Beijing’s Energy Revolution Is Finally Gaining Serious Momentum

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    1 Center for American Progress |  Beijing’s Energy Revolution is Finally Gaining Serious Momentum

    Beijing’s Energy Revolution is

    Finally Gaining Serious MomentumBy Melanie Hart December 3, 2015

    Te paries o he U.N. Framework Convenion on Climae Change, or UNFCCC, are

    meeing in Paris o negoiae a new global climae deal. Negoiaors are aiming o lock in

    a new deal ha will ake effec in 2020, which is when curren UNFCCC commimens

    are se o expire. Te prospecs or locking in a srong and comprehensive global climae

    deal are beter oday han a any oher poin in hisory. Ta is because, his year, bohhe Unied Saes and China are collaboraing o bring boh developed and developing

    naions o he bargaining able, andor he firs imenearly all o hose naions are

    conribuing o he global climae effor in some way.1 

    Chinese leadership has been paricularly criical in galvanizing acion among develop-

    ing naions. China has commited o double he nonossil porion o is energy mix ,

    peak is carbon emissions by 2030, and make “bes effors” o hi boh arges as soon

    as possible.2 Tose are significan commimens, and China’s willingness o make hose

    commimens a ull year beore he Paris alks pressured oher developing naions o pu

    heir own acion plans on he able.

    Here in he Unied Saes, here are observers who view China’s commimens wih

    a degree o skepicism. Some observers argue ha, since China’s arge dae is 2030,

    Beijing now has a 15-year grace period o coninue wih business-as-usual coal con-

    sumpion and carbon emissions.3 Ta argumen reflecs a undamenal misundersand-

    ing abou wha i akes o slow, sop, and reduce he emissions o a large economy in

    order o achieve a 2030 emissions arge. I also reflecs an oudaed undersanding o

    Chinese energy markes. Alhough recen press repors show ha China has upwardly

    revised some o is previous coal consumpion saisics, his issue brie documens sig-

    nifican changes occurring in he Chinese economy o reduce coal use and emissions.4 

    Te realiy is ha major changes are already underway in China, and hose changes bode

     well or a successul conclusion o he climae conerence currenly underway in Paris.

    Insead o waiing unil 2030or even waiing unil he Paris negoiaions conclude

    Beijing is already moving ull speed ahead o radically rebalance is energy economy.

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    Skepics ofen poin o Chinese coal consumpion as evidence ha he naion is ail-

    ing o address climae emissions.5 Indeed, coal marke paterns are a good indicaor o

    China’s policy progress, and hose paterns have shifed dramaically in recen years.

    For example:

    • Chinese coal consumpion ell 2.9 percen in 2014, marking he firs all in consumpion

    in 15 years.6

    • China’s coal impors ell 11 percen in 2014 and are down 37 percen hus ar in 2015.7 

    • In 2014 Beijing shu down more han 1,000 coal mines, 5 gigawats o hermal power

    capaciy, and 55,000 small-scale coal-fired indusrial boilers o reduce coal polluion.8 

    •  A he regional level, Beijing is rolling ou as-rack provincial- and municipal-

    level coal-conrol and emission-reducion policies ha are puting some Chinese

    provinces and ciies on a pah o peak emissions as early as 2020 or 2022. Te

    regions covered under his program accoun or over 66 percen o he naion’sgross domesic produc, or GDP.9

    • China now has more han 444 gigawats o renewable energy capaciywhich is more

    han he combined oal 2012 elecriciy generaion capaciy o Japan, Indonesia, and

    he Unied Kingdomand around 40 percen o oal 2012 U.S. generaion capaciy. 10

    China sill has a long way o go o rebalance is energy economy bu, as o 2015, he

    ship is urning. Despie China’s large coal base, he growh raes or coal producion,

    consumpion, and impors are rapidly declining. 11 Meanwhile, clean energy capaciy

    is growing a raes ha exceed 30 percen o 60 percen per year in some secors. Tis bodes well or China’s uure emissions rajecory, as well as or China’s abiliy o play a

    srong leadership role a he Paris climae summi.

    Tis issue brie will ouline China’s recen energy policy developmens, new marke

    rends, and how hese changes are likely o effec China’s uure carbon emissions.

    Chinese coal consumption enters downward spiral

    Coal-fired power is a major conribuor o air polluion in China, and ciizen disconen

    over air polluion is driving a sea change in how he Chinese Communis Pary views

    and regulaes coal. Sep by sep, Chinese regulaors are finally dismanling he incenive

    sysems ha drove coal consumpion growh in previous decades and urned China ino

    he world’s larges coal consumer.

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    In Sepember 2013, Chinese leaders issued a new “Acion Plan on Prevenion and

    Conrol o Air Polluion” ha as-racks polluion improvemens along China’s easern

    seaboard, a region ha accouns or more han 60 percen o China’s GDP and more

    han hal o he naion’s oal coal consumpion.12 Te plan imposes a hos o new coal

    conrol measures, including regional consumpion caps; a ban on new coal-fired power

    plans in major meropolian areas along he easern seaboard; much more sringen

    emission sandards or exising plans; and he orced closure o housands o inefficienindusrial coal boilers.13 In lae 2014 and early 2015, Chinese leaders rolled ou anoher

    policy package ha imposes a new value-added ax on coal producion; a new ban on

    he sale, impor, and producion o high-emission coal; and a new environmenal pro-

    ecion law ha gives China’s environmenal regulaors he auhoriy o impose much

    higher fines on polluion violaors.14

    Tese new policies are driving down Chinese coal demand, puting downward pressure

    on coal prices, and riggering seep losses across China’s coal secor. As o he hird quar-

    er o 2015, around hal o China’s publicly lised coal companies are reporing losses

    or he firs hree quarers o he year.15

     Profis a China Shenhua Energy CompanyLimiedChina’s larges coal producerell 45 percen in he firs hal o 2015.16 

    Heilongjiang LongMay Mining Holding Group, one o China’s larges mining conglom-

    eraes, recenly announced plans o lay off 100,000 workers.17 China’s coal impors ell

    11 percen in 2014 and were down 37 percen in he firs hree quarers o 2015. 18 

    I is imporan o noe ha coal is sill he bigges driver in China’s energy mixand ha

     will coninue or some ime. Coal accouned or 66 percen o China’s oal energy mix and

    67 percen o he counry’s oal insalled power generaion capaciy in 2014.19 However,

    alhough China sill has a large coal base, he growh raes or producion, consumpion,

    and impors are anking. Te marke looks big rom aar bu i is shrinking rapidly.

    Note: Coal consumption growth rates incorporate China's 2015 coal data corrections.

    Sources: 2005–2013 growth rates calculated using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014  (2015),

    on file with author; 2014 growth rates were taken from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, "Statistical Communique of the People’s Republic of

    China on the 2014 National Economic and Social Development," Press release, February 26, 2015, available at http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/Press-

    Release/201502/t20150228_687439.html.

    FIGURE 1

    Downward spiral in China's coal market

    From declining growth to market contraction

    -3%

    0%

    3%

    6%

    9%

    12%

    15%

    Annual consumption growth

    Annual production growth

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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     Wha conuses many oreign observers is he ac ha China is sill adding new coal

    capaciy. In 2014, China ook hundreds o exising coal plans offline bu also added

    around 39 gigawats o new coal capaciy.20 Te new capaciy is coming online or wo

    reasons: Firs, Chinese leaders are ordering local officials o ear down small emission-

    inensive power plans and replace hem wih more efficien plans. So, some o he

    new capaciy is replacemen capaciymuliple small plans are shu down and a

    larger plan is buil o replace hem.

    Second, some local governmens are building more plans han hey acually need. I

    akes ime o shif consrucion aciviy o ollow marke-demand rends, paricularly in

    China where he financing or hese projecs is no always marke-based. Some local offi-

    cials are overbuilding simply because hey have he capial o do so, and ha is creaing

    a massive capaciy bubble in China, driving down plan-uilizaion raes, as well as he

    generaion o profis naionwide. Te average uilizaion rae or China’s hermal-power

    generaions was 54 percen in 2014he lowes rae since China firs began is reorm

    and opening process in he lae 1970s.21

    Overcapaciy in coal-fired power mirrors a patern ha is playing ou in seel, alumi-

    num, and oher heavy-indusry secors: China’s local governmens are slow o adjus

    plan consrucion o fi reduced marke demand.22 Tey add more producion capaciy

    han he marke can absorb and ha drives down profis naionwide. In seel, cemen,

    and oher heavy-indusry secors, Chinese leaders have issued mandaes o curail new

    consrucion and orce he closure o exising plans.23 Similar edics are likely o come

    down or coal fired-power as well. In he mining secor, Beijing is already ordering coal

    mines o reduce producion or close down enirely.24 New power plan projecs are

    already banned along China’s easern seaboard. A naural nex sep is o exend he new

    consrucion bans wesward ino China’s cenral provinces, which is somehing ha islikely o be included in China’s new five-year developmen plan ha will ake effec in

    2016 and run hrough 2020. Chinese regulaors are already moving in ha direcion:

    Las week, Beijing ighened he approval process or new coal-fired power plans and

    ordered local governmens o deny consrucion permis or coal-fired power projecs in

    regions wih excess coal capaciy.25 

    As coal contracts, clean energy gains momentum

     As coal winds down, clean energy is ramping up. As o year-end 2014, China had more

    han 444 gigawats o insalled renewable energy capaciywhich is more han he

    combined oal 2012 elecriciy generaion capaciy o Japan, Indonesia, and he Unied

    Kingdomand around 40 percen o oal 2012 U.S. generaion capaciy.26 China’s growh

    raes in clean energy capaciy are ruly saggering. Growh raes or grid-conneced solar,

     wind, and nuclear energy in 2014 were 67 percen, 25.6 percen, and 36.1 percen, respec-

    ively.27 In comparison, China’s hermal capaciy grew jus 5.9 percen in 2014 despie an

    overall 8.7 percen expansion in he naion’s oal power generaion capaciy.28 

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    Clean energy growh is poised o accelerae urher beween now and 2020. By he end

    o 2020, China is aiming o riple is grid-conneced solar capaciy rom 26 gigawats in

    2014 o 100 gigawats by 2020; double is grid-conneced wind capaciy rom 95 gigawats

    o 200 gigawats; nearly riple is nuclear capaciy rom 19 gigawats o 58 gigawats; and

    expand hydropower capaciy by around 16 percen, rom 300 gigawats o 350 gigawats.29 

    Hydropower is currenly China’s larges renewable energy sourceaccouning or

    around 68 percen o China’s oal renewable producion in 2014bu hydro expan-

    sion is limied by geography and growing public resisance o new dam projecs. Goingorward, China’s bigges energy growh areas will be in nuclear, wind, and solar energy. 30 

    FIGURE 2

    China's installed power capacity growth

    Percent change from 2013 to 2014

    Note: Data incorporate 2015 statistical updates.

    Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, "Statistical Communique of the People's Republic of China on the 2014 National Economic and Social

    Development," Press release, February 26, 2015, available at http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201502/t20150228_687439.html.

    Grid-connected solar

    Nuclear

    Grid-connected wind

    Total power generation

    Hydropower

    Thermal

    67.0%

    36.1%

    25.6%

    8.7%

    7.9%

    5.9%

    FIGURE 3

    China's expanding renewable energy capacity

    Sources: 2005–2013 renewable capacity data were taken from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, "China Statistical Yearbook 2014," available

    at http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2014/indexeh.htm (last accessed November 2015); 2014 data were taken from the National Bureau of Statistics

    of China, "Statistical Communique of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 N ational Economic and Social Development," National Bureau of

    Statistics of China, Press release, February 26, 2015, available at http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201502/t20150228_687439.html.

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Hydropower

    Wind

    Nuclear

    Solar

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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    Chinese leaders are aiming or price pariy beween wind generaion and coal-fired gen-

    eraion by 2020.31 o achieve ha goal, hey will have o raise coal prices, and ha is one

    reason why Chinese leaders are closing down coal mines and imposing new value-added

    coal producion axes as previously menioned.

    China’s electricity grid overhaul prioritizeslow-cost wind and solar over coal

    Clean energy growh is no a new sory in Chinaparicularly in hydropower and wind

    energybu grid connecion problems have kep renewable energy sources rom posing

    a rue challenge o coal. Ta is finally changing.

    For decades, China’s bigges energy problem was always ensuring adequae supply. Beijing

     waned o incenivize coal plan consrucion, so Chinese leaders ordered uiliy compa-

    nies o sign conracs wih new coal-fired power plans in which he uiliy promised o

    purchase a minimum amoun o power on an annual basis rom every plan.32

     Tose con-racs provided guaraneed reurns or coal plans bu soon clogged China’s elecric grid

     wih coal-fired power.33 Even i uiliies waned o purchase more renewable energy or shif

    power purchases oward more efficien coal plans, hey did no have he abiliy o do so.

    In Sepember 2015, Chinese Presiden Xi Jinping announced ha Beijing will finally

    move he naion oward a so-called “green dispach” model ha prioriizes power

    sources based on he cos o producing an incremenal amoun o elecriciy.34 Te incre-

    menal cos or a wind or solar arm is zero, because once he plan is up and running

    he wind and he sun are he primary inpus. In conras, coal-fired plans mus purchase

    new coal resources or every uni o energy hey produce, so a coal-fired plan will always be more expensive o run incremenally. A green dispach sysem would effecively

    move coal rom he ron o he prioriy line o he backand ha would shif inves-

    men incenives rom coal projecs oward renewable projecs, hus urher acceleraing

    China’s energy ransiion. Beijing has no ye announced a arge dae or naion-wide

    dispach reorm. Implemenaion deails are likely o emerge when Chinese leaders

    publicize he naion’s 2016-2020 developmen plan nex March.

    Chinese regulaors are also experimening wih new uiliy pricing reorms ha are

    expeced o lower renewable power inegraion coss and urher improve marke incen-

    ives or renewable power in China.35 Under he exising sysem, China’s wo monopoly

    uiliy companiesSae Grid Corporaion o China and China Souhern Power

    Gridbuy and sell power a sae-se raes and capure he difference as profis. Boh

    uiliies have an incenive o spend as litle as possible on renewable power inegraion

    and repor inflaed coss o Beijing. By claiming ha renewable inegraion is prohibi-

    ively expensive, he uiliies can lobby Chinese auhoriies o se end-users’ raes as high

    as possible, widening heir profi margins and making renewable energy appear pro-

    hibiively expensive. Chinese regulaors have long suspeced ha he uiliies are doing

    exacly ha, bu i has been hard o prove.36 

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    Sae Grid Corporaion o China, he larger o he wo uiliies, is a verically inegraed

     behemoh wih nonransparen cos srucures.37 Sae Grid runs 98 subsidiary busi-

    ness unis ha engage in aciviies ranging rom elecriciy ransmission o equipmen

    manuacuring and aviaion.38 China’s pricing auhoriies suspec ha some o he

    so-called coss associaed wih connecing renewable power o he grid are inefficien-

    cies associaed wih his business model. o address ha problem, Beijing is currenly

    piloing a new reorm program ha will cap uiliy profis and esablish sandard gridaccess ees or ransmiting and disribuing power.39 Consumers will be able o negoi-

    ae power purchases direcly wih individual generaion companies, hus building in

    price compeiion among generaors. Once hose direc purchase deals are in place, he

    generaor and consumer will simply pay he uiliy company a grid access ee o send he

    power rom seller o buyer. Tis regulaory shif will likely be paired wih new mandaes

    or quickly linking up new renewable generaion sources, addressing one o he larges

     botlenecks in China’s renewable energy deploymen.

    Clean air now a survival issue for the Chinese Communist Party

    Some Wesern observers sill assume his progress is a momenary bliphey are sill

     waiing or China o shif back o he old energy model ha prioriizes supply over

    susainabiliy. Wha hose observers do no realize is ha China’s domesic poliical

    environmen will no longer suppor he old model. China suffered wo massive air

    polluion incidensin he ourh quarer o 2011 and he firs quarer o 2013ha

    flipped he poliical calculus on air polluion.40 Prior o hese recen incidens, Chinese

    leaders wihheld inormaion on local air qualiy, making i nearly impossible or heir

    ciizens o hold he governmen o accoun on air polluion issues.41 Afer he polluion

    crises o 2011 and 2013, Chinese ciizens demanded greaer ransparency. Public ou-rage reached a level ha convinced Beijing o change course. Saring in 2012, Beijing

    swiched rom wihholding air-qualiy daa o insalling more han 1,000 air-monioring

    devices across he naion ha provide ciizens wih real-ime daa on a hos o major air

    polluans.42 Beijing also rolled ou a groundbreaking new air-qualiy acion plan ha

    commis he naion o rapid air-qualiy improvemens, paricularly along he easern

    seaboard where ciizen disconen and polluion levels are highes.43

    I is imporan o undersand ha he Chinese Communis Pary has ied is own hands

    on his issue. Chinese leaders are seting ambiious new air-qualiy improvemen goals

    and giving heir ciizens a very accurae yardsick or measuring progress. Tey are doing

    so because hey believe ha, i hey ail o address air polluion, hey will ace a major

    ciizen uprising. Air qualiy is now a survival issue or he Chinese Communis Pary

     which was no he case beore 2012. Since 2012, Chinese leaders a all levels have made

    a very public commimen o address his problem.44 Failure o mee his commimen

     would hreaen regime survival, which is why Beijing is finally geting serious abou

    reigning in coal emissions.

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    Tis poliical shif on air polluion parallels a broader poliical shif on China’s overall

    economic growh. China’s old economic growh modelbased on fixed inrasruc-

    ure invesmen, heavy-indusry producion, and expor manuacuringis basically

    deunc.45 Inrasrucure projecs are no longer profiable. wo decades ago, urning a

    dir road ino a wo-lane highway brough big economic gains; now he inrasrucure

    is largely in place, and urning a six-lane highway ino an eigh-lane highway does no

     bring he same rewards. Ta means China can no longer absorb large amouns o seel,cemen, and oher inrasrucure inpusand he expor markes or hose producs

    are drying up as well.46 Chinese labor coss are also rising, so i is harder or he naion

    o compee in global manuacuring markes based on coss alone.47 Wih China’s old

    drivers o economic growh drying up, Beijing desperaely needs o push he economy

    oward a new modeland China’s energy revoluion plays a criical role.

    In secor afer secor, Beijing is working o downshif old growh engines and kick-sar

    new ones. Many o he conracing indusriescemen, seel, and ironare some o

    China’s bigges coal consumers. As hose indusries conrac, coal demand dries up and

    he coal secor shrinks as a resul. Beijing is also inenionally racheing up coal priceso make hose energy-inensive secors less compeiive, as well as o make coal less

    compeiive vis-à-vis renewables.48 

    o be sure, here are sill uncerainies ha bear waching. For example, economiss

    ofen deec inconsisencies in China’s naional economic daaincluding energy

    daaso a dose o cauion is warraned when assessing Chinese marke flucuaions.

    Earlier his year, he Naional Bureau o Saisics o China had o adjus he counry’s

    coal consumpion saisics in order o address errors ha were passed up rom he prov-

    inces and made heir way ino he naional accouns. 49 

    Note: Coal consumption growth rates incorporate China's 2015 coal data corrections.

    Sources: Data on steel, cement, and iron were taken from National Bureau of Statistics of China, "National Data," available at http://data.stats.gov-

    .cn/english/index.htm (last accessed November 2015); 2001–2013 data on coal consumption were taken from National Bureau of Statistics of

    China, China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014 (2015), on file with author; 2014 coal consumption data were taken from National Bureau of Statistics

    of China, "Statistical Communique of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 National Economic and Social Development," Press release,

    February 26, 2015, available at http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201502/t20150228_687439.html.

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    FIGURE 4

    China's economic rebalance is driving down

    heavy industry growth and coal demand

    Rolled Steel   Cement Pig Iron CoalConsumption

    16.4%

    9.5%

    3.9%

    8.0%

    10.8%

    2.3%

    13.9%

    5.7%

    0%

    10.0%

    6.8%

    -2.9%

    Average growth, 2001–2010

    Average growth, 2011–2013

    Annual growth, 2014

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    Beijing coninually audis he naion’s energy saisics o ideniy and proacively

    address hese daa issues, and Chinese officials generally publicize correcions in a

    relaively ransparen manner. I was he Naional Bureau o Saisics o China, no

    oreign observers, who discovered he recen coal daa problems and issued revised coal

    consumpion records.50 Tose correcions are helpul, bu i can be hard o predic when

    anoher such correcion is impending.

    China’s naional saisics are difficul o veriyparicularly or oreign observers who

    lack access o he naion’s inernal accounsbu here are verifiable ouchsones ha

    analyss can use o riangulae assessmens o Chinese economic shifs. For example,

    as menioned above, job losses in China’s coal secor, declining profi margins across

    muliple Chinese coal companies, and rapidly declining coal expors o China rom coal-

    supply naions such as Ausralia all provide evidence o suppor he ac ha Chinese

    coal consumpion is on he decline. As o 2015, muliple rend lines using daa rom

    muliple sourcesincluding sources ouside Chinaare all moving in a sunningly

    progressive direcion, and he recen Naional Bureau o Saisics o China coal daa

    adjusmens did no aler ha ac.51

     

    Regardless o he angle used o view China’s energy markewheher rom coal consump-

    ion daa, coal impor daa, coal company profis, or he indusries ha consume coali

    is clear ha coal growh has allen off a cliff, renewable energy is surging, and, as will be dis-

    cussed below, China is on rack o no only mee he climae commimens is negoiaors

    are puting on he able in Paris bu also o poenially do so ahead o schedule.

    China’s coming emission peak: Height and downward trajectory

    is critical for global climate effort

    Te big quesion ha many inernaional observers are concerned abou is wha hese

    energy policy changes mean in erms o China’s overall climae emissions. In November

    2014, China commited o peak carbon emissions by 2030 and o make “bes effors” o

    peak earlier.52 China currenly appears on rack o bea ha goal. Many models sugges

    ha China’s carbon emissions will peak approximaely 10 years afer coal use peaks.53 

    Chinese coal consumpion ell in 2014, and i ha urns ou o be a persisen rend,

    2013 may urn ou o be China’s peak year or coal consumpion. I so, China could be

    on rack o peak carbon emissions around 2025.54 

    Beijing’s economic planners are already ploting wha a pre-2030 peak migh look like.

    China’s uure emission rajecories are difficul o predic because recen policy shifs

    are bending he emission curve and making hisorical rend lines useless or projecing

    uure aciviy.55 Along he easern seaboard, or example, China’s air-qualiy acion plan

    now bans new coal-fired power plans. Emission rajecories beore and afer ha ban

    are radically differen so planners are being exceedingly cauious abou projecing wha

    emissions may look like five, 10, or 15 years down he road.

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    FIGURE 5

    China’s fast-track emission reduction zones

    New policies maximize climate ambition in high-growth areas

    and create roadmap for other regions to follow

    Sichuan

    Hunan

    Hainan

    Tianjin

    Liaoning

    Hebei

    Shandong

    Zhejiang

    Taiwan

    Guangzhou

    Zhenjiang

    Wuhan

    Shenzhen

    Guiyang

    Yan’an

    Beijing

    Shanghai

    Jinchang

    Shaanxi

    Guandong

    Jiangsu

    JilinJilin City

    Chongqing

    2017 regional coal-control targets

    ■ Beijing: Cap annual coal consumption at

    10 million tons to make a 56 percent cut

    from 2012 levels

    ■ Tianjin: Cap annual coal consumption at around

    43 million tons to make a 19 percent cut from

    2012 levels

    ■ Hebei: Cap annual coal consumption at

    271 million tons to make a 15 percent cut

    from 2012 levels

    ■ Shandong: Reduce coal consumption to

    20 million tons below 2012 levels

    ■ Jiangsu: Reduce coal consumption to

    no more than 65 percent of the energy mix

    ■ Shanghai: Transition from growing to

    declining coal consumption

    For the full list of source information, see Appendix.

    Pre-2030 CO2 emission peak commitments

    ● 2020 

    Beijing, by around 2020

    Guangzhou, by the end of 2020

    Zhenjiang, in 2020

    ● 2022 

    Wuhan, around 2022

    Shenzhen, by 2022

    ● 2025 

    Guiyang, in 2025

    Jilin City, before 2025

    Jinchang, before 2025

    ● 2029/pre-2030 

    Yan’an, before 2029

    Sichuan Province, before 2030

    These coal-control and early-peak regions produced more than

    66 percent of China’s gross domestic product, or GDP, in 2014

    ■ Zhejiang: Cap consumption at 2012 levels

    and 50 percent of the energy mix

    ■ Guangdong: Reduce coal use to no more

    than 36 percent of overall energy mix

    ■ Liaoning: Limit growth to around

    2 percent per year and cap total

    consumption at 201 million tons

    ■ Shaanxi: Cap coal consumption at 138

    million tons and 67 percent of the energy mix

    ■ Chongqing: Cap coal consumption at 53

    million tons and 65 percent of the energy mix

    ■ Jilin: Cap coal consumption at 120 million tons

    and 65 percent of the energy mix

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    In a bid o improve undersanding abou he degree o emission reducions China can

    achieve on an acceleraed policy program, 10 Chinese ciies and provinces have aken

    on pre-2030 carbon-peak commimens. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Zhenjiang Ciy have

    issued he mos ambiious early-peak commimens: All have commited o peak by

    2020, 10 years ahead o he official naionwide arge.56 Tose ciies will serve as rial

    zones ha he res o he naion can hopeully ollow, as well as a saisical laboraory

    or China’s economic planners.

    Te big quesion is how soon China’s more ambiious clean air policies can begin mov-

    ing wesward ino he less-developed cenral and wesern regions where incomes are

    sill very low. Currenly he mos sringen policiessuch as he ban on new coal-fired

    power plansonly apply o he hree larges meropolian areas along China’s easern

    seaboard. Since hose hree regions accoun or around hal o he naion’s GDP and

    coal consumpionand he ull acion plan covers 66 percen o he naion’s GDP

    he policy changes enaced hus ar will have a major effec on heir own.57 However,

     wesward reorm migraion will be a criical issue o wach when China’s new 2016-2020

    developmen plan comes ou nex spring.

    I Beijing can accelerae emission reducions no only along he easern seaboard, bu also

    in he naion’s hearland, ha will subsanially bend down China’s uure emission curve.

     Among he 10 pre-2030 carbon-peak ciies and provinces, Jinchang, Yan’An, Wuhan,

    Guiyang, and Sichuan Province will be criical indicaors o wach, as all five are in China’s

    inerior. I hese inerior regionssome o which are in major coal-producion zones

    succeed in achieving early carbon-emission peaks, ha will make i very difficul or oher

    cenral and wesern regions o avoid aking on more ambiions acion hemselves.

    Te pace a which Beijing exends he naion’s mos ambiious climae policies wesward will largely deermine a wha emission level he naion peaks and how quickly Chinese

    emissions come down afer ha peak year. I Beijing mainains China’s curren eas-wes

    policy divide hroughou he 2016-2020 planning period, ha will give Chinese inves-

    ors an incenive o build more coal plans and emission-inensive indusrial projecs in

    he naion’s hearland, delaying a sharp drop-off in overall Chinese carbon emissions.

    Overall emissions will sill peak by 2030or even by 2025bu hey will peak a a

    higher level and decrease slowly.58 I, on he oher hand, Beijing can quickly exend he

    coal caps and oher ambiious programs o cover he majoriy o he naion during he

    nex five-year planning period, high-emission projecs will no longer be atracive in

    Chinaeven in he inland areasand Chinese emissions will ollow a more ambiious

    downward rajecory.59 Tese implemenaion deails will become clear when Beijing

    releases he new 2016-2020 developmen plan in March 2016.

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    Conclusion

    Nearly wo decades ago, when U.S. policymakers were debaing wheher o sign on

    o he Kyoo Proocol, he U.S. Senae passed a “sense o he senae” resoluion, ofen

    reerred o as he Byrd-Hagel Resoluion, ha called on he Unied Saes o avoid

    aking on inernaional emission reducion commimens unless developing counries

     were doing he same.60 A ha ime, he Unied Saes had a large rade imbalance wih China, and many U.S. observers eared ha i he U.S. reduced emissions and

    China did no, indusrial aciviy would shif rom he Unied Saes o China o ake

    advanage o a Chinese cos advanage.

    Now he UNFCCC paries are consrucing anoher global deal, and his ime he

    Unied Saes and China are moving in locksep. Boh naions are making ambiious

    emission-reducion commimens, and by doing so, pressuring oher naions around he

     world o do he same. Furhermore, his ime, China is no only making srong com-

    mimens a he inernaional level bu also demonsraing an equally srong patern o

    ambiious policy reorm a home.

    In 1997, when U.S. policymakers were debaing he Byrd-Hagel Resoluion, i would

    have been hard o imagine a scenario where China managed o reduce coal use by 2.9

    percen in an era o 7 percen GDP growh.61 I would also have been hard o imagine a

    Chinese Communis Pary ha viewed air qualiy as a red-line issue or regime survival,

     bu 2015 is a new era. Chinese negoiaors are showing up in Paris wih srong emission-

    reducion commimens ha will serve as he floor raher han he ceiling or Chinese

    climae acion. Ta bodes well or he uure o he plane.

     Melanie Hart is the Director for China Policy at the Center for American Progress.

    Te author would like to thank Yangshengjing (Ub) Qiu, Vivian Wang, Erin Auel, Ben

     Bovarnick, and Cathleen Kelly for their contributions to this report.

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    Appendix

    Source list for Figure 5: China’s fast-track emission reduction zones map

    National, provincial, and municipal gross domestic product data fromthe National Bureau of Statistics of China, “National Data,” available at:

    http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=C01 (last accessedNovember 2015).

    Department of Energy Statistics,China Energy Statistical Yearbook2014, (Beijing: National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2015).

    Wuhan Municipal People’s Government, “Economic Development,”(2014), available in Chinese at http://www.wuhan.gov.cn/whszfwz/xwxx/whgl/201411/t20141109_13844.html.

    Huaxi District of Guiyang City, “Hua xi qu 2014 nian jing ji yun xingqing kuang” (Huaxi District 2014 Economic Movement State ofAffairs), Press release, January 30, 2015, available in Chinese at http://www.gygov.gov.cn/art/2015/1/30/art_10737_699303.html. 

    Chongqing Municipal Government, “Chongqing Witnesses a GDPGrowth of 10.9% in 2014,” Press release, January 22, 2015, available athttp://en.cq.gov.cn/ChongqingToday/News/2015/1/22/1353704.shtml.  

    Office of the Press Secretary, “Fact Sheet: U.S. – China ClimateLeaders Summit,” Press release, September 15, 2015, availableat https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/15/fact-sheet-us-%E2%80%93-china-climate-leaders-summit.

    City of Beijing, “Coal consumption in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei,” available

    at http://www.cityofbeijing.gov.cn/2014-11/14/content_18912728.htm (last accessed November 2015).

    China Daily USA, “Beijing to replace coal-fired power plants before2015,” available at http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-10/05/content_17010555.htm (last accessed November 2015).

    China Coal Resource, “Shandong to rein in growth in coal consump-tion,” Press release, September 2, 2015, available at http://en.sxcoal.com/165/130802/DataShow.html. 

    Zhejiang Provincial Development And Reform Commission, “Guan yuyin fa ‘Zhe jiang sheng mei tan jian liang ti dai guan li gong zuo fangan’ de tong zhi” (Notice Regarding the Publication of the ‘ZhejiangProvince Action Plan for Governing the Reduction and Substitution ofCoal Consumption’), available in Chinese at http://www.zjdpc.gov.cn/art/2015/9/10/art_410_1498742.html (last accessed November 2015).

    Xinhua Daily , “Jiang su gong bu mei tan xiao fei kong zhi mu biao”(Jiangsu Publishes Coal Consumption Control Target), October 17,

    2014, available in Chinese at http://www.china5e.com/news/news-886445-1.html.

    People’s Government of Guangdong Province, “Guang dong shengren min zheng fu guan yu yin fa guang dong sheng da qi wu ranfang zhi xing dong fang an 2014-2017 nian de tong zhi” (GuangdongProvincial People’s Government Notice Regarding the Publicationof the Guangdong Province 2014-2017 Action Plan for Air PollutionPrevention and Control) (2014), available in Chinese at http://zwgk.gd.gov.cn/006939748/201402/t20140214_467051.html.

    Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau, “Shang hai shi qing jiekong qi xing dong ji hua 2013-2017” (Shanghai Municipal 2013-2017Clean Air Action Plan) (2013), available in Chinese at http://www.sepb.gov.cn/fa/cms/shhj//shhj2098/shhj2101/2013/10/78420.htm.

    People’s Republic of China Ministry of Environmental Protection andthe People’s Government of Liaoning Province, “Liao ning sheng daqi wu ran fang zhi mu biao ze ren shu” (Liaoning Provincial Letters ofResponsibility for Air Pollution Prevention and Control Targets) (2014),available in Chinese at http://www.mep.gov.cn/ztbd/rdzl/dqst/mbzrs/201401/P020140127513741052968.pdf .

    Xinhua , “Shanxi: mei tan zhan neng yuan xiao fei liang bi zhong

     jiang jiang dao 67% yi xia” (Shanxi: Coal to Account for No More Than 67 Percent of Energy Consumption), January 11, 2014,available in Chinese at http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2014-01/11/c_118925526.htm.

    Municipal People’s Government of Jilin Province, “Ji lin sheng luo shidai qi wu ran fang zhi xing dong ji hua shi shi xi ze” (Jilin ProvinceIssues Detailed Rules and Regulations for Implementing Air PollutionPrevention and Control Action Plan) (2013), available in Chinese athttp://www.reformdata.org/content/20140115/25110.html.

    Chongqing Municipal People’s Government, “Chong qing shi ren minzheng fu guan yu guan che luo shi da qi wu ran fang zhi xing dong

     ji hua de shi shi yi jian”(Chongqing Municipal People’s GovernmentSuggestions Regarding the Implementation of the Air PollutionPrevention and Control Action Plan) (2013), available in Chinese at  http://www.cq.gov.cn/publicinfo/web/views/Show!detail.action?sid=3760815. 

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    Endnotes

      1 When the climate talks commenced this week, 184 out ofthe total 196 parties to the U.N. Framework Convention onClimate Change had submitted greenhouse gas emissionreduction pledges. See, Carbon Brief, “Paris 2015: TrackingCountry Climate Pledges,” November 30, 2015, available athttp://www.carbonbrief.org/paris-2015-tracking-country-climate-pledges.

    2 The White House, “U.S.-China Joint Announcement onClimate Change,” Press release, November 11, 2014,available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change. 

    3 Ed O’Keefe, David Nakamura, and Steven Mufson, “GOPcongressional leaders denounce U.S.-China deal onclimate change,” The Washington Post, November 12, 2014,available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-congressional-leaders-denounce-us-china-deal-on-climate-change/2014/11/12/ff2b84e0-6a8d-11e4-a31c-77759fc1eacc_story.html.

    4 Chris Buckley, “China Burns Much More Coal Than Reported,Complicating Climate Talks,” The New York Times, November3, 2015, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/world/asia/china-burns-much-more-coal-than-reported-complicating-climate-talks.html. 

    5 For example, see, U.S. Senate Committee on Environment &Public Works, “Inhofe Statement on China’s Submitted Planto Reduce GHG Emissions,” June 30, 2015, available at http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases-republican?ID=5C8CD2CD-6404-416E-AE13-0D62ADDF-CAEA; Institute for Energy Research, “As U.S. Shutters CoalPlants, China and Japan are Building Them,” April 23, 2015,available at http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/as-u-s-shutters-coal-plants-china-and-japan-are-building-them/.

    6 National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Statistical Com-munique of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014National Economic and Social Development,” February26, 2015, available at http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201502/t20150228_687439.html; Minister ofEnvironmental Protection Chen Jining, “Guo wu yuan guanyu yan jiu chu li da qi wu ran fang zhi fa zhi fa jian cha baogao ji shen yi yi jian qing kuang de fan kui bao gao (StateCouncil Air Pollution Prevention and Control Enforcement

    Inspection Report and Feedback Report on Ideas UnderConsideration),” June 29, 2015, available at http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/xinwen/2015-06/29/content_1939889.htm.

      7 Lisa Murray, “Australian Coal the Loser as China Looks forCheaper, Greener Options,” Financial Review , September 30,2015, available at http://www.afr.com/news/world/austra-lian-coal-the-loser-as-china-looks-for-cheaper-greener-op-tions-20150930-gjxxd6#; David Scutt, “Thermal Coal Importsto China are Collapsing,” Business Insider Australia, October7, 2015, available at http://www.businessinsider.com.au/thermal-coal-imports-to-china-are-collapsing-2015-10; Timothy Puko and Chuin-Wei Yap, “Falling Chinese CoalConsumption and Output Undermine Global Market,”TheWall Street Journal , February 26, 2015, available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coal-consumption-and-output-fell-last-year-1424956878; Mike Mellish, “China andIndia Drive Recent Changes in World Coal Trade,” U.S. EnergyInformation Administration, November 20, 2015, availableat http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=23852; Tim Buckley, “Briefing Note: Global Energy Markets in

     Transition” (Cleveland, OH: Institute for Energy Economicsand Financial Analysis, 2015), available at http://www.ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/IEEFA-BRIEFING-NOTE-Global-Energy-Markets-in-Transition.pdf .

    8 Minister of Environmental Protection Chen Jining, “Guowu yuan guan yu yan jiu chu li da qi wu ran fang zhi fa zhifa jian cha bao gao ji shen yi yi jian qing kuang de fan kuibao gao (State Council Air Pollution Prevention and ControlEnforcement Inspection Report and Feedback Reporton Ideas Under Consideration)”; Zhang Yi, “Govt PlansMore Closures of Coal Mines Through 2016,”China Daily ,December 24, 2014, available at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-12/24/content_19153446.htm; Zheng Xin,“Beijing to Shut Coal-Fired Boilers to Clean up Air,”ChinaDaily , May 27, 2013, available at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-05/27/content_16533835.htm; China Daily, “Tianjin Closes Coal-Fired Power Plant to Cut Pollution,”March 19, 2015, available at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-03/19/content_19860091.htm.

      9 GDP calculation based on 2014 regional GDP data from theNational Bureau of Statistics of China, “Home,” available athttp://data.stats.gov.cn/english/index.htm (last accessedNovember 2015). Coal-control regions currently includeBeijing, Tianjin, Hebei Province, Shandong Province, JiangsuProvince, Shanghai, Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Prov-ince, Liaoning Province, Shaanxi Province, Chongqing City,and Jinlin Province. City of Beijing, “Coal consumption inBeijing, Tianjin, Hebei,” available at http://www.cityofbeijing.gov.cn/2014-11/14/content_18912728.htm (last accessedNovember 2015); China Coal Resou rce, “Shandong to reinin growth in coal consumption,” Press release, September

    2, 2015, available at http://en.sxcoal.com/165/130802/DataShow.html; Zhejiang Provincial Development AndReform Commission, “Guan yu yin fa ‘Zhe jiang sheng meitan jian liang ti dai guan li gong zuo fang an’ de tong zhi(Notice Regarding the Publication of the ‘Zhejiang ProvinceAction Plan for Governing the Reduction and Substitutionof Coal Consumption’),” available at http://www.zjdpc.gov.cn/art/2015/9/10/art_410_1498742.html (last accessedNovember 2015); Xinhua Daily , “Jiang su gong b u mei tanxiao fei kong zhi mu biao (Jiangsu Publishes Coal Consump-tion Control Target),” October 17, 2014, available at http://www.china5e.com/news/news-886445-1.html; People’sGovernment of Guangdong Province, “Guang dong shengren min zheng fu guan yu yin fa guang dong sheng da qiwu ran fang zhi xing dong fang an 2014-2017 nian de tongzhi (Guangdong Provincial Peoples Government NoticeRegarding the Publication of the Guangdong Province2014-2017 Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention andControl) (2014), available in Chinese at http://zwgk.gd.gov.cn/006939748/201402/t20140214_467051.html; Shanghai

    Environmental Protection Bureau, “Shang hai shi qing jiekong qi xing dong ji hua 2013-2017 (Shanghai Municipal2013-2017 Clean Air Action Plan) (2013), available inChinese at http://w ww.sepb.gov.cn/fa/cms/shhj//shhj2098/shhj2101/2013/10/78420.htm; People’s Republic of ChinaMinistry of Environmental Protection and the People’s Gov-ernment of Liaoning Province, “Liao ning sheng da qi wu ranfang zhi mu biao ze ren shu (Liaoning Provincial Letters ofResponsibility for Ai r Pollution Prevention and Control Tar-gets)” (2014), available at http://www.mep.gov.cn/ztbd/rdzl/dqst/mbzrs/201401/P020140127513741052968.pdf ; Xin-hua, “Shanxi: mei tan zhan neng yuan xiao fei liang bi zhong jiang jiang dao 67% yi xia (Shanxi: Coal to Account for NoMore Than 67 Percent of Energy Consumption),” January 11,2014, available at http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2014-01/11/c_118925526.htm; Municipal People’s Government ofJilin Province, “Ji lin sheng luo shi dai qi wu ran fang zhi x ingdong ji hua shi shi xi ze (Jilin Province Issues Detailed Rulesand Regulations for Implementing Air Pollution Preventionand Control Action Plan)” (2013), available at http://www.reformdata.org/content/20140115/25110.html; Chongqing

    Municipal People’s Government, “Chong qing shi ren minzheng fu guan yu guan che luo shi da qi wu ran fang zhixing dong ji hua de shi shi yi jian (Chongqing MunicipalPeople’s Government Suggestions Regarding the Imple-mentation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Ac-tion Plan)” (2013), available in Chinese at http://www.cq.gov.cn/publicinfo/web/views/Show!detail.action?sid=3760815.

    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bonbrief.org/paris-2015-tracking-country-climate-pledges

  • 8/20/2019 Beijing’s Energy Revolution Is Finally Gaining Serious Momentum

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    15 Center for American Progress |  Beijing’s Energy Revolution is Finally Gaining Serious Momentum

      10 For China’s renewable capacity at the end of 2014, see, Na-tional Bureau of Statistics of China, “Statistical Communique ofthe People’s Republic of China on the 2014 National Economicand Social Development.” For the United Kingdom, Japan,Indonesia, and the United States, see, U.S. Energy InformationAdministration, “International Energy Statistics,” availableat http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=2&aid=7 (last accessed November 2015).

      11 National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Statistical Com-munique of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014National Economic and Social Development”; Minister ofEnvironmental Protection Chen Jining, “Guo wu yuan guan

    yu yan jiu chu li da qi wu ran fang zhi fa zhi fa jian cha baogao ji shen yi yi jian qing kua ng de fan kui bao gao (StateCouncil Air Pollution Prevention and Control EnforcementInspection Report and Feedback Report on Ideas UnderConsideration)”; Murray, “Australian Coal the Loser as ChinaLooks for Cheaper, Greener Options”; Scutt, “Thermal CoalImports to China are Collapsing.”

      12 People’s Republic of China Ministry of EnvironmentalProtection, “The State Council Issues Action Plan on Preven-tion and Control of Air Pollution Introducing Ten Measuresto Improve Air Quality,” September 12, 2013, available athttp://english.mep.gov.cn/News_service/infocus/201309/t20130924_260707.htm; State Council General Office, “Guowu yuan guan yu yin fa da qi wu ran fang zhi xing dong jihua de tong ji (State Council Notice Regarding the Publica-tion of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control ActionPlan),” September 10, 2013, availab le at http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-09/12/content_2486773.htm.

      13 Ibid.

    14 Stratfor Global Intelligence, “China Imposes a New CoalProduction Tax,” January 13, 2015, available at https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china-imposes-new-coal-production-tax; Lucy Hornby, Jamie Smyth, and Neil Hume, “ChinaBan on Low-Grade Coal Set to Hit Global Miners,”FinancialTimes, September 16, 2014, available at http://ww w.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b025356-3d3d-11e4-a2ab-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3rhA4X4Qb; Brian Spegele, “China Moves toBolster Air-Pollution-Control Law,”The Wall Street Journal,November 26, 2014, available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-moves-to-bolster-air-pollution-control-law-1417011241; Xinhua, “China Steps up Pollution Control,”May 28, 2015, available at: http://www.cctv-america.com/2015/05/28/china-steps-up-pollution-control.

    15 Yang Ziman, “Coal firms in the red as prices fall,”China Daily ,November 3, 2015, available at http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-11/03/content_22352841.htm.

      16 China Daily, “Top Chinese coal mining company reports sharpprofit drop,” July 30, 2015, available at http://europe.china-daily.com.cn/business/2015-07/30/content_21449115.htm.  

    17 LyuChang, “Longmay to cut 100,000 coal jobs,” China Daily ,September 26, 2015, available at http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-09/26/content_21987803.htm. 

    18 Scutt, “Thermal coal imports to China are collapsing”; Buck-ley, “Briefing Note: Glob al Energy Markets in Transition.”

    19 National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Statistical Communi-que of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 NationalEconomic and Social Development.”

    20 National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Statistical Communi-que of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 NationalEconomic and Social Development”; Minister of Environmen-tal Protection Chen Jining, “ Guo wu yuan guan yu yan jiu chuli da qi wu ran fang zhi fa zhi fa jian cha bao gao ji shen yi yi

     jian qing kuang de fan kui bao gao (State Council Air Pollu-tion Prevention and Control Enforcement Inspection Reportand Feedback Report on Ideas Under Consideration).”

      21 Lauri Myllyvirta, “Comment: New Coal Power Plants inChina – a (Carbon) Bubble Waiting to Burst,” GreenpeaceEnergy Desk, February 23, 2015, available at http://ener-gydesk.greenpeace.org/2015/02/23/comment-new-coal-power-plants-china-carbon-bubble-waiting-burst/; LauriMyllyvirta, Xinyi Shen, and Harri Lammi, “Is China DoublingDown on its Coal Power Bubble?”, Greenpeace East Asia,November 11, 2015, available at http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/publications/reports/climate-energy/climate-energy-2015/doubling-down/.

     22 Zheng Yangpeng, “New Warning on Overcapac ity,”ChinaDaily , November 5, 2013, available at http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-11/05/content_17080567.htm.

    23  Xinhua, “China Accelerates Overcapacity Reduction,” August17, 2013, available at http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/busi-ness/2013-08/17/content_16901595.htm. 

    24 Zhang, “Govt Plans More Closures of Coal Mines Through 2016.”

    25 P.R. China National Development and Reform Commissionand P.R. China National Energy Administration, “Guan yuzuo hao dian li xiang mu he zhun quan xian xia fang hou

    gui hua jian she you guan gong zuo de tong zhi (NoticeRegarding Construction Planning Work and AppropriateUse of Project Approvals for Electric Power Plants UnderDecentralized Authority),” November 26, 2015, available athttp://www.nea.gov.cn/2015-11/26/c_134856367.htm.

    26 For China’s end-2014 renewable capacity, see, NationalBureau of Statistics of China, “Statistical Communique of thePeople’s Republic of China on the 2014 National Economicand Social Development.“ For the United Kingdom, Japan,Indonesia, and the United States, see, U.S. Energy Informa-tion Administration, “International Energy Statistics.”

      27 National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Statistical Communi-que of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 NationalEconomic and Social Development.“

      28 Ibid.

     29 State Council General Office, “Guo wu yuan ban gong ting

    guan yu yin fa neng yuan fa zhan zhan lve xing dong ji hua2014-2020 nian de tong zhi (State Council General OfficeNotice Regarding Promulgation of the 2014-2020 EnergyStrategy Action Plan),” November 19, 2014, available at http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-11/19/content_9222.htm. Note: Notice was originally issued on June 7, 2014.

      30 International Renewable Energy Agency, “RenewableEnergy Prospects: China” (2014), available at http://irena.org/remap/IRENA_REmap_China_report_2014.pdf ; Inter-national Energy Agency, “Renewable Energy Medium-TermMarket Report 2015” (2015), available at https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/MTrenew2015sum.pdf ; James Conca,“China Shows How to Build Nuclear Reactors Fast andCheap,” Forbes, October 22, 2015, available at http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/10/22/china-shows-how-to-build-nuclear-reactors-fast-and-cheap/.

    31 Ibid.

      32 Fredrich Kahrl, James H. Williams, and Junfeng Hu, “The

    Political Economy of Elec tricity Dispatch Reform in China,”Energy Policy (53) (2013): 361–369.

    33 Michael Goggin, “Analysis on China’s Move to ‘Green Dis-patch,’” American Wind Energy Association, September 25,2015, available at http://www.aweablog.org/background-on-chinas-move-to-green-dispatch/.

    34 The White House, “U.S.-China Joint Presidential Statementon Climate Change,” Press release, September 25, 2015,available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/us-china-joint-presidential-statement-climate-change.

    35 Li Xuena and Huang Kaixi, “Shenzhen’s Circuit Breaker forPower Pricing,” Caixin Online, January 29, 2015, avail able athttp://english.caixin.com/2015-01-29/100779668.html; TheEconomist, “Powering Up: China’s Government is Gearingup to Reform the Power Sector,” December 5, 2014, avail-able at http://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1702554754/

    powering-up/2014-12-05.

    36 Under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, Chinese CommunistParty disciplinary authorities are using corruption investiga-tions to uncover misconduct within these state-owned gridcompanies. For example, see, Lu Xiaoxi, “Executives at GridFirms Received Improper Benefits, CCDI Says,” Caixin Online ,June 17, 2015, available at http://english.caixin.com/2015-06-17/100820204.html.

    37 Liu Jingsheng, “Taking the Next Step in Power IndustryReform,” Caixin Online, January 30, 2015, availabl e at http://english.caixin.com/2015-01-30/100780367.html.

    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    16/16

      38 State Grid Corporation of China, “Organizational Structure,”available at http://www.sgcc.com.cn/ywlm/gsgk-e/zzjg-e/zzjg-e1.shtml (last accessed November 2015).

    39 David Crossley, Wang Xuan, and Helen He, “China Opensthe Door for New Utility Business Model and More EnergyEfficiency,” Regulatory Assistance Project, November 12, 2014,available at http://www.raponline.org/featured-work/china-opens-the-door-for-new-utility-business-model-and-more-energy; Max Dupuy and Frederick Weston, “A New Frameworkfor China’s Power Sector,” Regulatory Assistance Project,March 23, 2015, available at  http://www.raponline.org/featured-work/a-new-framework-for-chinas-power-sector .

    40 Melanie Hart and Tong Zhao, “While InternationalNegotiators Deal with China’s Carbon, Chinese CitizensDeal with Impa cts Closer to Home,” Climate Progress ,December 7, 2011, available at http://thinkprogress.org/cli-mate/2011/12/07/383619/china-carbon-chinese-impacts/;Edward Wong, “Outrage Grows Over Air Pollution andChina’s Response,” The New York Times, December 6, 2011,available at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/world/asia/beijing-journal-anger-grows-over-air-pollution-in-chi-na.html?_r=0; Jonathan Kaiman, “Chinese Struggle Through‘Airpocalypse’ Smog,” The Guardian, February 16, 2013, avail-able at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/16/chinese-struggle-through-airpocalypse-smog; EdwardWong, “On Scale of 0 to 500, Beijing’s Air Quality Tops ‘CrazyBad’ at 755,” The New York Times, January 12, 2013, availableat http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/science/earth/beijing-air-pollution-off-the-charts.html.

    41 James Fallows, “In China, ‘Time Is Not Ripe’ for Honest

    Air Pollution Readings,” The Atlantic , November 3, 2011,available at http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/11/in-china-time-is-not-ripe-for-honest-air-pollution-readings/247817/.

    42 Melanie Hart and Jing Shen, “In China’s PollutionStruggles, Information is King,” Climate Progress , July25, 2012, available at http://thinkprogress.org/cli-mate/2012/07/25/577321/in-chinas-pollution-struggles-information-is-king/. As of June 2015, there were 1,436monitoring devices operating in 338 cities across China.See, Minister of Environmental Protection Chen Jining, “Guowu yuan guan yu yan jiu chu li da qi wu ran fang zhi fa zhifa jian cha bao gao ji shen yi yi jian qing kuang de fan kuibao gao (State Council Air Pollution Prevention and ControlEnforcement Inspection Report and Feedback Report onIdeas Under Consideration.”

    43 People’s Republic of China Ministry of Environmental Pro-tection, “The State Council Issues Action Plan o n Preventionand Control of Air Pollution Introducing Ten Measures to

    Improve Air Quality.”

    44 For example, see, Xinhua, “Xinhua Insight: China DeclaresWar against Pollution,” March 5, 2014, available athttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/special/2014-03/05/c_133163557.htm; Xinhua, “Xi Stresses Efforts toRevolutionize Energy Sector,” June 13, 2014, availableat http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-06/13/c_133405882.htm.

      45 Matthew P. Goodman and David A. Parker, “NavigatingChoppy Waters: China’s Economic Decisio nmaking at a Time of Transition” (Washington: Center for Strategic andInternational Studies, 2015), available at http://csis.org/files/publication/150327_navigating_choppy_waters.pdf .

    46 David Stanway, “China Steel Futures Hit Record Low asExport Lifeline Shrinks,” Reuters, September 30, 2015,available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/30/us-markets-ironore-idUSKCN0RU14020150930#75bVWkpFd8iFIcfb.97; Zheng Yangpeng, “Sputtering Growth EnginesCast Shadow on Full-Year Economic Prospects,” China Daily ,August 13, 2015, available at http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-08/13/content_21582980.htm.

    47 David Z. Morris, “Will Tech Manufacturing Stay in China?”,Fortune, August 27, 2015, available at http://fortune.com/2015/08/27/tech-manufacturing-relocation/.

    48 State Council General Office, “Guo wu yuan ban gong tingguan yu yin fa neng yuan fa zhan zhan l ve xing dong ji hua2014-2020 nian de tong zhi (State Council General OfficeNotice Regarding Promulgation of the 2014-2020 EnergyStrategy Action Plan).”Note: Notice was originally issued onJune 7, 2014.

      49 Chris Buckley, “China Burns Much More Coal than Reported,Complicating Climate Talks,” The New York Times, November3, 2015, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/world/asia/china-burns-much-more-coal-than-reported-complicating-climate-talks.html.

    50 Ibid.

    51 Department of Energy Statistics, “China Energy StatisticalYearbook 2014” (Beijing, China: National Bureau of Statisticsof China, 2015).

    52 The White House, “U.S.-China Joint Announcement on

    Climate Change.”

      53 Energy-use and emissions modelers, interview with author,Beijing, China, June 2015.

      54 Ibid. Also, see, Lan Lan, “China Emissions Could Peak 5 YearsEarlier than Expected,” China Daily , June 12, 2015, availableat http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-06/12/con-tent_20981369.htm.

    55 Energy-use and emissions modelers, interview with author,Beijing, China, June 2015.

      56 The White House, “Fact Sheet: U.S.-China Climate LeadersSummit,” Press release, September 15, 2015, available athttps://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/15/fact-sheet-us-%E2%80%93-china-climate-leaders-summit.

      57 National, provincial, and municipal gross domestic productdata from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, “Na-tional Data,” available at: http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/

    easyquery.htm?cn=C01 (last accessed November 2015).

    58 Energy-use and emissions experts, interview with author,Beijing, China, March 2015, May 2015, and June 2015.

      59 Ibid.

    60  A resolution expressing the sense of the Senate regardingthe conditions for the United States becoming a signatory toany international agreement on greenhouse gas emissionsunder the United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange, S. Res. 98, 105 Cong. 1 sess. (1997), available athttps://www.congress.gov/bill/105th-congress/senate-resolution/98.

    61 For coal use statistic, see, National Bureau of Statistics of China,“Statistical Communique of the People’s Republic of China onthe 2014 National Economic and Social Development.”

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