Bejing Outreach to Nova Scotia
23
CHINA’S NEW NORMAL: WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR CANADA? Guy Saint-Jacques Ambassador of Canada to China Nova Scotia February 2015
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Transcript of Bejing Outreach to Nova Scotia
CHINA’S NEW NORMAL:WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR CANADA?
Guy Saint-Jacques
Ambassador of Canada to China Nova Scotia
February 2015
TODAY’S PRESENTATION
Xi Jinping’s priorities
The economic situation
The bilateral relationship
XI JINPING: HIS LEADERSHIP
• Consolidation
• Anti-corruption drive
• Strengthening of the Party
DOMESTIC SECURITY
• National Security
• Human rights and freedom of expression
FOREIGN POLICY
• Prestige
• Stability
REFORM?
• Rule of Law
• Education/Health
• Environment
ECONOMIC RESULTS FOR 2014
GDP growth lowest since 1990
World’s 2nd largest economy (value over USD10 trillion)
ECONOMIC RESULTS FOR 2014
« New Normal »
Structural changes and silver linings
Ambitious reform toward sustainable growth
Source: csstoday.com
ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL REFORMS: WHAT HAS BEEN DONE SO FAR?
Administrative reform
Fiscal reform –Local government debt management
State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) reform
Hukou/Rural land/Social safety net reforms –Urbanization
Financial reform
Source: Getty
WHAT IT MEANS FOR FOREIGN/CANADIAN COMPANIES?
The reform process will take time.
China still matters.
Economic ties with China will only expand.
Sources: embassy photos, theglobeandmail.com
WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2015?
New growth target
13th Five-Year Plan for 2016-2020
Delicate balance between reform and economic stability
Toward better quality growth, driven by consumption and innovation Source: Dreamstime.com
THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
• 2014 : A Busy Year
• PM Visit: Joint List of Outcomes (JLO)
THE CANADA FUND FOR LOCAL INITIATIVES
• Ethnic minority Development
• Judicial reform and rights protection for vulnerable groups
• Accountability and transparency
STUDY PERMITS ISSUED IN CHINA (2007-2013)
10,120
13,78016,465
17,780
21,995
25,010
29,415
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Stu
dy
Pe
rmit
s is
sue
d
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
CHINESE STUDENTS IN CANADA (2007-2013)
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
41037 4211649900
5690967063
80638
96270
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
to Canada in Canada
CHINESE VISITORS TO CANADA (2007-2014)
151 159 160193
249
298334
406
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(est.)
Nu
mb
er
of
visi
tors
(th
ou
san
ds)
• Since ADS status in 2010, arrivals have more than doubled.• In 2013, Chinese tourism contributed $603 M to the Canadian economy, up 24.2% over
2012. In 2014, the estimated contribution is $725 M, up 20% over 2013.
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
WEEKLY VISA APPLICATION INTAKE IN CHINA
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
0 10 20 30 40 50
China 2010 China 2011 China 2012 China 2013 China 2014 China 2015
YTD CANADIAN MERCHANDISE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS TO CHINA
$18.5B $17.6B
$48.3 B
$53.6 B
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Jan-Nov 2013 Jan-Nov 2014
Bill
ion
s
Exports
Imports
YTD NOVA SCOTIA EXPORTS TO CHINA
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
FishPulp of Wood
CopperFruits/Nuts
Aluminum
$81 M
$56 M
$15 M
$4 M$6 M
$121 M
$87 M
$18 M
$5 M
$4 M
Mill
ion
s
Jan-Nov 2013
Jan-Nov 2014
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CANADIAN SME GATEWAY TO CHINA
CANADA IN CHINA: OUR PRESENCE ON THE GROUND
BEIJING
Chongqing
Guangzhou
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Shenyang
Shenzhen
Nanjing
Qingdao
Wuhan
Chengdu
Tianjin
Xiamen
Xi’an
Hangzhou
CitiesPopulation (millions)
Economy (US$
billions)
Provincial GDP
growth
Comparable GDP
Tianjin 9.9 205 13.80% Nigeria
Xi'an 8 69 12.90% Pakistan
Chengdu 11.7 129 12.60% Spain
Xiamen 1.9 45 11.40% Malaysia
Wuhan 8.2 127 11.30% Spain
Nanjing 6.4 114 10.10%South Korea
Qingdao 7.7 116 9.80% Mexico
Shenyang 7.3 105 9.50% Indonesia
Shenzhen 2.9 206 8.20% Australia
Hangzhou 7 124 8.00% Iran
$37.4
$8.8
$2.3 $2.1 $0.5
AB
BC
ON
QC
Other
By Province/Territory (US$ Billion)
Source: University of Alberta China Institute, February 2015
22%
35%
31%
7% 5%
By Province/Territory (% of Deals)
Chinese Investment in Canada
50%
22%
6%
5%
17% Metals andMineralsEnergy
Health &BiotechnologyInformationTechnologyOthers
By Sector (% of Deals)
LOOKING AHEAD
• Joint List of Outcomes (JLO) Implementation
• 45 Years of Diplomatic Relations
