BAY COUNTY EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM
Transcript of BAY COUNTY EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM
www.loomissayles.com | One Financial Center Boston, MA 02111617 482-2450 | BOSTON DETROIT SAN FRANCISCO LONDON SINGAPORE
BAY COUNTY EMPLOYEESRETIREMENT SYSTEM
PRESENTED BY:Todd Needham, CFAVP, Client Portfolio Manager
October 17, 2017
loomis sayles at a glance
As of 6/30/2017. *Includes the assets of both Loomis, Sayles & Co., LP, and Loomis Sayles Trust Company, LLC. ($20.1 billion for the Loomis Sayles Trust Company). Loomis Sayles Trust Company is a wholly owned subsidiary of Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. **As of 12/31/2016. 283 investment professionals. 82% of CFA charterholders are investment professionals and 18% are non-investment professionals.
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A RICH INVESTMENT TRADITION WHAT DEFINES US
Serving clients with integrity since 1926 Core attributes: integrity, transparency and a team-oriented culture
$257.6 billion assets under management* Rigorous fundamental analysis complemented by robust macro and market insight
Expertise across all major asset classes Portfolio managers, strategists, research analysts and traders collaborating to identify our best ideas
75% of investment professionals dedicated to research & trading; 159 CFA® charterholders**
Small, accountable product teams implementing portfolio decisions
Global perspective: investors in Boston, San Francisco, Detroit, London and Singapore
Disciplined risk awareness integrated into a high conviction investment process
$257.6 US billion
WHERE WE INVEST AUM BY GLOBAL ACCOUNTS
US retail ($70.9 b)
US institutional ($120.4 b)
Non-US institutional ($60.5 b)
Non-US retail ($5.9 b)
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A SOUND PHILOSOPHY
A RIGOROUS, REPEATABLE PROCESS
PROPRIETARY RESEARCH
DISCIPLINED PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT
a common foundation lies at the heart of all our investment strategies
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deep insight fuels our pursuit of alpha
As of 6/30/2017; Years experience indicates industry experience. FO0118 MALR016803
MACRO STRATEGIES CREDIT RESEARCH QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH
& RISK ANALYSIS TRADING
• Director 37 years experience • Associate Director/Senior Global
Macro Strategist 22 years experience • Senior Equity Strategist 32 years experience • Economist
37 years experience • Senior Commodities Analyst
9 years experience • 2 Research Analysts
8 years experience
• Director 34 years experience • 32 Senior Credit Analysts 19 years average experience • 7 Credit Analysts 8 years average experience • 6 Research Associates • 9 Research Assistants • Proprietary credit rating system
since the 1930s
• 2 Associate Directors 21 years average experience • Quantitative Strategist 22 years experience • Senior Strategist, LDI & Solutions 11 years experience • 3 Senior Quantitative Analysts
14 years average experience • 7 Quantitative Analysts
6 years average experience
• Head of Trading 29 years experience • 4 Trading Directors 24 years average experience • 34 Traders (incl. 4 directors above) 16 years average experience • Dir. of Portfolio Implementation 11 years experience • 19 Portfolio Specialists 20 years average experience • Dir. of Operational Trading Risk Mgmt. 16 years experience • Risk Analyst 10 years experience • 10 distinct asset class teams
SOVEREIGN RESEARCH MORTGAGE & STRUCTURED
FINANCE CONVERTIBLES & SPECIAL
SITUATIONS EQUITY RESEARCH
• 5 Senior Sovereign Analysts 17 years average experience • 2 Analysts 7 years average experience • 2 Research Associates
• Director 20 years experience • 3 Strategists 19 years average experience • 4 Senior Analysts 18 years average experience • Senior Portfolio Analyst 9 years experience • Research Analyst
6 years experience • Research Associate
• Director 32 years experience • 5 Senior Research Analysts 16 years average experience • Research Analyst 6 years experience
• 22 Senior Analysts 20 years average experience • 6 Analysts 7 years average experience
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comprehensive expertise
As of 6/30/2017. Due to rounding, pie chart total may not equal 100%. Sector level assets include all accrued interest, cash and unrealized gain/loss on currency forwards. Other includes municipals, cash & equivalents, and derivatives. Includes the assets of both Loomis, Sayles & Co., LP, and Loomis Sayles Trust Company LLC.
Investment Grade
Corporates 28%
Equities 20%
Developed Country
Treasuries 14%
High Yield Corporates
11%
Mortgage & Structured
Finance 9%
Emerging Market Debt
7%
Bank Loans 4%
Other 3%
Government Related
2% Convertible Bonds
2% By Global Sector
Assets ($ Millions)
Investment Grade Corporates 73,799
Equities 51,283
Developed Country Treasuries 36,072
High Yield Corporates 28,775
Mortgage & Structured Finance 24,297
Emerging Market Debt 17,259
Bank Loans 11,462
Other 7,406
Government Related 4,380
Convertible Bonds 4,121
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our investment platform
As of 6/30/2017. * Co-managed investment strategy
MIKE GILES Chief Investment Risk Officer
JAE PARK Chief Investment Officer
DAVID WALDMAN Deputy CIO
GLOBAL EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES GROWTH
LARGE CAP CORE
SMALL CAP GROWTH
SMALL CAP VALUE VALUE
Global Equity & Income
Global Equity Opportunities
All Cap Growth
Global Growth
Large Cap Growth
Long/Short Equity
Large Cap Core Small Cap Growth
Small/Mid Cap Growth
Small Cap Value
Small/Mid Cap Core
Dividend Income
Focused Value
Large Cap Value
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ALPHA STRATEGIES BANK LOANS
DISCIPLINED ALPHA
EMERGING MARKET DEBT
FULL DISCRETION GLOBAL
RELATIVE RETURN
MORTGAGE & STRUCTURED
FINANCE
Credit Long/Short
Credit Asset
World Credit Asset
Multi-Asset Income
Senior Loans
Senior Floating Rate and Fixed Income
Credit Opportunities
Core
Corporate
Long Corporate
Long Credit
Global Disciplined Alpha*
Corporate
Local Currency
Short Duration
Hard/Local Currency Blend
Multisector
Core Plus
High Yield Full Discretion
Global High Yield
US High Yield
High Yield Conservative
Strategic Alpha
Global Bond
Global Credit
Global Debt Unconstrained
Global Disciplined Alpha*
Short Duration
Inter. Duration
Core
Core Plus
IG Corporate
Long Corporate
Long Credit
Long Gov’t/Credit
Custom LDI
Agency MBS
Investment Grade
Securitized Credit (ERISA)
High Yield
Private Debt and Equity
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product overview HIGHLY EXPERIENCED, SEASONED TEAM
As of 6/30/2017.
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PRODUCT TEAM CAROL EMBREE, CFA Portfolio Manager
RICK RACZKOWSKI Portfolio Manager
KURT WAGNER, CFA, CIC Portfolio Manager
Yrs of industry experience: 32 28 39
Yrs with firm: 32 16 23
GENE MORRISON, CFA Product Manager
EJ TATEOSIAN, CFA Product Manager
KRISTY HERGRUETER Assoc. Product Manager
MICHAEL MCDADE, CFA Investment Grade
Sector Analyst PRAMILA AGRAWAL, PhD, CFA
Strategist
Yrs of industry experience: 22 19 7 18 10
Yrs with firm: 3 1 5 11 9
DAN PLOFSKY, CFA Portfolio Specialist
DAN CONKLIN, CFA Investment Analyst
ANNA WANG Investment Analyst
JEFF BIENIEK Investment Associate
MICHAEL CROWELL Assoc. Director,
Fixed Income QRRA
Yrs of industry experience: 18 7 5 4 12
Yrs with firm: 18 5 2 3 10
FIRMWIDE RESOURCES Investment Grade Sector Team P. Agrawal N. Burke J. DeVoy C. Embree B. Kennedy M. McDade J. McIntosh R. Raczkowski L. Royer S. Service D. Simmons K. Wagner
Credit Research Director 32 Senior Analysts 7 Analysts 6 Research Associates 9 Research Assistants
Convertibles & Special Situations Director 5 Senior Analysts Research Analyst
Quant. Research & Risk Analysis 2 Associate Directors Quantitative Strategist Senior Strategist, LDI & Solutions 3 Senior Quantitative Analysts 7 Quantitative Analysts
Fixed Income Trading 28 Traders/TAs Director, Portfolio Implementation 16 Portfolio Specialists Director, Operational Trading Risk Mgt. Risk Analyst
Macro Strategies Director Assoc. Director/ Senior Global Macro Strategist Senior Equity Strategist Economist Senior Commodities Analyst 2 Research Analysts
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guideline summary
Benchmark
• Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade Bond Index
Limitations
• Credit Quality: Account may not hold more than 10% MV in securities rated below Moody or S&P Baa3/BBB-. The highestrating will govern split rated securities. Account may not hold any securities with a Moody or S&P rating below B3/B-, attime of purchase. Downgrades below B3/B- can be held if advantageous.
• Issuer: Account may not hold more than 5% MV in any one Issuer, excluding US Treasuries, Govt agencies and GSE's.
• Issue: Account may not hold more than 5% of the outstanding fixed income obligations of any one issue, excluding USGovernment and Agency securities.
• Country: Account may not purchase foreign fixed income securities, excluding Yankee Bonds. This includes all non-USDdenominated securities.
• Duration: +/- 1 year relative to the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade Bond Index.
• Account may not invest in securities issued by Bay County.
Guideline summary is not a complete restatement of guidelines. The slide is intended to be a summary to aid in the review process.
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performanceTRAILING RETURNS AS OF 09/30/2017 (%)
QTD YTD 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 5 Years 10 YearsSince
Inception01/31/1997
Excess Return (Gross) 0.23 0.72 0.78 1.03 0.53 0.86 0.85 0.66
PORTFOLIO VALUATION (USD)
Portfolio
Total 40,342,438
Benchmarks: Citigroup Broad Inv-Grade (BIG) ( 01/31/1997 - 06/30/1999 ). BBG BARC Credit ( 06/30/1999 - 02/29/2012 ). BBG BARC U.S. Corporate Investment Grade ( 02/29/2012 - 09/30/2017 ).The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 20179
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performanceCALENDAR YEAR RETURNS AS OF 09/30/2017 (%)
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Excess Return (Gross) 1.07 -0.05 0.63 1.14 2.50 0.26 2.43 7.35 -5.24 -0.84
Benchmarks: Citigroup Broad Inv-Grade (BIG) ( 01/31/1997 - 06/30/1999 ). BBG BARC Credit ( 06/30/1999 - 02/29/2012 ). BBG BARC U.S. Corporate Investment Grade ( 02/29/2012 - 09/30/2017 ).The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201710
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performance attribution by sector12/31/2016 TO 09/30/2017 (%)
TOTAL RETURNS
Total Return
Portfolio Return 5.91
Benchmark Return 5.19
Excess Return 0.72
Figures on the bar chart may not add up to total excess return as they exclude impact of trading and pricing differences. Excess Return by sector excludes yield curve impact. Values shown include impact of hedging if utilized. Unless otherwisenoted, the performance shown is gross of management fees.The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201711
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attribution analysis12/31/2016 TO 09/30/2017 (%)
Sector Distribution PortfolioFinal Weight
BenchmarkFinal Weight
PortfolioAverageWeight
BenchmarkAverageWeight
PortfolioReturn
BenchmarkReturn Total Effect
Cash & Equivalents 0.35 0.00 0.90 0.00 0.63 5.19 -0.03US Treasuries 0.28 0.00 2.81 0.00 -1.19 5.19 -0.07Agencies 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 13.49 5.19 0.01Gov Related 1.09 0.00 0.85 0.00 10.40 5.19 0.02IG Corporate 91.93 100.00 89.49 100.00 5.83 5.19 0.46
IG - Financials 36.70 31.40 35.83 31.39 4.69 4.80 0.04IG - Industrials 52.56 61.73 51.56 61.46 6.45 5.35 0.34IG - Utilities 2.67 6.87 2.10 7.15 9.99 5.61 0.08
HY Corporate 6.35 0.00 5.81 0.00 9.51 5.19 0.29HY - Financials 1.36 0.00 1.56 0.00 11.08 5.19 0.10HY - Industrials 4.68 0.00 3.85 0.00 9.01 5.19 0.18HY - Utilities 0.31 0.00 0.41 0.00 8.17 5.19 0.01
Total Effects are impacted by sector returns and allocation shifts. Returns reflect the entire period. Total Effect excludes yield curve impact. Values shown include impact of hedging if utilized. Unless otherwise noted, the performance shown isgross of management fees.The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201712
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attribution analysis12/31/2016 TO 09/30/2017 (%)
Figures on the bar chart may not add up to total excess return as they exclude impact of trading and pricing differences. Excess Return by sector excludes yield curve impact. Values shown include impact of hedging if utilized. Unless otherwisenoted, the performance shown is gross of management fees.The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201713
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portfolio summary12/31/2016 TO 09/30/2017
PORTFOLIO SUMMARY
12/31/2016 09/30/2017
Portfolio Benchmark Difference Portfolio Benchmark Difference
Yield to Worst (%) 3.55 3.34 0.22 3.36 3.14 0.22
Maturity (years) 10.79 10.55 0.24 10.99 10.76 0.23
Effective Duration (years) 7.40 7.23 0.17 7.67 7.50 0.18
Coupon (%) 4.10 4.07 0.04 4.02 4.00 0.03
Average Quality BAA1 A3 - BAA1 A3 -
OAS (bps) 139 121 18 119 101 18
QUALITY SUMMARY (% OF TOTAL MARKET VALUE)
12/31/2016 09/30/2017
Portfolio Benchmark Difference Portfolio Benchmark Difference
AAA 4.17 2.17 2.00 2.20 2.48 -0.28
AA 7.82 15.13 -7.31 8.33 13.89 -5.56
A 38.20 40.01 -1.82 36.56 38.81 -2.25
BAA 44.11 42.63 1.47 47.51 44.83 2.68
BA 5.55 0.03 5.52 5.17 0.00 5.17
B & Below 0.17 0.00 0.17 0.23 0.00 0.23
NR 0.00 0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
OAS is option adjusted spread.Client Guideline Quality Methodology presented.The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201714
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sector allocation12/31/2016 TO 09/30/2017 (% OF TOTAL MARKET VALUE)
12/31/2016 09/30/2017
Portfolio Benchmark Difference Portfolio Benchmark Difference
Agencies 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cash & Equivalents 0.13 0.00 0.13 0.35 0.00 0.35
Gov Related 0.42 0.00 0.42 1.09 0.00 1.09
HY Corporate 6.18 0.02 6.15 6.35 0.00 6.35
HY - Financials 1.73 0.00 1.73 1.36 0.00 1.36
HY - Industrials 4.02 0.02 4.00 4.68 0.00 4.68
HY - Utilities 0.42 0.00 0.42 0.31 0.00 0.31
IG Corporate 90.16 99.98 -9.82 91.93 100.00 -8.07
IG - Financials 35.29 31.28 4.01 36.70 31.40 5.30
IG - Industrials 52.88 60.99 -8.11 52.56 61.73 -9.16
IG - Utilities 1.99 7.71 -5.72 2.67 6.87 -4.20
US Treasuries 2.98 0.00 2.98 0.28 0.00 0.28
The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201715
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sector allocation12/31/2016 TO 09/30/2017 (% OF TOTAL MARKET VALUE)
The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201716
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beta historyAS OF 09/30/2017
Relative Credit Excess Return Beta captures the excess return sensitivity of credit holdings to excess returns of the credit index.The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201717
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maturity & duration break-downAS OF 09/30/2017
The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201718
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appendix - industry level 4AS OF 09/30/2017
09/30/2017
Portfolio % Benchmark % Relative CTB %
Cash 0.35 0.00 0.000Financial Institutions 38.06 31.40 0.038
Banking 29.81 22.77 0.027Brokerage Asset Managers 0.00 0.87 -0.007Finance Companies 1.61 1.02 0.009Financial Other 0.84 0.02 0.007Insurance 5.12 4.29 0.018
Life 2.43 1.48 0.009P&C 1.64 1.69 0.012Health Insurance 1.06 1.12 -0.003
Reits 0.67 2.44 -0.016Office Reits 0.00 0.27 -0.002Retail Reits 0.46 0.77 -0.003Apartment Reits 0.00 0.32 -0.003Healthcare Reits 0.21 0.60 -0.004Other Reits 0.00 0.48 -0.004
Industrial 57.24 61.73 0.080Basic Industry 3.56 3.34 0.019
Metals And Mining 1.51 1.12 0.008Paper 0.45 0.52 0.003Chemicals 1.60 1.70 0.009
Capital Goods 6.68 4.78 0.028Aerospace/Defense 2.59 1.18 0.010Building Materials 1.08 0.31 0.008Diversified Manufacturing 2.35 2.29 0.005Packaging 0.00 0.04 0.000Construction Machinery 0.66 0.75 0.007Environmental 0.00 0.22 -0.001
Communications 7.27 9.79 -0.006Media Entertainment 2.08 2.32 -0.003Cable Satellite 1.43 1.83 0.003Wireless 0.55 0.96 -0.004Wirelines 3.21 4.68 -0.002
Consumer Cyclical 7.98 7.47 0.025Automotive 3.94 2.40 0.010Home Construction 0.48 0.06 0.011Lodging 0.28 0.15 0.001Consumer Cyclical 1.41 1.42 0.007Leisure 0.00 0.04 0.000Restaurants 0.19 0.43 -0.001Retailers 1.67 2.99 -0.003
09/30/2017
Portfolio % Benchmark % Relative CTB %
Consumer Non Cyclical 12.64 15.94 0.016Tobacco 1.85 1.22 0.007Supermarkets 0.10 0.29 -0.001Consumer Products 0.74 1.01 -0.001Healthcare 2.87 3.32 0.008Food And Beverage 3.09 4.28 0.008Pharmaceuticals 3.99 5.83 -0.004
Energy 7.75 9.44 -0.040Independent 4.25 2.04 0.017Refining 0.64 0.47 -0.002Oil Field Services 0.17 0.38 -0.003Integrated 1.52 2.72 -0.004Midstream 1.17 3.83 -0.048
Industrial Other 0.73 0.36 0.004Technology 5.56 8.51 0.007Transportation 5.07 2.12 0.027
Airlines 2.76 0.37 0.013Transportation Services 1.13 0.47 0.010Railroads 1.19 1.28 0.004
Utility 2.98 6.87 -0.024Electric 2.66 6.30 -0.022Natural Gas 0.32 0.46 0.000Utility Other 0.00 0.12 -0.002
Agencies 0.60 0.00 0.016Owned No Guarantee 0.60 0.00 0.016
Sovereign 0.49 0.00 0.008Treasuries 0.28 0.00 0.000
The industry breakout in this chart utilizes the Barclays Industry Level 4 scheme, which may differ from other sector breakouts in the presentation material, due to different methodologies. Relative CTB is relative contribution to beta.The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201719
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appendix - country of riskAS OF 09/30/2017
09/30/2017
Portfolio % Benchmark % Relative CTB %
WB Developed 99.20 98.78 0.113Americas 76.32 85.54 0.029
Bermuda 0.23 0.09 0.007Canada 2.08 3.14 0.000Chile 0.29 0.08 0.003United States 73.72 82.23 0.019
Asia 2.75 1.01 0.017Hong Kong 0.49 0.00 0.005Japan 2.26 0.99 0.012South Korea 0.00 0.01 0.000
Europe / Non-Eurozone 8.11 5.81 0.020Norway 0.42 0.00 0.008Sweden 0.00 0.25 0.000Switzerland 1.11 1.12 0.003United Kingdom 6.58 4.44 0.010
Eurozone Core 8.67 4.48 0.033Belgium 1.37 1.50 0.009Finland 0.35 0.00 0.006France 3.14 0.90 0.010Germany 1.46 0.48 0.002Luxembourg 0.26 0.00 0.002Netherlands 2.10 1.59 0.003
Eurozone Periphery 0.18 0.45 -0.001Ireland 0.00 0.01 0.000Italy 0.00 0.05 0.000Spain 0.18 0.39 -0.001
Middle East 1.37 0.32 0.013Israel 0.88 0.32 0.005Saudi Arabia 0.49 0.00 0.008
Oceania 1.79 1.17 0.002Australia 1.79 1.17 0.002
09/30/2017
Portfolio % Benchmark % Relative CTB %
EM 0.80 1.22 0.004Africa 0.00 0.02 0.000
South Africa 0.00 0.02 0.000Americas 0.80 0.95 0.006
Brazil 0.80 0.43 0.016Colombia 0.00 0.02 0.000Mexico 0.00 0.37 -0.006Peru 0.00 0.14 -0.004
Asia 0.00 0.25 -0.002China 0.00 0.25 -0.002
NON-USD EXPOSURE
09/30/2017
Portfolio % Benchmark %Total Non-USD 0.00 0.00
Relative CTB is relative contribution to beta.The current benchmark is Bloomberg Barclays Corporate.
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution September 30, 201720
Data as of 8/7/2017: Loomis Sayles Macro Strategies Group. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The forecasted views and opinions expressed reflect those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Loomis, Sayles & Company L.P. All statements are made as of the date of the presentation and are subject to change at any time without notice.
THE ECONOMIC EXECUTION WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR IS NOW OCCURRING
WITH THE GLOBAL ECONOMY ON MORE SURE FOOTING, OPTIMISM REMAINS HIGH • A widely expected twenty five basis point Fed Funds rate hike took place last
June, and balance sheet run off is expected to begin in early October 2017. • We believe a September pause in the Fed’s hiking cycle is likely as the
framework for balance sheet run off is more formally announced. • Gradually increasing caps on the US dollar amount of securities allowed to roll
off the balance sheet should have minimal impact on treasury yields over time. • Although in the fairly distant future, we find the Fed’s method of balance sheet
reduction a likely framework for other central banks that have engaged in QE to begin removing accommodation.
FED LAYING THE FRAMEWORK FOR REMOVING ACCOMODATION
U.S. REAL GDP SHOULD REMAIN STABLE HEADING INTO 2018 • On a year over year basis real economic growth in the United States is expected
to remain decent albeit at slightly slower rates than past expansions. • Single family housing starts should rise steadily throughout next year. • The unemployment rate may slowly move below the historical NAIRU, non
accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, which is between 4.0% and 5%. • The labor force participation rate has risen a bit, but is likely to level off over the
coming quarters as nonfarm payroll growth begins to moderate. • Annual productivity growth, measured by output per hour worked, is expected
to improve marginally over the next twelve months. • Headline inflation is expected to rise this year but declines to 1.9% in 2018.
• The US corporate profits recession ended during the fourth quarter of 2016 and profits are estimated to grow throughout the remainder of this year and next, providing an important tailwind to credit markets.
• A corporate tax cut, regulation rollbacks and slightly better nominal GDP would likely provide an additional boost to corporate profits in 2018.
• Late cycle leverage trends persist but the overall credit trend is largely stable as most corporates inch further along within the expansion phase of this cycle.
• Three commodity centric industries, independent energy, metals & mining, and pipelines/MLP’s, are now firmly in the credit repair phase.
macroeconomic environment and outlook
• Manufacturing PMI indicators in developed and emerging market countries have stabilized and remain at levels consistent with economic expansion.
• GDP growth and inflation measures have improved modestly around the world, but economic fundamentals do not suggest a sharp rate rise is imminent.
• For the first time in many years, Washington could prove to be a positive source of corporate earnings catalysts in the quarters ahead.
• Although business sentiment and consumer confidence have improved, it is unlikely that new fiscal policies will meaningfully enhance bottom line U.S. GDP until 2018.
YEAR-END FORECAST US DOMESTIC GLOBAL WESTERN EUROPE ASIA PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
REAL GDP GROWTH 2.2% 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 1.7% 1.5% 5.4% 5.2% 1.4% 2.0% HEADLINE CPI INFLATION 2.0% 1.9% 3.1% 2.9% 1.6% 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 6.5% 5.3% CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (% GDP) -2.6% -3.3% - - 2.8% 2.7% 1.6% 1.5% -2.1% -2.2% INTEREST RATES (10-YEAR); END OF YEAR 2.5% 3.3% - - - - - - - -
Figures shown are estimates and are subject to change at any time.
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Data source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg.
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8/31/2015 0.00% 0.23% 0.38% 0.74% 1.55% 2.22% 2.96%
8/31/2016 0.33% 0.46% 0.59% 0.81% 1.20% 1.58% 2.23%
8/31/2017 0.99% 1.07% 1.22% 1.33% 1.70% 2.12% 2.73%
Yield Change (bps.) 99 84 84 59 15 -10 -24
Annualized Total Return (%)
8/31/2015 - 8/31/2017 0.45 0.72 0.71 0.58 1.18 1.93 4.26
bond market environment HISTORICAL US TREASURY YIELD CURVES
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Data source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg.
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2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Yiel
d (%
)
Maturity (years)
12/31/2016 8/31/2017
3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year 30 Year
12/31/2016 0.50% 0.61% 0.81% 1.19% 1.93% 2.44% 3.07%
8/31/2017 0.99% 1.07% 1.22% 1.33% 1.70% 2.12% 2.73%
Yield Change (bps.) 49 46 41 14 -23 -33 -34
Total Return (%)
12/31/2016 - 8/31/2017 0.50 0.63 0.53 0.73 2.25 4.07 8.58
bond market environment HISTORICAL US TREASURY YIELD CURVES
23
2.65 3.05 1.04 1.67 1.503.60 4.67
7.89
12.78
15.81
31.46
3.64 4.083.15 2.55 3.04 4.53 5.14
6.18 6.145.24
7.53
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Agg.
G/C UST
MBS
Aaa Aa A
Baa Ba B
Caa
Retu
rns
(%)
2016 2017
bond market environment US MARKET RETURNS BY QUALITY 2016 VS 2017 YTD
Data Source: Barclays Capital Index Returns. Information through 8/31/2017. 24
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Au
g-00
Dec-
00Ap
r-01
Aug-
01
Dec-
01Ap
r-02
Aug-
02
Dec-
02Ap
r-03
Aug-
03
Dec-
03
Apr-
04
Aug-
04
Dec-
04Ap
r-05
Aug-
05
Dec-
05Ap
r-06
Aug-
06
Dec-
06Ap
r-07
Aug-
07
Dec-
07
Apr-
08
Aug-
08
Dec-
08Ap
r-09
Aug-
09
Dec-
09Ap
r-10
Aug-
10
Dec-
10Ap
r-11
Aug-
11
Dec-
11
Apr-
12
Aug-
12
Dec-
12Ap
r-13
Aug-
13
Dec-
13Ap
r-14
Aug-
14
Dec-
14Ap
r-15
Aug-
15
Dec-
15
Apr-
16
Aug-
16
Dec-
16Ap
r-17
Aug-
17
bps
U.S Credit - OAS U.S. Credit A - OAS U.S. Credit Baa - OAS U.S. Corporate High Yield - OAS
Source: Barclays Capital, OAS data through 08/31/2017. We believe this information to be reliable but do not guarantee it’s accuracy. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
MTD Total Return
YTD Total Return
Total Return 3 Month
Excess Return 3 Month
Excess Return YTD
U.S. Credit 0.84 5.31 1.84 0.56 1.60U.S. Credit A 0.93 5.14 1.91 0.58 1.25U.S. Credit Baa 0.76 6.18 2.00 0.65 2.27U.S. Corporate High Yield (0.04) 6.05 1.20 0.51 3.86U.S. Long Term Credit 1.46 8.91 3.36 0.85 1.99U.S. Intermediate Agg. 0.65 2.74 0.85 0.10 0.37U.S. Intermediate Credit 0.57 3.82 1.19 0.45 1.45U.S. Aggregate 0.90 3.64 1.23 0.16 0.49
bond market environment OAS & EXCESS RETURN IN THE RECENT MARKET
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Aug-
01
Feb-
02
Aug-
02
Feb-
03
Aug-
03
Feb-
04
Aug-
04
Feb-
05
Aug-
05
Feb-
06
Aug-
06
Feb-
07
Aug-
07
Feb-
08
Aug-
08
Feb-
09
Aug-
09
Feb-
10
Aug-
10
Feb-
11
Aug-
11
Feb-
12
Aug-
12
Feb-
13
Aug-
13
Feb-
14
Aug-
14
Feb-
15
Aug-
15
Feb-
16
Aug-
16
Feb-
17
Aug-
17
IG Corporates 10yr Avg 15yr Avg
8/31/2017 10 Yr Average 15 Yr AverageCurrent Spread to
10 Yr AvgCurrent Spread to
15 Yr AvgIG Financials 101 217 175 (116) (73)IG Industrials 116 170 153 (55) (38)IG Utilities 105 173 154 (68) (49)
IG Corporates 110 188 161 (78) (51)
Source: Barclays Capital; data through 8/31/2017.
bond market environment INVESTMENT GRADE SECTOR SPREADS
26
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700Au
g-01
Aug-
02
Aug-
03
Aug-
04
Aug-
05
Aug-
06
Aug-
07
Aug-
08
Aug-
09
Aug-
10
Aug-
11
Aug-
12
Aug-
13
Aug-
14
Aug-
15
Aug-
16
Aug-
17
OAS
(bps
)
US Corp IG 10yr avg 15yr avg
8/31/201710 Yr
Average15 Yr
AverageCurrent Spread
to 10 Yr AvgCurrent Spread to
15 Yr AvgUS Corp IG 110 188 161 (77) (51)
Aaa 67 94 84 (27) (17)Aa 65 125 105 (60) (39)A 87 167 143 (80) (55)
Baa 139 234 206 (95) (67)Data source: Barclays Capital. Averages computed by Loomis Sayles. Data through 08/31/2017.
bond market environment US HIGH GRADE CORPORATE SPREADS
27
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Aug-
01
Aug-
02
Aug-
03
Aug-
04
Aug-
05
Aug-
06
Aug-
07
Aug-
08
Aug-
09
Aug-
10
Aug-
11
Aug-
12
Aug-
13
Aug-
14
Aug-
15
Aug-
16
Aug-
17
basis
poi
nts
LT Credit 10yr Avg 15yr Avg
Data source: Barclays Capital. Averages computed by Loomis Sayles. Data through 08/31/2017.
8/31/201710 Yr
Average15 Yr
AverageCurrent Spread
to 10 Yr AvgCurrent Spread
to 15 Yr AvgLT Credit 161 207 182 (46) (22)
LT Aaa 88 105 94 (17) (6)LT Aa 111 150 124 (38) (13)LT A 130 188 161 (58) (32)
LT Baa 200 248 224 (48) (24)
bond market environment LONG TERM CREDIT SPREADS
28
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Re
its
Fina
nce
Brok
erag
e
Insu
ranc
e
Basi
c In
dust
ry
Bank
ing
Nat
ural
Gas
Cons
umer
Cyc
lical
Com
mun
catio
ns
Tran
spor
tatio
n
Tech
nolo
gy
Elec
tric
Ener
gy
Capi
tal
Goo
ds
Cons
umer
Non
cycl
ical
bps
August 31, 2017 OAS June 30, 2007 OAS 10-Yr Range
bond market environment US IG CREDIT SECTORS: CURRENT SPREAD LEVELS VS. 10-YR HIGH AND LOW
Data source: Barclays Capital, history through 08/31/2017. 29
167
194
151
137
90
68
9887 90
131 127
147
236
283
168
115127
111 113
296
218
68 77
9280
59
89
108
21
82
4956 52
67
89
105116
99108 107 109 104
40 42
5867
8187
59
33
53
7066
76
120 115
54
19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Dow
ngra
de/U
pgra
de R
atio
# of
Upg
rade
s &
Dow
ngra
des
Each
Yea
r
Downgrades
Upgrades
Downgrade/Upgrade Ratio
bond market environment US INVESTMENT GRADE CREDIT QUALITY TRENDS
Yearly Data. Source: Moodys, history through June 30, 2017. 30
175
241
201
9064
92123
97114
226
317 325
409370
336
252 272
303
421
716
812
243
312
375370
303
438
557
189
57 50 6484 97 94 100
167 167 153137
100 11592
178
258246
274298
199
357 363326 329
299 284 298
257
168
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Dow
ngra
de/U
pgra
de R
atio
# of
Upg
rade
s &
Dow
ngra
des
Each
Yea
r
Downgrades
Upgrades
Downgrade/Upgrade Ratio
Yearly Data. Source: Moodys, history through June 30, 2017.
bond market environment US HIGH YIELD CREDIT QUALITY TRENDS
31
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Jul-8
2
Jul-8
3
Jul-8
4
Jul-8
5
Jul-8
6
Jul-8
7
Jul-8
8
Jul-8
9
Jul-9
0
Jul-9
1
Jul-9
2
Jul-9
3
Jul-9
4
Jul-9
5
Jul-9
6
Jul-9
7
Jul-9
8
Jul-9
9
Jul-0
0
Jul-0
1
Jul-0
2
Jul-0
3
Jul-0
4
Jul-0
5
Jul-0
6
Jul-0
7
Jul-0
8
Jul-0
9
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Trailing 12 month US Speculative Grade Issuer Default Rates Baseline Forecast
bond market environment US SPECULATIVE GRADE DEFAULT TRENDS
Source: Moodys, history through July 2017. Moodys Forecast through July 2018. 32
0
500
1000
1500
2000Au
g-07
Feb-
08
Aug-
08
Feb-
09
Aug-
09
Feb-
10
Aug-
10
Feb-
11
Aug-
11
Feb-
12
Aug-
12
Feb-
13
Aug-
13
Feb-
14
Aug-
14
Feb-
15
Aug-
15
Feb-
16
Aug-
16
Feb-
17
Aug-
17
bps
High Yield OAS Investment Grade OAS US IG 10-Year Average US High Yield 10-Year Average
bond market environment US INVESTMENT GRADE AND HIGH YIELD OPTION-ADJUSTED SPREADS
Data source: Barclays Capital, history through 08/31/2017. 33
Bay
Cou
nty
Empl
oyee
s Ret
Sys
tem
contactsRELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Todd Needham, CFA
Client Portfolio Manager
617-960-2092
Albert Wong
Client Portfolio Analyst
617-960-4490
Carrie Cameron
Administrative Assistant
617-535-5403
John Trydahl
Institutional Services
312-339-2726 (cell)
Sources: Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. and others For Institutional Investor Use Only. Not for Further Distribution34