Bell Labs Future X - Business Oregon5 © Nokia 2018 Bell Labs Consulting 134 56 61 68 41 79 39 31...

1 © Nokia 2018 Bell Labs Consulting

Bell Labs Future XThe Future of Massive Scale Broadband AccessOregon Broadband Advisory Council MeetingNovember 15, 2018

Marty GlapaPartner, Bell Labs FellowBell Labs Consulting1.303.517.1273


Bell Labs ConsultingAdvancing the Future X network vision & driving customer adoption

To lead the industry in understanding and realizing the full economic,

social and human potential of the next industrial revolution

Define the visioninvent solutions to

realize the vision

Analyzing transformation decisions needed to realize the full potential of the next industrial revolution

CTOBELL LABS RESEARCH

CUSTOMERS

BELL LABS CONSULTING


Agenda

1 Future X Architecture

2 Fixed Line Massive Scale Access

3 Fixed Wireless Massive Scale Access

4 IoT

5 Zones of Advantages Analysis Example

6 Conclusion


The essential perspective – Reaching 3 limits

New E2E automated solution

New distributed architecture

New industrial, infrastructure,

& enterprise value Consumer value creation

Scale, flexibility of current networks

TCO due to operational complexity

The Limits The Future X Network

1


134

56

61

68

41

79

39

31

194

479556

234322

200 207

The quest for new value

Cloud Services have

strong growth

New DSP* markets offer

significant revenue expansion

2015

1,000

556

234

207

2019

997

479

322

200

Data

Voice

TV

Traditional CSP service

revenues are flat

359

2015

CloudAdvertising

2019

VOD/streaming

Cloud Infra aaS

SaaS

BPaaS

Health 1590

Factories

Worksites

Cities

Logistics& Transport

1660

850

1210

930

930

560

170

3700

Low Estimate High Estimate($B) ($B) ($B)

19

25

160

Source: Bell Labs Consulting analysis, and McKinsey and Co analyses

1

* Digital service Provider


Future value

New business models and innovation

1

Fiber-basedFoundation for Business

Transformation and Innovation

5GLTE

FTTHFTTxCable

Fiber

LTE Smart City IOT as a Service

Smart lighting, gun shot detection

FTTx

City WiFi

Smart parking, security cameras, video analytics

Fiber

Cellular backhaul

Open Access

5G Open Access Provider

FTTx

Fiber

Utilities

Private LTE Network

Utilities

Fiber

Gas sites

LMR/Mobility

0123

Farming & Ranching


Future value drives new Future X network requirements

Edge CloudCore Cloud

Ban

dw

idth

Latency

10kbps

1Mbps

100Mbps

10Gbps

1ms10ms100ms1s10s 100us

Video

Things

VR/AR

SystemControl

Imperceptible latency

GB/user/Mo

2025

887

3,360

5,903

2020

Seemingly infinite capacity

360

4KModerate

VRUbiquitous

VR

Global-local alliance

Local delivery with global reach

• New global-local value chains

• Disruptive business models

• Local service performance, efficiency and customization

Central Cloud

Edge Cloud

Edge Cloud

Edge Cloud

1


Latency & bandwidth matter … for new digital experiences + saving time

Edge CloudCore Cloud

1ms10ms100ms1s10s 100us 10us

1kbps

10kbps

100kbps

1Mbps

10Mbps

100Mbps

1Gbps

10GbpsCloud RAN

360° video (hi-res)

Electric grid control

Cloud-assisted driving

Autonomous vehicles

Comms & Chatbots

4k Video streaming

Sensors

Home Sensors

Haptic VR

Remotetraining

360° video (free viewpoint)

Remote control vehiclesHD Video

streaming

360° video (lo-res)

Ban

dw

idth

Latency

Video VR/AR

People & Things

SystemControl

Virtual RAN

360° VR/AR

1


Future wireless requirements

New Platform (e.g. IoT)

Massivemachine

communication

ExtremeMobile

Broadband

Critical machine

communication

10 yearson battery

100 Mbpswhenever needed

Ultrareliability< 10-5 E2E

outage

10,000x more traffic

Ultra low cost

for massive machine

coms.

>10 Gbpspeak data rates

<1 msradio latency

Zero mobility

interruption

1,000,000devices per

km2

Ultra High-Capacity

Ultra Low-Latency

Ultra High QoE

Virtualization

Edge Cloud Architectural

Shift

Software Defined,

Programmable Network

Operations Agility

Future Network

Requirements

Architecture

Dimensions

Achieved by

Ultra Fast Broadband

Lowest cost/bit

Deep fiber Densification

1


Future-x Network Architecture: Cognitive, Converged And Cloud Optimized

Future services enabled by Digital Wholesale Service Provider

1

Expanding beyond connectivity value proposition requires transformation and driving new economics

Current model

CONTENT

CONTROL

CLOUD

CONNECTIVITY

Revenue potential

~8

0%

of

Re

ve

nu

e V

alu

e C

hain


Large Service Providers are re-evaluating owning all of the network

Passive

sharing

Active

sharing

Full

separation

Passive layerDucts, sewers, poles, dark fiber, wavelength

Retail serviceResidential, public, business services

Traditional

integrated

• Verizon• Orange

• Ooredoo +• Qatar NBN

• RSPs +• NBN

Australia

• IMDA• Lower

Austria• BT

Examples

Passive Layer

OpCo

RSP

Active layerNetwork equipment, business & operations

Preparing for a fiber-hungry 5G world

1


Creating value through massive fiber deployments and broadband accessEnabling growth and the 4th industrial revolution

A foundation for driving a nation’s digital economy, jobs

Wholesale-only or service-based broadband access

Public/private, government sponsored

Provide universal, reliable, wide-scale broadband access

Stimulate economic, educational, and social growth

Enhance regional and global competitiveness

Deep fiber penetration is the underlying enabler

2


Broadband access architectures: fiber to the most economical point

Multiple options to future-proof investments – no one solution fits all

Mix of fiber, DSL, cable and wireless is key to the operator’s business case

2

(cable)


Deep fiber is getting deeper to enable massive scale access

Ultra-small, ultra-close broadband access node

10-40 Gbps 10-40 Gbps

10 Gbps 1-10 Gbps

1 Gbps 100s Mbps

100s Mbps 10s Mbps

Peak BW/User

ADSL2+

<5 Km

Central Office

VDSL2

<1 Km

Cabinet

G.fast

<250 m

Distribution point

<50 m

XG-FastBuilding, curb

FTTH

FN

Node splits FN

vDAA

FTTH

FNCentralized CCAP

FTTH

Macro cell

<5 Km

Small cell

<500 m

mmWave

< 300 m

<100 - 300 m

hundreds of m

1 Km +

DSL Cable Wireless

Fiber to within ~100M of consumers, high spatial/spectral reuse, higher average bandwidths

2


Value creation via fiber and broadband requires a holistic network view

• Broadband Access

Today’s primary access network focus

• Massive scale access

• Edge clouds

• Smart network fabric

• Universally adaptive core

• Programmable network OS

• Operations

Future X holistic network

Lower TCO• Reduced cost/bit• Increased RoI• High asset

utilization

4th gen industrial automation• Low latency• High reliability• High resiliency• Massive bandwidth• Massive capacity

5G• IoT• Deep fiber• Billions of devices• Short-reach wireless

Multi-tenant sharing• Attract/retain

service providers• Efficient network

sharing

Shifting market places new requirements and expanded focus on networks

Market drivers/requirements

2


Network slicing – sharing the network

Service Provider

Central

intelligence

& orchestration

Education

Netco1…NetcoX

• Lower TCO

• Access network in virtual partitions• Leverage residential access for business

services, education, mobile transport

Government

• Co-invest• Sharing• Whole-

sale

• Provide other service providers with a virtual slice of your network

• Each provider only sees their slice• Share network, risk, and investment

Network slicing

Active Layer

Passive (fiber) Layer

Capacity slice Secure slice

Low-latency, high BW slice

K-12, universities

Emergencyservices

Immersive services

2


$1.3$1.5

$1.8$2.0

$2.3

$2.7

$3.1

$3.7

$4.4

$5.2

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E 2021 E

DA

LL

AR

AM

OU

NT

S IN

BIL

LIO

NS

Fixed Wireless Access

revenue projections

FWA in the US:

Key drivers:

- Demand for broadband in underserved and unserved areas

- Technology advancements

- Unlicensed/lightly licensed spectrum

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) business projections

Source: The Carmel Group

Major service providers are investigating different FWA technologies

2016 2021

Revenue $2.3B $5.2B

Subscribers 4.0M 8.1M

3


Fixed Wireless Access (FWA): short wireless connections / long fiber

5G

• 5G TTH

• Initially licensed 3.5 GHz

• ~5km range

• 1 Gbps peak speeds

• 1H19

• Future mm-wave 28 and 39 GHz

• <500m

• 2H19

• Wireless PON

• Unlicensed 60 GHz (802.11ad)

• Urban and suburban densities

• +/- 100 m range

• 1 Gbps peak speeds

• Commercial availability mid ‘18

WiGig LTE

• Licensed 1.8-3.7 GHz

• Suburban and rural densities

• <10 km range

• 100 Mbps + peak

• Available today in 1.8GHz

• 2.3 GHz mid ‘18

3


5G enables very high capacity and user throughput

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25

Ave

# S

up

po

rta

ble

UE

s/se

cto

r

ISD (Km)

25 Mbps sustained throughput @ 4.0 GHz with 100 MHz BW

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Ave

# S

up

po

rta

ble

UE

s/se

cto

r

ISD (Km)

25 Mbps sustained throughput @ 28 GHz with 800 MHz BW

Sample rural analysis results

Peak DL thrpt @ ISD 10 Km >500 Mbps in 80% of area Peak DL thrpt @ ISD 1.5 Km >4 Gbps in 80% area

3

+ Gbps peak throughput can be delivered in >80% of cell with 0.5km ISD


CBRS spectrum, 3.5 GHz3

Incumbents

Priority Access License

(PAL)

General Authorized Access

(GAA)

Sharing Model “Tiers”

USG and Fixed Satellite incumbents

Licensed (pending auction)

Up to 7 Licenses / 70 MHz PAL 40MHz limit for a single provider

Shared Managed Spectrum

opportunistic use

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

3.55 GHz 3.65 3.70

10 MHz

• FCC establishes Citizen Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) in April 2015

• 150 MHz of spectrum in 3.5 GHz band

• Dynamic spectrum sharing rules to enable flexible spectrum use with interference protection for incumbents


CBRS spectrum for fixed and mobile use3

CAT B

PALCAT B GAA

CAT A

PAL

CAT A

GAA

Introduced by FCC to manage

spectrum grants

• Access, interference, power,

frequencies

Incumbent spectrum use must be

detected by ESC in coastal zones for CAT B CBSD

• SAS will adjust tier 2-3 users to protect tier 1

Spectrum Access System (SAS) Environmental Sensing Capability (ESC)

• Indoor / Outdoor <6m

• EIRP < 30dBM/10MHzCAT A

• Outdoor mounted

• Professional Installed

• EIRP < 47dBm/10MHz

CAT B

Base Station Classes (CAT)

Small cell

Fixed Wireless


3


Operators are planning to leverage 5G for digital service provider transition3

Capacity Coverage Quality Operators

>24GHz 5G AT&T, TMO, VzW

5GHz Wifi/LAA* AT&T, TMO

Future 3.7-4.2 5G AT&T, Sprint, TMO, VzW

CBRS (3.5 GHz) AT&T, Sprint, TMO, VzW

2.5GHz LTE/5G Sprint

Sub 1GHz LTE/5G AT&T, TMO, VzW

Spectrum is a key asset to make a difference with 5G

What is the principal spectrum focus for US national operators?

*License assisted access (licensed + unlicensed spectrum)


5G will require deep fiber penetrationAnd lots of it – example analysis

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

10000 5000 1000 500 200 100

Fib

er

dis

tan

ce

in K

m

ISD distance in m

Modeling parameters

• Fiber connecting wireless cells

• 10 Km to 100m cell ISD

• 10 Km square coverage area

• Fiber home runs from each cell to center of coverage area

• Optimization could include intermediate aggregation points, fiber sharing, etc.

Rural Urban/dense urban

Fiber requirements (Km) based on cell ISD (m)

3


The future vision of IoT: enabling technology in the 4th Industrial Revolution that will deliver societal change

4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

IoT

Co

nn

ect

ion

pe

r n

on

-Io

T C

on

ne

ctio

n

Co

nn

ect

ion

s, e

xclu

din

g Io

T [M

]

2G 3G4G

5G

Total Connections

IoT connection (as % of non-IoT connections

Linear business models Enterprise driven, multisided business models

The right IoT strategy 6%-10% annual revenue growth by 2024


IoT driving the human and business value

Automotive

• V2X

• Service fleet

• Trace & track

Utilities Public safety

• Smart meter

• Service fleet

• Leakage

• Situational awareness

• Mission control

• Smart vehicle

Cities Health Agriculture/Ranching

• Traffic and parking

• Bus shelter

• UAV mgmt

• Preventative

• Remote care

• Rural care

• Precision farming

• Biometrics

• Crop image analysis

V2X: Vehicle to anything UAV: Un-manned aerial vehicles

4


IoT use case example: agriculture

Biometrics, Livestock Tracking,Feed monitoring

Aerial Surveys (Drone)

Soil Monitoring(Chemistry, Moisture, …)

Weather Monitoring (Temperature,Humidity, Wind, Light Intensity, …)

Crop Image Analysis(Visible/Infrared Spectrum, Crop Health,Pest Monitoring, Disease Monitoring)

Content (Data) Control

Precision, Location-based CropYield Measurement, TelematicsAgriculture Robots

Preventive MaintenanceRobot Control (Harvest,Weeding)

Precision fertilization

Feed Control, Drug deliveryFood Supplement deliverySelective Breading

Precision irrigation

Precision pest control

Precision seeding

Digital ValueOpportunities

Higher Yields

Lower Resource Usage:

• Seed

• Feed

• Water

• Fertilizer

• Pesticides

• Veterinary Costs

4


IoT use case example: precision farming

Soil Sensors Tractor-basedUltra-sonic Sensors

Crop Health Sensors

Spectral ImagingCamera

Location-based application of fertilizers,insecticides

Ultrasonic sensors ensure fertilizers, insecticidesapplied to plants (not gaps)

Tractor healthmonitoring

(preventativemaintenance)

Cameras identify regions with diseased plants,weed-infested areas

Benefits:• Higher crop yields• Lower fertilizer, insecticide consumption• Higher equipment utilization (preventative maintenance)

4


IoT use case example: wine production

Chardonnay Pinot Noir

Pinot NoirMerlot

Syrah

Cabernet Zinfandel

Savignon blanc

Watering, spraying of herbicides or fungicides foreach block based on sensor data to fully optimizegrowing conditions for all plants under cultivation

Amount of water different grape plantsrequire depends on the kind and quality of winethat will be produced from them

Growers cultivate different wine grapevarieties in adjacent plots.

Real-time data from different plots collected andanalyzed in realtime

From “State of the Market: Internet of Things 2016,Accelerating innovation, productivity and value,” Verizon whitepaper

Benefits:• Increased yields, lower variability in quality• Lower resource consumption (water, herbicides, fungicides)

4


The raw cost of various broadband access technologies

Suburban – 1,000 homes/sq.Km

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Re

lati

ve

Ca

pe

x

pe

r su

b.

Home connect & Install

Home Equipment

Cabinets/POPs/Splitters

Network Electronics & Optics

Civil Works and Cables

Urban – 1,500 homes/sq.Km

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Re

lati

ve

Ca

pe

x

pe

r su

b.

Home connect & Install

Home Equipment

Cabinets/POPs/Splitters

Network Electronics & Optics

Civil Works and Cables

Higher density improves cost per subscriber

5


Metro broadband access Zones of Analysis analysis summary example1 Gbps peak bandwidth

Lowest TCO Solution

HH Density (per sq. Km)

Take rate

500 2000 4000 6000 8000

10% WPON

20% HFC DAA

30%

40% FTTH

50%

Modeling parameters

• Comparison of architectures

• FWA - 60 GHz (WPON)

• FTTH

• Copper - G.Fast

• HFC with DAA node

• Buried fiber

• Variable housing density

• Variable take rates

Metro ZoA analysis summary

5


Rural broadband access Zones of Analysis analysis summary example

5G-based FWA ZoA analysis summary

LTE-based FWA ZoA analysis summarySustained Mbps vs. HH density Lowest TCO

SolutionHH Density (per sq. Km)

Sustained bit rate per HH connected

10 50 100 500

3 FWA Cu+Cu+Fiber

6

12

25 Cu+Fiber

Lowest TCO Solution

HH Density (per sq. Km)

Sustained bit rate per HH connected

10 50 100 500

3 FWA

6

12 Cu+Cu+Fiber

25 Cu+Fiber

Modeling parameters

• Comparison of architectures

• FWA – LTE (1.8 Ghz/40MHz)

• FWA - 5G (4 GHz/100 MHz)

• ISDs range from 10 Km to 1 Km

• FTTH

• Copper – VDSL (copper, fiber, µwave to OLT)

• HFC with DAA node

• Buried fiber

• 50% take rate

• Variable sustained bit rate

Remote VDSL

nodeOLT

VDSL CPE

Remote VDSL

cabinet

CuCu bonding Fiber

Cu+Cu+Fiber

OLTVDSL CPE

Remote VDSL

cabinet

Cu FiberCu+Fiber

5


FWA (5G, LTE) / FTTx copper

DSL/FTTx Fiber to the home

Cable

FTTH / cable, 5GFTTx (G.Fast) / cable, FWA, 5G

Mobile5G/LTE for mobile ultra-broadband

Summary

Fiber to the home

Each architecture/technology has it’s Zone(s) of Advantage – no single solution

6

Rural: Urban:Suburbs:

Bell Labs Future X - Business Oregon5 © Nokia 2018 Bell Labs Consulting 134 56 61 68 41 79 39 31...

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