BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013...

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1 Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12 th , 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value proposition

Transcript of BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013...

Page 1: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013

Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO

BBVA: Strengths and opportunitiesA unique global value proposition

Page 2: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Disclaimer

This document is only provided for information purposes and does not constitute, nor must it be interpreted as, an offer to sell or exchange or

acquire, or an invitation for offers to buy securities issued by any of the aforementioned companies. Any decision to buy or invest in securities in

relation to a specific issue must be made solely and exclusively on the basis of the information set out in the pertinent prospectus filed by the

company in relation to such specific issue. Nobody who becomes aware of the information contained in this report must regard it as definitive,

because it is subject to changes and modifications.

This document contains or may contain forward looking statements (in the usual meaning and within the meaning of the US Private Securities

Litigation Act of 1995) regarding intentions, expectations or projections of BBVA or of its management on the date thereof, that refer to

miscellaneous aspects, including projections about the future earnings of the business. The statements contained herein are based on our current

projections, although the said earnings may be substantially modified in the future by certain risks, uncertainty and others factors relevant that

may cause the results or final decisions to differ from such intentions, projections or estimates. These factors include, without limitation, (1) the

market situation, macroeconomic factors, regulatory, political or government guidelines, (2) domestic and international stock market movements,

exchange rates and interest rates, (3) competitive pressures, (4) technological changes, (5) alterations in the financial situation, creditworthiness or

solvency of our customers, debtors or counterparts. These factors could condition and result in actual events differing from the information and

intentions stated, projected or forecast in this document and other past or future documents. BBVA does not undertake to publicly revise the

contents of this or any other document, either if the events are not exactly as described herein, or if such events lead to changes in the stated

strategies and estimates.

This document may contain summarised information or information that has not been audited, and its recipients are invited to consult the

documentation and public information filed by BBVA with stock market supervisory bodies, in particular, the prospectuses and periodical

information filed with the Spanish Securities Exchange Commission (CNMV) and the Annual Report on form 20-F and information on form 6-K that

are disclosed to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be prohibited, and recipients into whose possession this document comes shall be solely

responsible for informing themselves about, and observing any such restrictions. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the

foregoing Restrictions.

Page 3: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Contents

2 BBVA: strengths and opportunities

1 Stabilizing and improving environment

3 Conclusions

Page 4: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Jan

-11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

No

v-11

Jan

-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

No

v-12

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

ECB focus on financial stability has removed Euro break-up risk10Y Spread Spain-Germany (bp)

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of June 10, 2013.

Risk premium reduced by 53% (-335 bps)

Crisis in Cyprus

“The ECB will do whatever it takes to

preserve the €”

LTRO

Stronger EU / Banking Union

After austerity, focus shifting towards pro-growth initiatives?

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Towards a stronger European Monetary Union

Single rule Book: CRD4

Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)

Banks’ direct recapitalization

Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM)

Single Deposit Guarantee Fund

Asset quality review

EBA’s stress test

Developments in theEuropean Banking Union

Passed in April, 2013

Effective from March, 2014

Results expected in 1H14

Under discussion

Awaiting proposal

Pending

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9.07.0 6.5

2.64.6

2011Deficit

Withoutany fiscalmeasure

Fiscal effort 2012Deficit

2013eDeficit-5.5

-9.6

-4.8 -4.5 -3.7-1.1

0.5

Average1999 -2007

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e

Spain has made significant progress in correcting its imbalances

Private Sector deleverage Strong Fiscal adjustment

Public Deficit* (% of GDP)

Source: BBVA Research

External imbalance adjustment

Current Account Deficit (% of GDP)

Source: BBVA Research* Ex Financial sector reform

% Households debt over GDP: reduction from peak to March 2013

Spain Eurozone

-9.8 %

- 1.3 %

Source: Haver Analytics based on Bank of Spain and ECB

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After the adjustment of the construction sector, Spain will start to grow in 2014 driven by exports and investment in equipment

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Construction GDP Excluding construction

17%

22% 12%

Spain: GDP and Construction contribution to GDP€Bn and %

Spain: exports and investment in equipment and machinery (2008=100)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Dec

-99

Dec

-00

Dec

-01

Dec

-02

Dec

-03

Dec

-04

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

Dec

-09

Dec

-10

Dec

-11

Dec

-12

Dec

-13

Dec

-14

Goods and services exports

Equipment and machinery investment

Source: BBVA Research Source: BBVA Research based on INE data

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Contents

2 BBVA: strengths and opportunities

1 Stabilizing and improving environment

3 Conclusions

Page 9: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Resilient earnings4

Superior asset quality3

High and recurrent gross income2

BBVA’s strengths

Diversification1

Balance sheet strength (Capital & Liquidity) 5

Page 10: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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BBVA’s international expansion has been biased to high growth markets

Note: Excluding Corporate Activities. Year-on-year variation in constant €.

30%

3%

9%28%

24%

5% 1%Spain

Rest of Europe

USA

Mexico

South America

TurkeyAsia

USA

DevelopedDeveloped

42%

YoY chg.

Weight

-4.4%

EmergingEmerging

58%

YoY chg.

Weight

+9.1%

Breakdown of gross income 1Q13%

1 DIVERSIFICATION

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High and recurrent gross income

2 HIGH & RECURRENT GROSS INCOME

BBVA Group gross income Quarter by quarter(€ Mn)

5,2655,806

5,5125,858

5,471 5,582

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 QuarterlyAverage

+3.9%

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A stable asset quality profile, balancing different credit cycles

Spain (banking activity)

4.3% 50%

Eurasia 3.0% 87%

Mexico 3.7% 117%

S.America 2.2% 143%

USA 1.8% 109%

NPA ratioCoverage

ratio

NPA & coverage ratiosBBVA Group(%)

NPA ratio

Coverage ratio

Cost of Risk

(Annualized)1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 1.5%

6066

69 72 71

4.0 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.3

Mar.12 Jun.12 Sep. 12 Dec. 12 Mar.13

3 SUPERIOR ASSET QUALITY

NPA & coverage ratios by business unitMarch 2013(%)

Spain (loans to developers)

48% 76%

Page 13: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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BBVA’s earnings generation capacity has improved through the crisis

Note: Operating income includes income from discontinued operations

4 RESILIENT EARNINGS

8.39.6 10.5

12.3 11.910.6

12.2

-1.5 -1.9-3.0

-7.0-5.2 -6.1

-9.1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Operating IncomeProvisions+Impairment of Non Financial Assets

BBVA Operating Income vs. provisions and impairment of non-financial assets(€ Bn)

Significant profit upside as the credit cycle improves

252268

283 291313

331 329

3.3%3.6% 3.7%

4.2% 3.8%

3.2%

3.7%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

200

250

300

350

400

450

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

RWAs (€ Bn)

Operating Income / RWAs (%)

BBVA RWAs and Operating Income/RWAs (€ Bn, %)

Page 14: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Strong capital generation capacity

€16 Bn

+42 bps

5.3%6.2%

8.0%

9.6%10.3%

10.8% 11.2%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q13

+592 bps

Core capital ratio (BIS 2)

Core €36.7Bnx 2.3

5 BS STRENGTH (Capital)

Without selling core assets

Absorption of RE provisioning

Maintaining our dividend policy:€1.3 Bn paid in cash in 2012

1st European Issuer of BIS 3 Additional Tier I capital

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Comfortable capital position under new BIS 3 regulation

Reported BIS 3 Core ratio expected to be > 10% through the phase in period

Impacts with no phase in: Impacts with phase in-60 bp -275 bp

Other30 bp

Total ImpactsBIS 3 FULLY LOADED

-305 bp

11.2

9.0

- 49

- 11 -7 -158

-110

+ 30

+ 85

BIS 2.5 March2013

Software RWAs (CVA andSMEs)

Minorities DTAs Stakes inFinancial Entities

and Insurancecompanies

Current ExcessCore vs. Tier 1

Organicgeneration,announced

capital gains,RWA evolution

BIS 3 Dic 2013e(fully loaded)

Includes ∼100 bp of tax losses carried forward,

expected to be compensated between

2015 and 2018

5 BS STRENGTH (Capital)

Page 16: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Sound liquidity position of the Euro Balance Sheet

Domestic LTD ratio(1) improvement

(1) The ratio excludes securitizations and repos and includes promissory notes placed in the retail network.(2) Liquidity buffer: defined as the number of times that next 3 months’ unsecured funding maturities are covered by available collateral. Figures as of June 7, 2013.

147%

134%132%

Dec.11 Dec.12 Mar.13

• Commercial gap reduction: €23 Bn in 2012 and €9 Bn in 1Q13• Ample collateral available: 2.7x liquidity buffer(2)

5 BS STRENGTH (Liquidity)

BBVA has issued Eur 10 bn in the public capital markets since last summer:

€ 1.5 bn senior debtSept’12

€ 1 bn & USD 1.5 bn senior debtOct’12

€ 2 bn covered bondDec’12

€ 1.5 bn senior debt and € 1 bn covered bond

Jan’13

€ 1.5 bn senior debtMar’13

USD 1.5 bn Additional Tier 1May’13

Page 17: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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BBVA’s opportunities: Significant medium term upside in all geographical areas

South America

USA

Mexico

Turkey

High and stable business growthAcceleration of profit growth

Growth to stabilize at a high and sustainable level Balanced diversification within the region

Market share gains in Texas / SunbeltMargin normalization

High business growthHigher contribution to BBVA

SpainMarket share gains with margin normalizationProvisions normalization

Page 18: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Contents

2 BBVA: strengths and opportunities

1 Stabilizing and improving environment

3 Conclusions

Page 19: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Conclusions

EnvironmentEnvironment

Creation of financial stability

Momentum in reform and budget discipline

Path towards European Banking Union

BBVABBVA

Sustainable business model

BBVA offers a unique global value proposition, positioned to take advantage of structural and cyclical growth opportunities

1

2

3

4

5

6

Presence in attractive markets

Founded on strong capital and liquidity, with high operating income

Page 20: BBVA: Strengths and opportunities...Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013 Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO BBVA: Strengths and opportunities A unique global value

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Goldman Sachs, European Financials Conference June 12th, 2013

Erik Schotkamp, Deputy CFO

BBVA: Strengths and opportunitiesA unique global value proposition