGA


LGA Departure Queue

EWR Departure Queue

Flights over ELIOT would require additional 3 minutes spacing if subject to 5 MINIT restriction

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With IDRP: LGA Runway 13 departures “free flowing” Hour (GMT) 1915 2015 Demand 29 26 Runway Capacity 30 30

No IDRP: nominal flow management action of 5 MINIT for LGA departures over ELIOT departure fix

Hour (GMT) 1915 2015 Demand 29 26 (Effective) Runway Capacity 17 30 Queuing model results: 228 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP,

0 for With IDRP → savings of 228 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $8,208 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $19,608 savings © 2013 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No. 13-2122

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Use Case 3: Offload to Fix, Plus Diverging Departures


On 4 June 2012, at 1345 GMT – New York departure automation reported delays at LGA reached 30

minutes, as seen in this log entry

– IDRP showed 25 aircraft were in the LGA departure queue

LGA Departure Queue

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Use Case 3: Offload to Fix, Plus Diverging Departures


TNNIS to BIGGY

CONEY to RBV

Map source: FAA (http://aeronav.faa.gov/index.asp?xml=aeronav/applications/d_tpp)

LGA Runways

LGA Departure Queue

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With IDRP: offload LGA departures to RBV, with diverging departures

Hour 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 Demand 47 35 34 37 36 35 Capacity 34 36 35 40 36 36

No IDRP: no offloads Hour 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 Demand 47 35 34 37 36 35 Capacity 34 36 35 36 36 36 Queuing model results: 765 flight minutes of delay for No IDRP,

551 for With IDRP → savings of 214 flight minutes At $36/minute for airline direct operating costs: $7,704 savings At $86/minute for passenger value of time: $18,404 savings © 2013 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No. 13-2122

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Understanding Significance of Results

Achieved important delay and cost savings to air carriers – As a result of moderate intervention by traffic flow managers – Action taken in a selective and focused manner

Resulted from common situations, occurring every day or at least several times per week Annual basis → hundreds of times for each use case, therefore

significant annual benefit Example:

– Single use per business day in New York (260 days per year) – Average savings per day of approximately $36,000 – Annual savings of $9.4 million in New York – If similar at 4 other locations

→ total savings $47 million per year


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Validating Queuing Model

Developed alternate model for “what-if” modeling in IDRP prototype; approach is discrete event simulation Added model elements beyond simple queuing model

– Individual flights modeled – Nominal take-off spacing, plus airspace constraints – Secondary impact of one flight “stuck in queue” behind another – Multiple departure runways; multiple “feeder” taxiing queues

For validation, exercised model on Use Case 2 Estimated benefit of IDRP per simulation: about twice that of

simple queuing model – Result plausible in light of secondary delay in simulation

We conjecture that the two models generate upper/lower bounds on an answer


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Summarizing This Talk

Deployed and evaluated Integrated Departure Route Planning (IDRP) in the New York area 2009-2012 Studied use cases representing typical events to compare delay

with and without IDRP use Found benefits estimated at $7-16k saved in airline direct

operating costs and $18-38k in passenger value of time per event, projected to total yearly savings of $9.4 million Projected savings at 4 similar locations would be $47 million per

year total


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This is the copyright work of The MITRE Corporation and was produced for the U.S. Government under Contract Number DTFAWA-10-C-00080 and is subject to Federal Aviation Administration Acquisition Management System Clause 3.5-13, Rights in Data-General, Alt. III and Alt. IV (Oct. 1996). No other use other than that granted to the U.S. Government, or to those acting on behalf of the U.S. Government, under that Clause is authorized without the express written permission of The MITRE Corporation. For further information, please contact The MITRE Corporation, Contract Office, 7515 Colshire Drive, McLean, VA 22102, (703) 983-6000. The contents of this material reflect the views of the author and/or the Director of the Center for Advanced Aviation System Development, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or Department of Transportation (DOT). Neither the FAA nor the DOT makes any warranty or guarantee, or promise, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of the views expressed herein. 2013 The MITRE Corporation. The Government retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free right to publish or reproduce this document, or to allow others to do so, for “Government Purposes Only.”

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Case No. 13-2122

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Back-up Slides

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Presenting Integrated Information: Flight Lists


Flight lists can be customized and sorted by each column

Surface Movement

Data

Flight Plan Data

Flight Plan Data

RAPT Wx and IDRP Demand

Algorithms

Flight Plan Data

MITRE

MITRE

MITRE

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Presenting Integrated Information: Route Options


Database of Pre-defined Routes RAPT Wx and IDRP Data/Algorithms

View change in flight time and distance

MITRE MITRE

Benefits Analysis of a Departure Management Prototype for the … · 2013. 6. 18. · Case No....

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