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Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean 1 / 28
Decision Support Systems. Basic Knowledge
Information
Decision
Decision-making process
Decision support systems
Intelligent decision support systems
Expert system
Industry 4.0 - decision
Selective glossary
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Information [Jo Owen, Cum sa fii un bun manager – traducere (How to Manage. The
Art of Making Things Happen), Editura Polirom, 2008]
Not all information is of equal value. There is a hierarchy of
information and power.
The raw data have little value and are available to anyone
The information involves processed data – useful and dangerous.
Processed data can be used by managers in the same way the lawyers
use evidence – rather support their case than discover the truth.
Managers need to be able to quickly transform data into information
and make decisions.
Intelligence is information that is not available anyway and to
anyone.
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The raw data have little value and are available to anyone
The information involves processed data – useful and dangerous.
Processed data can be used by managers in the same way the lawyers
use evidence – rather support their case than discover the truth.
Managers need to be able to quickly transform data into information
and make decisions.
Intelligence is information that is not available anyway and to
anyone.
Essentially, intelligence transforms “what” and “how” from the information
into the “why” and “when” of the decision making process.
What makes information finished intelligence is the analysis of information.
Intelligence
o Intelligence:• the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills
• the collection of information of military/economic/political value
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Decision
Hotărâre luată în urma examinării unei probleme, a unei
situații etc., soluție adoptată (dintre mai multe posibile);
rezoluție. ♦ Hotărâre luată de un organ al administrației de
stat sau de un organ de jurisdicție. [DEX]
A choice that you make about something after thinking
about several possibilities [Cambridge dictionary]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
The brain is responsible...
The neocortex, as the name implies, is the newest addition to our brain and is
considered to be the crowning achievement of evolution and the biological
substrate of human mental prowess.
If any organ of our body should be substantially different from any other
species, it is the cerebral neocortex, the center of extraordinary human
cognitive abilities [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2913577/]
The neocortex
it is located in the front of the head between your temples
it receives and stores information for decision making and remembering
it is involved in higher functions such as sensory perception, generation of motor
commands, spatial reasoning, conscious thought, and in humans, language
it helps us parcel out actions and responses to our environment [https://www.sharecare.com/health/functions-of-the-brain/what-is-the-neocortex]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
The decision is made in the neocortex if it is a free decision.
“free” decision (free will) vs. “right” decision
Situation 1: You are in an exotic country. You have the choice between 2
dishes, both unknown.
A free decision is made if the brain is confronted with a new
situation that it can not associate with experiences or past events.
Situation 2: You are at the pedestrian crossing. A car is approaching to the
right. Do you cross or wait?
Correct decision is taken almost unconsciously and with a minor
involvement of the neocortex because the situation in which the decision
has to be made has been encountered and/or can be associated with past
events.
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Decision Making
Process of choosing amongst alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining one or more goals. [Turban, Sharda, Delen,
Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]
Decision making process involves:
the existence of a problem to be solved => problem formulation multiple ways of action (for only one way – no decision is needed) the existence of one or more goals (destinations, results, etc.)
E.g.: The travelling salesman problem (TSP) "Given a list of cities and the distances between each pair of cities, what is the shortest possible route that visits each city exactly once and returns to the origin city?"
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Managerial Decision Making
o Synonymous with the entire management process
Managerial function of planning involves a series of decisions
what should be done?
when?
where?
why?
how?
by whom?
Managers set goals or plan => planning implies decision making
Other managerial functions (e.g. organizing and controlling)
involve decision making
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Phases of Decision-Making Process
o It is advisable to follow a systematic decision-making process
o Three major phases (H.A. Simon)
intelligence
design
choice
implementation
• monitoring
Intelligence
Design
Choice MonitoringImplementation
o Intelligence:• the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skils
• the collection of information of military/economic/political value
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Intelligence phase
the decision maker examines reality and identifies and defines
the problem
Design phase
a model that represent the system is constructed
making assumption and simplify reality and writing down
the relations among all the variables
the model is validated
Choice phase
selection of the proposed solution
testing the solution
reasonable solution => implementation
Implementation phase
solving the real problem - succes
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
The decision-making/modeling process diagram[Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]
• the decision maker examines
reality and identifies and
defines the problem
• a model that represent the
system is constructed
• making assumption and
simplify reality and writing
down the relations among
all the variables
• the model is validated
• selection of the solution
(reasonable - optimization)
• testing the solution
• solving the real problem - succes
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Decision Suport Systems - definition
”Systems designed to support managerial decision-making in unstructured problems” (E. Turban)
” Interactive, computer-based systems that aid users in
judgment and choice activities.” (M. Druzdzel)
“A conceptual framework for a process of supporting
managerial decision making, usually by modeling problems
and employing quantitative models for solution analysis”.
There is no universally accepted definition!
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Decision Support
Systems – key
characteristics
and capabilities
[Turban, Sharda, Delen,
Decision Support and
Business Intelligence, 9th
edition, Pearson Education
Limited, 2014]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Decision Support Systems – schematic view[Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS)
Definition
• IDSS incorporating knowledge-based methodology, are
designed to aid the decision-making process through a
set of recommendations reflecting domain expertise
(Wang 1997) [1].
• IDSS aim to provide decision makers with timely, useful
and valid information based on some pre-coded domain
knowledge (Burstein and Carlsson 2008)[1].
[1] A. Kaklauskas, Biometric and Intelligent Decision Making Support, Springer, 2015, ISBN 978-3-319-13659-2,
2015
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS).
Definition – cont.
[1] A. Kaklauskas, Biometric and Intelligent Decision Making Support, Springer, 2015, ISBN 978-3-319-13659-2, 2015
S. Viademonte and F. Burstein, “From knowledge discovery to computational intelligence: A framework for intelligent decision support
systems,” Chapter 4 in “Intelligent Decision-making Support Sytems,” Springer-Verlag London Limited, pp. 57-78. 2006
• IDSS are interactive computer-based systems that use data,
expert knowledge and models for supporting decision-makers in
organizations to solve semi-structured problems by
incorporating artificial intelligence techniques (Sarma,1994) [1]
• IDSS is a system that helps in decision-making through a
display of intelligent behavior that may include learning and
reasoning. Such learning and reasoning can be achieved through
implementing rule-based expert systems, knowledge-based
systems or neural network systems [2]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS).
An IDSS should behave like a human consultant, supporting
decision makers by:
gathering and analyzing evidence,
identifying and diagnosing problems,
proposing possible courses of action
evaluating the proposed actions.
The aim of the CI/AI techniques embedded in an IDSS is to
enable these tasks to be performed by a computer, while
emulating human capabilities as closely as possible.
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Important concepts/components
in designing IDSS
text and data analytics
text, data and process mining
expert and advisory systems
artificial neural networks
intelligent agents
natural languages processing
expert systems
fuzzy logic
rough sets
case based reasoning
genetic algorithms
support vector machines
knowledge sharing
machine learning
learning algorithms
data mining
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Expert System (ES). Definition
• A computer system that applies reasoning methodologies
to knowledge in a specific domain to render advice or
recommendations, much like a human expert.
An ES is a computer system that achieves a high level of
performance in task areas that, for human beings, require
years of special education and training [Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision
Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]
• Program de exploatare inteligentă a unei baze de date
caracteristice unui domeniu particular de aplicație [DEX].
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Expert and Expertise
• Expert: A human being who has developed a high level of
proficiency in making judgements in a specific, usually
narrow domain. [Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th
edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]
• Expertise: The set of capabilities that underlines the
performance of human experts, including extensive domain
knowledge, heuristic rules that simplify and improve
approaches to problem solving, metaknowledge and
metacognition, and compiles forms of behavior that afford
great economy in a skilled performance. [Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision
Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education Limited, 2014]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Human expert vs. expert systemAspect Human expert Expert system
Time availability working day any time
Geographical specific location wherever
Security not replaceable can be replaced
Perishable yes no
Performance variable consistent
Speed variable consistent an faster
Knowledge transfer difficult easy
Knowledge documentation difficult easy
Creativity high low
Adaptability high low
Knowledge type ”common sense”, technical technical
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Why ES was developed to replace experts?
• Can provide expertise at all times and in various
locations
• Automatically doing routine tasks that require an
expert.
• An expert will retire or leave
• An expert is expensive
• Expertise is needed also in a hostile environment
[https://newartificialintelligence.wordpress.com/tag/expert-systems-vs-human-expert/]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Expert System – key components
knowledge base – contains factual knowledge (problem formulation) and rules (how to solve problems)
IF Sun THEN wear sunscreen
inference engine- the brain of ES- way of using knowledge
user interface - menu, graphical interface, display
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Industry 4.0 and Decision
• Current trend of automation and data exchange in
manufacturing technologies.
• It includes o cyber-physical systems,
o the Internet of things,
o cloud computing,
o cognitive computing.
• Industry 4.0 is commonly referred to as the fourth industrial
revolution
Industry 4.0 (I4.0; I4)
[Industry 4.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Industry 4.0 (I4.0; I4)
Interconnection
The ability of machines, devices, sensors, and people to connect and
communicate with each other via the Internet of Things (IoT) or the
Internet of People (IoP)
Information transparency
The transparency provides operators with vast amounts of useful
information needed to make appropriate decisions.
Interconnectivity allows operators to collect immense amounts of data and
information from all points in the manufacturing process, thus aiding
functionality and identifying key areas that can benefit from innovation
and improvement.
There are four design principles in Industry 4.0
[Industry 4.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
The Evolution of Industry From 1.0 to 4.0
https://www.seekmomentum.com/blog/manufacturing/the-evolution-of-industry-from-1-to-4
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
UNIVERSITY 4.0: IS THE UK DOING ENOUGH TO PREPARE
STUDENTS FOR THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION?
http://blogs.brighton.ac.uk/thedigitalrevolution/2018/04/03/uk-
preparing-students-fourth-industrial-revolution/
The breakthrough of industries
that has come to form the
fourth industrial revolution
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Technical assistance
First, the ability of assistance systems to support humans by aggregating
and visualizing information comprehensively for making informed
decisions and solving urgent problems on short notice.
Second, the ability of cyber physical systems to physically support
humans by conducting a range of tasks that are unpleasant, too
exhausting, or unsafe for their human co-workers.
Decentralized decisions
The ability of cyber physical systems to make decisions on their own and
to perform their tasks as autonomously as possible.
Only in the case of exceptions, interferences, or conflicting goals, are
tasks delegated to a higher level.
[Industry 4.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Selective glossary - 1
business intelligence – a conceptual framework for decision support. It
combines architecture, databases (or data warehouse), analytical tools,
and applications [1]
data – raw facts that are meaningless by themselves (names, numbers)[1]
data analytics (analysis) – the process of examining data sets in order
to draw conclusions about the information they contain, increasingly
with the aid of specialized systems and software. [2]
- a process of inspecting, cleansing,
transforming, and modeling data with the goal of discovering useful
information, suggesting conclusions, and supporting decision-making [3]
data mining – a process that uses statistical, mathematical, artificial
intelligence, and machine learning techniques to extract and identify
useful information and subsequent knowledge from large dataset [1]
data science - is the interdisciplinary process of importing, cleaning,
manipulating, modeling, and visualizing data [4]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Selective glossary - 2
decision making – the action of selecting among alternatives [1]
forecasting – predicting the future [1]
Industry 4.0 - the current trend of automation and data exchange in
manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the
Internet of things, cloud computing and cognitive computing.
Industry 4.0 is commonly referred to as the fourth industrial
revolution [6]
intelligence – a degree of reasoning and learned behavior,
usually task or problem-solving oriented [1]
knowledge – understanding, awareness, or familiarity acquired
through education or experience; anything that has been learned,
perceived, discovered, inferred, or understood; the ability to use
information [1]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Selective glossary - 3
learning – a process of self-improvement where the new knowledge is
obtained through a process by using what is already known [1]
machine learning ML – the process by which a computer learns from
experience (e.g. using programs that can learn from historical cases) [1]
sub-field of Data Science;
metadata – data about data; in a data warehouse metadata describes
the content of a data warehouse and the manner of its use [1]
optimization – the process of identifying the best possible solution to a
problem [1]
pattern recognition – a technique of matching an external pattern to a
pattern stored in a computer’s memory (i.e. the process of classifying
objects into predetermined categories) [1]
predictive analysis – use of tools that help determine the probable
future outcome for an event or the likelihood of situation occurring [1]
Decision Support Systems – Basic Knowledge
Computational Intelligence in Complex Decision Systems G. Oltean
Selective glossary problem solving – a process in which one starts from an initial state
and proceeds to search through a problem space to identify a desired
goal [1]
time series - a set of regular time-ordered observations of a
quantitative characteristic of an individual or collective phenomenon
taken at successive, in most cases equidistant, periods/points of time.
Components: seasonal variation, trend variation, cyclical variation,
random variation[5].
[1] Turban, Sharda, Delen, Decision Support and Business Intelligence, 9th edition, Pearson Education
Limited, 2014
[2] http://searchdatamanagement.techtarget.com/definition/data-analytics
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_analysis
[4] https://www.datacamp.com/
[5] https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2708
[6] Industry 4.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_4.0