BCC4: Delaney on Stats and Trials "Stuff"
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Transcript of BCC4: Delaney on Stats and Trials "Stuff"
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STATS AND TRIALS STUFF
Anthony Delaney MBBS MSc FACEM FCICM
Staff Specialist Malcolm Fisher Department of Intensive Care Medicine
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Disclaimer
I ain’t a statistician More of an enthusiastic amateur
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So…..
Difference between mortality and survival? How to interpret a “negative” trial result?
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Mortality or survival?
Mortality: Number of deaths/number at risk at the end of a period
of time 28 day mortality Rate
Survival: Time to event analysis How long it takes for the event to happen If you have survived for x time, what are your chances of
dying in x+1 time Hazard
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Population: >18 yo Source of infection Temperature >38.3oC or <35.6oC Heart rate > 90bpm SBP <90 mmHg for 1 hour if adequate fluids and some pressors Urine output <0.5 ml/kg/hr for > 1 hr or PaO2/FiO2 <280 Lactate >2 mmol/L Ventilated Excluded:
pregnant, contra/indication to steroids, advanced cancer, AMI, PE, AIDS,
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Intervention: Hydrocortisone mg q6h ivi Fludrocortisone 50mg po daily For 7 days
Comparison: Placebo For 7 days
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Outcome: The primary endpoint was the 28-day survival
distribution from randomisation in non-responders to the short corticotropin test
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Point one Post-randomisation sub groups are dubious
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Is the subgroup variable a characteristic measured at baseline or after randomisation?
“The credibility of subgroup hypotheses based on post-randomisation characteristics is severely compromised, and can be rejected simply on this criterion”
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Subdivision of patients in ISIS-2 with respect to birth signs
Gemini and Libra shows an adverse effect on mortality
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Results: 300 participants In non-responders
Placebo 73/115 (63%) Steroids 60/114 (53%) Hazard ratio 0.67 95% CI 0.47-0.95; P=0.02
Conclusion: Treatment with hydrocortisone and
fludrocortisone significantly reduced the risk of death in patients with septic shock and adrenal insufficiency
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Date of download: 9/11/2013Copyright © 2012 American Medical Association.
All rights reserved.
From: Effect of Treatment With Low Doses of Hydrocortisone and Fludrocortisone on Mortality in Patients With Septic Shock
JAMA. 2002;288(7):862-871. doi:10.1001/jama.288.7.862
Results are according to the response to the short corticotropintest. In nonresponders, the median time to death was 12 days in the placeboand 24 days in the corticosteroid groups; in responders, 14 days in the placeboand 16.5 days in the corticosteroid groups; and in all patients, 13 days inthe placebo and 19.5 in the corticosteroid groups.
Figure Legend:
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In nonresponders, the median time to death was 12 days in the placebo and 24 days in the corticosteroid groups;
in responders, 14 days in the placebo and 16.5 days in the corticosteroid groups;
and in all patients, 13 days in the placebo and 19.5 in the corticosteroid groups.
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Mortality or Survival
Time (days)28
Survival
1.0
0.5
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i
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How big a difference in mortality do you think putting a tracheostomy in at Day 4 compared to Day 10 would make on 30 day mortality?
50% RRR (15% ARR) 25% RRR (7.5% ARR) 10% RRR (3% ARR) 5% RRR (1.5% ARR)
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“Negative trials”
n
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Population: Mechanically ventilated adults Had been ventilated for 4 days and thought to
require at least 7 more days of ventilation Excluded:
Those requiring a tracheostomy, contraindication to tracheostomy, respiratory failure due to chronic neurological disease
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Intervention: Trachesotomy by Day 4
Comparison: Tracheostomy after Day 10 if still required
Outcome: All cause mortality 30 days from randomisation
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Sample Size Calculation: Baseline mortality of 30% Absolute risk reduction 6.3% (21% RRR) Power 80% Alpha 5% 4% loss to follow up
N=1692
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Due to study fatigue and exhaustion of funding
N=899
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“Tracheostomy within 4 days of critical care admission was not associated with an improvement in 30 day mortality”
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We are 95% certain that early tracheostomy might be between
5.4% worse to 6.7% better in absolute risk About 20% better or worse in terms of relative
risk
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6.3% of patients had a complication of tracheostomy
53% of patients who were randomised to delayed trache didn’t need one
2 year mortality was 52.3% Only 5 lost to follow up
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Conclusions: Unable to rule out a clinically important difference
between early and late trache It probably doesn’t make a big difference to
mortality Unknown about patient perspective
Useful information about the patient cohort
Not really a “negative trial”
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QUESTIONS??