BCII 2016 - Visualizing Complexity
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Transcript of BCII 2016 - Visualizing Complexity
Visualizing Complexity
utscic.edu.au
Simon Buckingham Shum Director, Connected Intelligence Centre Professor of Learning Informatics University of Technology Sydney @sbuckshum / http://Simon.BuckinghamShum.net
UTS Bachelor of Creative Intelligence & Innovation (BCII) Creativity & Complexity school, February 1-12, 2016 (2 hour lecture/exercises)
Except where slides are linking to external resources using other licenses: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License
how do humans experience complexity?
2
Welcome to “informed bewilderment”
“The 21st century will not be a dark age. Neither will it deliver to most people the bounties promised by the most extraordinary technological revolution in history. Rather, it may well be characterised by informed bewilderment.”
Manuel Castells
technology is a driver of complexity
can technology help with sensemaking?
4
key concepts (are purple)
5
3 visualization approaches to grapple with complexity
…all of which you could use in your degree …and your professional and personal life
6
1. visualize models of the complex system
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2. visualize possible meanings with image/metaphor/narrative
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3. visualize the dialogue + debate as you explore the dilemma
9
VUCA
Volatile • Uncertain
Complex • Ambiguous
From the known to the unknown
Unknown Strange Uncomfortable
What we know Familiar
Comfortable
From the known to the unknown
Unknown Strange Uncomfortable
What we know Familiar
Comfortable
“liminal space”
From the known to the unknown
Unknown Strange Uncomfortable
What we know Familiar
Comfortable
“liminal space”
“Liminal Space… when you have left the tried and true but have not yet been able to replace it with anything else.
Limina is the Latin word for threshold, the space betwixt and between http://sojo.net/magazine/2002/01/grieving-sacred-space
…when you are between your old comfort zone and any possible new
answer… If you are not trained in how to hold anxiety, how to live with ambiguity, how to entrust and wait, you will run…
anything to flee this terrible cloud of unknowing.”
Richard Rohr O.F.M. — on the spirituality of liminal space
1968
San Francisco, Fall Joint Computer Conference — Dec. 9th 1968
h"p://dougengelbart.org/library/engelbart-‐archives.html
h"p://dougengelbart.org/library/engelbart-‐archives.html
“we need better tools to tackle “humanity’s complex,
urgent problems”
19
2000
Engelbart’s work has since been recognised in the highest echelons of computing…
http://DougEngelbart.org
Engelbart’s vision was not just personal computing, but “Collective IQ”
http://visualinsight.net/_engelbart/engelbart_mural.jpg
…and cool tools alone would never be enough: we needed culture shifts and new ways of working
The ‘Mother of All Demos’ 1968
wicked problems
24
A I artificial intelligence
I A intelligence augmentation
collective intelligence
contested collective intelligence …because different viewpoints are
important, and must be visible
1. visualize models of the complex system
classic scientific computing approach, and now ‘Big Data’/Analytics in society at large
sense • model • analyse • visualise • act / recommend action
29
Information Visualization & Visual Analytics Using the power of sensors, computational processing, and computer graphics to make the invisible visible.
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Hand-crafted, co-designed, systems models (cf. the work of UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures)
Hand-crafted, co-designed, systems models
32 http://www.paconsulting.com/afghanistan-causal-diagram
Hand-crafted systems models More of this from the Institute for Sustainable Futures later this week…
33
interpreting visualizations
34
Visualising a meeting (Flashmeeting, Open University UK)
Visualising a meeting: video conference analytics (Flashmeeting, Open University UK)
Sess
ion
AV Chat AV Chat
1
2
3
Mentor 1 Mentor 2
Which mentor would you want to have?... Analytics from introductory foreign language tutorials
http
s://t
witt
er.co
m/W
isw
ijzer
2/st
atus
/414
0554
7245
1575
808
“Note: check the huge difference between knowing and measuring…”
38
Bowker, G. C. and Star, L. S. (1999). Sorting Things Out: Classification and Its Consequences. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 277, 278, 281
“Classification systems provide both a warrant and a tool for forgetting [...] what to forget and how to forget it [...] The argument comes down to asking not only what gets coded in but what gets coded out of a given scheme.”
39
“sensemaking” 41
Sensemaking: the search for plausible connections
In their review of sensemaking, Klein, et al. conclude:
“By sensemaking, modern researchers seem to mean something different from creativity, comprehension, curiosity, mental modeling, explanation, or situational awareness, although all these factors or phenomena can be involved in or related to sensemaking. Sensemaking is a motivated, continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively. […] A frame functions as a hypothesis about the connections among data.”
42
Sensemaking
Karl Weick proposes that:
“Sensemaking is about such things as placement of items into frameworks, comprehending, redressing surprise, constructing meaning, interacting in pursuit of mutual understanding, and patterning.” Sensemaking in Organizations, p.6
43
Sensemaking
Karl Weick:
“The point we want to make here is that sensemaking is about plausibility, coherence, and reasonableness. Sensemaking is about accounts that are socially acceptable and credible” (p.61)
44
2. visualize possible meanings with image/metaphor/narrative
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Leadership Competencies for Complex Challenges
Palus, C.J., & Drath, W.H. (2001). Putting Something in the Middle: An Approach to Dialogue. Reflections. 3(2), pp.28-39. http://www.leadingeffectively.com/interdependent-leadership/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Mediated_dialogue_Palus-and-Drath.pdf
slowing down perception and dialogue in order to see more clearly,
and in new ways 47
Visual Explorer group exercise
Chuck Palus & David Horth: Center for Creative Leadership http://www.leadingeffectively.com/leadership-explorer/category/visualexplorer
51
Visual Explorer exercise
“This how I’m thinking/feeling about finding a job.”
Or: choose your own challenge or dilemma
Pick a picture that resonates with this and study it closely,
52
Visual Explorer — Star Model: Dialogue by “putting something in the middle”
2. Group members describe what they see, using the phrase “If that were my image…”
3. The image is ‘given back’ to the originator so that the originator has the last word (new insights).
1. One person at a time describe your image, then explain how it relates to the question.
feedback? 54
3. visualize the dialogue + debate as you explore the dilemma
55
Issue Mapping: Questions, Ideas, Decisions, Pros + Cons
Compendium: http://compendiumng.org
Issue Mapping: Questions, Ideas, Decisions, Pros + Cons
Cognexus Institute: http://cognexus.org
Demo: let’s visualize the collective intelligence in the room…
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My 11 year old…
59
My 11 year old…
60
My 11 year old…
61
My 11 year old…
62
My 11 year old…
63
My 11 year old…
64
My 11 year old…
65
My 11 year old…
66
Issue Mapping: BCII example from yesterday
Compendium: http://compendiumng.org
Compendium: http://compendiumng.org
69
Key Ques(on
An Idea in response
Glyma: integrating websites into the map
Glyma: http://glyma.co
70
Node summarises video clip
Key Ques(on
An Idea in response
Glyma: integrating websites into the map
Glyma: http://glyma.co
Glyma: integrating websites into the map
71
Node summarises video clip
Node links to web doc
Key Ques(on
An Idea in response
Glyma: http://glyma.co
Stirling Alliance: Long Term Transport Plan (Perth, AUS)
Also used for: • Corporate strategy and org redesign
(private and public sector) • Procurement strategy for $500M+ civil
infrastructure projects • Project inceptions and lessons learnt
Copyright SevenSigma 2011 http://www.sevensigma.com.au/what-we-have-done/case-studies.html
Mapping important conversations in real time
73
Organisational scenario planning (Open University UK)
Workflow analysis (Shuttle Launch Control, NASA)
Hostage recovery scenario: how to apply political pressure?
The collective intelligence available in the room and online: Dialogue Map capturing the team’s deliberations
Visual background structures the display for planning
75
NASA Mobile Agents Field Trials: Simulating an Earth/Mars work system
http://bit.ly/MarsFieldTrials
General Election debates, 2010
76 http://people.kmi.open.ac.uk/sbs/2010/04/debate-replay-with-map
generating documents from conversational maps
77
Document generation from IBIS maps
78
Document generation from IBIS maps
79
Collaboratively built map from a meeting
From a map template to documentation (Y2K planning)
Requirements specification in the org template
B uildAss ign ableInventory
Ass ign ableInventory
D evia tions /C ha nge s
( E ngr S c hed )A pprova ls
Integrate d/R e vise d
R e quire me nts
F ieldS pec ific
As signm ents/As signm e nt
Lis t
Insta lla tionD e tails/
S pe cs /N D O
As signa bleInventory
N otice (E 1)
Data flow diagram for engineer
Hands-on: mapping a conversation as a
network of ideas
81
Recording from a fictional meeting with a telecoms client Summarise this as clearly as possible as an issue map which you will send your client as a record of the key issues, the options considered, the decisions made, and why. Client: Could you run some analytics on customer comments to see if there’s anything interesting?
You: Well there are many approaches we could take: what are you looking for?
Client: Basically, can we predict if they’re about to switch from us?
You: There’s research evidence that they follow their friends and family in switching phone provider. As for comments, the evidence seems to be that most tweet this, though some will complain to you first. Sentiment mining is a possibility. Twitter gives you social networks too.
Client: That social stuff is really interesting, and I know Belstra are testing this. But won’t customers find it creepy that we analyse their tweets?
You: Possibly, and remember that twitter feed is always filtered. OK, well it’s safer to analyse your own databases. Is it just phone or are you interested in other services too?... And do you have data on any social ties between customers?
Client: Internet and TV are also relevant but let’s start with phone. The customer DB knows about families. OK let’s just mine our CRM data for telltale comments to start with, and see if that tallies with family members following each other out the door.
You: OK, we can merge datasets and test a predictive model of each independently, and combined. 82
Issue Mapping: Questions, Ideas, Decisions, Pros + Cons
Compendium: http://compendiumng.org
Example map from this exercise
84
Example map from this exercise
85
Hybrid: fusing different ways of knowing
scaling this for the web
Towards “Contested Collective Intelligence” 88
An Evidence Hub shows who in the community is tackling which parts of the problem
People / Organizations / Projects / Claims / Evidence
Evidence Hub for Research by Children & Young People: http://rcyp.evidence-hub.net 89
Impact Map: how much evidence is there to support an improvement hypothesis?
http://oermap.org/hypothesis/586/hypothesis-i-transition 90
Knowledge Art
91
some people know how to create the right representation
at the right moment
to harness a group’s energy and insights
…shared meaning
Improv kitchen sensemaking
94
A language for talking about the skills and dispositions needed to use the right representation at the right moment to help a team make sense of a problem
95
96
Book: “Constructing Knowledge Art” https://www.facebook.com/constructingknowledgeart
97
Summary Towards Contested
Collective Intelligence tools for complex problems
98
“Augmenting human intellect” http://DougEngelbart.org Phenomena in complex social systems Role for Human+Computer Collective Intelligence?
Dangers of entrained thinking from experts who fail to recognise a novel phenomenon
• Technology should pay particular attention to exceptions • Computer-supported argumentation for rigorous reflection • Design tools that encourage diverse perspectives and highlight
inconsistencies
Human systems sometimes can be modelled but outcomes are unpredictable — we often make sense of them retrospectively through the construction of plausible narratives
• Stories and coherent pathways are important • Reflection and overlaying of interpretation(s) is critical • Imagery, metaphor, narrative
Patterns are emergent through the interaction of agents, both machine and human
• Generate gestalt views from the data evidenced in the platform, not from preconceptions
Much of the relevant knowledge in the network is tacit, shared through behaviour and discourse, not formal codifications
• Scaffold the formation of significant inter-personal, learning relationships — not everything can be written down
Many small signals can build over time into a significant force/change • Enable individuals to monitor the environment, highlighting important events and connections — aggregate and analyse
Sources include: Weick (1995); Kurtz & Snowden (2003); Browning, L. and Boudès, T. (2005); Hagel et al (2010). See also http://oro.open.ac.uk/23352
“liminal space tools” should help us grapple with uncertainty + complexity…
manage webs of connections
think critically + engage in debate hold conflicting perspectives in tension wield tools for collective sensemaking
integrate identity + aspiration with work
These slides, videos + readings: http://Simon.BuckinghamShum.net/2016/02/bcii-visualizing-complexity
utscic.edu.au