Bayan 2012 Guidance
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Transcript of Bayan 2012 Guidance
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0www.bayan.com.sg
2012 Guidance
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Executive Summary
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Total production is Budgeted to be in the range of 19.4-20.4 million MT
and this represents approximately a CAGR of 35%-36% since 2008
• Achieved through continued ramp up of all existing sites plus the
initial production from Mamahak (“MCM”)
Strong order book with 18.2 million MT of committed and contracted
sales volume for 2012
• 27.9% on fixed price basis
• ASP anticipated to be in the range of US$ 96-99/MT based on the
benchmark reference price being maintained at US$ 115.7/MT
Cash costs anticipated to increase in the range of US$ 78-80/MT
(include COGS, Royalties, and SGA)
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Executive Summary (Continued)
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Capex
• 2012 and 2013 will be important years for investing in infrastructure
which will significantly expand capacity at the Tabang concession as
well as enabling MCM and GPK to be brought into production
2012 Capex is anticipated to be in the region of US$ 255 million and
major projects include:
• Completion of the PIK jetty extension and construction of ship loader
• Purchased KFT – 2 allocated for the Tabang/Pakar project
• Construction of the initial phase of the material handling infrastructure
at the Tabang/Pakar project as well as coal haul road
construction/upgrade
• Construction of initial site infrastructure at MCM and GPK
• Purchase of equipment to support coal handling at all mine sites
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Coal Production
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2011 2012BGunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block I 0.4 0.9Gunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block II 3.4 3.3-3.5Perkasa Inakakerta 3.2 3.8-4.0Teguh Sinar Abadi 1.3 0.7Firman Ketaun Perkasa 1.3 2.4-2.5Fajar Sakti Prima 1.7 1.6-1.7Bara Tabang 0.6Wahana Baratama Mining 4.3 4.7-5.0Pakar South 0.9-1.0Mamahak 0.5Total 15.6 19.4-20.4
(in million MT) ProductionCoal Production
4.75.9
11.4 11.9
15.6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B
(million MT) 19.4-20.4
1Q12B 2Q12B 3Q12B 4Q12B
(million MT)
4.2-4.34.8-5.1
5.2-5.6 5.2-5.4
Quarterly Coal Production
Note : B stands for Budgeted Figure
FY12 Production Volume is Budgeted to be in the range of 19.4 to 20.4 million MT
Existing operations will continue to ramp up combined with initial production from Pakar and Mamahak
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Overburden Removal Volume (OB)
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2011 2012BGunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block I 4.2 15.0-16.5Gunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block II 69.2 72.8-80.3Perkasa Inakakerta 29.9 36.2-39.9Teguh Sinar Abadi 15.3 8.0-8.8Firman Ketaun Perkasa 18.2 34.0-37.5Fajar Sakti Prima 3.9 6.8-7.7Bara Tabang 2.7-3.0Wahana Baratama Mining 79.3 82.8-91.3Pakar South 4.2-4.6Mamahak 0.3 10.5-11.5Total 220.1 273.0-301.1
(in million BCM) OBOverburden Removal
63.0
104.0
160.0 178.0
220.1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B
(million BCM) 273.0-301.1
1Q12B 2Q12B 3Q12B 4Q12B
(million BCM)
61.8-68.166.7-73.3
71.5-79.4 73.0-80.3
Quarterly Overburden Removal
Note : B stands for Budgeted Figure
FY12 OB is Budgeted to be in the range of 273.0 to 301.1 million BCM
Subcontractors have already placed orders for the required equipment with mobilization occurring throughout the year
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Weighted Average Actual Strip Ratio (SR)
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2011 2012BGunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block I 10.3 16.6-18.3Gunungbayan Pratamacoal - Block II 20.6 22.2-22.9Perkasa Inakakerta 9.2 9.5-10.0Teguh Sinar Abadi 11.6 11.4-12.6Firman Ketaun Perkasa 14.4 14.2-15.0Fajar Sakti Prima 2.3 4.2-4.5Bara Tabang 4.5-5.0Wahana Baratama Mining 18.5 17.6-18.3Pakar South 4.6 Mamahak 20.1 20.9-23.0Total 14.1 14.1-14.8
Weighted Ave SRWeighted Average SR (:1)
Weighted Average Strip Ratio
13.5
17.4
14.0 15.0 14.1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B
14.1-14.8
1Q12B 2Q12B 3Q12B 4Q12B
14.7-15.8 13.9-14.4 13.8-14.2 14.0-14.9
Quarterly Weighted Average SR
Note : B stands for Budgeted Figure
FY12 Weighted Average Strip Ratio is Budgeted to be in the range of 14.1 to 14.8 : 1
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Cash Costs
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(US$ / MT)
42.9
67.256.4 61.5
78.3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B
78.0-80.0
(1) Average cash costs include barging, royalty, and SGA(2) US$ is a convenience translation using the average quarterly exchange
rate for the quarter numbers(3) B stands for Budgeted Figure
*
Average Cash Costs per MT (*)
(US$ / liter)
* Published by Pertamina, including PBBKB and VAT
Pertamina Diesel Oil Price (*)
FY12 Average Cash Costs are Budgeted to be in the range of US$ 78.0-80.0 / MT due to : Longer overhaul distance at some sites Inflationary pressures
1.01
0.58
0.76
1.08 1.05
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B
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Coal Sales
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Coal Sales Volume
7.1 6.7
12.0 12.7 15.3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B
20.0-20.8
Geographic Distribution2011
(million MT)
FY12 Sales Volume is Budgeted to be in the range of 20.0 to 20.8 million MT as strong market conditions prevails
India continues to be Bayan’s biggest customer in terms of volume
1Q12B 2Q12B 3Q12B 4Q12B
(million MT)
4.2-4.3
5.6-5.84.8-5.0
5.4-5.7
Quarterly Coal Sales
Note : B stands for Budgeted Figure
India
Italy
26%
19%
12%10%
10%
8%
5%
10%
China
India
Japan
Thailand
Taiwan
Malaysia
Others
Italy
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Average Selling Price (ASP)
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(US$ / MT)
Average Selling Price(*)
53.1
74.9
62.0
75.5
98.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B
96.0-99.0
FY12 ASP is Budgeted to be in the range of US$ 96.0 to 99.0 / MT
FY 2011 ASP assumes an average US$ 115.7 / MT FOB for bituminous benchmark coal price @ 6,322 k/cal GAR
(1) ASP includes coal and non-coal sales(2) US$ is a convenience translation using the average annual exchange rate(3) B stands for Budgeted Figure
*
Average CV 5,928 5,799 5,778 5,713
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Committed and Contracted Sales
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2012
Fixed Price Floating Price
18.2 million MT
27.9%
72.1%
Note : December 2011
As at 31 December 2011 committed and contracted sales were 18.2 million MT with an average CV of 5,743 GAR kcal
2012 Fixed Price element at US$ 78.07 / MT with an average CV of 5,115 GAR kcal
Additional sales contracts will be entered into during the year as visibility on actual production volumes increases
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Capital Expenditure
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(1) US$ is a convenience translation using the average annual exchange rate
*
255.0
2012B
(US$ million)
CAPEX (*)
FY12 capital expenditure is anticipated to be in the region of US$ 255 million
Major capital projects include:
PIK Jetty Extension
KFT-2 to be delivered in late 2012
Integrated Tabang/Pakar expansion project
Initial development of the MCM and GPK projects
Stockpiling expansion at WBM
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Capital Expenditure
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PIK The piling work for the PIK jetty has been
completed and construction of the marine dolphins has commenced
Construction of the conveyor gantries and ship loader continues and the overall project is anticipated to be completed 3Q12
Tabang
Engineering concept design for the Tabang/ Pakar material handling infrastructure, coal haul road construction/upgrade and associated geotechnical work are progressing well
External consultants have been appointed and working on the design whilst tender documents (for the haul road construction/upgrade) have been issued in the 4Q11
The construction will be in phases: the first of which is scheduled for completion by the end of 2012
Lubuk Tutung jetty extension
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Capital Expenditure
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WBM Continued expansion of the stockpiles and
reclaiming capacity at the jetty and the intermediate crushing facility are progressing well and are anticipated to be completed in the 1Q12
Muji Line Commissioned the construction of a KFT-2 in
2Q11 with completion scheduled in 3Q12 KFT-2 constructed by Teraoka in China under
the supervision of an independent consultant, who are also supervising the KFT-1 refit
KFT-2 is a slightly larger version of the KFT-1 and is planned to cater for the future increase from the Tabang/Pakar concessions
KFT-1 is being re-certified and upgraded. Modification work is completed
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Appendix
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Recent Acquisition
Bayan Resources effectively controls 56% of KRL and its subsidiaries and has appointed four non executive directors to the Board of Directors of KRL
On the 28 July 2011, the Company fully drew down the US$ 185 million Bridge Facility provided by ANZ/SCB to fund the partial completion of the IBU/KRL transaction
On the 24 August 2011, the Company paid for 100% of the equity of one IUP and 99% of the equity of 5 IUP’s along with the related assets; the remaining 3 IUP’s await final regulatory approved which will then allow the Company to pay the remaining balances
The initial purchase of a controlling stake in the 6 IUP’s has received regulatory approval and the equity has been transferred to KRL, in return for a controlling stake in KRL
PT. Bayan Resources Tbk
BayanConcessions
GPK Concession
PakarConcessions
MamahakConcessions
Reserves : 459.1 million MTResources : 991.7 million MT
Reserves : 442.0 million MTResources : 3,146.0 million MT
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Concession Sites
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Bayan Group
SABAHBRUNEI
SARAWAK
KALIMANTAN
Pontianak
BanjarmasinWahana
Balikpapan Coal Terminal
Tabang/PakarTeguh / Firman
Gunungbayan
Perkasa Inakakerta
GPKMamahak
Mines Concession Location Contractor
Gunungbayan (GBP) 2nd Gen CCOW East Kalimantan Buma / Petrosea
Wahana (WBM) 3rd Gen CCOW South Kalimantan Leighton
Teguh (TSA) 3rd Gen CCOW East Kalimantan Thiess
Firman (FKP) 3rd Gen CCOW East Kalimantan Thiess
Perkasa (PIK) 3rd Gen CCOW East Kalimantan Buma / Hareda
Tabang 3 x IUP East Kalimantan Owner Mining
Pakar 9 x IUP East Kalimantan Not in Production
Mamahak 4 x IUP East Kalimantan PPA
Graha Panca Karsa (GPK) IUP East Kalimantan Not in Production
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Definitions
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PT Gunungbayan Pratamacoal GBP
PT Perkasa Inakakerta PIK
PT Wahana Baratama Mining WBM
PT Teguh Sinarabadi / PT Firman Ketaun Perkasa TSA / FKP
PT Fajar Sakti Prima / PT Bara Tabang / PT Brian Anjat Sentosa FTB
PT Leighton Contractors Indonesia Leighton
PT Thiess Contractor Indonesia Thiess
Average Selling Price ASP
Gross as Received GAR
Estimate E
Forecast / Budget Figure F
Bank Cubic Metre BCM
Metric Tonne MT
Kilocalorie per kilogram kcal / kg
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Disclaimer
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on assumptions and forecasts made by PT. BayanResources Tbk management. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections, and speak only as of the date they are made. We undertake no obligation to update any of them in light of new information or future events.
These forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and are subject to a number of uncertainties, including trends in demand and prices for coal generally and for our products in particular, the success of our mining activities, both alone and with our partners, the changes in coal industry regulation, the availability of funds for planned expansion efforts, as well as other factors. We caution you that these and a number of other known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could cause actual future results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement.
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Thank You
For more information, please contact :
Investor Relations
Jocelle ConcioInvestor Relations [email protected]
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