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Transcript of Beginning the Democratic Comeback · PDF fileBeginning the Democratic Comeback Democracy...
![Page 1: Beginning the Democratic Comeback · PDF fileBeginning the Democratic Comeback Democracy Matters Conference Presented by Jonathan Cowan ... Why Demography ≠ Destiny Down Ballot 159](https://reader031.fdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022022003/5a9db8d57f8b9a0d5a8b6acd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Beginning the Democratic Comeback
Democracy Matters ConferencePresented by Jonathan Cowan
January 20, 2017
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In one sense, a very close race
StateElectoral
VotesTotal
Ballots CastTrump Margin
Michigan 16 4,799,284 10,704
Pennsylvania 20 6,115,402 44,292
Wisconsin 10 2,976,150 22,748
Close Race in Three Key States
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HRC and the Popular Vote
• Clinton won 400,000 more votes than Obama in 2012
• Won more raw votes than any Dem nominee except Obama in 2008
• Won Orange County—first Dem to do so in 90 years
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A Shrunken Democratic Party
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Change in Democratic Electoral StrengthSince 2008 Election
Senate
House
Governors
State LegislativeChambers
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The Balance of Power in the StatesDemocrats have trifecta in 6 states. Republicans in 25.
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Democrats in Danger of Becominga Regional Party - Presidential
NY, MA, CA
HRC = 15,296,202 or 64.6%
Trump = 8,389,049 or 35.4%
Other 47 states
HRC = 50,548,408 or 48.1%
Trump = 54,590,587 or 51.9%
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Democrats in Danger of Beinga Regional Party - Congressional
NY, MA, CA = 66-23 Dem House Lead
Other 47 states = 128-218 GOP House Lead
Acela Corridor and Pacific Coast = 98-34 Dem House LeadOther 40 states = 96-207 GOP House Lead
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Democrats in Danger of Beinga Regional Party - Counties
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Rethinking Our Theory of the Electorate
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Demographic Change Isn’t Evenly Dispersed
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Why Demography ≠ Destiny Down Ballot
159 Reliably Blue
Districts44.8% White
90 Purple Swing
Districts
70.3% White
186
Reliably Red
Districts
74.2% White
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Demography = Destiny?
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
White Black Hispanic Asian Other
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Shifting Counties
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Switcher Counties: From Obama to Trump
Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Median Household Income $42,949.38 $49,493.29 $48,562.36
Whites 89.2% 87.3% 91.9%
College Whites 25+ 17.7% 19.3% 18.2%
Non College Whites 25+ 73.9% 71.2% 75.9%
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