Beginners Guide to Solow Model
Transcript of Beginners Guide to Solow Model
Spring 2007 187
A Beginner’s Guide to the Solow Model
Sheldon H. Stein
Abstract: The Solow model is widely regarded as the workhorse model of the the-
ory of economic growth. Although at one point this model was first encountered
in graduate school, it has since filtered down to the intermediate and, occasion-
ally, to the principles of macroeconomics course. Many have commented on how
difficult it is to teach the Solow model to undergraduates, especially to students
in the principles of macroeconomics course. The author demonstrates that under
the assumption that the level of savings is autonomous, the essence of the stock-
flow adjustment of the Solow model becomes much easier to comprehend.
Keywords: depreciation, economic growth, investment, savings, steady state,
stock-flow adjustment
JEL code: A22, E10, 040
Within the past 30 years, the theory of economic growth, as represented by the
Solow growth model, has filtered down to introductory principles courses. Many
observers have commented on the difficulties associated with teaching the Solow
growth model to undergraduates. I present a simplified version of the Solow
model to make it more accessible to undergraduates, with the assumption that the
level of savings is autonomous. With this assumption, the adjustment of capital
toward a stock equilibrium is greatly simplified. Once the stock-flow equilibrium
process is understood, the transition toward the standard Solow framework fol-
lows naturally.
Sheldon H. Stein is an associate professor of economics at Cleveland State University (e-mail:[email protected]). Copyright © 2007 Heldref Publications
In this section, the Journal of Economic Education publishes articlesconcerned with substantive issues, new ideas, and research findings ineconomics that may influence or can be incorporated into the teaching ofeconomics.
HIRSCHEL KASPER, Section Editor
Content Articles in Economics
TEACHING THE SOLOW MODEL AT THE UNDERGRADUATE LEVEL
Taylor (2000, 90–91) was pessimistic about the ability of beginning students to
comprehend the notion of a “steady-state growth equilibrium” as found in the
Solow model. Colander (2000, 77) stated that the basic Solow model is too difficult
for principles students and perhaps a bit of a stretch for most students at the inter-
mediate level. DeLong, in an essay posted on his Web site, http://www.j-bradford-
delong.net/MHText/Older%20Files/Textbooks.html, states that two-thirds of the
undergraduates at Berkeley have difficulty coping with the notion of capital per
“effective worker.” Baretto (http://www.wabash.edu/EconMacro/home.htm), in a
commentary posted on his Web site, writes that presentations of the Solow growth
model in all of the major textbooks require “fantastic feats of imagination” by stu-
dents. He recommends that the properties of this model be presented with Excel
spreadsheets and Word documents. In the spirit of a comment attributed to Albert
Einstein, who said that physical theories should lend themselves to descriptions
so simple that even a child could understand them, I have discovered that a sim-
ple version of the Solow model enables the student to understand the essence of
the dynamic processes behind the Solow model. By making one unrealistic heroic
assumption, I present a version of the Solow model that I call the beginner’sSolow model or BSM. The benefit of learning BSM is that it enables the student
to understand the essence of the stock-flow equilibrium process found in the orig-
inal Solow model. Once BSM is mastered, and it generally does not take long, the
transition to a more standard description of the Solow model such as that found
in intermediate texts is relatively quick and painless. The level of mathematics
used in BSM makes it amenable to principles students.
THE BEGINNER’S SOLOW MODEL
In the beginner’s Solow model, I make the assumption that the level of savings
is completely autonomous, being independent of its usual determinants such as
disposable income, interest rates, wealth, and so forth. This assumption can eas-
ily be dispensed with once the student has the “Eureka moment” with regard to
the nature of stock-flow equilibrium. I begin by setting the level of autonomous
savings at $50.
The standard assumption that depreciation is equal to a fixed fraction of the
capital stock is retained. To make it possible for students to do the mathematical
calculations in their heads, without the need to use calculators or spreadsheets, I
assume that the depreciation rate is 10 percent. Suppose now that the initial value
of the capital stock is $300. With savings equal to a constant $50 and deprecia-
tion equal to 10 percent of $300 (i.e., $30), net investment, the difference between
saving (or gross investment) and depreciation in the first period, is $20. Adding
this $20 to the initial capital stock of $300 provides the capital stock for the
following period, which is $320. Surprisingly, this often turns out to be the major
hurdle that a student must leap before being able to comprehend the essence of
the Solow model. But the vast majority of them are able to do so.
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Next, with savings assumed to remain at $50, depreciation is equal to 10 percent of
$320 or $32. Net investment is now $50 – $32 � $18. The capital stock at the begin-
ning of the next period is $320 plus $18 or $338. If one continues with this process,
the movement toward the steady-state level of the capital stock can be understood
without having to use electronic aids. Finally, students are asked what happens when
the capital stock reaches $500. There is always at least one student who responds that
no further changes in the level of the capital stock will occur because the $50 of sav-
ings is now absorbed entirely by $50 of depreciation, which is 10 percent of $500. For
some, arriving at this point is a struggle, but it does not take long for most if not all of
the students in the class to acknowledge that they understand. A short homework
assignment that I give at the end of the class verifies that this is the case.
In addition to the assumption of autonomous savings, I also assume that labor and
technology are fixed, which is fairly standard in introductory expositions of the
Solow model, such as that found in Mankiw (2003, 181). If one assumes that the cap-
ital-output ratio is constant, then output grows as the capital stock grows. At this
stage of the exposition, simplifying assumptions of this kind are quite welcome by
my students. Also, the whole notion of whether we are dealing with national savings,
private savings, or public savings is an issue that can be explored on another day.
At this point, I begin the whole process again, with an initial value of the cap-
ital stock above the steady state of $500, say $510. To those who understand how
this model works, it is obvious that the capital stock must initially fall to $509 if
the level of autonomous savings remains at $50 because depreciation is 10 per-
cent of $510, or $51, thus making net investment equal to –1.00. The capital stock
will continue to fall until it equals $500, where once again, depreciation will
absorb the entire $50 of exogenous savings and a steady state is reached.
I now illustrate these examples with a spreadsheet. In Table 1, autonomous sav-
ings is set equal to 50, the depreciation rate is set at 10 percent, and the initial
value of the capital stock is $300. In Table 2, I begin a process of capital decumu-
lation by setting the initial value of the capital stock above the steady state of
$500 at $510. Once the template is set up, a user can change the level of autono-
mous savings and the depreciation rate and observe the process of movement
toward the steady state. Thus, in Table 3, the depreciation rate is set at 20 percent
with savings set at $70. The steady-state capital stock now occurs at $350, where
$70 of savings is offset by $70 of depreciation.
Next, the lesson can be reinforced with the algebraic approach. The change in
the capital stock is
�K � S0 – �K, (1)
where S0 is autonomous savings, K is the capital stock, and � is the depreciation
rate. The steady state, where K is in a long-run equilibrium, occurs where �K is
equal to zero, or
S0 – �K � 0. (2)
This can be illustrated by referring to Tables 1, 2, and 3. Solving for K,
K* � (S0/�). (3)
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TABLE 2. Capital Accumulation when Savings Is $50, the Initial CapitalStock Is $510, and the Depreciation Rate Is 10 Percent
NetTime K ($) S ($) Depreciation ($) investment ($)
1 510.00 50.00 51.00 �1.002 509.00 50.00 50.90 �0.903 508.10 50.00 50.81 �0.814 507.29 50.00 50.73 �0.735 506.56 50.00 50.66 �0.666 505.90 50.00 50.59 �0.597 505.31 50.00 50.53 �0.538 504.78 50.00 50.48 �0.489 504.30 50.00 50.43 �0.43
10 503.87 50.00 50.39 �0.39...
74 500.00 50.00 50.00 0.00
Note. K � capital stock; S � savings. Autonomous savings � $50.00; Depreciation rate �0.10; Steady-state capital � $500.00.
TABLE 1. Capital Accumulation When Savings Is $50, the Initial CapitalStock Is $300, and the Depreciation Rate Is 10 Percent
NetTime K ($) S ($) Depreciation ($) investment ($)
1 300.00 50.00 30.00 20.002 320.00 50.00 32.00 18.003 338.00 50.00 33.80 16.204 354.20 50.00 35.42 14.585 368.78 50.00 36.88 13.126 381.90 50.00 38.19 11.817 393.71 50.00 39.37 10.638 404.34 50.00 40.43 9.579 413.91 50.00 41.39 8.61
10 422.52 50.00 42.25 7.75...
102 500.00 50.00 50.00 0.00
Note. K � capital stock; S � savings. Autonomous savings � $50.00; Depreciation rate �0.10; Steady-state capital � $500.00.
So the steady state for the numbers used in equation 1 is K* � (So/�) �$50/(0.10) or $500. By changing the numbers in this equation along with the
parameters of the template, as was done in Table 3, the student gets even more
reinforcement about the nature of the steady state and its relationship to savings
and depreciation.
Finally, a graph (Figure 1) can be drawn to illustrate the steady state visually.
The steady-state level of the capital stock occurs where the horizontal S curve,
which represents the autonomous level of savings, crosses the D curve, which rep-
resents the level of depreciation and whose slope is the depreciation rate. On the
basis of the previous discussion, one can see that whenever the initial capital
stock is below K*, the capital stock will rise during the next period by the verti-
cal difference between the curves. Whenever the initial capital stock is greater
than K*, the capital stock will fall similarly by the difference. Once the economy
arrives at K*, it is in a steady-state equilibrium because all of the savings is
absorbed by depreciation. The student can raise or lower the autonomous savings
curve to observe the effects of savings on capital accumulation. The student can
also rotate the depreciation curve by changing its slope, which is the depreciation
rate. These effects will carry over once I introduce the original Solow model.
CONCLUSION
One might object to the lack of pedagogical purity of the BSM exercise with
the charge that the flow-savings equilibrium component of this model is imposed
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TABLE 3. Capital Accumulation when Savings Is $70, the Initial CapitalStock Is $300, and the Depreciation Rate Is 20 Percent
NetTime K ($) S ($) Depreciation ($) investment ($)
1 300.00 70.00 60.00 10.002 310.00 70.00 62.00 8.003 318.00 70.00 63.60 6.404 324.40 70.00 64.88 5.125 329.52 70.00 65.90 4.106 333.62 70.00 66.72 3.287 336.89 70.00 67.38 2.628 339.51 70.00 67.90 2.109 341.61 70.00 68.32 1.68
10 343.29 70.00 68.66 1.34...
43 350.00 70.00 70.00 0.00
Note. K � capital stock; S � savings. Autonomous savings � $70.00; Depreciation rate �0.20; Steady-state capital � $350.00.
by assumption. For this, I offer no apology because this is one case where the end
really does justify the means. Once students understand this abbreviated model,
it becomes easier to move to more advanced versions of the Solow model where
savings is determined by the technology available to the firm. We thus can replace
the horizontal savings curve with an upward sloping savings function as was done
by O’Sullivan and Sheffrin (2006, 190–91) in their principles text. They assumed
that the level of labor and technology is fixed, and appealed to the upward slop-
ing total product of capital curve and a fixed average propensity to save to obtain
a savings curve that is an upward sloping function of the capital stock. Other than
that, the rationale for this intersection being a steady state is exactly the same as
for the BSM. Although I feel uncomfortable using a model in which savings are
assumed to be autonomous, if I want students to learn the standard Solow model,
I believe that I have no choice but to start out this way.
In the analysis presented in intermediate texts, BSM equation (1) is replaced
with equation
�K � sY � �K , (4)
where S0 is replaced by sY where s is the savings rate. This equation can be found
in Delong (2002, 99) and Mankiw (2003, 185). The steady state is obtained by
setting �K equal to zero to obtain
K/Y � s/�, (5)
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FIGURE 1. The steady state of the beginner’s Solow model.
which is similar to equation (3). This expression for the steady-state, capital-
output ratio is a special case of the following found in DeLong (2002, 76)
K/Y � s/(n � g � �), (6)
where n represents the proportional growth rate of the labor force, and g represents
the proportional rate of growth in the efficiency of the labor force (EL) where the
production function is
Y � K�(EL)1–�. (7)
It is interesting that the BSM diagram in Figure 1 is visually identical to one
found in an essay on DeLong’s Web site (http://econ161.berkeley.edu/
macro_online/gt.primer.pdf) titled “Growth: An Introduction,” as a primer to
growth theory. The only difference is in the interpretation of the two curves. In
DeLong’s graph, the horizontal line represents the savings rate, not autonomous
savings. There is also a line through the origin that represents the effect not only
of depreciation but also of growth in the labor force and the growth of technical
change.
Also, once students understand the process of capital accumulation in the BSM
model, it really is not difficult to run through the exercise in Table 7-2 of Mankiw
(2003, 188) in which capital and labor are inserted into a production function to
compute output, which is then multiplied by the savings rate to get the level of
savings. So, once students master the BSM, they are not too many steps removed
from a conventional Solow model with labor force growth and technological
progress.
REFERENCES
Colander, D. 2000. Telling better stories in introductory macro. American Economic Review 90(May): 76–80.
DeLong, J. B. 2002. Macroeconomics. New York: Irwin McGraw-Hill.Mankiw, N. G. 2003. Macroeconomics. New York: Worth.O’Sullivan, A., and S. Sheffrin. 2006. Macroeconomics: Principles and tools. Englewood Cliffs, NJ:
Prentice-Hall.Taylor, J. 2000. Teaching macroeconomics at the principles level. American Economic Review 90
(March): 90–94.
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