Benchmarking

Chapter 8

PAFPAF 101101

“The future is made of the same stuff as the present.”

~Simone Weil

Module 4, Lecture 2

Overview of Benchmarking

Provide Historical Data on Societal ProblemCalculate Percent Change Using ExcelDecide on Years to Use in Your BenchmarksMake a Baseline ForecastSetting Your BenchmarkUse Benchmarks to Support Policy Proposal

TAKE NOTES

Put Ch. 8 in your right hand

Put Exercise 8.1-8.6 in your left hand

My slides will use this information

Ex. 8.1: Historical Data

4 Years ending in most recent calendar yearOne piece of real data at a minimumProvide source or rationale

Where Have You Already Done This?

Figure 8.1: Data on the Number of Larcenies in Residence Halls at Citrus University, per 1,000 students, 2002 - 2005.

Time Period

Number of Larcenies Source or Rationale

2002 136Citrus Univ. Security Dept. Annual Report, 2003

2003 123Citrus Univ. Security Dept. Annual Report, 2004

2004 142Citrus Univ. Security Dept. Annual Report, 2005

2005e 126Between January and June 2005, 63 larcenies were reported. The estimate was made forall of 2005 by doubling that number because about the same number of larcenies occur

each sixth month period.

8.2 Do Percent Change for the following Years:

1. Between the 1st and 2nd year2. Between the 2nd and 3rd year3. Between the 3rd and 4th year4. Between the 1st and 4th year

Ex. 8.2: How to Calculate Percent Change

Percent Change equals

[(new figure – old figure) ÷ old figure] x 100

Ex: 15.4% = [(142-123)/123]*100

By HandBy Excel

Here is what the print out will look like if you do it correctly:Figure 8.2 Percent Change for Larceny at Citrus University

Time Period

Number of Larcenies per

1,000 Students

Percentage Change

Calculations Percentage Change

2002 1362003 123 -9.6% ((123-136)/136*1002004 142 15.4%  ((142-123)/123*100

2005e 126 -11.3% ((126-142)/142*100

Compare 2002 to 2005e -7.4% ((126-136)/136)*100Source: Citrus Univ. Security Dept. Annual Report, 2002-2004

Ex. 8.3: Deciding on the Years to Use Benchmarks

How many years will it take for the policy to have the intended impact?Choose 3 yearsCan be consecutive or notBenchmark can be the same or not

Citrus U. Example: If policy goes into effect in 2005, start with 2006, 2007, and 2008.

Exercise 8.4: Baseline ForecastTrend if policy does not go into effectLook at historical trend – assume what has happened in past will continueIf pattern has been consistent: use percent change or average percent change to make forecastIf historical data has inconsistent pattern: Follow ups and downs, keeping overall percentage change the same

Exercise 8.4: Baseline Forecast Cont’d

Consider conditions that will change the trend

Major outside event (ex: economic growth)Trend approaching outer limitDemographic factorsCyclical pattern

The Trend Line Graph

FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS IN CHAPTER 8!!!Graphs in 8.4 and 8.6 – use the corresponding instructions from the ch. 8 sectionsRead directions carefully + pay attention to detail

= NO POINTS LOST

Exercise 8.5: Choosing BenchmarksPay close attention to baseline forecastDecide how powerful factors contributing to problem areEstimate strength of government resources in implementingCompare to similar areas with similar policiesUse authoritative sources

Exercise 8.5: Choosing Benchmarks Cont’d

Use the methods in your justifications

Three comparisons required using data for at least one year.

Exercise 8.6

Using your Benchmark to support your policyPresentations to players should be short and to the point