Becca Nepple, Dr. Dermot Hayes - U.S. Pork Exports- Situation & Outlook
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Transcript of Becca Nepple, Dr. Dermot Hayes - U.S. Pork Exports- Situation & Outlook
Pork AcademyU.S. Pork Exports Situation and Outlook
Becca Nepple, VP International Marketing, National Pork BoardDermot Hayes, Professor, Iowa State University
Areas of Checkoff Investment
• Marketing and promotion• Market research• Market intelligence• New product development
• Marketing and promotion• Market research• Market intelligence• New product development
Current: 1st Quarter 2015
• Value: ↓14% • Volume: ↓10%
– But, March showed largest volume of exports in 11 months– March showed a 10% increase from February
• Value at $48.48/head• 25% of production
Addressing Compounding IssuesWhat’s Happened?•China access•Russia closure…EU/Canada nimble•Currency issues…many competitors have advantages•West coast port issues…still backlog, loss of chilled value
What’s Coming?•MCOOL retaliation?•Expect big increase in U.S. production
Top US Export Markets: Jan-Mar 2015
Mexico 396.0, ↑7%Japan 229.1, ↓13%China/HK 149.4, ↓40%Korea 126.5, ↑43%Canada 107.8, ↑2%C/S Am 65.9, ↓8%Oceania 28.1, ↓41%Carrib 22.4, 0%ASEAN 20.9, ↓57%
Japan $386.6, ↓19%Mexico $321.2, ↓6%Canada $192.4, 0%Korea $180.4, ↑55%China/HK $152.1, ↓42%C/S Am $80.1, ↓5%Oceania $45.2, ↓37%Carrib $25.4, 0%ASEAN $21.0, ↓61%
Volume (Million Pounds) Value (Million $)
Source: USDA statistics compiled by USMEF, compared to 2014
We Have a Goal!
By 2020, increase pork exports through access to new markets and expansion of existing
markets, and achieve an increase an average annual increase of 9% in value and quantity
(compared to 2014 year-end data)
By 2020, increase pork exports through access to new markets and expansion of existing
markets, and achieve an increase an average annual increase of 9% in value and quantity
(compared to 2014 year-end data)
Overview
• Big picture: where is the available land and what is the best way to move agricultural products?
• Obstacles to agricultural trade• Importance of trade agreements• Impact of trade on pork market in 2014 and 2015
So Why Do We See Grain Trains?
• Governments in Asia have traditionally protected their livestock and allowed for the free movement of grain
• They do this to encourage economic activity and to maintain a semblance of food security
• This means that free trade agreements result in additional meat exports
Colombia: An Example• Continued phase
out of duties• Solution to the
Trichinae barrier has provided better access for chilled product
• Sales hit $132 million in the past 12 months
• Is Peru next?
Exports, Year Ending March
Partner CountryUnited States Dollars % Change
2015/20142013 2014 2015
World 6,356,995,286 6,444,731,449 6,731,950,793 4.46Japan 1,944,093,980 1,890,979,158 1,849,003,999 - 2.22 Mexico 1,159,058,123 1,416,170,806 1,675,061,418 18.28 Canada 866,787,832 835,798,099 911,654,074 9.08 Korea, South 374,053,384 303,748,135 518,770,970 70.79 China 736,872,753 769,366,505 378,068,857 - 50.86 Hong Kong 188,501,768 228,669,018 358,607,555 56.82 Australia 207,187,710 190,118,271 165,547,314 - 12.92 Russia 243,184,757 118,195 137,911,189 ∞ Colombia 58,574,462 112,876,080 132,428,229 17.32 Philippines 104,946,515 117,085,601 96,459,289 - 17.62 Singapore 26,408,708 65,239,398 59,592,371 - 8.66 Dominican Republic 37,271,308 45,903,784 49,469,672 7.77 Chile 45,810,074 64,398,717 48,028,675 - 25.42 Honduras 47,131,329 49,748,353 46,258,745 - 7.01 Guatemala 27,318,824 30,114,923 43,942,261 45.92 Taiwan 39,813,863 38,647,545 39,217,511 1.47 Panama 22,232,779 27,105,125 28,682,419 5.82 New Zealand 28,086,688 24,599,989 18,322,778 - 25.52 Peru 5,798,896 15,502,271 16,164,809 4.27
Quantity of Exports
Partner Country UnitQuantity % Change
2015/20142013 2014 2015
World T 2,267,626 2,284,200 2,206,919 - 3.38Mexico T 613,996 703,089 745,420 6.02 Japan T 443,136 439,861 455,275 3.50 Canada T 238,577 217,691 209,210 - 3.90 China T 354,249 353,644 164,992 - 53.35 Korea, South T 135,231 107,180 155,644 45.22 Hong Kong T 78,719 86,556 138,429 59.93 Colombia T 21,757 44,037 46,578 5.77 Australia T 65,539 56,436 43,081 - 23.66 Philippines T 46,841 52,433 37,431 - 28.61 Russia T 85,095 33 36,257 ∞ Singapore T 8,885 26,062 21,167 - 18.78 Dominican Republic T 15,982 19,510 18,194 - 6.75 Chile T 17,768 25,506 17,994 - 29.45 Honduras T 20,023 21,417 17,534 - 18.13 Taiwan T 17,339 16,856 16,514 - 2.03 Guatemala T 11,981 11,397 13,970 22.57 Panama T 10,445 11,571 10,295 - 11.03 Peru T 2,665 6,912 6,612 - 4.34 Bahamas T 4,436 4,832 4,894 1.27 New Zealand T 9,599 8,097 4,842 - 40.20
Impact of Exports on Live Hog Prices
• Last spring we had access to China and Russia, and Japan, South Korea and Mexico had PED
• As a result, export growth was strong and prices were high
• Since then the EU and Canada lost a half million ton market in Russia, we lost access to Russia and have had problems in China
• China is particularly important because it buys so many variety meats
China Opportunity
• A 10,000 ton change in direct monthly exports of pork and pork variety meats to China causes a $5.50/cwt change in live hog values for that month. This 10,000 tons represents the exports sales lost due to this restriction
• Exports to China have fallen by 15,000 per month• Paradoxically, China needs more imported pork
because it has killed millions of sows
So, What Happens Next?
• 2014 pork production was only 2.5% lower than 2013 production, yet we had record prices; part of this was due to strong export demand
• USDA expects 8.9% more US pork production in the third quarter and 6.1% more pork in the fourth quarter, this is due to more sows, recovery from PED and lower cost of gain
• It would take a 10% growth in US pork consumption to clear this market unless exports grow…..very difficult unless we get an outbreak of bird flu in the south this fall
Three Possible Outcomes
• We solve the Ractopamine dilemma and get back into China, prices stay near those on the CME
• We enter into a price war with the EU and expand the volume, but not the value of exports
• US hog prices fall so much that weights fall and the surplus is eliminated