Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time...

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Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Transcript of Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time...

Page 1: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management

Todd Little and Kent McDonald

So many decisions, more time than we

thought

Page 2: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

By the Book Gaming Pools for Fools Tools for Pools By my Fantasy You Betcha

Page 3: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

The Problem(s)

Page 4: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

The Development Funnel

Evaluation andEvaluation andSelectionSelection

DevelopmentDevelopmentProjectsProjects

New ProductsNew Products/Services/Services

Page 5: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Real Funnels: Group B

Research

Customer

MarketingEngineering

StrategicPlanning

OEM

QualityControl

Cont.

Page 6: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Real Funnels: Group C

Central Research

Local Inputs

Board Heat

Product "A"

Competitor Boot

NIH Resistor(abrasion;

slows down the flow)

Tech Prod'n Log Sales

LAUNCH HERE

RELAUNCH HERE

1 1/2 – 2 years 2 – 3 hours

8 –12 months

leaky

Page 7: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

What can we do to get useful Portfolio Management?

Page 8: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Value Models?

Value Model

Business Value

CostsCosts

Benefits

How Do You Determine Costs?

How Do You Determine Benefits?

Page 9: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

A Value Model?

Page 10: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Line Change

Page 11: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Value Model!

Value Model

Considerations

Purpose

Considerations

Cos

tsC

osts

Ben

efits

What do we do?

When do we do it?

When do we

decide?

Page 12: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions

What do we do?

When do we do it?

When do we decide?

Page 13: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Real Options

Page 14: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Deciding Is Not a Once in a Lifetime Event

Knowledge Improves Business Conditions

Change Project Conditions

Change Do You Know Why

You Are Deciding Early?

Page 15: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Considerations

RisksRisks AssumptionsAssumptions ConstraintsConstraints

Page 16: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Risks – Types of Uncertainty

Cost/Time Uncertainty

General Market Uncertainty

Feature Acceptance Uncertainty

Page 17: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Purpose-Based Alignment

MarketDifferentiating

High

Low

Mission CriticalLow High

Differentiating

ParityWho Cares?

Partner

Purpose Does Not Equal PriorityPurpose Does Not Equal Priority

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Example: Health InsurancePurpose Alignment

MarketDifferentiating

High

Low

Mission CriticalLow High

PharmacyDental

DisabilityInsurance

Healthcare analytics

Member Medical Home

Claims ProcessingEnrollment

Customer Service

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Example: Apple

MarketDifferentiating

High

Low

Mission CriticalLow High

MS OfficeATTIntel

Peripherals

New Product Design User ExperienceContent Distribution

Software

Manufacturing

Page 20: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

By the Book GamingProduct Line 2008

Head Count

2008 Revenue

($Thousands)

2009 Revenue Target

($Thousands)

2010Revenue Target

($Thousands)

Pools for Fools

8 8,000 12,000 18,000

Be My Fantasy

8 0 4,000 6,000

Tools for Pools

8 0 0 0

You Betcha

8 2,000 4,000 6,000

Total 32 10,000 20,000 30,000

Page 21: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Simulation Get into teams Choose a representative to the Portfolio Team Prepare your case (25 minutes) Pitch your case (20 minutes) Break (finalize investment) Simulate 2009 (20 minutes) Revisit Investment Options (20 minutes) Simulate 2010 (20 minutes) Debrief (30 minutes)

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Iteration 1

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Iteration 2

Page 24: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Debrief/Retrospective

Page 25: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Buy the Book:Stand Back and Deliver

New book by Pixton, Nickolaisen, Little, and McDonald

Published by Addison Wesley in Early 2009

Drafts:

www.accelinnova.com /booklogin.php

Page 26: Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought.

Contact

Todd Little www.toddlittleweb.com 713-504-5365 [email protected]

Kent J McDonald: www.knowledgebridgepartners.com www.accelinnova.com 515.229.6929 [email protected]