Before the Bell - cdn.ameriprisecontent.com · • The path forward for the fed funds target range...

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recommendation of any securities mentioned. Charts depicted are from FactSet unless otherwise noted. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2019 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. of 13

Before the Bell Morning Market Brief

August 1, 2019

FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY: Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist

• Quick Take: U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open; European markets are trading mostly higher; Asia ended mostly in the red overnight; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading at $57.54; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 2.01%.

• Market Implications From Yesterday’s Fed Rate Cut: Before Wednesday’s widely expected 25 basis point fed funds rate cut from the Federal Reserve, it had been 3,878 days (or 10.5+ years) since the FOMC delivered its last interest rate cut. The embedded FactSet chart below helps illuminate the length of that near-record stretch. The streak between rate cuts is the second longest on record and is only surpassed by the 4,115 days that passed between cuts in the fed funds rate back in 1954, according to Bespoke Investment Group. With the streak between rate cuts now broken and the Fed showing a willingness to become more accommodative if necessary to keep the longest economic expansion on track, investors are quickly starting to ask, “What’s an easier Fed mean for the market and my portfolio?”

Before The Bell August 1, 2019 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2019 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. of 13

• Before we dig in, below are a few high points from yesterday’s FOMC policy statement and follow-up comments from Chairman Powell that we believe help shed some light on that question.

• Not much changed in yesterday’s policy statement versus the June version, other than the Fed pointing to pressures on the global economic outlook and muted inflation levels as a reason to lower its fed funds target range by 25 basis points.

• The path forward for the fed funds target range is likely to be driven by incoming economic data. The market took this as a disappointment.

• However, the FOMC policy statement pointed to a willingness of members to act as appropriate to sustain the economic expansion. This is a positive, in our view.

• The Fed will conclude its balance sheet reduction efforts in August, two months earlier than expected. Also, a market positive.

• Yet, stocks sold off aggressively during Mr. Powell’s press conference and into the close yesterday, as his comments to Q&A were not seen as dovish enough for confirmation more cuts are coming.

• Despite a fed funds cut, market takeaways from the Fed meeting were hawkish, with two FOMC members dissenting (the most in Mr. Powell’s tenure as Chair), the U.S. dollar strengthening, yield curve flattening, and stocks down. Bottom line: Markets are worried about a one and done cut, with two still possible, but odds of three cuts this year down significantly after Mr. Powell’s press conference.

• Also helping to color the market landscape, and add context to yesterday’s Fed decision, we highlight a few additional points investors should carefully consider, starting with the stock market. As the FactSet chart below shows, the S&P 500 Index has gained nearly +19% this year. Absent a large slowdown in the economy/earnings or an unexpected escalation in trade tensions with China (which are real risks), we believe U.S. stock prices could see a tailwind from lower interest rates through year-end. Market expectations for future rate cuts and the reasons why or why not the Fed meets those expectations could play a critical role in deciding the magnitude of any further gains or losses in stock prices during the second half. Nevertheless, net-net, a stable fundamental backdrop accompanied by lower interest rates should be positive for risk assets through year-end.

• Note: On average, the S&P 500 Index has lost 1.2% in the month after the Fed cuts rates going back to 1994, according to Bespoke. While easier monetary policy is generally viewed as a positive for risk assets, at least over the near-term, the Index has performed poorly following rate cuts.



• And to be clear, the Fed did not reduce its fed funds rate yesterday because the economy is in desperate need of more accommodation. Rather, FOMC members provided an insurance cut to help a ‘softening’ U.S. economy through a tough patch, given the economic difficulties in other countries, low inflation levels here at home, and the uncertainties surrounding trade.

• As the FactSet chart below shows, at the most basic level, the U.S. economy is growing near longer-term trend levels and hardly indicates the need for aggressive interest rate cuts, at least from a rear-view mirror perspective. From a forward-looking view, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW model indicates third quarter growth of nearly +2.0%, again, not an environment that suggests a need for massive monetary stimulus efforts. As such, the economic backdrop and interest rate environment is supportive for U.S. risk assets, in our view.

• Further, the employment backdrop is the best its been in decades, and consumer confidence is near its highest levels over the last twenty years, shown by the FactSet chart below. Bottom line: a consumer that is confident, working, and has money in his/her pocket to spend could be positive for the economy, corporate profits, and stock prices through year-end. Investors will get an update on employment trends tomorrow with the July nonfarm payrolls report.

• However, the short-end of the yield curve continues to be a modest issue for investors, moving in and out of inversion, as the FactSet chart below highlights. While technical factors in the bond market and level of interest rates could influence the recessionary indicator, it is not always a good predictor of a pending economic slowdown. While investors should exercise some caution across their portfolios today, and as yesterday’s Fed



action signals, we believe investors should also not lean too heavily on reading too much into the inversion in the yield curve.

• Lastly, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index (based on the current dividend payment) is very close to the yield on the 10-year US. Treasury, seen in the FactSet chart below. In our view, investors with a long enough time horizon could become more attracted to an ‘income + growth’ strategy over time and as opposed to clipping a coupon on government debt. The big caveat? The growth outlook in the U.S. needs to stay on track.

• Although risk assets overall may face some near-term volatility given where Fed rate cut expectations ultimately land over the coming weeks and months, we believe a 25 basis point cut given where the economy stands today, could help support equity prices through year-end all else equal.



• Asia-Pacific: Asian equities finished in the red on Thursday. Although manufacturing activity in China remained in contraction this month by a tick, Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 49.9 and above the consensus of 49.5. In June, China manufacturing activity came in at 49.4. New orders and output returned to expansion in July, while new export orders improved slightly, but still sit in contraction. Some companies continued to comment that the trade dispute with the U.S. was weighing on export sales.

• Both Reuters and Bloomberg noted that the manufacturing slowdown in China is not exclusive. The U.S./China trade war has contributed to slowing manufacturing activity across Asia. Manufacturing activity in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Malaysia has slowed over recent months, with several countries now deep into contraction.

• According to Reuters, Beijing described this week’s U.S./China trade talks as constructive, with the White House also using a similar tone in how it described the two sides first meeting since before the G20 meeting in June. However, no breakthroughs in an agreement were reached, as expected, and both sides agreed to reconvene in September. Importantly, The Wall Street Journal highlighted that Beijing officials increasingly believe its economy is bottoming out and is in no hurry to make concessions with the Trump administration. While we don’t necessarily agree with this read, China may believe the trade dispute could cause larger problems for President Trump as the 2020 election nears. That may well be the case if growth is slow or contracts in the U.S., but if it remains stable, we believe voters may dismiss the trade dispute or be more likely to support the administration’s tougher stance on China.

• Europe: Markets across the region are trading mostly in the green at mid-day. Eurozone final July manufacturing PMI came in at 46.5, just a tick better than expected, and worse than the 47.6 level seen in June. The downturn in overall manufacturing activity was due to a sharp drop in new orders, which was the second steepest in six years, according to FactSet. Prices also fell by the sharpest rate in three years.

• The Bank of England (BOE) left interest rate policy unchanged today, as expected, but sees a 1 in 3 chance the UK economy will contract in the first quarter of 2020. Brexit uncertainty was the main driver of the more pessimistic view among governors over the near-term, and the BOE admitted its rather optimistic growth outlook in 2021 is of little practical use at present, considering the Brexit overhang.

• U.S.: Equity futures are pointing to a moderately higher open this morning. With just over 65% of S&P 500 company reports complete, the blended Q2’19 earnings per share (EPS) growth rate has declined 1.7% y/y. However, the rate of decline in earnings growth is better than the -2.7% expected at the end of June. Just over 76% of companies have surpassed analyst Q2 EPS estimates, which is better than the five-year average of 72%, according to FactSet. In aggregate, S&P 500 companies are surpassing earnings expectations by 5.5%, with earnings themes centered around a strong U.S. consumer, softer industrial activity, global uncertainty, tariff pressures, and falling second half earnings estimates.

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WORLD CAPITAL MARKETS (all data as of approximately 8:00 AM ET)

Americas % chg. % YTD Value Europe (Intra-day) % chg. %YTD Value Asia/Pacific (Last Night) % chg. %YTD Value

S&P 500 -1.09% 20.25% 2,980.4 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) 0.34% 19.55% 3,478.5 Nikkei 225 (Japan) 0.09% 8.89% 21,541.0 Dow Jones -1.23% 16.70% 26,864.3 FTSE 100 (U.K.) -0.30% 15.29% 7,563.9 HK Hang Seng ( H. Kong) -0.76% 9.32% 27,565.7 NASDAQ -1.19% 23.95% 8,175.4 DAX Index (Germany) 0.19% 15.65% 12,212.0 Korea Kospi 100 -0.36% -0.74% 2,017.3 Russell 2000 -0.69% 17.65% 1,574.6 CAC 40 (France) 0.41% 20.56% 5,541.5 Singapore STI -0.27% 10.01% 3,291.8 Brazil Bovespa -1.09% 15.84% 101,812.1 FTSE MIB (Italy) 0.21% 17.03% 21,443.7 Shanghai Comp. (China) -0.81% 19.19% 2,908.8 S&P/TSX Comp. (Canada) -0.36% 16.59% 16,406.6 IBEX 35 (Spain) 0.31% 8.43% 8,999.1 Bombay Sensex (India) -1.23% 3.54% 37,018.3 Mexico IPC -0.72% 0.17% 40,863.1 Russia TI -0.82% 19.76% 4,758.7 S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) -0.35% 23.64% 6,788.9

Global % chg. % YTD Value Developed International % chg. %YTD Value Emerging International % chg. %YTD Value

MSCI All-Country World Idx -0.70% 17.00% 524.4 MSCI EAFE -0.15% 13.11% 1,897.1 MSCI Emerging Mkts -0.59% 9.48% 1,037.0 Note: International market returns shown on a local currency basis. Equity index data is total return, inclusive of dividends.

S&P 500 Sectors % chg. % YTD Value Equity Income Indices % chg. % YTD Value Commodities Consumer Discretionary -1.18% 23.00% 954.1 JPM Alerian MLP Index -0.40% 12.18% 25.0 Futures & Spot (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD ValueConsumer Staples -1.99% 19.08% 611.2 FTSE NAREIT Comp. -0.41% 21.11% 20,098.8 CRB Raw Industrials 0.00% -6.86% 447.5 Energy -0.53% 11.11% 462.5 DJ US Select Dividend -0.75% 14.56% 2,131.3 NYMEX WTI Crude (p/bbl.) -1.95% 26.49% 57.4 Financials -0.43% 20.12% 469.5 DJ Global Select Dividend -0.48% 3.00% 213.0 ICE Brent Crude (p/bbl.) -1.49% 19.11% 64.1 Real Estate -0.30% 22.52% 231.8 S&P Div. Aristocrats -1.24% 17.01% 2,804.7 NYMEX Nat Gas (mmBtu) 3.45% -21.43% 2.3 Health Care -0.99% 6.35% 1,054.0 Spot Gold (troy oz.) -0.73% 9.43% 1,403.5 Industrials -1.05% 22.19% 655.6 Spot Silver (troy oz.) -1.65% 3.23% 16.0 Materials -1.49% 16.83% 365.5 Bond Indices % chg. % YTD Value LME Copper (per ton) -0.38% -0.79% 5,902.3 Technology -1.47% 31.36% 1,417.3 Barclays US Agg. Bond 0.15% 6.35% 2,176.5 LME Aluminum (per ton) -0.35% -4.91% 1,771.3 Communication Services -1.11% 23.10% 169.2 Barclays HY Bond 0.07% 10.56% 2,111.0 CBOT Corn (cents p/bushel) 0.37% 3.52% 411.5 Utilities -0.53% 14.38% 301.9 CBOT Wheat (cents p/bushel) -0.36% -8.09% 485.5

Foreign Exchange (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD ValueEuro (€/$) -0.4% -3.8% 1.10 Japanese Yen ($/¥) -0.02% 0.82% 108.80 Canadian Dollar ($/C$) -0.3% 3.1% 1.32 British Pound (£/$) -0.4% -5.0% 1.21 Australian Dollar (A$/$) -0.09% -2.98% 0.68 Swiss Franc ($/CHF) -0.2% -1.4% 1.00 Data/Price Source: Bloomberg; Equity Index data is total return, inclusive of dividends where applicable.

Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee U.S. Equity Sector - Tactical View

S&P 500 GAAC GAAC S&P 500 GAAC GAACIndex GAAC Tactical Recommended Index GAAC Tactical Recommended

Sector Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight Sector Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight

1) Communication Services 10.2% Underweight - 2.0% 8.2% 6) Health Care 14.3% Overweight +2.0% 16.3%

2) Consumer Discretionary 10.2% Equalweight - 10.2% 7) Industrials 9.3% Equalweight - 9.3%

3) Consumer Staples 7.3% Equalweight - 7.3% 8) Information Technology 21.6% Overweight +2.0% 23.6%

4) Energy 5.0% Equalweight - 5.0% 9) Materials 2.7% Equalweight - 2.7%

5) Financials 12.9% Underweight - 2.0% 10.9% 10) Real Estate 3.1% Overweight +1.0% 4.1%

11) Utilities 3.4% Underweight - 1.0% 2.4%

Index weighting represents relative weightings based on the regional market capitalization balance of the MSCI All-Country World Index; may not add due to rounding. The GAAC Tactical Overlay, as well as Recommended Tactical Weights, is derived from the Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee (GAAC).Views are expressed relative to the Index and are provided to represent investment conviction in each region. Tactical Allocations are designed to augment Index returns over a 6-12 month time horizon. Index weights as of 6/21/19. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee Global Equity Region - Tactical View

MSCI All-Country GAAC GAAC MSCI All-Country GAAC GAACWorld Index GAAC Tactical Recommended World Index GAAC Tactical Recommended

Region Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight Region Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight

1) United States 55.5% Overweight +4.3% 59.8% 5) Latin America 1.5% Equalweight - 1.5%

2) Canada 3.0% Equalweight - 3.0% 6) Asia-Pacific ex Japan 12.2% Equalweight - 12.2%

3) United Kingdom 5.0% Underweight - 1.0% 4.0% 7) Japan 7.0% Underweight - 1.0% 6.0%

4) Europe ex U.K. 14.5% Underweight - 1.0% 13.5% 8) Middle East / Africa 1.3% Underweight - 1.3% -

Index weighting represents relative weightings based on the regional market capitalization balance of the MSCI All-Country World Index; may not add due to rounding. The GAAC Tactical Overlay, as well as Recommended Tactical Weights, is derived from the Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee (GAAC).Views are expressed relative to the Index and are provided to represent investment conviction in each region. Tactical Allocations are designed to augment Index returns over a 6-12 month time horizon. Index weights as of 6/21/19. Numbers may not add due to rounding.



BY THE NUMBERS: ECONOMIC ACTUALS AND FORECAST:

ECONOMIC NEWS OUT TODAY: Economic Releases for Thursday, August 1, 2019. All times Eastern. Consensus estimates via Bloomberg. Time Period Release Consensus Est. Actual Prior Revised to 8:30 AM Jul 27 Initial Jobless Claims 214k 206k 206k 8:30 AM Jul 20 Continuing Claims 1678k 1676k 1676k 10:00 AM JUL ISM Manufacturing Index 52.0 51.7 10:00 AM JUL ISM Prices Paid 49.0 47.9 10:00 AM JUL ISM New Orders 50.5 50.0 10:00 AM JUL Construction Spending +0.3% -0.8% NA JUL Total U.S. Auto Sales 16.9M 17.3M Economic Perspective: Russell T. Price, CFA – Chief Economist • From an economic perspective, we really don’t have much to say about yesterday’s Fed move that has not already

been said. The action was generally as expected – though financial market expectations may have been more dovish than those of most economic forecasters. As we’ve said, we see the move as having very little to no tangible impact on economic activity. Market-based rates (i.e., the rates experienced by consumers and businesses) had already dropped by a much larger amount over the last several months relative to the Fed’s cut and are unlikely to drop further as a result of the move. However, in our view the Fed cut was appropriate given that gets Fed rates closer to being in-line with market-based rates, especially in respect the little noticed, interest being paid by the Fed on excess bank reserves. In our opinion, this rate is still too high relative to bank alternatives, and it may tilt the Fed toward at least one more 25 basis point cut in the next few months.

• Separately, financial markets could show some sensitivity to the ISM measure of national manufacturing activity (for July) due out at 10 AM ET this morning. Forecasters as surveyed by Bloomberg expect the measure to come-in at a reading of 52 versus the 51.7 reported for June. Our estimate, however, is for a reading of 51.2, which would represent the lowest pace of month-over-month expansion in the sector since August 2016.

• Concern over eh report, however, should be tempered. As seen in the chart at right (as sourced from FactSet), U.S. manufacturing activity (as indicated by the green line) has slowed considerably over the last several months due to a variety of factors: A. the trade dispute with China, B. an inventory glut that is in the process of being worked down (also somewhat related to China), C. Boeing’s issues with the 737 Max, C. lower export demand due to the higher U.S. dollar, D. weaker business investment spending due to trade uncertainty, and

Current Projections:Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Est. Actual Actual Est. Est.2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019

Real GDP (YOY) 2.5% 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 2.2% 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2.2%Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%CPI (YoY) 1.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.4% 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1%Core PCE (YoY) 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Sources: Historical data via FactSet. Estimates (Est.) via American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.

YoY = Year-over-year, Unemployment numbers are period ending. GDP: Gross Domestic Product; CPI: Consumer Price Index

PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Core excludes food and energy Last Updated:

Quarterly

July 26, 2019



E. weaker demand for equipment from the oil and gas sector given the drop in crude oil prices relative to last year’s second half. We view the majority of these factors as somewhat transitory and strong ongoing demand consumers should continue to offer solid support to the sector until some of these issues fade.

FIXED INCOME NEWS & VIEWS: Brian M. Erickson, CFA, Fixed Income Research & Strategy

• Bond Market Update: Treasury yields drifted higher this morning in early trading after a twist Wednesday that saw sort yields rise and long yields fall.

• The Bank of England left policy rates unchanged this morning noting rising uncertainty from the potential of an uncontrolled Brexit later this year given the direction provided by recently appointed Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Fed Cuts Fed Funds Rate by a Quarter Point as We Expected • The Fed decided Wednesday the fed funds target range to 2.00% to 2.25%, a quarter point lower. Between December

2015 and December 2018 the Fed lifted the target rate nine times by a quarter point representing one of the longest rate hike cycles in history, which contrasts with the meager 225 basis points of hikes already this cycle. We believe the Fed’s slow pace is a reflection of the muted inflation dynamics present through the current expansion.

• The Fed also announced the end to its asset purchase program in August, wrapping up the program after 23 months. Beginning in September 2018, the program saw the Fed’s balance sheet declined from $4.5 trillion to $3.8 trillion when finally done later this month. When initiated, we estimated the Fed may reduce its balance sheet by $2 trillion, but as the Fed transitioned away from removing stimulus the Fed cut the monthly limit on the amount eligible to roll off each year from $50 billion to ease the transition for the market. We believe it makes sense for the program to end given that the roll-off was a tightening measure. Given the transition to a mid-cycle easing, it’s congruent to end the balance sheet program this month.

• Markets prefer a steady direction that can gather momentum and progress in a known direction. This is the baseline state for equity markets that trend higher over long periods of time. Unfortunately, economic conditions are in transition; an uncomfortable state for markets. We continue to see U.S. growth as likely to maintain moderate growth, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than 2018. As a result, we see the insurance cut as a limited move of potentially only the quarter percent the Fed took yesterday. The wide dispersion of views around the Fed reflect the transitional state of conditions and parallel the transition outlined by Chair Powell yesterday; a transition from tightening policy in 4Q 2018 to patient in 1Q and now to accommodative in 3Q.

• Cutting through the clutter – Federal Reserve Chairman Powell identified the three standards framing up the policy today: 1) the impact of trade uncertainty, which the Fed views as less pronounced now than in the second quarter, 2) Economic growth in the U.S. with growth pulling in more people into the labor force, and abroad through the feedback from overseas on the U.S., and 3) inflation, which remains below the Fed’s 2% target for core PCE. Though there is certainly a degree of change in how the Fed has reacted over the past nine months, we believe this set of reference points should be the litmus test used for how the Fed may evolve policy over the next few meetings.

• We believe the Fed is unlikely to pursue further rate cuts without definitive support in economic data. This first quarter point insurance cut defines a desire to once again to have an accommodative bias representing a readiness to implement monetary stimulus rather than to take it away.

Bond market response – Yield curve twists • Short Treasuries sold off sending 2-year yields three basis points higher to 1.86% and 10-year Treasury yields fell

four basis points to 2.01%; flattening the curve. The short-end repriced higher as investors lowered expectations. Markets had already aggressively priced in further accommodation, so even with a perceived tightening from a bump higher for short-term rates is eclipsed by the 65 basis points of easing priced in over the past six months.

• We believe the correction on the short end could gain legs should economic data reflect resilient growth or continued progress in expanding labor markets. We anticipate the initial move lower for 10-year Treasury was in sympathy to the sell-off in U.S equity markets and may fade as equities adjust to the Fed’s reaction function as outlined by Chair Powell at his press conference yesterday. As a result, we anticipate 10s/2s remain resilient, and likely to avoid an inversion that would set up our positioning for a much more defensive tactical positioning in the back half of 2019 save for a catalyst for further uncertainty around trade.



The following is a summary of our current guidance as published in our latest Quarterly Capital Market Digest report dated July 19, 2019.

Year-end 2019 10-year Treasury Forecast = 2.50% (1.75% to 3.00% scenario range); We forecast a quarter point Fed rate cut to 2.00% to 2.25% in July. Our Fixed Income Recommendations for the following objectives:

Capital Preservation Total Return Income Key points: • Three-month T-bills yield 2.04%

this morning topping 1.6% CPI inflation in July.

• To the extent portfolios took on too much risk, return to the basics in higher quality investment grade bonds with maturities out through 5 years.

Key points: • Rebuild core fixed income as

85% of a moderate bond portfolio.

• Target a 6 year duration. • Tactical overweight to

Investment Grade Corporates. • Avoid leveraged credit exposure

and bank loan funds

Key points: • Though yields are low, current

U.S. bond yields are considerable higher than comparably rated developed market alternatives.

• Anticipating further monetary stimulus, look to term out maturities aligned with income liabilities.

We recommend: Return to short Treasuries and high-quality bond investments including a laddered portfolio approach.

We recommend: Rebuild core fixed income allocations for stability and diversification in blended portfolios.

We recommend: Be sure portfolios are not too short given the higher yields available in on the front-end. Asset liability matching approaches are best.

Source: Ameriprise Quarterly Capital Market Digest (7/19/19)

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Ameriprise Investment Research Group Ameriprise Financial 1441 West Long Lake Road, Suite 250, Troy, MI 48098 [email protected] For additional information or to locate your nearest branch office, visit ameriprise.com RESEARCH & DUE DILIGENCE LEADER

Lyle B. Schonberger - Vice President Business Unit Compliance Liaison (BUCL)

Jeff Carlson, CLU, ChFC – Manager

Investment Research Coordinator Kimberly K. Shores Sr Administrative Assistant Jillian Willis EQUITY RESEARCH Equity Research Director Justin H. Burgin – Vice President

Consumer Goods and Services Patrick S. Diedrickson, CFA – Director

Energy/Utilities William Foley, ASIP – Director

Financial Services/REITs Lori Wilking-Przekop – Sr Director

Health Care Daniel Garofalo – Director

Industrials/Materials Frederick M. Schultz – Director

Technology/Telecommunication Curtis R. Trimble – Director

Quantitative Strategies/International Andrew R. Heaney, CFA – Director

STRATEGISTS CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST David M. Joy – Vice President GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST Anthony M. Saglimbene – Vice President

Thomas Crandall, CFA, CAIA – Sr Director, Asset Allocation

Daniel Balter, CFA – Analyst – Quantitative, Asset Allocation

Gaurav Sawhney – Research Analyst

Amit Tiwari – Sr Research Associate CHIEF ECONOMIST Russell T. Price, CFA – Vice President MANAGER RESEARCH

Michael V. Jastrow, CFA – Vice President

Jeffrey R. Lindell, CFA – Director – ETFs & CEFs

Mark Phelps, CFA – Director – Multi-Asset Solutions Equities Christine A. Pederson, CAIA, CIMA – Sr Director – Growth Equity, Infrastructure & REIT

Benjamin L. Becker, CFA – Director – International/Global Equity

Alex Zachman – Analyst – Core Equity

Cynthia Tupy, CFA – Analyst – Value and Equity Income Equity Fixed Income & Alternatives Jay C. Untiedt, CFA, CAIA – Sr Director – Alternatives

Steven T. Pope, CFA, CFP® – Director – Non-Core Fixed Income

Douglas D. Noah – Analyst – Core Taxable & Tax-Exempt Fixed Income

Blake Hockert – Associate – Reporting & Analytics

FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & STRATEGY

Fixed Income Research Brian M. Erickson, CFA – Vice President High Yield and Investment Grade Credit Jon Kyle Cartwright – Sr Director

Stephen Tufo – Director INVESTMENT DUE DILIGENCE

Justin E. Bell, CFA – Vice President

Kurt J. Merkle, CFA, CAIA – Sr Director

Kay S. Nachampassak – Director

Peter W. LaFontaine – Sr Analyst

James P. Johnson, CFA, CFP® – Sr Analyst

David Hauge, CFA – Analyst

Bishnu Dhar – Sr Research Analyst

Parveen Vedi – Sr Research Associate

Darakshan Ali – Research Process Trainee



The content in this report is authored by American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. (“AEIS”) and distributed by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. (“AFSI”) to financial advisors and clients of AFSI. AEIS and AFSI are affiliates and subsidiaries of Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Both AEIS and AFSI are member firms registered with FINRA and are subject to the objectivity safeguards and disclosure requirements relating to research analysts and the publication and distribution of research reports. The “Important Disclosures” below relate to the AEIS research analyst(s) that prepared this publication. The “Disclosures of Possible Conflicts of Interest” section, where applicable, relates to the conflicts of interest of each of AEIS and AFSI, their affiliates and their research analysts, as applicable, with respect to the subject companies mentioned in the report. Each of AEIS and AFSI have implemented policies and procedures reasonably designed to ensure that its employees involved in the preparation, content and distribution of research reports, including dually registered employees, do not influence the objectivity or timing of the publication of research report content. All research policies, coverage decisions, compensation, hiring and other personnel decisions with respect to research analysts are made by AEIS, which is operationally independent of AFSI. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES As of June 30, 2019 The views expressed regarding the company(ies) and sector(s) featured in this publication reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) authoring the publication. Further, no part of research analyst compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this publication. A part of a research analyst’s compensation may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading are components. No part of a research analyst’s compensation is based on a specific investment banking transaction, nor is it based on sales, trading, or principal trading. A research analyst may have visited the material operations of one or more of the subject companies mentioned in this research report. No payment was received for the related travel costs. Additional information and current research disclosures on individual companies mentioned in this research report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. You may also submit a written request to Ameriprise Financial, Inc., 1441 West Long Lake Road, Troy MI, 48098. Independent third-party research on individual companies is available to clients at ameriprise.com/research-market-insights. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov. Tactical asset class recommendations mentioned in this report reflect The Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee’s general view of the financial markets, as of the date of the report, based on then current conditions. Our tactical recommendations may differ materially from what is presented in a customized long-term financial plan or portfolio strategy. You should view our recommendations in conjunction with a broader long-term portfolio strategy. Not all products, services, or asset classes mentioned in this report may be available for sale at Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Please consult with your financial advisor. Diversification and Asset Allocation do not assure a profit or protect against loss. RISK FACTORS Dividend and interest payments are not guaranteed. The amount of dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce or eliminate dividends paid on securities

in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer. Should a company be unable to pay interest on a timely basis a default may occur and interruption or reduction of interest and principal occur. Investments in a narrowly focused sector may exhibit higher volatility than investments with broader objectives and is subject to market risk and economic risk. Income Risk: We note that dividends are declared solely at the discretion of the companies’ boards of directors. Dividend cuts or eliminations will likely negatively impact underlying company valuations. Published dividend yields are calculated before fees and taxes. Dividends paid by foreign companies to ADR holders may be subject to a withholding tax which could adversely affect the realized dividend yield. In certain circumstances, investors in ADR shares have the option to receive dividends in the form of cash payments, rights shares or ADR shares. Each form of dividend payment will have different tax consequences and therefore generate a different yield. In some instances, ADR holders are eligible to reclaim a portion of the withholding tax. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets. Market Risk: Equity markets in general could sustain significant volatility due to several factors. As we have seen recently, both economic and geopolitical issues could have a material impact on this model portfolio and the equity market as a whole. Quantitative Strategy Risk: Stock selection and portfolio maintenance strategies based on quantitative analytics carry a unique set of risks. Quantitative strategies rely on comprehensive, accurate and thorough historical data. The Ameriprise Investment Research Group utilizes current and historical data provided by third-party data vendors. Material errors in database construction and maintenance could have an adverse effect on quantitative research and the resulting stock selection strategies. PRODUCT RISK DISCLOSURES Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. For additional information on individual ETFs, see available

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third-party research which provides additional investment highlights. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov All fixed income securities are subject to a series of risks which may include, but are not limited to: interest rate risk, call risk, refunding risk, default risk, inflations risk, liquidity risk and event risk. Please review these risks with your financial advisor to better understand how these risks may affect your investment choices. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities. This means you may lose money if you sell a bond prior to maturity as a result of interest rate or other market movement. Any information relating to the income or capital gains tax treatment of financial instruments or strategies discussed herein is not intended to provide specific tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. A real estate investment trust or REIT is a company that owns and operates income-producing real estate. In addition, some REITs participate in the financing of real estate. To qualify as a REIT, a company must: I) invest at least 75% of its total assets in real estate assets, II) generate at least 75% of its gross income from real property or interest, and III) pay at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of distributions. A company that qualifies as a REIT is permitted to deduct the distributions paid to shareholders from its corporate taxes. Consequently, many REITs target to payout at least 100% of taxable income, resulting in virtually no corporate taxes. An investment in a REIT is subject to many of the same risks as a direct investment in real estate including, but not limited to: Illiquidity and valuation complexities, redemption restrictions, distribution and diversification limits, tax consequences, fees, defaults by borrowers or tenants, market saturation, balloon payments, refinancing, bankruptcy, decreases in market rates for rents and other economic, political, or regulatory occurrences affecting the real estate industry. Ratings are provided by Moody’s Investors Services and Standard & Poor’s. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as "high-yield" or "junk" bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue. Securities offered through AFSI may not be suitable for all investors. Consult with your financial advisor for more information regarding the suitability of a particular investment. For further information on fixed income securities please refer to FINRA’s Smart Bond Investing at FINRA.org, MSRB’s Electronic Municipal Market Access at emma.msrb.org, or Investing in Bonds at investinginbonds.com. DEFINITIONS OF TERMS Agency – Agency bonds are issued by Government Sponsored

Enterprises (GSE), but are NOT direct obligations of the U.S. government. Common GSE’s are the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. (Freddie Mac) Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB). Beta: A measure of the risk arising from exposure to general market movements as opposed to company-specific factors. Betas in this report, unless otherwise noted, use the S&P 500 as the market benchmark and result from calculations over historic periods. A beta below 1.0, for example, can suggest the equity has tended to move with lower volatility than the broader market or, due to company-specific factors, has had higher volatility but generally low correlations with the overall market. Corporate Bonds – Are debt instruments issued by a private corporation. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as “high-yield” or “junk” bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue. Mortgage Backed Securities – Bonds are subject to prepayment risk. Yield and average lives shown consider prepayment assumptions that may not be met. Changes in payments may significantly affect yield and average life. Please contact your financial advisor for information on CMOs and how they react to different market conditions. Municipal Bonds – Interest income may be subject to state and/or local income taxes and/or the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Municipal securities subject to AMT assume a “nontaxable” status for yield calculations. Certain municipal bond income may be subject to federal income tax and are identified as “taxable”. Gains on sales/redemptions of municipal bonds may be taxed as capital gains. If the bonds are insured, the insurance pertains to the timely payment of principal (at maturity) and interest by the insurer of the underlying securities and not to the price of the bond, which will fluctuate prior to maturity. The guarantees are backed by the claims-paying ability of the listed insurance company. Treasury Securities – There is no guarantee as to the market value of these securities if they are sold prior to maturity or redemption. Price/Book: A financial ratio used to compare a company’s market share price, as of a certain date, to its book value per share. Book value relates to the accounting value of assets and liabilities in a company’s balance sheet. It is generally not a direct reflection of future earnings prospects or hard to value intangibles, such as brand, that could help generate those earnings. Price/Earnings: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by earnings per share. Trailing P/E uses the share price divided by the past four-quarters’ earnings per share. Forward P/E uses the share price as of a certain date divided by the consensus estimate of the future four-quarters’ EPS. Price/Sales: An equity valuation multiple calculated by dividing the market share price, as of a certain date, by the

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company’s sales per share over the most recent year. INDEX DEFINITIONS An index is a statistical composite that is not managed. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Definitions of individual indices mentioned in this report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. DISCLAIMER SECTION Except for the historical information contained herein, certain matters in this report are forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon certain risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, such factors and considerations as general market volatility, global economic and geopolitical impacts, fiscal and monetary policy, liquidity, the level of interest rates, historical sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle, consumer preferences, foreign currency exchange rates, litigation risk, competitive positioning, the ability to successfully integrate acquisitions, the ability to develop and commercialize new products and services, legislative risks, the pricing environment for products and services, and compliance with various local, state, and federal health care laws. See latest third-party research reports and updates for risks pertaining to a particular security. This summary is based upon financial information and statistical data obtained from sources deemed reliable, but in no way is warranted by Ameriprise Financial, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. This is not a solicitation by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. of any order to buy or sell securities. This summary is based exclusively on an analysis of general current market conditions, rather than the suitability of a specific proposed securities transaction. We will not advise you as to any change in figures or our views. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment products are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value. AFSI and its affiliates do not offer tax or legal advice. Consumers should consult with their tax advisor or attorney regarding their specific situation. Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC.

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