Beat the Micros in 2012

7/28/2019 Beat the Micros in 2012

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Beat the Micros in 2012

Congratulations on downloading this ebook and taking your first steps towards

beating the micro stakes in 2012! I cant promise to make you a millionaire, WSOP

bracelet winner, or the best poker player in the world. What I can show you is

how to reach your highest potential in the micro stakes, enjoy a deeper

understanding of poker, and make a $300 to $1,500 a month playing a game you

love. Heck, you might even find yourself like me paying for life expenses and going

to school on poker winnings at the micro stakes.

Are you new to poker and want to hold your own at the micro stakes,smalls stakes live, or your buddys home game?

Are you breaking even or slightly losing at the micro stakes and want tobecome a winning player?

Do you want to increase your bb/100 by making small adjustments? Do you want to build a bankroll quickly? Do you want to fairly consistently earn an extra $300-1,500 a month playing

a game you love?

Chances are you answered Yes! to one or more of these bullet points andchances are this ebook will help your game out and get you that much closer to

your poker goals! Now that we are on the same track, Im not going to waste your

time with fluff. Lets get into the meaty stuff :)

Poker Goals

If you are like me, you hate reading advice about mindset and goals becauseusually it is just rehashed fluff with very little content. Because poker is a mental

game (some even consider it a sport), I do feel that I need to briefly touch on the

goals aspect of poker since that is the foundation of everything we are going to be

talking about.


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One of the first things I ask my students is, What are your poker goals? I hear all

sorts of goals such as:

Make 20 buy-ins this month Quit my daytime job Win a big poker tournament Make enough money to move up in stakes I want to make a lot of money I want to watch more poker videos and study poker more

These are all very standard goals that many people (maybe even you) have. There

is one problem though: all of these goals suck. Im not saying that you shouldnt

strive for any of these things. Im saying these arent goals.

OK Nitreg, then what are goals? Glad you asked! :)

Goals are difficult, but obtainable milestones which are quantifiable and which

you can control directly.

I put every type of formatting I could find on the word quantifiable because I

cant stress how important it is. Quantifiable just means you can count it. Simply

put, you need to be able to track if you have reached your goal or not. Playing

tons of hands isnt quantifiable. Playing 35,000 hands is quantifiable. If you cancount it, it is quantifiable!

Equally as important is being able to control the outcome. This is usually where

students of mine go wrong with their poker goals. You have to be able to control

every aspect of your goal so if you succeed, you met your goal and if you fail, you

didnt live up to your goal. For example, you cant have the goal of making $1,000

in the month. You have no control over that! Sure, with the law of averages

carried out an infinite number of times you might be able to win $1,000+ a

month, but this is your short term goal where the law of averages isnt veryrelevant. You could be Phil Ivey and still have a losing month or two in a row.

Dont set up a goal outside of your control unless you like failing and not having

productive goals! Instead, focus on the things you can control. Some good

examples of quantifiable and controllable goals are:


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Play 25,000 hands of poker this month. Quit a session as soon as you lose 2 buy-ins in a row to reduce tilt. Watch a poker training video every day. Review 3 hands before starting every session.

What to Reasonably Expect Playing theMicros

Many of my students have dreams of playing poker for a living and quitting their

jobs. Thats a great thing that they are working for and I do my best to help them,

but it is important for micro stakes players to understand their role playing in the

micro stakes.

I will tell you straight up: at the micro stakes you probably arent going to be

making thousands of dollars and most good players wont even make enough to

pay living expenses for a nice lifestyle. The micro stakes is all about improving as a

player, moving up in limits, building your bankroll, and pocketing a few hundred

dollars every month.

So moral of the story is that you shouldnt go out and quit your job tomorrow.

Poker is a process and the micro stakes are the first step in that process. Take it

seriously and treat it as if the money means something and you will eventually get

to a point where the money will mean something to you whether you are making

$200,000 a year at mid stakes or whether you are like me and making enough for

rent, food, beer, and tuition at the local junior college.

The poker lifestyle you want is very obtainable. You just have to understand

where you want to go and what role the micro stakes play in getting you closer to

your dreams and goals. Work hard, stay honest with yourself, and never stop

learning and you will get there. With enough work and persistence, Im convinced

anyone can be a winner at the micro stakes, most people can win the small

stakes, and few people can win the mid stakes and higher. Most people in the

world can live a modest lifestyle off of $1,000-2,500 a month at the micro and

small stakes and Im sure most of you guys reading this ebook would appreciate


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an extra $300-$1,500 a month off the micro stakes. For some of you, that is

enough to pay your bills and for some of you, that is enough money to have some

luxuries in college, save up for a car, go out for a beer on the weekends with your

buddies, and take that special someone out for sushi here and there.

Fundamental Rules of the Micro Stakes

If you only remember one section from this entire book, remember this one! This

section is the 30,000 foot view of everything you have learned or will learn about

the micro stakes. When thinking about any aspect of any hand from here on out,

think about everything in terms of these two rules:

1. Value bet liberally and be hesitant to bluff2. Maximize wins and minimize losses

Value Bet Liberally...

At the micro stakes, you arent going to be out playing people like you see the

high stakes guys do on TV. Most people that log in to play online poker just load

up $50 or so on the weekend and open one or two tables of micro stakes games.

They arent there for a living. They are there to have fun and try to make bighands. We must realize this to figure out how to extract the maximum value from

these players.

The first common mistake of most micro stake players is that they play too many

hands. You will see people come in with any ace, low suited connectors out of

position, and even sometimes see people call with crazy hands such as J5o. This is

a win-win scenario for both parties. The fish and bad regs are there to see a lot of

hands because it is fun for them. We are here to make money so we need to

adjust to the fact that players passively play a wide range of hands. The best wayto do this is to stick in position and have a tight range (they dont call me nitreg

for nothing!). In essence, we want to be seeing lots of multiway small pots in

position with speculative hands (strong suited connectors, Axs, pocket pairs) or

we want the pot to be heads up with strong value type hands preferably in

position (big pocket pairs, two broadway cards, strong Axs hands). Expect to fold a


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LOT and expect to be playing a huge chunk of your hands in the cut-off and

button!

Post-flop is a very similar situation: we are against opponents with a wide range

who play passively (mostly check/call or check/fold). If our opponents never liketo fold, then our range for betting is usually going to be value hands (more on this

coming up). Think about all the times youve seen an opponent call rivers with K

high or bottom pair. If this is the player pool at the micros, make sure you select

quality hands pre-flop that flop well post-flop and get yourself some value!

And Be Hesitant To Bluff

When we are playing with opponents who call any piece of the flop or like to float

with overcards (especially in position), our game plan should NEVER be to bluffthese people. If you find yourself getting frustrated by whatever junk hand your

opponent calls and beats you with, you are probably bluffing too much. Since our

opponents are so passive and never fold, we will rarely be purely c-bet bluffing on

certain boards (especially multi-way), but will focus mostly on value betting made

hands or hands with tons of outs if called (such as flush draws, two overcards,

gutshots with second pair outs, etc.).

But wait! If we arent bluffing fish, what about c-betting? Isnt that a standard

part of playing poker against passive players? In short: yes. This will pretty muchbe the only time we will be purely bluffing. Lets say we raise in MP with QJs and

we are up against a passive fish on the button who folds to 37% of c-bets. On an

A92r flop you can guarantee Im betting there! I know this sounds a little

contradictory, especially tomy theory on when we should be betting, but there

are exceptions all the time in poker. Here we have a mathematical advantage

based on our bet-size, but we will get into that a bit more later :)

By the way, if you still havent clicked on my blog post link above, you dont know

what you are missing out on! If I had read that blog post when I was learningpoker I would have saved myself hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars over my

poker career. Believe me when I say that it is a simple concept to learn, but

difficult one to master. That is why repetition in reading this ebook, studying

poker, and reviewing hand histories are so vital to becoming a winning player.
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Maximize Wins And Minimize Losses

I wish I could have a dollar for every time I say this in a coaching session with

students. I think it stems from a misunderstanding of where money comes from in

poker. I think many people (me included for the longest time) think that sincethey are superior players, they are somehow destined to win all the time or at

least the vast majority of the hands they play. This is actually incorrect. To be

perfectly candid, you will lost a crap load more hands than you will win. It is just a

fact of life, but it isnt something to get down on.

Think about it: you are only playing somewhere between 12 and 16% of your

hands. Right away you are already losing 85% or so of the hands you play. Now if

you know proper stats, you will know that of those 15% or so hands you play, you

are only getting to showdown 25%. On top of that, of those hands youshowdown, it is proper poker to lose half of those ands. Basically, look at your

W$WSF (won money when saw flop) stat and that should give you an idea of how

many hands you are winning when you take your hand to a flop. For most people

it is slightly under half the time. So the next time you get AK and have to

check/fold the flop multi-way, dont get upset. Folding is by far your best ally in

making money.

So how do we win at poker if we arent trying to win every hand? I know this

seems really trivial, but seriously! Most people dont ever think about these sortsof things! We win at poker when we maximize our wins and minimize our losses.

In other words, for the hands we lose, optimal play would be to just fold and thus

lose $0. On the hands we do play, we want to maximize our value by betting the

most that we think our opponent will call with his worse range of hands. This

sounds super obvious, but Im willing to bet that you arent playing 100%

optimally.

When was the last time you flatted a pocket pair below 77 in the blinds to one

normal stacked raiser? If you do this the majority of the time, chances are youhave giant leaks and are losing a lot more money than you need to with -EV

hands. Dont believe me? Go into HEM1, HEM2, or PT3, set your filters to show

only hands where you flatted 55 in the blinds to one preflop raiser and no callers.

Practically everyone loses here over a large enough sample. Try out a few more


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low pocket pairs and see which pocket pair is the first pocket pair you can

profitably call with.

When was the last time you overbet the pot on river for value against a player?

Most people dont have this play in their arsenal, which isOK, but it isnt optimal.There are actually times where overbetting the pot is more profitable than

making a normal sized bet. Heck, even tiny bets (less than half pot) are very

optimal in TONS of spots! If you arent doing the little things with poker, you

probably arent playing 100% optimally. I dont want you guys to start spewing or

anything, but really approach your game with this mindset that you will extract

the most value from your opponent whatever that may take and dont give in to

playing losing hands in losing spots to minimize losses.

Hand Charts

Ive included hand charts along with this ebook to help you better construct your

own range at the micros. I want you guys to use these as a resource, but dont use

it religiously. If you are losing a lot of money (or are on a downswing), then by all

means, just spend a session or two playing these ranges and folding everything

else. It is a good foundation to work with as your standard range. What makes

poker so hard (if not impossible) to master is that we need to constantly bebending the rules to maximize wins and minimize profits. For example if a 9/2

opens UTG and everyone folds to me on the button, Im probably folding AQs on

the button without even thinking twice. If the same situation happens, but this

time my opponent is 92/63, then by all means you can expect me to be flatting

the button with all sorts of hands not on these charts.

I basically want you to imitate these hand charts and go through the practice of

playing a solid nitreg style. You shouldnt stick with the charts like they are

infallible, but use them as a guide as to around where your range should be. Ofcourse everyone is different so everyone will deviate from this chart differently. If

you want help knowing which hands are profitable to deviate with, feel free to

play around with your tracking software to see what ranges are profitable from

which positions and start only playing those hands.


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Iso Raise Or Call?

This spot comes up so often, Im dedicating an entire chapter to it. Practically

every time you are on the cutoff or button, you are thinking about coming intothe hand because positional advantage is so strong. If you are coming into a pot,

which one is better though?

Remember that iso-raising means that there is at least one limper behind us.

There are many factors to use in making our decision. The most obvious one is the

type of hand we have. Another huge factor is whether we are multi-way or likely

to be heads up. There are other relevant factors such as who is in the blinds, what

size we should make the raise, what the effective stack sizes are, whether there

an aggressive 3-better behind us, and many other variables.

In general we can sift through the majority of these factors by asking ourself one

question:

Is my hand speculative or is my hand a hand I want to get value with?

Speculative Hands

Speculative hands are hands like low pocket pairs, suited connectors, and suitedaces. They probably arent the strongest hand at the table, but thats OK! You win

a lot of money with speculative hands by seeing flops for a very cheap price,

mulitway, and preferably in position. The goal is to flop well and then start

building up the pot once you have made a huge hand.

Since our speculative hands miss the vast majority of the time, we should be

folding them out of position in heads up pots, we shouldnt be raising with them

unless we are in late position and have some fold equity, and we shouldnt be

putting in a huge chunk of our stack trying to see flops and turns.

For example, we arent going to be raising 33 under the gun in a full ring game

because our hand rarely hits the flop and playing multiway out of position sucks

with an underpair. The correct play would be to open fold.


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Another example is if a reg opens in MP and we have 56s. We would fold here

because we wont flop a huge hand often enough to make a call profitable and

calling down flops and turns in hopes of hitting a draw heads up usually isnt as

profitable as most people think.

One last example is if a short stack with 25bbs opens UTG and it folds around to

us on the button with 77. Our hand just isnt good enough to call here to set mine

so we should just fold it. The other alternative is 3bet/calling against the short

stack, but that is generally going to be a -EV play with people left to act and

against a tighter UTG range. If we had a slightly better hand or if we knew the

shortstack has a wide stack off range, I would be getting it in with a much higher

frequency.

Value Hands

Strong value hands are hands such as two broadway cards, big Ax hands, and big

pocket pairs. The goal with these hands is to usually see heads up flops in position

since our hand is strong, but still vulnerable. Since these hands are strong and

have a lot of equity when we are behind, we should be doing very little calling and

be doing a lot of raising.

In general, I like to mash the pot button in position when there are limpers.

Another strategy I highly recommend is to raise it up 4bbs + 1bb per limper. So ifthere were 3 limpers, I would make a raise of 7bbs (4bbs + 1bb * 3 limpers). When

out of position, I like making it pot + 1bb for being out of position (or make it 4bbs

+ 1bb per limper + 1bb for being out of position). The reason for making a bigger

raise out of position is because my range is exclusively very strong hands so I want

to get maximum value and thin out the field. When in position, my hand range is

much wider so I should make my bet sizing smaller in general so I dont get myself

in huge bloated pots with dominated hands or have to fold a lot of money to

3bets.

Post flop, we are generally looking to cbet in multiway pots with top pair or better

and very strong draws. We rarely want to be purely bluffing postflop multiway

against multiple fish because the more people in the pot, the more we arent

getting folds. Heads up, we can c-bet a lot more on dry boards and even some

semi-wet boards because we only have to get one fold to win the hand.


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The Only Poker Math You Need to Know

There are a lot of poker math books and resources online so I wont bore you with

all of the details. To be honest, Im not much of a poker math guy and if you are

like me, the math part will seem very intimidating if you try absorbing it all at

once. In this section, I want to give you basic principles, prove them with math,

and give you the building blocks you need to figure things out in the future.

3-Betting

Since most people in the micro-stakes (regs included) dont fold to 3-bets often,the vast majority of our 3-betting range should be value hands. This doesnt mean

we shouldnt bluff though. 3-bet bluffing and 3-bet squeezing are still very

profitable! Below are some charts showing how profitable 3-betting and

squeezing are.


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So what is the formula for figuring out if 3-bet bluffing is profitable?

Fold % = (How Much We Risk) / (How Much We Win + How Much We Risk)

As you will see for the rest of this session, this is a common formula for anytime

you are pure bluffing. When we are pure bluffing, we are trying to get our

opponent to fold his hand pre-flop and not see a flop. Because we want todiscourage our opponent from calling or raising, we should always try to be in

position when 3-betting as a bluff because it really sucks playing out of position

postflop and many opponents love flatting 3-bets in position to try out playing

you postflop if they are in position.

Also be conscious of what someones fold to 3-bet stat means. Just because

someone folds 75% of the time doesnt mean you should 3-bet them all the time.

We want to analyze how many hands their stats are over, what position they are

in, and what the table conditions are. If they are UTG, we probably dont want to3-bet bluff while we want to 3-bet bluff a guy all day who opens wide in late

position. Also, if a reg is isolating a fish, we definitely want to be 3-bet bluffing a

lot since the regs range is very wide. If someone is potting it out of position to a

someone who posted, then you can be pretty sure that the raiser is generally

going to have a big hand that probably doesnt want to fold anytime soon.


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Another thing we need to pay attention to is what hands we are bluffing with. You

want to 3-bet them with hands that have blockers and can pick up outs post flop.

For example 3-betting hands like AJo and K8s are great because they match these

descriptions. AJo blocks several big combinations of hands our opponent may

have (AA/JJ/AK/AQ) so we know our villains range is going to be slightly moreskewed towards weaker hands. K8s is great because the K blocks some Kx hands

our opponent may have, plus it can flop or turn the nut or second nut flush draw.

This is good because if we play postflop in position, we can c-bet all day with back

door equity because we get fold equity plus a chance at hitting huge disguised

hands.

You will also only want to raise about 3x their raise size in position because it

perfectly balances your range, while you will want to mash the pot button when

out of position since your range is going to be skewed more for value. Lets goover an example to demonstrate how much fold equity we need.

Lets say for the first hand we are on the button with A7dd. An UTG fish limps and

a reg in the cutoff goes ahead and raises to 4bbs. The reg folds to 3-bets 70%.

Flatting sucks here because we are dominated too often, so should we 3-bet bluff

here? Lets plug in some numbers for when we 3-bet to 12bbs here.


Fold% = 12bbs / (6.5bbs + 12bbs)

12bbs is our 3x raise size and 6.5 bbs is the sum of the blinds, the limper, and the

regs raise. Now lets simplify.

Fold% = .649

As you can see, the reg just needs to fold around 65% here for this 3-bet to be

profitable! The smaller our 3-bet size, the less our 3-bet has to work and thegreater our 3-bet size, the more it needs to work.

Blind Stealing


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Blind stealing is not as important at the micros as it is made out to be, but it is still

a big money maker. Blind stealing is most effective when we have tight players in

the blinds. Usually at the micro stakes, we arent going to be seeing two tight

players to our left, but we should still understand the concept because you should

still be blind stealing in a lot of scenarios. Below is a graph showing how profitableit is to steal frequently.

First of all, lets figure out the formula for stealing the blind. Luckily for us, it is the

same formuala for every time we are pure bluffing:


This is a pretty golden formula so it is best if you memorize it or keep notes on it

to refer back to it later. This formula finds out how many times our opponent

needs to fold for our steal to be breakeven. So for example, lets figure out how

much someone needs to fold for us to breakeven when we raise 3bbs on thebutton (assuming we never play post flop and just open fold).

F% = (3bbs) / ([1bb + .5bb] + 3bbs)

All I did here was just plug in the numbers. The amount we risk is obviously just

our raise size and the about we win is just the blinds. Now to simplify


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F% = 3 / 4.5

F% = .666666666667

This means that we need both blinds to fold 2/3rds of the time for us to break

even on the steal (neutral EV). Everything above that is pure profits!

I would strongly advize that you put a players Fold vs Steal on your HUD and if

you want extra brownie points, color it an eye grabbing color such as purple

(thats the color I use). There is just one mathematical problem: there are two

people in the blinds. No worries! To figure out their combined fold equity we just

multiply them together.

Total Fold % = Player 1 F% * Player 2 F%

So lets say that Player 1 folds to 80% of steals and Player 2 folds 72% of the time.

Here is the percentage they both fold to a steal:

TF% = .80 * .72

TF% = .576

So they will BOTH fold to a steal a total of around 58% of the time. Unfortunately,

we are against two nits who both fold 58% of the time while we break even at

67% when we steal the blinds with a 3x raise! What if we try making a min-steal

(2bb raise)? Recall our original formula:

F% = (2bbs) / ([1bb + .5bb] + 2bb)

F% = .57143

So when we min-raise, we only need both opponents to fold around 57% of the

time yet they both fold around 58% of the time. This means we dont even have

to play post flop and we automatically make a profit!


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The one cool thing about playing in position is that we dont only need to win by

straight up stealing. We make a ton of money by c-betting as a bluff and by c-

betting for value post flop in position! Because fish never like folding, we should

rarely be stealing as a bluff, but should have a solid value range. Because we only

have value hands with fish in the pot, we should be opening the pot 3 to 4bbspreflop as a steal. If there are nits in the blinds, a lot of the time it is profitable to

just min-raise with any two cards so long as you dont find yourself getting out of

line postflop. Adjusting your bet sizing based on your villains is a key to

maximizing wins and minimizing losses! It is completely exploitable by your

opponents, but the thing is they are only paying attention to their hands so 90%

of them will never notice and the other 10% most likely wont know how to adjust

properly!

Below is a quick chart of bet sizes and how often both opponents need to fold forit to be profitable:

2bb = 57%

2.5bbs = 63%

3bbs = 67%

3.5bbs = 70%

4bbs = 73%

4.5bbs = 75%

Continuation Betting

Continuation betting is another one of those golden concepts that will make you

an insane amount of profits over the long run. It may not look like it, but all those

small pots really add up and will be a massive chunk of your winnings! Since c-

betting is done postflop, the pots are generally bigger than just preflop bluffs.

On top of that, you dont have to bet nearly as much relative to the pot size as

you do preflop on a steal attempt. The graph below shows winnings from just c-

betting and it should be obvious how profitable it is to c-bet.


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The formula for c-betting is fairly easy and is very similar to blind stealing.


Just like the blind stealing formula, we are trying to figure out the fold equity

needed in order for our play to be breakeven or better if we are pure bluffing.

Lets say for instance we cbet half pot (how about $0.75 into a $1.50 pot) on a dry

board such as K73r. How much fold equity would we need if we are just pure

bluffing?

Fold% = (.75) / (1.5 + .75)

Fold% = .333333333

So when we c-bet half pot, we only need to take it down 1/3rd of the time tobreak even. If our opponent folds just 34%, we are instantly making a profit! You

can see how powerful this and why being in position is so powerful. We can c-bet

relentlessly and make a profit even when our opponents dont fold most of the

time. We do need to be careful though. Not all flop textures are created equal.

You cant just c-bet the flop pot every time and expect to win. We will go over

that more in the next session.


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Here are some common bet sizing amounts and some bet sizes that arent so

common. I hope you can see the amount they need to fold for you to break even

and start implementing some of these different sizes in different situations to

maximize your wins and minimize your losseswhen called (yes, theres that themeagain).

10% Pot = They need to fold > 9% of the time






120% Pot = They need to fold > 55% of the time :)

As you can see some of these numbers are a bit counter intuitive. Lets say you

missed a 6 high flush draw, but something tells you your opponent had a draw

that missed as well. Why not bet 10% pot to fold out his air? He only has to fold

10% of the time to be profitable. What if your opponent looks like he has a

marginal hand on the river. Why not bet $6 into a $5 pot and watch him fold top

pair weak kicker and middle pairs? It only has to work a little over half of the time

to be profitable!

If you remember a few paragraphs ago, we can also calculate how much fold

equity we have when we are against multiple opponents! Lets say we are the

pre-flop raiser in position on two opponents who both have a fold to c-bet of

60%. They check around to us on the same K73r flop. Is a pot c-bet profitable

here in a vacuum? Lets remember the formula:

Combined Fold % = (Player 1 Fold %) * (Player 2 Fold %)

Combined Fold % = .6 * .6

Combined Fold % = .36


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With a half pot c-bet, we just need them both to fold 33%. Here they are folding

36% of the time. It is instantly profitable!

The problem with c-betting math is that our opponent will not fold every time.

Because of this, we actually have more equity to win the pot (if we have outs) andwe also have more chances to barrel as a bluff if we miss as well. Again, this is

another aspect of why being in position is so profitable. You will always be in

control of how your money goes into the pot and what price your opponent gets

and there is nothing he or she can do about it. Lets consider another similar

formula:

EV = Fold Equity + Pot Equity

EV = (Villains Fold % * Pot) - (Villains non-Fold % * Bet size)

Figuring out our expected value (EV) is a little simpler with this equation because

it can be expanded (hold on to that concept for one second). Fold equity in this

equation is just Villains Fold to C-bet % times the size of the pot. Since Im

assuming we just lose every hand our villains doesnt fold, our pot equity will

always be a negative number that is our bet size times the percentage of the time

villain doesnt fold the flop. Lets look at an example for a villain that folds 55%

and we c-bet $1 into a $1.50 pot:

EV = (.55 * 1.5) - (.45 * 1)

EV = (.825) - (.45)

EV = $.38

So this is a standard pot size at $25NL and in this spot, we make 1.5bbs or $.38

every time we make this play! If we are crushing the games for 8bb/100, that

means we make $.02 per hand. In this one simple hand alone, we are making 19xthat!

Now lets expand this formula to include our equity when called. Lets say that we

are c-betting A2ss in position heads up on a K73ss board. Our villain has a fold to

c-bet of 40%. Here is the modified formula we will need:


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Again this is pretty simplistic because we are only accounting for when we bet

once and dont put any money in again and it doesnt account for other thingssuch as our opponent check/raising. This should give you an idea of what is going

on, but in the future, treat this equation as a function for each street and keep

plugging in the values to figure out if it is +EV or not.

Lets define some terms first:

Expected Value: This is just how much money we look to win or lose in a given

situation.

Fold Equity: This is the easier part that we went over above. It is how much we

win multiplied by villains fold to c-bet percentage.

Fold Equity = Pot Size * Villains fold to c-bet %

Pot Equity: This is the complex part of the equation that relies on subtracting two

parts then multiplying it by the times our opponent doesnt fold to our c-bet. The

first part is when we c-bet, get called, and improve to the best hand.

Part 1 = (Pot + Villains Call) * Our Hands equity

The second part that we subtract from the first part is the times we c-bet, get

called, and dont improve our hand.

Part 2 = Our C-bet * Our Villains Hand Equity

Once we have our two parts, we need to go ahead and do one more step:

Pot Equity = Villains non-Fold to C-bet % * (Part 1 - Part 2)

Phew! We are almost done. I never said it was going to be easy ;)


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Lets look at an example that will make things a lot clearer. In our hypothetical

example, we are playing in position in a heads up pot at $10NL ($.05/.10 blinds).

Villain limps and we isolate to $.45 with K9hh (pot is now $1.05). The flop comes

out A22hh (we have the nut flush draw). Lets also hypothetically say our villain

will only call this flop with A2s, 22, and any Ax hand (he is folding flush draws inthis example because that would make the example really long and confusing).

We c-bet $.60 into a pot of $1.05. Our villain folds to c-bets 40% of the time.

What is our expected value?


First of all, lets figure out our fold equity:

Fold Equity = Pot Size * Villains fold to c-bet %

Fold Equity = $1.05 * .40

Fold Equity = $.42

Now lets figure out our pot equity. We will start with part 1:

Part 1 = (Pot + Villains Call) * Our Hands equity

Part 1 = ($1.05 + .6) * .308

You will need the free programPoker Stovefor this problem or someother type

of similar online app. Once you have Poker Stove opened, enter in the villains

range as shown below.
http://pokerstove.com/site/pokerstove/http://pokerstove.com/site/pokerstove/http://pokerstove.com/site/pokerstove/https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=https://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&tok=9PKyZfINre-Q8TAHqN8woA&pq=poker%20stove%20download&cp=11&gs_id=ct&xhr=t&q=poker+odds+calculator&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&safe=off&oq=poker+odds+&aq=0&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=a9a52fe3d316f70c&biw=1626&bih=http://pokerstove.com/site/pokerstove/http://pokerstove.com/site/pokerstove/http://pokerstove.com/site/pokerstove/


21/43

Note that our Ax suited range we are making sure that for each hand, just the

suited to spades is clicked in the bottom right. If you have any other suits also

selected, it will mess up your equity calculation.

Now go ahead and calculate your hands equity by pressing evaluate. This willgive you the numbers you need!


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Now simplify Part 1:

Part 1 = ($1.05 + .6) * .308


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Part 1 = $.51

Lets wrap up with Part 2 of pot equity:

Part 2 = Our C-bet * Our Villains Hand Equity

Part 2 = .6 * .692

Part 2 = $.42

Now we just subtract Part 2 from Part 1 and multiply it by the percentage our

villain doesnt fold to c-bet.

PotEquity = Villains non-Fold to C-bet % * (Part 1 - Part 2)

Pot Equity = .60 * ($.51 - .42)

Pot Equity = $.05

Finally we can figure out our Expected Value (EV):


EV = $.42 + $.05

EV = $.47

We are making close to 5 big blinds in just one standard c-bet spot over the long

run! This is HUGE and really adds up!

Man, that was long! Do we really have to do that equity calculation for EVERYHAND?!?!? No! Please dont unless you like pain and torture. Do this every

session or two for hands that you think might be close and you will start picking

up patterns which will better prepare you for your next session. Most of your

poker winnings are going to be figured out off the table. On the table, you are just


24/43

implementing your winning strategy and focusing on not deviating from that

strategy (tilt).

The Factors of Continuation Betting

There are so many factors you want to pay attention to when c-betting. Here are

a few I thought of (but Im sure there are even more smaller nuances if we dove

in further):

1. Position2. Board texture3.

Number of opponents in the pot

4. Villain type5. Our own hand

This is pretty much the order I think about things when deciding to c-bet in my

own games. Ill walk you through some of the thought processes and how to

adjust our strategy based on each one. Remember, this is partly a science and

partly an art. You cant do equity calculations and know villains exact ranges on

EVERY single hand. That is where your experience and intuition come in. You will

never be exact or perfect, so dont sweat it. Just try and be as accurate as you can.

Remember EV = fold equity + pot equity. So long as you make EV a positive value,

it doesnt really matter how you arrange fold equity and pot equity. Where one is

lacking, the other needs to make up for it. Best case scenario is when you are

cranking out value in both parts of the equation.

Position

I keep repeating it but it is true: position is key in poker. You will be the onedictating the action and you will be the one who gets to see everyone elses

actions before you will make your own. This will go a long way in helping you

maximizing your wins and minimizing your losses.

When in position, your bluffs will work a lot more frequently because your

opponent is at such a disadvantage. He will have to check/call flop, check turn


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hoping you check, then stab at blank rivers to reverse float you. That is such a

spewy play and you wont be seeing a lot of people do that skillfully at the micro

stakes. When your opponent is in position, he can peel with all sorts of stuff, then

when you check the turn, he will go, Oh hey, this guy doesnt have anything. I

should bet now. Fish and regs will float you all day whether they know what theyare doing or not so your life will be hell out of position unless you have the nuts.

In position, you also have more options to check back some draws if you choose

to or you can check back a weak top pair hand to induce bluffs. You basically have

more creativity when you are in position as you are dictating the action as

opposed to letting your opponent be the last one to act.

Board Texture

Board textures are a super complex topic and will involve lots of combinatorics

(next section) and EV calc (last section) review to really get a grasp of which

boards are good and which boards are bad to c-bet. What I like looking for are

boards that dont hit my villains range very well if Im bluffing, or I bet close to

100% when I have strong draws or value hands.

For example, when I min-raise the button and a reg flats in the big blind, I will be

cbetting a 367tt (two toned) flop because even though it is a wet and

coordinated flop, it smashes a lot of the hands in my range and doesnt reallysmash that many hands in my opponents range (his range will be mostly big

cards).

Another bluff example is if I raise in middle position and get a caller on the button

with a wide range. Im 100% c-betting an A95r (rainbow) flop as a bluff because

Im folding out the vast majority of my opponents range that isnt an Ax hand, set,

or some 9x hands.

A board Im not c-betting is a board like J98tt with A5o because this hits a lot ofthe hands villains like to call with and I dont have much room for improvement

when called (remember EV = fold equity + pot equity. I have very little of both).


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These are just some obvious examples to give you an idea. It really will take some

work on your part to formulate a better understanding by using combinatorics

and EV calculations.

Number of Opponents in the Pot

Simply put, the more opponents in the pot, the less Im c-betting. Remember to

find the formula for fold equity, we just multiply the fold to c-bet percentage of all

of our opponents:

Fold % = Player 1 Fold % * Player 2 Fold %...

If you play around with the numbers, you are going to realize that your fold equity

gets destroyed pretty fast the more people are in the pot. If there are one or twopeople in the pot, Im c-betting dry (non-coordinated) flops all the time and

checking a lot of wet (coordinated) flops. In multi-way flops, Im basically only

betting for value or if I have tons of equity (such as a straight flush draw or nut

flush draw plus over cards).

Villain Type

We need to be constantly thinking about how we can exploit our opponents.

Whatever they do, we need to do the opposite.

If our opponents call too much to c-bets, we need to drop most of our bluffs and

value bet wider. If our opponents fold too much to c-bets, we need to bluff a

whole lot more and we need to pot control some of our more marginal value

hands.

Our Hand

Obviously our hand is a pretty big deal as well. The fact is we arent going to flopthat often, especially when we have a wide range in position. Because of this, we

are mostly focusing on bluffing and semi-bluffing. That has been covered pretty

extensively over the last few sections. When we have a hand though, we need to

think about value!


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At the micro stakes, value is easy. Our opponents are either calling or they arent.

Bet size has very little to no influence on what their action is. Because of this, we

can do things such as bet 1/3rd pot or we can overbet pot based on what we are

trying to do. Most of this comes down to hand reading then trying to get our

opponents to react in the most -EV way relative to what our actual hand is.

Combinatorics

This is a huge section for when you are doing your poker homework. It is close to

equal in importance with the concept of EV = fold equity + pot equity.

Combinatorics is simply counting the number and type of hands an opponent may

have.

Most micro stakes players think of their opponents hands as a single hand. When

is the last time you heard some fish at a table proclaim, I put you on Ace King!

That one always makes me laugh :)

In reality, we cant see the opponents cards, so it is actually detrimental to think

of their hand as an exact hand (such as AK). What we need to do is think about it

mathematically. Think about your opponents hand as a range. A range is just a

possible set of hands that an opponent may have. So if a TAG opens UTG, Im notsaying in my head, I put him on KK. In my head Im looking up his UTG PFR

(under the gun, pre-flop raise) stats to figure out he raises 6% or a hand range

closely resembling 77+ and AQ+.

This is where Poker Stove comes in handy again, but be careful, because Poker

Stove only touches the tip of the iceberg. Lets say we want to 3-bet because we

know that our opponent only folds non paired hands pre-flop, calls pocket pairs

lower than KK and 4-bets AA and KK. Well looking at this we would say there are 2

hands he folds (AK and AQ), 6 hands he calls (77-QQ), and 2 hands he 4-bets (AAand KK). So that is a combination of 10 hands, 2 of which he folds, right? Wrong!

This is where combinatorics comes in. To find out the combinations of a specific

hand, you must multiply the possibilities of having the first card by the

possibilities of having the second card. If the hands are inclusive (such as pocket


28/43

pairs), you need to multiply them together then divide by 2 because you hold 2

cards.

So as a quick pre-flop cheat sheet:

Holding any pocket pair = 6 combinations Holding any non-paired hand = 16 combinations Holding any suited non-paired hand = 4 combinations Holding any one specific hand = 1 combination (obviously!)

Lets take this 3-bet situation against this TAG UTG raiser as an example. How

many combinations of AK (any suit) does he have?

4 Combos of Aces * 4 Combos of Kings = 16 Combos

How many combinations of JJ does this TAG player have?

(4 Combos of Jacks * 3 Combos left of Jacks) / 2 Cards Held = 6 Combos

How many combos of suited cards does he have? This is a trick question because

he can have two possible hands: AKs and AQs. We need to find the combos for

each and add them together.

(4 Combos of Aces * 1 Combos of Kings) + (4 Combos of Aces * 1 Combos of

Queens) = 8 Combos

Suited cards may seem kind of confusing at first, but they really arent. Lets take

AKs for example. It really doesnt matter which Ace we start with (so we have 4

options to chose from). Once we pick an Ace, we need to find the King with the

corresponding suit (which is just one card). This makes our options 4 * 1 = 8

combos. If I wrote it out, we could have AK of spades, AK of clubs, AK of hearts,

and AK of diamonds.

So now lets revisit the original problem where we 3-bet the TAG UTG raiser and

figure out what he is going to do with combinatorics. First, lets classify which

hands he is doing what with:


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Folds AK/AQ Calls 77-QQ Raises AA/KK

Now lets figure out the combos for each one:

AK/AQ = 16 Combos * 2 hands = 32 Combos of Folds 77-QQ = 6 Combos * 6 hands = 36 Combos of Calls AA/KK = 6 Combos * 2 hands = 12 Combos of Raises

Now we add them all up to get a grand total range of 80 hands he is playing! This

is why it makes me laugh when a fish claims they put someone on one single hand

in arbitrary spots because even against a really tight range like this one, there are

80 total hands in our villains range!

So here, we get our villain to fold 40% of his hands (32 folding hands / 80 total

hands). When we first started this problem without knowing combinatorics, it

appeared as if there were just 2 out of 10 hands he folds (20%). Now that we

know combinatorics, we know that he actually folds 40%! That still isnt a lot of

hands he folds, so we should probably not 3-bet bluff this guy.

Lets look at one more problem. Lets say a tight 15bb short stacker min-raises in

middle position and we call on the button with AJdd. The flop comes 8h3d2c andthere is 5bbs in the pot and our villain has 13bbs left. We both check. The turn

comes an Ace of hearts bringing about a backdoor heart flush draw. Our

opponent bets 3bbs leaving him with 10bbs left and the pot of 11bbs when we

call. The river is another 2 of spades and he shoves his remaining 10bbs into an

11bb pot.

Lets first of all figure out our odds. We have to call off 10bbs to win 21bbs which

gives us 2.1:1 odds. This means we just have to win around 33% of the time to be

profitable.

Now lets figure out his range (we should have already done this earlier in the

hand, but for the sake of having a contrived example hand, play with me). Lets

say he raises preflop with any broadway, pocket pair, and Ax suited hand. By the


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river, he is only jamming all in with quads/full houses, Ax hands,and missed flush

draws.

Lets figure this out step by step:

Quads/Full houses = 22, 33, 88, AA Ax hands = A2s-A9s, AT, AJ, AQ, AK Missed flush draws = KQhh, KJhh, KThh, QJhh, QThh, JThh

Notice that i separated out the Ax hands because I only beat AT and lower, tie

with AJ, and lose to AQ+. Now we have to figure out the combinations for each:

22, 33, 88, AA = (3 combos * 2 hands) + (2 combos * 1 hand) = 8 Combos ofhands that beat us

Notice how 22, 33, and 88 each have 3 combos. That is because there is one 2, 3,

and 8 card already on the board. That means that 3 first card selections * 2

second card selections divided by 2 is 3 combinations. There are already 2 Ace

outs taken as well (one on board and one in our hand). That means that there are

2 first card combos * 1 second card combo divided by 2 for just one combination.

You would also be able to figure it out just by thinking about it as well. If we have

the Ace of diamonds and the Ace of hearts is on the board, that only leaves the

Ace of spades and the Ace of clubs. The same thing applies for the 2s. There isonly one combination of pocket 2s our opponent can have.

A4-A7s, A9s, A2s, A3s, A8s = (2 combos * 7 hands) = 14 Combos of handswe beat

Remember that we have the Ace of diamonds and the Ace of hearts is on the

board. This only leaves 2 combinations of Aces left. For example there is the A3 of

clubs, A3 of spades, A4 of clubs, A4 of spades, and so on all the way to A9 of clubs

and A9 of spades. Since we know they have to be suited cards and we know theAd and Ah is taken, we know that no Axdd or Axhh can be counted as combos.

None of the A2 hands can be used since all of their suits are blocked by cards on

the board or in our hand. Also, the 3d and 8h blocks A3dd and A8hh respectively.

AT = 8 combos * 1 hand = 8 Combos of hands we beat


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Since there are only 2 Aces to start with as our first card, and there are still 4 Tens

left in the deck, we do 2 * 4 to get 8 combos of AT of any suit left.

AJ = 6 combos * 1 hand = 6 Combos we tieWe have two Aces blocked and one Jack in our hand making our math fairly

simple (2 Ace combos * 3 Jack combos = 6 total combos).

AQ/AK = 8 combos * 2 hands = 16 Combos we lose toAgain, two combos of Ax are blocked, but all 4 Queens and all 4 Kings havent

been blocked. That leaves 2 Ace combos * 4 Kicker combos = 8 combos for each

hand.

KQhh, KJhh, KThh, QJhh, QThh, JThh = 6 Combos we beatI know your brain hurts so this one is easy. Just count the actual hands since they

are already defined by suit.

Now, lets add up the totals that we beat, the totals we tie, and the totals that

beat us:

We Beat: 6 + 8 + 14 = 28 Combos

Beat Us: 16 + 8 = 24 Combos

Tie: 6 Combos

TOTAL HANDS = 58 HANDS

Now we take the 28 hands we beat and divide it by 58 total hands he can have. By

doing that, we figure out that we beat 48% of his hands. If you recall, we only

needed to beat 33% of hands so we are way good to call here!

I know that takes a hell of a long time to calculate for such a trivial looking hand,

but I promise you this is the thing that figuratively separates the men from the

boys. You dont have to do this with every hand, just find one hand like this every

session or two and do either an equity calculation or do combinatorics on it. That

way you will have tons of situations where youve figured out all the math before


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hand so when you get to the spot at the tables you are prepared. Most people I

coach really take their time in a lot of situations that seem standard for me. That

is because most micro stakes players dont do this sort of homework off the

tables. You too can have that edge if you just put the work in! The added benefit

is that you can play and think a lot faster because you have done a lot of the hardthinking off the table. If you ever wanted to jump up to 8+ tables, continued

practice and homework off the tables could be the missing ingredient you need!

Exploitation

Poker is a game of exploitation. You dont even have to be good at poker to win.

All you have to do is be better at exploiting just one other person at the table.Most people just sit down to play the cards they are dealt. While that is a part of

poker, the main thing you want to do is constantly be finding ways to exploit your

opponents. Our primary way of systematically exploiting our opponents is

analyzing our opponents with our HUD and notes, then create and implement a

strategy to take advantage of them. If you arent doing all of the things listed

above, you probably arent capable of winning past $10NL or $25NL.

Analyzing Our Opponents

When asking some students how they view the players at the table, I hear a lot of

things like they are bad, fish, or good. Then Ill ask what my students

gameplan is to exploit these villains and Ill usually get something generic like

play balanced, mix things up, or play tighter. I think this is one of the biggest

misconceptions in all of poker (especially the balanced part). Most people just

say these things and have no idea what they really mean.

First of all, saying things like someone is a fish or they are bad isnt specific

enough. If Im looking to exploit someone, I need to know exactly what trait isbad, why it is bad, and what can I specifically do to exploit that trait.

Generally the best way to exploit the villains bad tendencies is to do the complete

opposite of whatever they are doing. So if someone is playing really loose, Im

going to play tighter because I want stronger hands to be able to call down with

their aggression. If someone is playing too tight, I want to ramp up my aggression


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so I can really push them off pots and get them to finally crack and stick all their

money in on tilt when I actually have a hand.

Since we are constantly adjusting to the opposite traits of our opponents bad

traits, having a balanced game plan makes no sense. Lets think about it insimpler terms by playing some rock, paper, scissors (RPC).

Rock > Scissors

Scissors > Paper

Paper > Rock

As we can see here, a balanced approach for us would be to run a random

number generator between 1 and 3. We would then throw out either rock, paper,

or scissors depending on whichever one corresponds to that number. This meansthat we would play Rock 33.33% of the time, Paper 33.33% of the time, and

Scissors 33.33% of the time. Because we are balanced, we are unexploitable and

no matter what our villain chooses, his equity will always be 50:50 against us.

This is a great strategy if our opponent is some mental ninja who has mastered

rock, paper, scissors and is destroying us. The thing with poker is everyone sucks

at the micro stakes. Even the winning regs are pretty bad relative to the mid-

stakes and high-stakes guys. You will not meet players at the micro limits (or

99.99% of live games) where you will ever need to play a balanced strategy. Ifyou ever find yourself in a high stakes game with one fish and Phil Ivey, then you

want to exploit the fish and play balanced against Phil Ivey. If the fish werent

there and you played a perfect balanced strategy, you will eventually get

destroyed by the rake.

When our opponents are just clicking buttons while drunk on the weekends, they

usually havent even thought about strategy. Their thought process is usually just

one the first level of I have a draw, I call. I have the nuts, I will check/call down

then check/min-raise the river (to learn more about thedifferent levels of pokerclick here). Because our villain almost always plays the same way in every similar

situation, they are playing an unbalanced and exploitable strategy. What is the

best way to exploit this person? The answer is to play an exploitable strategy

ourselves and go to the other extreme to maximize our wins and minimize our

losses. Lets look at this from an RPC standpoint:
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Our opponent always throws out Rock. We should throw out Paper100% of the

time. Sure, he could throw out Scissors 100% of the time and destroy us, but he

wont because he is just clicking buttons and thinking about his own strategy. If

we ever trying playing balanced here, for every rock we throw out, we break evenand give up our opportunity cost of whatever we wagered. If we ever try throwing

down Scissors, we will not only lose our money, but we will also give up any

opportunity costs we had of exploiting our opponent.

Lets say our opponent wises up because he has lost with Rock for the last 10

throws. He now starts throwing out Scissors 100% of the time because he is trying

to overcompensate for our strategy. It will work initially, but after 2 or 3 throws,

we will see what he is doing and then start throwing 100% Rock. Most villains at

the micros will never make that initial adjustment and just throw Rock forever.The few that do make the adjustment will start overcompensating by playing

Scissors every time against you and never adjusting from that initial adjustment. If

you ever go to mid-stakes or higher, you will have to get into this mode where

you are constantly adjusting your strategy and trying to stay one move ahead of

your opponent. Good thing we dont have to worry about that at the micros :)

Use a HUD and Take Notes

If you havent already, grab a copy of HEM2. HEM2 and similar hand trackingpieces of software are an invaluable tool for any online poker player. It will tell

you all sorts of statistical information about your opponent and allows you to take

notes on them within the program so you can review hands and notes at a later

time.

There are several main stats that I have on my HUD that help me identify gaping

holes in my opponents game. They are

VPiP (Voluntarily Put $ in Pot PFR (Pre-Flop Raise) Steal % Fold to Steal % Cbet % Fold to Cbet % (for flop and turn)


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3-bet % Fold to 3-bet %

I combine all of these stats in my head to formulate the best strategy against each

player.

For example, if someone has tight stats and folds to steals a lot, I will abuse them

by stealing while in position (we talked about the math earlier). If someone folds

to 3-bets too much, I will 3-bet them relentlessly in position. If someone has a

wide range and c-bets too much, I will adjust by calling down with marginal

hands, semi-bluff raise a lot of flops, or float them a lot in position depending on

their other stats such as fold flop to raise and turn c-bet %. There is a lot of math

behind all of these plays which you now know how to do, but a lot of the feel

for when to do these things is a skill that is learned over hundreds of thousands ofhands. If you followmy blogorwatch me stream live, all I do is constantly explain

my thought process on how to exploit players based on these stats. Check it out if

you havent already! Its 100% free!

Notes are mostly important at defining ranges and documenting bet patterns.

Lets say we notice a player flats in position to trap with AA/KK, yet they only have

a 2% 3-bet%. Just by looking at stats, we would assume their range is KK+ and AK,

but since we have notes we know better. Maybe they only 3-bet bluff or maybe

they only 3-bet hands like QQ/JJ and AQ. People are slightly different, so payattention to what they showdown with and note it!

Bet patterns are important to note as well. Remember the whole rock, paper,

scissors thing? This is where it really comes in. Lets say we know that a player will

only bet two streets with top pair good kicker and pot control river. This is

definitely an interesting line and should be noted. Now when we are in a hand

and they triple barrel us, we will know they either have the nuts, or they have a

bluff such as a missed draw. If we do combinatorics, we can discover how bluff

heavy their hand is since we know they simply wont ever have a good top pairhand. Little notes like that go a long way towards helping you exploit your

opponent by maximizing your wins against them and minimizing losses when you

know they are strong.
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Im Ready to Start Playing!

Great! I know I havent told you exactly how to play, but I have given you the

strategies and tools so you can teach yourself how. Think of this course likeMorpheus from the Matrix. It can show you the door, but you are the one who

has to walk through it. Get in the hands, do your homework off the tables, and

start crushing!

Before you get started, I want to show you better ways to maximize your poker

experience and minimize any frustrations. You will need rakeback, know which

site to play on, and know where to go to continue getting better.

Deposit Bonus and Rakeback

Before you even sit down at any poker table, you need to be thinking about

maximizing any winnings you have plus minimizing any losses. Obviously with

poker you can swing all over the place. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Many sites offer bonuses and rakeback to encourage players to play on their site.

With all this extra money coming in, all you need to do is play and you will win

something! There are even people whose whole income relies on breaking evenat poker and banking thousands every year on bonuses and rakeback. What does

all this extra money mean for you?

For every hand you play, money is taken off the tables by the casino so they can

fund their operation. A way for casinos to attract new players is to offer

something called rakeback which essentially gives you a percentage of the

casinos cut for every hand you play. Not only do you get money exploiting fish,

but you also get paid by the casino for every hand you play! Rakeback differs from

site to site so make sure you figure out which program works best for you. Since Iplay online poker to support my lifestyle, I have thoroughly investigated all of the

major sites and have found the best rakeback offers on the internet!

PokerStars

If you are outside the United States, the hands down best choice for online poker

isPokerStars. PokerStars is my favorite site because their software is the most
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professional, they have the largest player pool, the biggest and best tournaments,

fast customer support, and fast payment processing for deposits and withdraws!

PokerStars doesnt have actual rakeback, but they do have cash bonuses which

is effectively rakeback. Instead of getting weekly rakeback deposits into your

account, you get points. Once you get a certain number of points at your playerlevel, you can cash them in for money! Obviously the more you play, the more

points you get and the more money you can cash in on.

The best part about the PokerStars software is that they introduced a new format

called Zoom Poker. If any of you played Rush Poker on the old Full Tilt site, you

will know the concept. Basically whenever you fold a hand, you immediately

move to another table and another hand. This way you can get in literally

hundreds of hands per hour per table. When I started playing on PokerStars,

there were $100NL regs who were grinding 24 tables for 8 hours a day to earn$160,000+ of bonuses for the year. With Zoom Poker, you can play just 4 tables

and have the same number of hands per hour as someone playing 24 tables. This

means that you earn bonus cash faster and your VIP level goes up REALLY fast! If

Zoom Poker is not your style, no worries, there is still a lot of money to be made

at the regular tables and tournament tables. There are literally hundreds of

thousands of people playing poker at once so whatever floats your boat will be

there!

If you havent already,click here to grab the PokerStars softwarewhere youraccount will be activated to receive the cash bonuses. On top of that, you will

receive a 100% deposit bonus up to $600. I highly recommend getting as much of

that money as possible as they are literally handing you free money!

Black Chip Poker (Merge Network)

After Black Friday, Americans had no place to play poker online. Since April of

2011, the Merge network has really stepped up as one of the best overall sites for

American players. On top of that,Black Chip Pokerstepped up to become the bestskin on the Merge Network. I now play almost entirely on Black Chip Poker as

they are my favorite site facing the US. I really like their new software, they have

good support, fast payouts for Americans, a 150% deposit bonus up to $750, and

35% rakeback. Also, they constantly run promotions for even more money! Right

now, they have a $100,000 rake race where the more rake you generate, the
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higher up the rankings you go. The top 400 players on the site for the week each

share in the $25,000 weekly prize. You can find more details about therake race

hereand if you want to get thehighest possible rakeback, go hereand enter in

the code BCP750 for the 150% deposit bonus!

Lock Poker (Revolution Network)

The newest of US facing poker sites isLock Pokeron the Revolution Network.

They were previously the major skin on Merge, but they ended up breaking off

and taking over the old Cake Network. They dont have as much traffic as Black

Chip Poker yet and they are still working out some minor issues that arose when

they transferred their site over, but overall, they have potential to be the best US

facing site! I would definitely check them out for their 36% rakeback and their

MASSIVE 200% deposit bonus up to $2,000. If that wasnt enough, you check outtheir promotions and freerolls where they are basically just handing you free

money. My favorite part about this site is that they have the highest rakeback for

US facing sites, they pay relatively fast, and you get your rakeback payments

hourly.Check Lock Poker outas it is a good site to grind the micro stakes on or at

the very least, having a second bankroll to take advantage of all the free money

they are giving away!

Poker Software

To be honest, most poker tools really suck and arent worth the money. There are

a few tools that are useful for SNG and tournament players, but for cash game

players, there arent many tools that are really that useful. Since cash game

players play deeper poker than tournament players, we have to have less

automatic decisions (shove/fold) that are pure math and we need to have more

strategy (or actual poker as some call it). Ultimately, your arsenal is going to

come down to two critical pieces of software: an equity program and a handtracking program.

PokerStove
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PokerStoveis hands down my favorite program for figuring out equity. The best

part about it, it is 100% free! I use it all the time off the table to figure out my

equity in different situations. I already discussed above how you can use it for
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studying off the tables. It has many applications in both cash game poker and

tournament poker and is very powerful in that you can specify your opponents

ranges or exact holdings.

Holdem Manager 2

Holdem Manager 2 (HEM2)is an absolute essential! It seems like every year that

goes by the importance of having a heads up display (HUD) goes way up. If you

are grinding multiple tables in the micros, there is no way you can pay attention

to everything going on! This is where HEM2 comes in. You will have the ability to

track all your opponents at the table, plus you can review all of your own statsand plug your leaks a lot easier. HEM2 makes it easy to study your game with

their advanced reports, organized tracking, and clean hand review interface. If

you are grinding the micro-stakes, I highly recommend purchasing their Small

Stakes Version which covers all your imported hands up to $50NL and

tournaments up to $22. For most people, this is the best solution and it only costs
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$59.99. If you are at $25NL or higher and are thinking about moving up anytime

soon, I would highly recommend just purchasing the full version for just a little

more money. If you are still hesitant, dont worry! You candownload a free 30

day free trialthat gives you FULL access to the software! This one piece of

software alone has literally paid for itself over 1,000 times over in my lifetime. Ifyou already have HEM1 or PT3, your software will work fine with most of the

popular sites, but you might want to consider upgrading to HEM2 as it is by far

the most superior tracking software out today. There is a reason why all the pros

use it!

Poker Table Ratings

Poker Table Ratings (PTR)is a website that tracks hands at the most popular card

rooms on the internet. It is notoriously inaccurate but can still prove useful for thededicated cash game grinder. PTR is useful because for just a few dollars, you can

download thousands of tracked hands on your opponents. This allows you to get

an edge at the table by having more accurate and up to date stats on your

opponents. It is especially helpful when you are moving up in a limit or moving

over to a different format (6-max, full ring, or heads up). When is the last time

you have moved up, changed sites, or changed formats and felt completely lost

your first few sessions? With PTR you will never have that feeling. You can save all

the money you would have lost being clueless by downloading thousands of stats

on your opponents!Check out their pricingas it is really reasonable in my opinionand completely worth not getting owned your first few sessions.

Where Can You Go To Get Better

Obviously strategy is half the game while the other half is the work you are willing

to invest towards getting better. This book has hopefully helped get you to a point

where you can know how to get better. There is no way I could cover every little

topic that encompasses poker in one ebook (or regular book for that matter.... ifanyone tries telling you otherwise they are lying). Because there is a huge amount

of forever expanding knowledge out there for you to absorb, you will need some

tools in your poker arsenal.

Nitreg.com
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This is my site so obviously Im going to say it is the best :)

While Im not some high stakes baller or live some flamboyant lifestyle, I do live

off my poker winnings at the small and micro-stakes to pay my way through

school and live modestly. My belief is that with enough effort, anyone can makedecent money at poker and beat the micro-stakes.Nitreg.comshows you how to

do just that despite whatever your poker goals may be. I have free strategy

articles coming out all the time, updated advice that is relevant to todays games,

and you can peek over my shoulder and watch my grind for free on myTwitch

channelandYouTube channel. Check both of them out and if you like what Im

doing, I would greatly appreciate it if you would follow or subscribe on my

pages. Remember, everything is free!

GrinderSchool.com

Again, I have to come forward and inform you guys that Im a coach on this site so

take it for what it is worth.GrinderSchool.comis an awesome poker video

training site because it is geared 100% towards micro-stakes players. Other sites

have better strategy and content, but it is almost exclusively for $100NL and

higher! If you take most of that advice and apply it to the micro-stakes, you will

get crushed by some fish who check/calls down your bluff with second pair! On

top of exclusively training you to crush and move up the micro-stakes, the pricing

is very easy on the wallet. Some other sites charge hundreds of dollars up frontthen charge you a ton every month on top of that! Grinder School charges a very

reasonable $19.99/month with no startup fees. If you only play $10NL and lower

or micro stakes tournaments, you canget access to just those videos for just

$9.99/month. You seriously cant beat all that specialized poker training geared

around the games you play for just one buyin a month!

Deuces Cracked

Deuces Crackedis my overall favorite poker training site because I think it ispriced fairly, has the best strategy for the games I play, and they always deliver

multiple quality videos every day! The strategy they teach is amazing, but again,

be warned that most of it should only be used at higher limits as your opponents

will generally play differently. DC has no startup fees and they only charge $29 a

month which is very reasonable considering that the strategy is geared for people
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who play $100NL+. For most of you guys reading this, DC isnt for you, but in case

you wanted to get that extra edge and really dive into some deep poker concepts

for a great price, feel free tocheck out their library of videosfor a month or two

and see how you like it!

Conclusion

Thanks everyone for checking out my ebook and my site! I really appreciate all the

emails coming in supporting everything Im doing! As the community grows, I get

more and more motivated to pump out awesome new content for you guys. I

have a lot of exciting things planned for the future that I think will revolutionize

online poker trainin

Beat the Micros in 2012

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