Beef and Veal - Time · Imports by a number of oil-reliant countries including Russia are reduced...
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United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA April 2015 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Million MT CWE India Widens Lead Over Brazil as Top Global Beef Exporter Brazil India 50 55 60 65 70 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Million MT CWE Million MT CWE World Beef Exports Reach Record Production Exports Beef and Veal: • Exports by major traders are revised nearly 3 percent higher from the October forecast to a record 10.2 million tons. Larger shipments from India and to a lesser extent the EU and Paraguay more than offset declines by Brazil, Uruguay, and the United States. Imports by a number of oil-reliant countries including Russia are reduced significantly on economic challenges such as declining oil revenues and weaker currencies. • U.S. production is revised up 2 percent to 11.1 million tons on higher cattle weights. Exports are revised 4 percent lower to 1.1 million tons due to a stronger dollar. Pork: • Exports by major traders are revised 5 percent lower to 6.8 million tons as a reduction in shipments by China, the United States and Brazil are not expected to offset gains by the EU. Aggregate import demand is negatively impacted by lower Russian imports due to its economic woes as well as the ban on shipments from key suppliers and disease-based restrictions. EU export expansion is supported by favorable prices in a number of markets including China. • U.S. production is revised 1 percent higher to a record 11.0 million tons as a lower incidence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) is expected to bolster slaughter-ready hog supplies. Despite increased production and competitive domestic prices, U.S. exports are forecast 9 percent lower to nearly 2.2 million tons as a strong dollar curbs demand. To receive the circular via email, register at https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/session/new.
Transcript of Beef and Veal - Time · Imports by a number of oil-reliant countries including Russia are reduced...
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
April 2015
0.5
1
1.5
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
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India Widens Lead Over Brazil as Top Global Beef Exporter
Brazil India
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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World Beef Exports Reach Record
Production Exports
Beef and Veal: • Exports by major traders are revised nearly 3 percent higher from the October forecast to a
record 10.2 million tons. Larger shipments from India and to a lesser extent the EU andParaguay more than offset declines by Brazil, Uruguay, and the United States. Imports by anumber of oil-reliant countries including Russia are reduced significantly on economicchallenges such as declining oil revenues and weaker currencies.
• U.S. production is revised up 2 percent to 11.1 million tons on higher cattle weights. Exports are revised 4 percent lower to 1.1 million tons due to a stronger dollar.
Pork: • Exports by major traders are revised 5 percent lower to 6.8 million tons as a reduction in
shipments by China, the United States and Brazil are not expected to offset gains by the EU.Aggregate import demand is negatively impacted by lower Russian imports due to itseconomic woes as well as the ban on shipments from key suppliers and disease-basedrestrictions. EU export expansion is supported by favorable prices in a number of marketsincluding China.
• U.S. production is revised 1 percent higher to a record 11.0 million tons as a lower incidenceof porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) is expected to bolster slaughter-ready hogsupplies. Despite increased production and competitive domestic prices, U.S. exports areforecast 9 percent lower to nearly 2.2 million tons as a strong dollar curbs demand.
To receive the circular via email, register at https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/session/new.
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Global Pork Trade Declines for 3rd Year
Production Exports
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2.25
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
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MT
CWE
EU Overtakes the United States as Leading Global Pork Exporter
European Union United States
Broiler Meat:
• Exports by major traders are revised 5 percent lower as declines in Brazil and the United States more than offset gains by the EU. Brazil’s shipments are constrained by slow economic growth in a number of countries despite opportunities in markets currently restricting the United States. Argentina’s exports to Venezuela are expected to contract due to economic weakness in Venezuela and lower oil prices. Angola’s imports are forecast to decline due to temporary trade restrictions and currency shortages.
• U.S. production is revised 1 percent higher to a record 18.0 million tons on increased slaughter and heavier weights. Despite increased supplies, U.S. exports are revised 9 percent lower to 3.0 million tons due to a stronger dollar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related trade restrictions with some countries.
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
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RTC
U.S. Broiler Meat Exports Fall
Production Exports
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70
80
90
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Global Broiler Meat Exports Decline
Production Exports
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
April 2015
Contents
Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry
Beef Beef Summary Tables Cattle Summary Tables
Pork Pork Summary Tables Swine Summary Tables
Poultry Meat
Broiler Meat Summary Tables
Notes to Readers
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (p) 2015 (f)
Percent Change 2014 to
2015
Beef and Veal 58,485 58,149 58,511 59,512 59,690 59,006 -1.1%Pork 102,973 103,565 106,950 108,821 110,476 110,874 0.4%Broiler Meat 78,357 81,346 83,416 84,606 86,348 87,328 1.1%
Total 239,815 243,060 248,877 252,939 256,514 257,208 0.3%
Beef and Veal 57,391 56,503 57,032 57,818 57,629 56,739 -1.5%Pork 102,786 103,154 106,342 108,361 109,954 110,305 0.3%Broiler Meat 77,182 80,021 81,776 83,091 84,668 85,540 1.0%
Total 237,359 239,678 245,150 249,270 252,251 252,584 0.1%
Beef and Veal 6,649 6,448 6,680 7,484 7,890 7,797 -1.2%Pork 5,845 6,557 6,858 6,595 6,363 6,025 -5.3%Broiler Meat 7,805 8,227 8,543 8,681 8,843 8,583 -2.9%
Total 20,299 21,232 22,081 22,760 23,096 22,405 -3.0%
Beef and Veal 7,794 8,072 8,138 9,126 10,003 10,200 2.0%Pork 6,029 6,954 7,268 7,029 6,887 6,816 -1.0%Broiler Meat 8,904 9,573 10,088 10,255 10,489 10,364 -1.2%
Total 22,727 24,599 25,494 26,410 27,379 27,380 0.0%
Beef and Veal 1,043 1,263 1,112 1,175 1,167 1,098 -5.9%Pork 1,915 2,356 2,440 2,264 2,204 2,155 -2.2%Broiler Meat 3,067 3,165 3,300 3,332 3,313 3,030 -8.5%
Total 6,025 6,784 6,852 6,771 6,684 6,283 -6.0%
Beef and Veal 13% 16% 14% 13% 12% 11%Pork 32% 34% 34% 32% 32% 32%Broiler Meat 34% 33% 33% 32% 32% 29%
Combined 27% 28% 27% 26% 24% 23%
Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Broiler Meat
Production
Consumption
Notes: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important markets in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.
U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders
Imports
Exports
U.S. Exports
Beef and Veal, Pork: 1,000 Tons Carcass Weight Equivalent / Broiler Meat: 1,000 Tons Ready to Cook Equivalent
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Production
9,82010,2159,7239,6759,3079,030 Brazil
7,4407,4757,4107,3887,7088,114 European Union
6,8256,4006,8906,7306,6236,475 China
4,5004,2504,1253,8003,4913,308 India
2,7002,8502,7002,8502,6202,530 Argentina
2,2752,3402,5952,3592,1522,129 Australia
1,8451,7651,8271,8071,8211,804 Mexico
1,7251,7251,6751,6301,5871,536 Pakistan
1,3701,4001,3701,3801,3801,360 Russia
1,0151,0101,0751,0491,0601,141 Canada
8,4368,4419,2229,0928,9148,739 Others
47,95147,87148,61247,76046,66346,166 Total Foreign
11,05510,86811,07811,75211,84811,983 United States
59,00658,73959,69059,51258,51158,149 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
7,9058,0557,8967,8857,8457,730 Brazil
7,4957,5857,4807,5207,7608,034 European Union
7,3056,8937,2977,0526,6806,449 China
2,5002,6502,5032,6642,4582,320 Argentina
2,1122,2152,2792,3932,3982,346 Russia
2,1002,3002,0432,0352,0802,040 India
1,8451,8101,8391,8731,8361,921 Mexico
1,6611,6611,6161,5761,5381,503 Pakistan
1,2281,2301,2261,2321,2551,237 Japan
9259409851,0171,019996 Canada
10,37110,60111,22110,96310,42410,281 Others
45,44745,94046,38546,21045,29344,857 Total Foreign
11,29210,94411,24411,60811,73911,646 United States
56,73956,88457,62957,81857,03256,503 Total
Notes: May contain meat of other bovines.From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire,
Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Total Imports
750750646473241152 Hong Kong
7508259191,0231,027994 Russia
720740739760737745 Japan
5005154174129929 China
400405392375370431 Korea, South
365355371376348365 European Union
275285284296301282 Canada
270260270195250217 Egypt
245235241245187180 Chile
215205207194174167 Malaysia
1,9872,2492,0672,1151,9391,953 Others
6,4776,8246,5536,4645,6735,515 Total Foreign
1,3201,2251,3371,0201,007933 United States
7,7978,0497,8907,4846,6806,448 Total
none
Total Exports
2,4001,9502,0821,7651,4111,268 India
2,0052,2351,9091,8491,5241,340 Brazil
1,5901,5901,8511,5931,4071,410 Australia
555575579529517503 New Zealand
440395389326251197 Paraguay
375355378332335426 Canada
375435350340360320 Uruguay
310245301244296445 European Union
225250196220156147 Belarus
210185194166200148 Mexico
617583607587569605 Others
9,1028,7988,8367,9517,0266,809 Total Foreign
1,0981,1451,1671,1751,1121,263 United States
10,2009,94310,0039,1268,1388,072 Total
Notes:May contain meat of other bovines.From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire,
Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Total Imports
50013532698117103 China
1701352001009570 Egypt
70100749714395 Russia
454545485673 Canada
304528301016 Mexico
10510005 Brazil
101011121412 Japan
111121 Belarus
131333 Ukraine
000001 Argentina
00565712616336 Others
8374791,2611,1011,056715 Total Foreign
2,2502,2252,3582,0332,2832,107 United States
3,0872,7043,6193,1343,3392,822 Total
none
Total Exports
1,2501,2251,1761,0451,5391,435 Mexico
1,1001,0501,2451,044821696 Canada
9001,1001,298851620695 Australia
510460499505678689 European Union
400820649689512405 Brazil
1003079334234 New Zealand
70701554178213 Uruguay
202020192629 China
2015261496 Russia
2020271124 Ukraine
118623630262 Others
4,3914,8115,2604,4884,6294,268 Total Foreign
105125108161191194 United States
4,4964,9365,3684,6494,8204,462 Total
Notes: May contain other bovines.From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela and excluded.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
301,100301,100300,600299,606300,000302,500 India
213,035212,700207,959203,273197,550190,925 Brazil
100,550102,950103,000103,434103,605106,264 China
88,15088,05087,61987,10687,05487,831 European Union
51,89551,69551,54551,09549,59748,156 Argentina
27,60027,60029,29029,00028,50627,550 Australia
19,13219,00019,56419,93020,13419,970 Russia
17,12017,17517,76018,52120,09021,456 Mexico
12,10812,11311,90311,38411,23211,241 Uruguay
11,91511,95012,22012,30512,24512,155 Canada
32,23532,15264,05266,10168,06470,023 Others
874,840876,485905,512901,755898,077898,071 Total Foreign
89,80087,75088,52690,09591,16092,887 United States
964,640964,235994,038991,850989,237990,958 Total
none
Production (Calf Crop)
67,00066,75066,00065,00063,50062,500 India
49,90051,70549,60050,18549,69049,445 Brazil
49,00045,50047,90048,80048,00044,500 China
29,30029,25029,15029,05029,80030,100 European Union
13,90013,90013,50014,00013,70013,100 Argentina
9,4009,7009,56410,2009,1219,614 Australia
6,8256,8256,7506,7006,8006,900 Mexico
6,5006,5456,6706,8206,9207,239 Russia
4,9755,1655,0804,9234,9264,786 New Zealand
4,4404,4404,5994,5164,4624,640 Canada
10,25010,35014,40514,80414,64414,544 Others
251,490250,130253,218254,998251,563247,368 Total Foreign
34,30033,40033,90033,73034,46935,357 United States
285,790283,530287,118288,728286,032282,725 Total
Notes: May contain other bovines.From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela are excluded.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Production
56,60057,35056,71054,93053,42750,604 China
22,45022,36522,40022,35922,52622,953 European Union
3,3333,4943,3133,2803,3303,227 Brazil
2,5602,8202,5102,4002,1752,064 Russia
2,4502,4502,4252,3492,3072,262 Vietnam
1,8401,8601,8151,8191,8401,812 Canada
1,3701,3901,3531,3401,3101,288 Philippines
1,3401,2901,2901,2841,2391,202 Mexico
1,2801,2791,2641,3091,2971,267 Japan
1,2401,1481,2001,2521,086837 Korea, South
5,4105,4315,8285,9755,8595,718 Others
99,873100,877100,10898,29796,39693,234 Total Foreign
11,00110,85810,36810,52410,55410,331 United States
110,874111,735110,476108,821106,950103,565 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
57,42558,25057,16955,40653,80251,108 China
20,21020,17520,23720,14720,38220,822 European Union
2,8052,7952,7592,6962,6702,644 Brazil
2,7593,1943,0243,2673,2393,035 Russia
2,5412,5522,5432,5492,5572,522 Japan
2,4142,4142,3892,3152,2752,238 Vietnam
2,0602,0051,9911,9561,8501,710 Mexico
1,7501,6401,7371,6281,5461,487 Korea, South
1,5791,5891,5521,5111,4461,432 Philippines
867862875892906919 Taiwan
6,5166,7137,0317,3327,2286,899 Others
100,926102,189101,30799,69997,90194,816 Total Foreign
9,3798,8748,6478,6628,4418,338 United States
110,305111,063109,954108,361106,342103,154 Total
Note:From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,
North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Total Imports
1,2551,2751,3321,2231,2591,254 Japan
840840818783706594 Mexico
8001,000761770730758 China
510485480388502640 Korea, South
360360347399414432 Hong Kong
210200200172138145 Philippines
200210214220241204 Canada
2003755158681,077971 Russia
190190191183194175 Australia
1201201179810597 Singapore
7848599311,0921,128923 Others
5,4695,9145,9066,1966,4946,193 Total Foreign
556408457399364364 United States
6,0256,3226,3636,5956,8586,557 Total
none
Total Exports
2,2502,2002,1772,2272,1652,150 European Union
1,2251,1801,2191,2461,2431,197 Canada
530700556585661584 Brazil
200300277244235244 China
160160163164180139 Chile
1201251171119586 Mexico
404040403632 Vietnam
373737363641 Australia
3030257410485 Belarus
20725464 Serbia
493647346736 Others
4,6614,8154,6834,7654,8284,598 Total Foreign
2,1552,3812,2042,2642,4402,356 United States
6,8167,1966,8877,0297,2686,954 Total
Note:From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,
North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Total Beginning Stocks
465,830475,000474,113475,922468,627464,600 China
146,400145,500146,172146,982149,809152,361 European Union
39,39539,04238,84438,57738,33636,652 Brazil
19,41319,00019,08118,81617,25817,231 Russia
13,16513,28012,94012,61012,62512,615 Canada
10,0909,1759,9129,9168,1718,449 Korea, South
9,7009,6259,7759,5109,2769,007 Mexico
9,5209,4009,5379,6859,7359,768 Japan
7,7777,6507,9227,5777,3737,960 Ukraine
2,9243,0003,2674,2433,9893,887 Belarus
1,9491,9862,0982,1382,2852,289 Others
726,163732,658733,661735,976727,484724,819 Total Foreign
66,14565,40064,77566,22466,25964,725 United States
792,308798,058798,436802,200793,743789,544 Total
none
Production (Pig Crop)
682,300689,500729,927720,971707,427670,196 China
260,000250,000259,000257,000257,600264,655 European Union
39,05038,40038,47037,90037,70037,750 Brazil
37,30040,70037,00036,00034,50030,650 Russia
27,55027,70027,07227,37628,34628,500 Canada
17,70016,30017,60017,80017,15016,975 Mexico
17,60015,40016,81216,95316,34013,308 Korea, South
17,05017,00017,10017,35017,25017,000 Japan
9,4009,4509,6509,4658,5388,109 Ukraine
4,9004,9004,5005,0005,2755,075 Belarus
4,7004,7004,6634,7374,5814,659 Others
1,117,5501,114,0501,161,7941,150,5521,134,7071,096,877 Total Foreign
118,468117,645113,596115,135116,655115,086 United States
1,236,0181,231,6951,275,3901,265,6871,251,3621,211,963 Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Total Imports
202022231225112 Ukraine
151014103112 Mexico
757241915 China
525315 Belarus
22221116 Korea, South
113123 Canada
111121 European Union
111111 Japan
10886340782 Russia
000000 Australia
010112 Others
534363360633949 Total Foreign
5,0904,8004,9494,9575,6565,795 United States
5,1434,8435,0125,3176,2896,744 Total
none
Total Exports
5,1004,8104,9604,7845,6765,821 Canada
1,6001,8251,7501,6801,6441,563 China
5504755565697411,010 European Union
333426 Brazil
101011 Ukraine
000000 Australia
00052103113 Belarus
000000 Japan
000000 Korea, South
000000 Mexico
000000 Others
7,2547,1137,2707,0898,1678,514 Total Foreign
403219345630 United States
7,2947,1457,2897,1238,2238,544 Total
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Production
13,11013,00013,08013,35013,70013,200 China
13,01313,11512,69212,30812,64512,863 Brazil
10,21510,30010,0959,9109,5659,320 European Union
3,9003,9003,7253,4503,1602,900 India
3,4003,4003,2503,0102,8302,575 Russia
3,0153,1502,9802,9072,9582,906 Mexico
2,1002,1602,0502,0602,0141,770 Argentina
1,9901,8001,9561,9241,7071,619 Turkey
1,6401,6401,5701,5001,5501,350 Thailand
1,6251,6251,5651,5501,5401,515 Indonesia
15,35915,54316,08615,66115,12614,634 Others
69,36769,63369,04967,63066,79564,652 Total Foreign
17,96117,75217,29916,97616,62116,694 United States
87,32887,38586,34884,60683,41681,346 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
12,89512,77512,91013,17413,54313,016 China
9,7759,8709,6679,4989,1989,010 European Union
9,3519,2939,1378,8299,1399,422 Brazil
3,8883,8883,7163,4453,1562,891 India
3,7663,8853,6933,5823,5683,474 Mexico
3,6803,7253,6583,5203,3563,013 Russia
2,2402,2152,2182,2092,2142,105 Japan
1,8261,7861,7731,7291,7231,556 Argentina
1,7551,7841,7271,7311,7261,653 South Africa
1,6251,6251,5651,5501,5401,515 Indonesia
19,76519,81220,57020,13319,26818,706 Others
70,56670,65870,63469,40068,43166,361 Total Foreign
14,97414,45414,03413,69113,34513,660 United States
85,54085,11284,66883,09181,77680,021 Total
Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oct
2015
Apr
none
Total Imports
895870888854877895 Japan
790790761838750745 Saudi Arabia
760740722682616578 Mexico
710670706671727734 European Union
710790722673610598 Iraq
385385369355371326 South Africa
340350367320301287 Angola
320245299272300410 Hong Kong
320340450540560463 Russia
220450318341198234 Venezuela
3,0802,9793,1883,0803,1822,908 Others
8,5308,6098,7908,6268,4928,178 Total Foreign
535353555149 United States
8,5838,6628,8438,6818,5438,227 Total
none
Total Exports
3,6653,8253,5583,4823,5083,443 Brazil
1,1501,1001,1341,0831,0941,044 European Union
570570546504538467 Thailand
430460430420411422 China
370420379337284206 Turkey
275375278334295224 Argentina
1701901671417542 Ukraine
145155137150141143 Canada
13013011310510574 Belarus
909087889390 Chile
339272347279244253 Others
7,3347,5877,1766,9236,7886,408 Total Foreign
3,0303,3413,3133,3323,3003,165 United States
10,36410,92810,48910,25510,0889,573 Total
Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Notes to Readers The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and broiler meat trade. Special note regarding October 2014 release:
Please be advised that due to a database error, the “Cattle Selected Countries Summary” table in October 2014 release had an incorrect value for the “Others” aggregate for 2014 and 2015. The table in this report displays the corrected October estimate. Exclusions Beginning in 2015: • Cattle: Colombia and Venezuela. • Beef: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d’Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. • Pork: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North
Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. • Broiler Meat: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova. • All turkey meat PSDs are discontinued as of 2015. A historical data series through 2014 is
still available on the FAS website at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline. Data Modifications Prior to 2013
Cattle/Beef: • The cattle PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2006-
2013 period on official production data revisions: Brazil, European Union, New Zealand, Russia, and United States.
• The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2006-2013 period on additional/revised official production data available: Angola, China, Costa Rica, European Union, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, South Africa, South Korea and Switzerland.
• The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2009-2013 period on additional/revised trade data available: Canada, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam.
Swine/Pork: • The swine PSD for Mexico is revised for 2010-2013 due to revised official production data. • The swine PSD for Russia is revised for 2012 due to revised official trade data. • The pork PSD for the following country is revised for particular years during the 2008-2102
period due to additional/revised official production data: New Zealand. • The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2012-
2013 period due to additional/revised official trade data: Kazakhstan and Russia.
Broiler Meat: • The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the
1999-2012 period on additional production data available: Angola, Congo (Kinshasa), Guatemala, Haiti, and Hong Kong.
• The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2000-2012 period on additional trade data available: Argentina, Iraq, Turkey, and Ukraine.
Assumptions • Diseases: Forecast reflects disease (avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalopathy,
etc.) policies and restrictions in place as of April 9, 2015 and assumes their continuation.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
Conversion Rates
Beef &Veal Pork Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30
HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201 Frozen: 0202 Processed: 021020 & 160250
Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249
Broiler Meat Turkey Meat Conversion Rate 1 1
HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13 Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14 Processed: 1602.32
Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35 Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36 Processed: 1602.31
Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded and carabeef (buffalo meat) is included.
Technical Notes
CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since January 2015 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx. PSD Online
The entire USDA PSD database is available online at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline. Additional Resources
Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meats for additional data and analysis.
Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/. Future Releases and Contact Information
Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in October 2015.
To receive the circular via email, go to: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new.
Questions may be directed to the following staff:
Lindsay Kuberka (202) 644-4650 [email protected] Cattle and Beef Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Swine and Pork Joanna Hitchner (202) 720-0746 [email protected] Poultry Meat
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA April 2015Office of Global Analysis
