BCISS July 2012 Conference on Intelligence Analysis
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Transcript of BCISS July 2012 Conference on Intelligence Analysis
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7/31/2019 BCISS July 2012 Conference on Intelligence Analysis
1/3
Understanding and Improving Intelligence Analysis:
Learning from other Disciplines12-13 July, 2012
London, England
RAF Club
The purpose of this conference is to engage in a cross-disciplinary discussion about the value of
learning from other fields to improve both the understanding and the practice of intelligence analysis.
It will also create the network and infrastructure for an international research collaboration for thestudy of intelligence analysis.
Intelligence, like journalism, involves the acquisition, evaluation, and dissemination of information.
In 1949, Sherman Kent, described as the father of US intelligence analysis, said: Intelligenceorganizations must also have many of the qualities of those of our greatest metropolitan newspapers.
They watch, report, summarize, and analyze. They have their foreign correspondents and homestaff. They have their responsibilities for completeness and accuracywith commensurately greater
penalties for omission and error. . . They even have the problem of editorial control. Intelligenceorganizations (should) put more study upon newspaper organization and borrow those phases of it
which they require.
But the similarities between intelligence analysis and journalism are not unique. Professionals in other
fieldsincluding medicine, the social and behavioural sciences, history and historiography,anthropology and other disciplines engaged in ethnographic research, econometric forecasting, and
legal reasoningalso face many similar challenges to those that exist in intelligence analysis,including:
Difficulties acquiring information from a wide variety of sources Vetting and evaluating the information that is acquired Deriving understanding and meaning from that information Impact of deadlines, editing, and other production processes on accuracy of analysis and assessment Problems in dissemination and distribution to consumers or customers Managing relationship between producer and consumer (role, responsibility, independence &
objectivity) Developing professional infrastructure (recruit, select, train, & develop personnel; code of ethics) Overcoming impact of changing technology and alternative information distribution systemsHow do practitioners in various non-intelligence fields overcome these kinds of challenges? How are
their challenges similar to or different from those that exist in the intelligence arena? What can be
learned from the comparison?
This event has been funded through a grant from the Brunel University Research and Innovation
Fund. They are organized and hosted by Brunel Universitys Centre for Intelligence and SecurityStudies in collaboration with University ofMississippis Center for Intelligence and Security Studies.
Conference Contact:Dr. Stephen Marrin
Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies
Department of Politics and History
Brunel University
Uxbridge (West London), England
[email protected] or [email protected]
Phone: +44 (0) 1895 267 864
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7/31/2019 BCISS July 2012 Conference on Intelligence Analysis
2/3
Understanding and Improving Intelligence Analysis:
Learning from other Disciplines12-13 July, 2012
London, England
RAF Club
Understanding and Improving Intelligence Analysis: Learning from other Disciplines
Day 1: Thursday 12 July
8:00 Registration and Coffee9:00 Welcome Part 1:
Stephen Marrin (Brunel University): Learning from Other Disciplines, including Medicine and
Journalism
9:30 Comparisons to Other Fields Part 1
Analysis as a Type of Information Processing
10:30 Break
11:00 Comparisons to Other Fields Part 2
Publishing
Is Not Believing: Insights for
Intelligence Analysis from Professional Magicians.
12:00 Lunch
1:30 Intelligence Analysis and Social Science(Coventry University): Bayesian analysis in intelligence and social sciences: a
tool for all trades?
Inquiry Under Uncertainty, or On Some Affinities Between Obtaining Intelligence and
Intelligence Reasoning from Evidence
2:30 Break3:00 Intelligence Analysis and History
d the British Columbia Institute of
Technology Crime and Intelligence Analysis Program) Seekers after Truth: Cross-Disciplinary
Insights for the Intelligence Profession from the Biblical and Theological Studies Discipline
anch, UK Ministry of Defence): The Unreliable Memoirs of
an Applied Historian and Operational Analyst and
4:00 Break
4:15 Intelligence Analysis and Perception(Federal
Executive Institute): Neuroscience in Intelligence Analysis: Understanding How the Brain Works
and Its Impact on Analytic Decision Making
Multi-Level Cognitive Biases in the Chain of Intelligence FlowFrom Source to Consumers
the Science into the Art of Intelligence Analysis)
5:30 Day One Adjourns
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7/31/2019 BCISS July 2012 Conference on Intelligence Analysis
3/3
Understanding and Improving Intelligence Analysis:
Learning from other Disciplines12-13 July, 2012
London, England
RAF Club
Day 2: Friday 13 July
8:00 Registration and Coffee
9:00 Welcome Part 29:15 Evaluating Intelligence
of Intelligence: Lessons from Inside and Outside the Intelligence Community
10:15 Evaluating IntelligenceStephen Marrin (Brunel University): Evaluating the Quality of Intelligence Analysis: By What
(Mis) Measure?
(McGill University): Measuring Intelligence Success:
Conceptual and Methodological Challenges of Intelligence Measurement
10:45 Break
11:00 Intelligence Analysis and the Dismal Science
ernment Statistics
ligence Analysis and Economics
12:00 Lunch
1:30 Improving Communication
Positioned FDNY Watchline at the Forefront of Fire Service Analytical Intelligence
What Doesnt and How to Fix Itlitical Marketing Intelligence
2:30 Break
3:00Applying Knowledge from Other Fields to Increase Understanding
Patterns of Civil Unrest: An Interdisciplinary Efforturrent Intelligence Reporting and the H5N1 Bird Flu
Virus: Insights from the Field of Science and Technology Studies
4:00 Break
4:15 Practitioner views, summary, and next steps
5:30pm Conference Adjourns