Basic Tips of Commodity Market
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Transcript of Basic Tips of Commodity Market
09 FEB – 13 FEB 2015
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
MAJOR EVENTS As the India is gearing up for the Union Budget on February 28, buzz is that Arun
Jaitley, Finance Minister, may announce a cut on Import duty on Gold. Media reports
say a 2-4 per cent reduction on Gold import duty can be expected in the upcoming
union budget. The move is likely to bolsrter gold exports and manufacturing of gems
and jewellery. There has been a demand from the industry to slash the customs duty
from the prevalent 10 per cent to two per cent.
Gold imports are declining continuously. Gems and jewellery sector contributes
significantly in the country’s total exports. On account of this, we are expecting a cut
in the import duty. But it is up to the Finance Minister to take the final decision in the
Budget.Nirmala Sitharaman, Commerce and Industry Minister, had hinted that the
jewellery sector can expect some incentives soon in the budget. Arun Jaitley is likely
to present the union budget on February 28 for the 2015/16 fiscal year. As part of its
pre-Union Budget recommendations, All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation
(GJF) had urged thegovernment to bring down the duty on gold from 10% to 2% to
encourage ‘Make in India’ initiative in the gems & jewellery sector.
Crude oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday, continuing a rebound from
near-six-year lows plumbed last week, although no rapid recovery is expected amid
rising global inventories and steady OPEC supply. Prices closed more than 4 per cent
higher on Thursday, pushed up by conflict in producer Libya and expectations of a
boost to oil demand after China's central bank easing. Benchmark Brent crude futures
were $1 higher at $57.57 a barrel at 0741 GMT, after closing up $2.41 on Thursday.
US crude for March delivery was also up $1 at $51.47 a barrel. The contract had
finished up $2.03 the previous day.
Physical demand has been boosted recently by traders storing crude on tankers to
benefit from higher prices for delivery in future months - a market structure known
as contango - and stockpiling by major importing countries such as China and India.
Growing numbers of OPEC delegates say they expect no rapid recovery in oil prices,
even though the market is showing tentative signs of a rally from near-six-year lows.
Late on Thursday top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia cut its monthly oil prices for Asian
buyers to the lowest level in at least 12 years.
US crude extends
rally by $1, but
swelling inventory
drags.
Copper Marginally
Lower In Evening
Trades On MCX.
The prices of Copper are trading marginally lower in the intraday session that is the
last for this week. The prices of Copper were down by Rs 353.25 per kg, compared to
Rs 355.5 per kg on Thursday. The triggers from the global markets have remained
weak for metal. Reserve Bank of Australia said that the economy is expected to grow
at a pace of 2.25 percent to 3.25 percent through December 2015 and 3 percent to 4
percent in the following year. This was less than the previous forecast for 2.5 percent
to 3.5 percent GDP growth in 2015 and 2.75 percent to 4.25 percent in 2016. In US,
initial jobless claims rose to 278000, an increase of 11000 from the previous week's
revised level of 267000. Economists had expected jobless claims to climb to 290000
from the 265000 originally reported for the previous week.
However on the positive front, Germany's industrial production expanded for the
fourth consecutive month in December, but the growth rate weakened, defying
expectations for a faster expansion, as mild weather dampened construction activity.
Industrial output edged up 0.1 percent in December from a month ago, Destatis said
Friday. Production was forecast to rise 0.4 percent after expanding by a revised 0.1
percent in November.
India Budget:
Govt may
consider 2-4%
cut on Gold
import duty.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Feb 09 Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings
8:30pm Labor Market Conditions Index m/m 6.1
Feb 10 Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings
6:50pm FOMC Member Lacker Speaks
7:30pm NFIB Small Business Index 101.3 100.4
8:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 5.03M 4.97M
10th-13th Mortgage Delinquencies 5.85%
8:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 51.4 51.5
8:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.8%
Feb 11 9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 6.3M
11:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 1.93/2.6
Feb 12 12:30am Federal Budget Balance -2.6B 1.9B
7:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m -0.4% -1.0%
7:00pm Retail Sales m/m -0.3% -0.9%
7:00pm Unemployment Claims 279K 278K
8:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.2%
9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -115B
11:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 2.43/2.3
Feb 13 7:00pm Import Prices m/m -3.1% -2.5%
8:30pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.2 98.1
8:30pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.5%
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26615 26130 25680 27070 27450 27840
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
36385 35190 33830 37970 39310 40580
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed sideways
movement apart from last trading
session which showed bearishness due
to US data and test the lower band of
channel pattern at around 26650. Now,
if it is able to break channel pattern on
lower side then 26300 will act as major
support level. On other hand if it
maintains above 27250 then bullish
movement may take it towards the
next resistance range of 28000-28500.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 26600 for the targets of 26000
with stop loss of 27300.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
downward movement last week, not
able to maintain above 39000, drag
and found support around trendline.
Now, if it sustain below 36500 then
next support is seen in the range of
35000-34000. On higher side
maintaining above 38500 will again
lead it towards the resistance level of
40500.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 36500 for
the targets of 35000-34000, with stop
loss of 38500.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
3050 2830 2700 3325 3570 3800
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
346.90 337.25 325 360.85 371 382.50
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
correction on higher side and face
resistance around 360. Now, if it
maintains above 361 then next
resistance will be seen around 370. On
the other hand if bearishness again
become active then it will again drag
upto support level of 343 below which
332 will act as major weekly support
level.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
buy above 3260 for the target of 3435,
with stop loss of 3000.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
bullish movement after making double
bottom pattern on daily chart and also
closed above its important resistance
level i.e. 3140. Now, if it maintains
above trendline then next important
resistance level is seen around 3500.
On the other hand if it sustain below
3100 then again it will darg upto
support level of 2750.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 346, with stop loss of 361 for the
target of 333.
PIVOT TABLE
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