Behavioural MeetupGuest Speaker: Prof. Lorraine Whitmarsh

Think global, act local?

Perceptions of and behavioural responses to

climate change

Think global, act local? Perceptions of and

behavioural responses to

climate change

Prof. Lorraine WhitmarshCardiff University &

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Climate change – far and near

Climate change and human behaviour

11%

13%

2%

1%

20%

18%

10%

8%

6%

4%7%

Government expenditure

Capital investment

Education

Communications

Recreation and leisure

Food and catering

Space heating

Household

Clothing and footwear

Commuting

Health and hygiene

UK carbon footprint, by functional use (Druckman & Jackson, 2010)

•76% of UK emissions can be attributed to households

Climate change: political response

Climate change: public response

Capstick, Whitmarsh, Poortinga, Pidgeon & Upham, 2014

Worry about climate

change (US public)

Climate change is perceived as a distant risk

Q. How serious a threat is climate change to…

O’Neill & Nicholson-Cole, 2009

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

you people in

local

community

people in

UK

people in

other

countries

animals

and plants

in local

area

animals

and plants

in UK

animals

and plants

in other

countries

not serious

very serious

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

you people in

local

community

people in

UK

people in

other

countries

animals

and plants

in local

area

animals

and plants

in UK

animals

and plants

in other

countries

not serious

very serious

• Optimism bias• Temporal discounting, psychological distance

What influences our

perceptions of climate

change?

Direct experience and climate change perceptions

•Direct experience usually more important for shaping risk

perceptions than second-hand (mediated) information (Slovic, 2000)

•But… no difference between flood victims and non-flood victims in

perceptions of climate change (Whitmarsh, 2008)

•But we experience weather, not climate (change); and the issue is

highly politicised… so direct experience not persuasive by itself

Whitmarsh, 2008

Direct experience is mediated through values

Clayton et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change

“Much diversity in [public] understanding can be attributed not to what we learn about climate change but to how, and from whom, we learn: the sources of our information and how we evaluate those sources”

E.g.,

•People who believe climate change is not happening are less likely to remember (accurately) that they had experienced a warmer-than-usual summer during the previous year (Howe & Leiserowitz, 2013)

Why are some people sceptical

about climate change?

Climate change attitudes are ideological

Whitmarsh, 2008; 2011; Corner et al, 2012; Lewandowsky & Whitmarsh, 2014; Xenias et al., submitted

Demographics0 1 2 3 4 5

Green

Lib Dem

Labour

Conservative

UKIP

SNP

BNP

F(12,1472)=10.85, p<.001

Climate scepticism score

Political affiliation:

• Values (individualism, right-of-centre politics) and behaviour (energy-intensive lifestyles) are significantly correlated with scepticism

• Denial can be a coping response to threatening information (e.g., Carver et al., 1989)

• Is climate scepticism an identity protective response to threatening information. i.e., would people believe in climate change if it didn’t threaten their way of life/identity?

• Two studies: hypothetical risk (student sample) and climate change (UK sample), comparing risk info. with vs. without behaviour change message

Study 1. Is scepticism a defence against threatening info?

Xenias et al, under review

Study 1. Materials

Scientists warn of UK climate risks

Britain will experience water shortages and flooding by the end of the century if temperatures are left unchecked, analysis shows.Nearly 18 million British people will experience more water shortages and 160,000 will be affected by coastal flooding by the end of the century if temperatures are left unchecked, according to new analysis.The data, which was launched at the UN climate talks in Durban, shows all 24 countries included in the report have warmed since the 1960s and the frequency of extremely warm temperatures has increased, while very cold temperatures have become less frequent.The latest warning on the impacts of climate change comes in the wake of one of the driest years on record in some parts of Britain. Many areas are likely to see an increase in the frequency of droughts and water scarcity, the report says.In the worst-case scenario painted in the report, food production could decline dramatically in many parts of the world. The new analysis suggests climate change could be worse than previously thought. By the end of the century, it says, about 49 million more people could be at risk from coastal flooding due to sea level rises."Life for millions of people could change forever. This makes the challenge of reducing emissions ever more urgent," said UK climate and energy secretary, Chris Huhne.Substantial cuts in carbon emissions could come from changing our behaviour. Ministers are currently considering proposals to drastically reduce transport and energy consumption. These proposals could mean 80% reduction to travel and similar cuts in energy used in homes. Prices for many products will probably increase under the new plans, while certain products will be phased out altogether.

“Britain will experience water shortages and flooding by the end of the century if temperatures are left unchecked, analysis shows... Food production could decline dramatically …”

Behaviour change [no BC] condition:

“Substantial cuts in carbon emissions could come from changing our behaviour [changing the way products are made]. Ministers are currently considering proposals to drastically reduce transport and energy consumption [transform transport and energy supply].

These proposals could mean 80% reduction to travel and similar cuts in energy used in homes. Prices for many products will probably increaseunder the new plans, while certain products will be phased out altogether [introduce new transport technologies and home appliances. These new plans will mean alternative energy sources will be funded and industry processes will be transformed].”

N=1,505, UK representative sample

Study 1. Scepticism as identity threat response

• Perception of climate risks DECREASED and climate scepticism INCREASED when given risk information mentioning need for behaviour change

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

How bad are climate risks? Climate change claims areexaggerated

No change

Behaviour change

F(2,1477)=3.86, p<.05

F(2,1477)=4.79, p<.05

Xenias, Whitmarsh, & Corner, under review

Does it matter what

other people are doing

(and who they are)?

Climate change as a collective problem

Most psychological research on climate change perceptions and action has focused at the individual level

• Policy / campaigns also often focus on individual responsibility

Yet climate change is a fundamentally collective problem

• Social / commons dilemma; cf. diffusion of responsibility

• Perceived lack of action by others and low self-efficacy

Sweetman & Whitmarsh, 2016

Climate change as a moral problem

Perceived fairness is key to perceptions of climate change action

• Qual. work on climate change perceptions shows morality and esp. equity are central themes (Whitmarsh, 2009) - those with more power, wealth, liability (industry, US, rich…) should take more responsibility

• Acceptability of (climate change) policies determined by equity and fair distribution of costs (Upham et al., 2009); cf. psychological models of political action (van Zomeren et al., 2008)

• Progressive policies which require more from those more responsible/able to act expected to be fairer, thus more acceptable

Research Questions:

1. Is willingness to act on climate change predicted by perceived fairness or efficacy of the behaviours?

2. Do others’ actions influence willingness to act via the fairness and efficacy pathways? Does social status or group membership of these others matter?

Sweetman & Whitmarsh, 2016

Study 2. Methods

• 2 x 2 between-subjects (Study 1: N=129; Study 2: N=333; Study 3: 229):

• Exemplar status (high = business CEOs vs. low = homeless people) x

• Exemplar group identity (ingroup = British vs. outgroup = US)

Latest scientific findings provide further evidence of the

significant risks posed by climate change for humans and

ecosystems. We are interested in your views on actions to

tackle climate change. Recently the US chamber of

commerce, a body representing US business [The Big

Issue UK, a street newspaper sold by homeless individuals

in Britain] has introduced a climate change scheme whereby

CEOs and other well-paid US business executives

[homeless individuals selling the newspaper] will pay 15%

of their annual salaries to the US CC [Big Issue] action on

climate change project. The project has received broad support

from US CC members [the homeless individuals selling the

Big Issue]. Importantly, this project invests in developing

technologies and services (e.g., renewable energy technology,

energy efficiency projects, environmental management

services) that are vital to tackling climate change.

Sweetman & Whitmarsh, 2016

Study 2. Results

Sweetman & Whitmarsh, 2016

How can we encourage

low-carbon, climate-resilient lifestyles?

Attitude-behaviour gap… and HUGE challenge

•99% awareness of climate change

•Most understand the role of human behaviour in causing climate change, and think it should be tackled

•BUT very limited behaviour change (mostly ‘small and painless’)

Whitmarsh, 2009; cf. Lorenzoni et al., 2007

Individual behaviour and climate change

Whitmarsh & O’Neill, 2010

0 20 40 60 80 100

Write to your MP about anenvironmental issue

Avoid eating meat

Cut down on the amount you fly

Buy environmentally-friendly products

Walk, cycle or take public transport forshort journeys (<3 miles)

Recycle

% always or often taking action

Barriers to climate change action

• Climate change is a distant threat• Other things are more important• Uncertainty and scepticism• Reluctance to change lifestyles• Externalising responsibility and blame• Lack of knowledge about causes, consequences, potential solutions• Distrust in information sources• “Drop in the ocean” feeling • Fatalism (too late to act/ can’t do anything)• Technology will save us

Individual barriers

Social and structural barriers• Inaction by governments, business, industry• Free-riding (policy preference for voluntary measures)• Social norms and expectations• Lack of enabling initiatives and facilities (e.g., regular public transport)

Lorenzoni, Nicholson-Cole & Whitmarsh. 2007

How can we change behaviour?

Downstream – influencing individuals

- information/advertising

- modelling (social learning) and norm-based approaches

Upstream – influencing context/situation of action

- economic measures

- education (and changing social norms)

- changes to available products and services

- changes to built environment

• Both downstream and upstream required to address multiple barriers to lifestyle change (‘nudge’ techniques insufficient)

• Participatory democracy to involve public in policy design

Verplanken & Wood, 2006; Clayton et al., 2015

Towards low-carbon lifestyles

• Limited success of behaviour change policies

• Piecemeal, individualistic, consumer approaches dominate

Taking up a new environmental behaviour may lead to adoption of additional, environmentally beneficial, behaviours

• From behaviour change to lifestyle change

• Theoretical support (e.g., self-perception theory) – but no coherent theory

• Some empirical support in health (Ross & Thow 1997), consumption (Simonin & Ruth 1998) and environmental (Whitmarsh & O’Neill, 2010) behaviours – but small samples, correlational, geographically limited

Behavioural spillover

Study 3. Does installing insulation lead to spillover?

Postal survey (N=736) of residents in three socially diverse wards in Monmouthshire, Wales, in January 2013

Whitmarsh et al., 2014

Yes Nop

(n=618) (n=104)

Energy-saving measures

A-rated appliances 51% 45% n.s.

Energy monitor 11% 6% n.s.

Low-energy light bulbs 91% 86% n.s.

Double glazing all windows 78% 43% ***

Double glazing some windows 16% 23% n.s.

Draught proofing on windows/doors 25% 12% **

Timer to control heating system 89% 67% ***

Thermostat for heating system 84% 63% ***

Heating in the home (% always/often)

Turn off heating when not in use 82% 77% n.s.

Put on more clothes rather than turning up heating 50% 50% n.s.

Electricity use in the home (%always/often)

Turn off lights when not in use 93% 83% ***

Only boil the kettle with as much water as you need 83% 72% **

Avoid using energy at peak times (e.g. evenings) 22% 27% n.s.

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20

30

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60

70

80

90

100

Before After

Wales

England

Study 4. Impact of the Welsh carrier bag charge

‘How often do you take your own bag/s to the supermarket?’

% a

lway

s

Poortinga et al., 2013 N=1000 pre + 1000 post; telephone survey Sept 2011 & April 2012

Other environmental behaviours (% saying ‘always’; Wales only)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Buy products with less packaging

Walk or cycle short distance

Repair or maintain an item to avoidbuying something new

Wash clothes at 30 degrees or less

Turn off tap while brushing your teeth

Buy energy-saving light bulbs

Recycle household waste

Before

After

Poortinga et al., 2013

Study 4. Impact of the Welsh carrier bag charge

Need for relational studies and holistic interventions

Targeting interventions

• High-emitting groups (e.g., high earners, sub-urbanites)

• Leisure/recreation practices

• Organisations – e.g., telecommuting scheme led to 66% drop in vehicle miles

• Context change moments (habit discontinuity)

Relational approaches• Avoiding rebound effects

• Behavioural spillover literature highlights potential for broader lifestyle change (e.g., Whitmarsh & O’Neill, 2010)

Capstick et al., 2015

Need for relational studies and holistic interventions

Unexpected outcomes

from interventions• Recent US study found taking

your own bags to the supermarket led to increase in purchase of organic food… and of unhealthy snacks! (Karmarker & Bollinger, 2014)

• Moral licensing effect??

Conclusions

• Climate change is a problem of human behaviour

• It is a political issue – values (not experience or knowledge) drive perceptions

• More climate change information will not persuade the most sceptical groups

• Climate change messages can be deeply threatening – need to reframe

• Willingness to act is influenced more by moral than ‘rational’ factors (e.g., efficacy)

• Willingness to act also depends on the actions of (high status) others

• Spillover may be a way to achieve more ambitious low-carbon lifestyle change – if circumstances are right (e.g., priming identity)

• Contextual factors may still be a stronger influence – hence, need for structural interventions to achieve radical change (including adaptation)

• Interventions should be targeted to high-emitting practices and sub-groups, organisations and critical moments

• Lifestyles are a ‘system’ – consider unintended consequences from interventions and dynamics/relationships across individual behaviours

Thank you

WhitmarshLE@cardiff.ac.uk

meetup.com/behavioural/

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